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VRA Investing Podcast: Rate Cuts Are Nearing; Don’t Fight the Tape, Don’t Fight the Fed – Kip Herriage – May 09, 2024

In today's episode, Kip takes a deep dive into the latest from the Federal Reserve an global central banks, and what their actions mean for the stock market going forward. He also covers another strong day of action for our market ...

Posted On May 09, 2024Episode 1381
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About This Episode

In today's episode, Kip takes a deep dive into the latest from the Federal Reserve an global central banks, and what their actions mean for the stock market going forward. He also covers another strong day of action for our markets as our major indexes look to be on the verge of a big move higher. Tune into today's podcast to see what the VRA Investing System is telling us looking forward.

Transcript

Don’t look back because the market is closed. Good Thursday afternoon, everyone. Kip Herriage here with the daily VRA investing podcast. Hope you had a good day today. Very good day for our markets today. Right. You pay attention to this. I’m sure you did finish at the highs today.

It’s a good smart money hour. It’s an important trading point to recognize. I think it’s one that’s worked for us for a long time. I say the open is for amateurs, the closes for professionals, and whether it’s truth or not, I don’t know. But I do know that paying attention to the last hour or two of trading makes a lot of sense. And I think we’ve got some other signs here that we’ve got a really big move higher coming here. First of all, Dow Jones been up seven straight days. The golf clap for the Dow Jones.

That’s fantastic. It’s the longest streak in some time. Actually. I saw it, I think since November. I think is what I saw today. It doesn’t really mean much, but hey, it’s a positive. And I think, again, we’ve got a lot of signs here we’ll talk about in a second. For a combination of lower rates and higher stocks.

[00:01:08]:
It’s been a long time since I’ve said these words and I get to say them again. I wrote it up this morning. Don’t fight the tape, don’t fight the Fed. Because, folks, that is a powerful adage that actually works. And like seller main goal a, this one actually has held up over the test of time. And look what’s happening this morning we found out the bank of England was messaging man their entire central bank platform today was about rate cuts in June. They didn’t say we’re going to cut in June, but all the betting, the odds are heavily skewed, like 80% that way. And seeing all the right buzzwords, look, they’ve got clear disinflation taking even more so than we have here.

Although we have disinflation in the US. It’s not as pronounced as it’s been in Europe, but it’s very pronounced in Europe. So they’re going to be cutting, by the way, it’s interesting. The bank of England, their rates are exactly as ours, five and a quarter to five and a half on the, our Fed funds rate. Right. That’s interesting because Germany, which of course is the largest economy in Europe, most important economy in Europe, of course. Well, I won’t get off into that rabbit hole, but their ten year, only 2.5 or 2.4% now, right. Our Fed funds rates are five and a half percent on the high end here, here, and for bank of England.

[00:02:33]:
But in Germany, the ten year yield is 2.4 something percent. So the market always tells you what’s going to happen next. The markets are telling us that rates are about to start plummeting, I believe plummeting lower. I really do. Look, we have a strong economy. That was the four races some degree, but there is really no other reason the rates should be as high as they are. There is absolutely no reason to get a mortgage should cost you over 7%. So all of this is going to start changing.

I’m going to talk about a couple of reasons why. But first of all, I’m going to give you my favorite reason. And now you got to listen to me a little bit here. See if you hear a little sarcasm in my voice. Because there’s no way the Federal Reserve would goose the economy and the markets into November to help their guy win. They would just never, ever, ever do that. Because, of course, the state is above rigging things, aren’t they? They’re above fixing things. There’s just no way that our elections are rigged.

[00:03:38]:
There’s no way that Trump do I want to go down this, down this rabbit hole? Oh, why not? This is probably the last time I ever do this. Let’s do it one more time, because I think it’s hard to argue with this logic. True or not, you’ll be able to prove it, I’m sure. Hard to argue with the logic I’m about to give you. Trump was selected as president not by the voters, but by the powers that be. How do I think I know that? What was the most, what’s the biggest thing that came out of a Trump presidency? The pandemic. It was the pandemic. And there’s just no way that red states in this country, probably a lot of blue states as well, but certainly not the red states with red governors.

There’s absolutely no way you can convince me the red states would have agreed to lock down their states over a cold flu. With Hillary Rodham Clinton as president, there’s no way you can convince me that that ever would have happened. So it had to be Trump to launch the pandemic. It had to be Trump for Operation Warp Speed, because who would ever have gotten behind a Hillary jab? Are you kidding me? So it had to be Trump because red states agreed to the lockdown, because it was his recommendation. And it was, you know, we can. I know. Team Trump likes to debate that. It’s just not debatable.

