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VRA Letter: No Fed Rate Cut…So What? We’re (still) Turning Japanese. NVDA and the Birth of a New Industrial Revolution. Latest Bitcoin Shakeout.

Good Tuesday morning. The March Fed meeting kicks off today, with FOMC statement and Powell presser tomorrow afternoon. From the start of ‘24 we’ve said the Fed would cut rates at the March meeting. That’s not going to hap ...

Posted On March 19, 20246 MIN Read
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Good Tuesday morning. The March Fed meeting kicks off today, with FOMC statement and Powell presser tomorrow afternoon. From the start of ‘24 we’ve said the Fed would cut rates at the March meeting. That’s not going to happen tomorrow….the US economy is simply too strong. The question is; does it even matter, if this is the next 1995-2000 melt-up...as we’ve been forecasting. 

The average 10-year yield during the 1995 to 2000 bull market was >6% (below) vs 4.3% today. 

• 1995: 6.57%
• 1996: 6.44%
• 1997: 6.35%
• 1998: 5.26%
• 1999: 5.65%
• 2000: 6.03%

VRA Bottom Line: Fed rate cuts are coming, along with reductions in QT. Just know that a lack of rate cuts is not a risk-off event for equities, as we’ve entered a melt-up period similar to dot-com, based on the innovation/AI revolution that’s underway today. As much as anything, we expect “gravity” to continue to “ force US rates lower. 

Consider; if you’re a global institution/corporation of size, what would you rathe...

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