Good Monday morning. We have an important week ahead for economic data, with the focus on Wednesdays FOMC statement followed by Powells presser.

Here’s whats on tap for the week:

- CPI/Core CPI (Nov.) - Tuesday

- PPI/Core PPI (Nov.) - Wednesday

- FOMC interest-rate decision - Wednesday

- Fed Chair Powells presser - Wednesday

- U.S. retail sales (Nov.) - Friday

Based on futures pricing data, there is an 86% probability the Fed will cut rates by its May ‘24 meeting and a 99% probability of rate cuts by its Sept ‘24 meeting, which is the last meeting before Election Day.

Ed Yardeni made an aggressive call over the weekend and believes that Powell will say “fed funds are well into restrictive territory”, a clear implication that the Fed is done raising rates and that this will be bullish for stocks and bonds.

Yardeni: 

Yardeni Also Raises his Forecasts for Equities into Year-End 2025

In Q4 2022, ...