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Kip Herriage on Fox Business with Charles Payne – March 5, 2024

Charles Payne, of Fox Business, interviews Kip Herriage of Vertical Research Advisory, who shares his bullish outlook on the market and offers advice for both seasoned investors and skeptics. Join us as we explore the parallels be ...

Posted On March 14, 2024-
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About This Episode

Charles Payne, of Fox Business, interviews Kip Herriage of Vertical Research Advisory, who shares his bullish outlook on the market and offers advice for both seasoned investors and skeptics. Join us as we explore the parallels between the current market and the tech rally of the 1990s, the potential of cryptocurrencies, and the strategy for small-cap investments in this exciting and dynamic market landscape.

Transcript

My next guest told us that it was going to be the start of the roaring 2020s. He told us this last year, and, well, he points to several reasons why this party is just getting started. All time highs in the stock market, home prices, equity on homes, consumers, net worth. Joining me now, vertical research advisory management partner Kip Herridge. And, Kip, there’s always this narrative, though, on Wall street, we kind of touched on it in a block that whenever we get to all time highs. Right? And of course, we do know that all time highs typically, or the market typically, goes in stairstep fashion and then it collapses in elevator fashion. And so beware, because when it goes down, it’s going to go down a lot faster than it went up. What are you telling folks who don’t want to get involved in this market? What are you telling the skeptics?

We hear that a lot, Charles, thank you for having me back on today. We hear that a lot. We had three bear markets in five years beginning in 2018. Unprecedented, never happened before. The average stock lost 46% of its value. People are shell shocked still to this day. So we hear that a lot. What we’re telling people is this is the new bull market of size and scope.

[00:01:03]:
It’s going to last several years. It’s a structural bull market based on the strength of the economy, strength of the consumer, and it’s got a long way to go. Buy the dip will continue to be the smartest of smart money strategies.

So I know that the centerpiece of your excitement is the innovation revolution. And I heard that this was, we kind of heard something similar during the pandemic. Remember when these tech stocks were rallying? They said everything was pulled five years ahead, and it was a wonderful rally. Except in 2022, all these stocks got hammered. So what’s distinctively different about now and back then.

I draw a parallel to 95 to 2000. During that, we weren’t ready for that. We didn’t know what was hitting us. It just started going parabolic. I think that prepared us for now. These companies have grown up. Tech has grown up. The innovation revolution is about.

[00:01:53]:
Take a look at what’s happening around us. Cryptocurrencies, the blockchain, fractional ownership, tokenization, all of these things are new topics to people. But it’s going to be incredible. We think what’s going to happen in the years to come, space exploration again, innovation throughout the economy, the gig economy. So we think that earnings are going to continue, of course, AI, which everybody’s talking about, we think earnings are the key story here. That’s what’s going to drive things. That’s what we think makes this a different setup than years past.

So I know that you’re still bullish. You started off the segment saying bye to dip, but in your note, you did also say, quote, that the wrong people are turning bullish. Now, it sounds a little elitist, though. Who are the wrong people? Who are the people that are getting in that are making you a little nervous?

Well, it’s the perma bears. That’s who I’m talking about, really. And it is retail. Look, the fear of greed is X is an extreme greed. This is typically where we want to use discipline, and that’s what we’re telling people. If you’re long and strong, stay long and strong. But if you’re putting new money in this market, this is a time you should use some caution, but keep buying the dips. Reminder, folks, in the 95 to 2000 melt up, this is a very similar market to that.

[00:03:05]:
We believe we had four corrections of more than ten to 20% and a bear market of 32% right towards the end of that. Right. And then the final big surge. So use these dips to add to positions, but don’t chase here.

What year is it? That’s the parallel you’re using. Is it 95? 96. What year is it right now?

96

You’re also a bitcoin bull. And you point to this recent run up that saying that it goes back to what you just talked about. The excitement over bitcoin is nowhere near what it was in 2021, 2022, and those other prior rallies are not even close, despite the fact this has been very impressive. But you like that, though. You like that there’s not a whole lot of folks jumping in on the bandwagon right now.

Exactly. The grievance of the stock market does not exist in bitcoin is incredible. We do polls. I do Twitter polls all the time. 70% of people that follow me, and they know that I’ve been a bitcoin bull since 2017. They know that we’ve been right about this move. We recommended it at 2000. They still hate it.

[00:04:10]:
They don’t trust it. And so that’s really bullish from a sentiment point of view. Ed Snowden did a poll. He had hundreds of thousands of votes. Only 40% said they owned it. So we think that’s a big buy signal.

Hey, I got 30 seconds, but I can’t let you go without talking about how you’re saying a good way to play the small caps would be the three times Russell 2000 ETF symbol is TNA. That means it goes up at three times the rate of the Russell, but also will go down at three times. You got to really be. I mean, you’re going for a grand slam here, my man.

We are trend followers, and we’re market timers, and that’s what we do when you find a hot trend. We went aggressively long small caps last October. We intend to ride this for at least another year. We think this group is going to be at 40% this year. I think I said that last time I was on your show. And we’re going to stay long. This group, thick or thin, buy pullbacks.

[00:05:00]:
All right, Kip, thank you very much, my friend. Appreciate it. All right, folks, coming up, it’s a never.

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Time Stamps

00:00 Market at all-time highs, caution for skeptics.
03:28 Bitcoin bull praises current low market excitement.

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