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VRA Letter: Solid December Jobs Report; The Recession Will to Wait (and wait, and wait). Strength of the US Consumer Will Continue to Power the Economy and Markets Higher.

Good Friday morning. This morning we got the December jobs report and surprise, surprise, the long-predicted recession in the US will continue to have to wait. Regardless of what you might hear from mainstream economists and Fed t ...

Posted On January 05, 20243 MIN Read
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Good Friday morning. This morning we got the December jobs report and surprise, surprise, the long-predicted recession in the US will continue to have to wait. Regardless of what you might hear from mainstream economists and Fed talking heads, know this; consumers continue to benefit greatly from a rock-solid US economy.

Estimates for December payrolls were for 175,000 new jobs but instead we got another beat, with 216,000 jobs created. The unemployment rate came in at 3.7% (unchanged) vs estimates of 3.8%. While the prior two months saw negative revisions totalling 71,000 jobs, here’s the biggie from this report for consumers; wage growth continues to power ahead, with 4.1% y/y wage growth vs estimates of 3.9%.

This wasn’t a “hot” jobs report but it was solid. On the news, the odds of a March rate cut fell to 50/50 (from the 70% range).

Equity futures fell 150 points (Dow) on the news but as I write the markets have clawed back most of those losses. Gold was hit $23/oz on the...

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