[00:05:09]:
He’s just on tape, and he’s on tape saying it himself, that this was his decision and that red governors that disagree with him would have to understand this is a presidential authority. It’s not, it’s not a decision for governors to make. So anyway, move past that. And again, there’s no way that we would have taken a Hillary jab. Okay? So it had to be Trump for those reasons. Now, here’s why it had to be Biden. Here’s why Biden had to be president to follow because we never have had the mandates unless it was by Trump would, that’s the one thing Trump would never have agreed. Would never have agreed to mandate these poison jabs.

He would have done it. I’m convinced of this. And it had to be Biden because, of course, Biden will do, you know, whatever he’s told to do. So there you have it. So we’ll see. Does that mean all elections are rigged? I don’t know. But look, I’m a little older now, and I think after voting in every election since I was 18 years old, when I voted for Jimmy Carter in my first, yes, I know, huge Reagan fan, voted for Carter. I was young.

[00:06:16]:
What I know, right? The old saying, if you’re 29, a liberal, you’ve got no heart, 49, conservative, got no brain. I’ve kind of gone by that. But I voted in every election since I was 18. I think I’ve earned the right to say whether or not I believe elections are rigged. And I believe they are rigged. Maybe not all of them. Maybe they just chose to rig these two. But I know that Biden was placed in office because we all know that, because that election was rigged.

Trump, I know that’s an outlier call. I’m probably the only person saying that. But I think the evidence points pretty clearly to that because they had to get the pandemic launched for a lot of reasons we won’t talk about today, but anyway, so we’ll see what happens this time. But what I do believe is that the Federal Reserve is not above, is not above goosing the markets and the economy into November to help their guy win, to help their team win. Whether or not that works or not, we’ll see. But again, I think, look, our base case, as you know, we’ve been bullish for a long time. So it’s not like we’re saying we’re bullish because we think the Federal Reserve is going to melt the markets up and make rates go lower. Right.

[00:07:32]:
But again, don’t fight the state, don’t fight the Fed. I’m not saying that. I’m just saying this is another reason why we’re bullish. It’s another reason to be bullish because, yeah, I don’t trust them at all. And Jay Powell seemed way, way too confident at the last press conference. He knew that employment report from last Friday was going to be weak. He knew it. And that explained it.

We all knew watching. There’s something different about this guy today. He is way too confident and he’s just slopping off these questions. He’s getting like they’re no big deal. I’ve watched every presser he’s ever done since he’s been fed chair since 2018. Tyler’s a resident dead watcher. We both saw the same thing. This is a very different j pal.

So bottom line, look, we’re bullish. If you’re not long, you are wrong. And I know that sounds like a very presumptive thing to say, but again, we’ve been bullish for a long time. All we see are more reasons to be more bullish. I’m not sure I’m bullish enough if I’m being honest. And again, the point being, keep buying dips. Really, I think what’s going to be most important going forward is our sector analysis work. I think sector analysis is really going to be important.

[00:08:48]:
And to that end, we actually announce this today in our very letter. We’re taking a more proactive approach. It’s really a more active trading approach with our ets. So we do a lot of work in ETF’s using the VR investing system. That’s going to be our folks. You’ll see it pretty quick when we hit extreme robot on the very investing system. We’re going to be taking profits in our ETF’s. This won’t apply to our growth stocks, to our ten baggers.

That won’t impact them at all. But it applies to, especially to the leveraged ETF’s that we use. We’re going to be more active in trading these. And I think it’s something that everyone’s going to enjoy. Look, every time you sell something, you got to pay that because your tax basis. So that’s one reason not to be more active. But it’s not a good enough reason. The better reason is this a good trading market and we want to make sure and take advantage of that.

[00:09:42]:
And the very investing system, if you’ve noticed, it’s pretty good at calling tops and bottoms for these sectors that we follow. So that’s what we’re going to do going forward as far as the market. Again, Boe today signaling very clearly that they’re going to have a rate cut in June. By the way, that’s what the ECB is also signaling. So we’re going to get rate cuts in June for the bank of England and European Central bank. Why does that matter? Us. Because since the birth of quantitative easing, all of these european central banks and our central bank have acted in unison. They’ve all acted very, very, very closely coordinated.

And so that’s going to continue to be the case. So we’re going to have a rate cut here pretty soon. The ten year yield now, if you’ve noticed, is down from just what, two weeks ago, 4.7%. Now it’s down to 4.44%. I think those yields will continue to fall. The market now is telling you pretty clearly what’s about to happen. Again. Don’t fight the tape, don’t fight the Fed.

