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VRA Letter: All-time Highs in Semis Flashing Bull Market Buy Signals. 163% Gains in SOXL. The Feds Hand Will Soon Be Forced. Millennials Powering the Housing Market & Economy.

Good Wednesday morning. Odd trading day yesterday as the semis (SMH) hit another ATH while the broad markets fell .37% (S&P 500) featuring an 85.7% down volume day in NYSE. As we’ve focused on from the 10/13/22 bear market l ...

Posted On January 17, 20244 MIN Read
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Good Wednesday morning. Odd trading day yesterday as the semis (SMH) hit another ATH while the broad markets fell .37% (S&P 500) featuring an 85.7% down volume day in NYSE.

As we’ve focused on from the 10/13/22 bear market lows, the semis continue to be our most important leading indicator and market tell.

We see it, once again, in this relative strength chart of the semis to S&P 500. From the birth of QE in 2008, the semis have led the markets (in both directions). The semis continue to flash bull market buy signals.

We own and recommend SOXL (3 x Semi ETF), with current gains of 163%. 

The current “buy the dip” opportunity is coming to us via renewed weakness in the bond market, as 10 year yields have jumped over the last 3 weeks from 3.8% to this mornings 4.1%. 

Our view remains unchanged; the economy remains strong, meaning that it is unlikely we will have the 6-7 rate cuts from the Fed this year. We look for 3-4 cuts, instead.
We would rather have...

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