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VRA Letter: It’s Fed Day. When Will the Fed Start Telegraphing Rate Cuts? All-Time Highs; Textbook (early) Bull Market Action. Gold and Miners; Buy This Dip.

Good Wednesday morning. Today is "Fed Day”. At 2PM EST we’ll get the FOMC statement, followed by J Powells presser at 2:30 EST. There will be no rate hike or cut today. Instead, we’ll be watching/listening for changes to the ...

Posted On December 13, 20236 MIN Read
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Good Wednesday morning. Today is "Fed Day”. At 2PM EST we’ll get the FOMC statement, followed by J Powells presser at 2:30 EST.

There will be no rate hike or cut today. Instead, we’ll be watching/listening for changes to the Fed’s last statement, their infamous dot plot and as always, clues from Powell during his Q&A session. Markets are pricing in a record 100 basis points of easing, or 4 rate cuts, in 2024. Remarkably, that’s double the easing of the Fed's latest dot plot, for all of 2024.

While it’s unlikely that Powell will come across as highly dovish, the time is nearing for Powell and his band of merry money-printers to start making the pivot and preparing the markets for rate cuts next year. 

How do we know this? The chart of 10-year yields below makes clear that Fed front-running is already underway, as yields have plummeted from 5% in late October to just 4.16% this AM. A waterfall collapse like the one below speak volumes, in technical analysis. Still, the 10 ye...

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