[00:10:41]:
With the Fed about to cut, this is a really powerful old school market adage that works. I think it was Marty Zweig, I believe that first came up with, don’t fight the tape, don’t fight the Fed. I think it was Zweig before I even got into business. But it’s a great adage, of course, and it’s held up, as I say. The other thing, I’m going to touch on this for a second because I think it is important, again, think about how important the direction of interest rates and inflation. But I think inflation, as we’re about to find out, is really going to start ratcheting down again. That’s happening in Europe, it’s happened in China. It’s coming this way.

We’re going to continue to have less inflation here, or disinflation. But the bigger story has been what’s, what’s, what’s the Fed going to do with rates? Okay, I think, I think we’ve established, I feel very confident in saying that. We have established that the Fed is going to start cutting rates. Our view has been from the beginning of the year, we’ve said two to three rate cuts. We’ve never changed our position, even as people. Then all of a sudden, in February, March, people were saying, oh, they’re going to have six rate cuts. You know, then it went to, no, we’re not have any rate cuts. Matter of fact, they’re going to hike rates.

[00:11:53]:
I mean, you know, it’s the insanity that you can glean from watching the financial mainstream media will drive you a little crazy, which is why I recommend you do not watch it, at least not when you’re making an investment decision, because again, it’s an emotional thing and it just screwed me up. I know we used to have it on the office all day long. Financing, I just can’t, I don’t need that. I don’t need those competing voices in my head. You know, we rely on our research and our work, plus the work of those that we trust the most. You know, I mean, we’ve got great, really great experts that are so much smarter than me that we lean on Ed Hyman, right, the economist at Evercore. Also at Evercore, rich Ross, the technician there. Fantastic work they do.

When we’re in agreement, when Tyler and I are in agreement with Rich Ross is a quant at Evercore, I gotta tell you, our confidence level skyrocket. So we tend to see things the same. Not always, but we tend to see things the same way. And again, that’s, that’s, that helps me anyway. And there are others. This new guy we’re following, Brian Rich, who writes for Forbes, and he’s got his own investment newsletter. This guy is a, I told Tyler the other day, and I’ve never said this publicly, but I’ll say it to you now, Brian Rich is the only guy that intimidates me from a research and writing point of view, because he gets it, his left brain and right brain, and he knows how to write. This guy is dangerous.

[00:13:25]:
If I hate honest, this guy is dangerous to my business. But I love the guy I’m going to have on a podcast here. He and I’ve gotten to know each other a little bit through a Twitter and direct messaging. But he is fantastic and his work is just exceptional. He operates on a level that I’m not really familiar with, to tell you the truth. But I think our strength is sector analysis and stock picking growth stocks. He does different kind of things that we do. But again, it’s good to have people like this that you can go to and read their research.

And so we have a stable of five, six of these and that’s about it, really. And then we use the bureau investing system and in modern toddlers analysis, that’s really it. But again, tomorrow I’m going to feature this chart. If you are a letter, because you talk about the market as a discounting mechanism. If you see, pull up a chart of XLU. I tweeted this out a few minutes ago, XLU, the utility ETF has gone parabolic all right, it’s gone. I typically don’t follow utilities because, I mean, they’re regulated. It’s like investing in Europe.

[00:14:30]:
Why would you want to do it? It’s socialist. It’s regulated. That’s why. They consistently underperform us markets and will continue to. And while we have to fight that with every breath we have, just, if you like, a free market. But utility stocks have gone parabolic. Now, why would that be the case? Yes, Tyler tested on this the other day. Yes, the electrification of America is a major investable story, but I don’t know how to invest in that through the utilities.

Again, they’re highly regulated, but these stocks are going haywire. So. Yeah, look, I think Kathie Wood’s research team on this is. Right. I think it’s that within five, six, seven years, 70% of all cars sold will be EV’s. All new cars sold will be EV’s. That is where we’re going. So to do that, we’re going to have to have.

Our electrical grid is a shambles. So that’s got to major investments into that. And so I know there’s a lot of private investment lining up for that, and maybe that’s the reason utilities are going up, because so much money is actually flowing into them. That makes sense, right? I think the bigger reason, at least one of the biggest reasons, and as far as back to the electrification of the country, EV’s, by the way, the other side of that story. And look, I’m not really a huge fan of EV’s. As much as I like Tesla Musk, I don’t own an EV. I want to buy a cybertruck. But I only drive cars that are at least 30 years old.

