Good Monday morning. Hoping everyone in the states had a good Thanksgiving.

Wall Street is coming off the fourth straight winning week for all three major averages, as stocks have rallied sharply from the 5% peak in 10-year year yields from late October (4.44% this AM), as disinflation continues to build and as the US dollar resumes its long term bear market.

Yes, the economy appears to be weakening and the rally has come despite warnings from some retailers that consumer spending is weakening. Weak spending data would suggest that the Feds rate hikes are finally starting to weigh on the broader economy. Its important to remember that this was, in fact, one of their goals from 11 straight rate hikes, post March 2022.

However, the early read on holiday spending is actually solid, as Black Friday shoppers spent a record $9.8 billion in US online sales, up 7.5% from last year.

The week ahead is also a busy one for economic indicators and Fed commentary. Today we get new home s...