[00:15:58]:
So that’s a problem for me. I have to wait 30 years to get one. No, the thing with EV’s, though, is really as it pleases Tesla and the industry from a broader perspective, is that research is taking place in battery life and battery storage. That’s where the real change, that’s part of this innovation revolution, that’s that battery storage is a big part of what’s going on. Everybody knows it’s coming. You don’t throw trillions of dollars into one specific part of an economy and not come up with amazing outcomes from that. I mean, if it was all government spending, I’d say yes. This is private money, though.

This is different. Okay. So, yeah, I think the battery life is going to get crazy. You know, where you build, go 800 to 1000 miles on a single charge that’s coming. We’re already about what, 300, 5400 with some cars that’s coming, that’s going to be a game changer. And then also you, you’ll be able to, you know, you’ll be able to charge it and cross charge you charge your car and then you’ll be able to use that electricity for your home as well. So you really drive down costs. Again, this is part of the innovation revolution and disruption that brings down prices of everything.

[00:17:12]:
This is where that real disinflation comes from. That’s going to help consumers at the bottom line. This is all coming. And so again, it’s another bigger reason the markets are going up, because they reckon the markets always know, always smarter than all of us. They always know what’s going to happen six months, a year, two, three years in advance. They always sniff it out, but typically it’s six months to nine months, really. But again, so that’s the EV story. And that’s why I do believe in, say, five to seven years, 70% or so of all new cars sold will be EV’s.

But the real reason I think that utility stocks are going up now is they’re sniffing out these rate cuts. They’re sniffing out lower rates because again, we touch on this pretty much every day because we have no other comment to make about utility stocks. To be honest with you, utility companies are the largest borrowers of money in the country, okay? What they do is very capital intensive and regulated. They go to the markets, etcetera, pretty much a daily basis to borrow money. And so when utility stocks get this red hot, that’s telegraphing something, right? That’s discounting something. And I think it’s instead of the electrification of the country, again, I think it’s part of it, but I think the bigger story is they’re sniffing out rate cuts. And guess what else is sniffing out rate cuts. I wrote this up today, talking about pretty good timing.

[00:18:30]:
I’m a horrible day trader, but I think we got this one right today. This morning we did a focus on precious metals and miners. The topic was the next leg of the bull market begins. Well, of course, I had no idea, no way to know at the time that the GDX, the miner ETF today was going to be up. Where did it close up today? GDF closed up 3.6%. That’s a hell of a day for GDX. Right. What was the volume here? Hadn’t checked that yet.

Yeah. Still nothing. I mean, 29 million shares, that’s just nothing. It’s, it’s more active than it has been. But I’ll repeat, until the miners, until GDX specifically starts trading, 50, 67, 70 million shares a day, this bull market hasn’t really even begun yet. Right, for the miners. But, folks, it has begun, hasn’t it? It has begun, hasn’t it? Because look at what these stocks have done. We folks, again, focus on this this morning.

[00:19:25]:
For the end of February, GDX is up 35%. I know this because we’ve been pounding the table on it since the end of February when it, when it bottomed. We’re in NGT, which is the two time leverage, GTF, up 74% since the end of February. But again, this move’s just getting started. But also gold. And the miners also know it’s coming because gold is also great at sniffing out lower rates, rate cuts, the next round of QE, because that’s coming. It may be years off, but we all know that quantitative easing is here to stay. And so I don’t know, you know, it may be, you know, five, six, seven years before we have more QE, but who knows? But first time we have some banks go under, first time we have a regional bank crisis, we’ll have QE the very next day.

That much you can, you can bet on that because that’s the way it works. Of course, you can’t have banks going under. That’s a terrible reflection on the Federal Reserve because they are the supervisory power and agents for these banks. So they have to make sure they don’t go under, because then somebody would blame Jay Powell. He does not like to be blamed. He’s too happy being confident and comfortable because he knows what’s coming goosey in the market into November. But anyway, the gold and the miners, I believe, are sniffing out what’s coming. Lower dollar rate cuts, lower rates and the next round of QE ultimately.

[00:20:46]:
So we have. Gold is telegraphing this, you got utility stocks telegraphing this. And there’s one more I’m just going to point out now. It’s an outlier, admittedly, but I happen to follow some people on Twitter that have been really running their mouth about rates. We’re going to 5% plus in the ten year. We’re going higher from there. You see these permit bearers say rates ten years going to 6%, 7%. It’s going to hold, things going to crash.

This is it. This is the next. 2008 is just around the corner, right? I mean, who listens to these people? But there are some people that are fairly well known and you’ll see, I’m not going to dox anybody here. I happen to go on tv every now and then. I wouldn’t want somebody do it to me. But I’m just making the point that I believe all the wrong people are saying the market’s going lower and that rates are going higher. All the wrong people are saying that. And again, I’m telling you, this works when you get wrong way Runway.

[00:21:47]:
People like Jim Cramer, and he’s not the one. I don’t know what he’s saying right now, but when you get the wrong people, because they’re consistently wrong. Right. It’s almost like, it’s almost like they’re doing it on purpose and they’re really actually playing 40 chess. It means a right. They’re right on all these trades, but they’re putting out the wrong side to signal that it should be bought. Does that make sense? I don’t think that’s what’s happening, by the way, because everybody’s got an ego. No one wants to be known as the guy that’s wrong 9% of the time.

But the point being is these same people that are wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong about the direction of rates and stocks are now saying vociferously, they’re saying rates are going higher and the market’s going lower. So I think we have a lot of things that add up that tell us very confidently that, again, bank of England, ECB, they’re both cutting. We have this coordination that’s been in place since the launch of QE. So, anyway, I’ll move on. I think I pounded the table on this topic, but it’s an important topic. It’s one of the major reasons we’re so bullish in the short term, longer term, you know the reasons we’re bullish. Innovation, revolution, generational bull market, roaring 2020s, folks, this is all happening. It’s all happening.

[00:22:57]:
Right? And so if it stops happening, we’ll tell you. But look at all the signs. Did you see the crowd that was at Warren Buffett’s annual meeting? Oh, my God, was like 80,000 people there. These things don’t happen unless you’re in the roaring 2020s. Now, he always draws a big crowd, but that, that was, that was even big for Warren. Good for him. And way to go, Warren. Hey, we maybe one of these days we’ll be so lucky to compare it, be compared to him in just one sentence would be nice.

But again, I think the signs are everywhere when the roaring 2020. So we should do an update just on all the signs we see happening, you know, in the sports world. NBA is about to sign a new television contract, and they’re in negotiations now. I think it’s one of the reasons we’re having such a good playoff. I think they really want to get television ratings up. They’ve been in the toilet since LeBron James ruined the league, and I think they really want to get these ratings up. LeBron’s out, right? Who else is out? All these old guys, right? All the Clippers, all these complainers, they’re all out. And so you got the young, hungry guys that are in.

[00:24:04]:
We’re seeing the best basketball. I’m a big basketball fan. I played basketball growing up, when it won two state championships in high school, coached my son AU basketball. Both my boys, actually. Tyler just was better at baseball than basketball. Matter of fact, he was a lot better at baseball than basketball. Sam, though, was a good basketball player, and so I got to coach him in AU basketball for a number of years. It’s just, it was, I miss it.

It was a fantastic time, but I love NBA basketball, but I haven’t liked it for a long time. I really haven’t barely watched it for a long time. But that’s all changed now. This is the best basketball I’ve seen NBA wise in 20 years, right? These young players are playing hard. The referees have swallowed their whistles. They’re not making a foul call every 2 seconds. So again, they’re letting the play. It’s physical.

They’re going at it. These young guns are the future of the league. And again, the point being they want to get the best tv. I think they’re going to get it. It’s going to be head spinning the amount of money they get. Of course, NFL, look what’s happening overseas. Soccer has never been bigger. Look at Saudi Arabia with their own soccer league.

[00:25:11]:
They’re bringing over huge stars to play there. Saudi Arabia for soccer. And of course, they also have the live golf tour, which is now buried, the PGA Tour, because they realized, hey, we’ve got the money. We can pay these athletes. We’ll make a name for ourselves inside of a month. And they did. So, like it or not, the point being, the world is awash in liquidity and money. Look at bitcoin.

Look at cryptocurrencies. How many trillions of dollars have come out of what would have been in the equity markets into cryptocurrency markets without having a crash take place in the US? That’s how much the world is awash in money. If that money, if cryptocurrencies never existed. If that money was in the stock market, the Dow Jones would be 100,000 now. So look, this is all part of the bigger theme of roaring two thousand twenty s. The signs are everywhere. And again, that’s another base case for us as far as being short, medium, long term bullish. Okay, let’s move on from that.

[00:26:12]:
Again, we’ve been pounding the table on energy stocks. Love that group. Pounding the table. Of course, on as covered a minute ago with precious metals and miners. That bull market is just getting started. It’s going to be a big one, folks, going to be a big one. And then, of course, we’ve loved semiconductors and tech for a while. So we have a very eclectic sounding portfolio, don’t we? We have like our own hedge fund, and that’s really what we do.

This is our family office. This is our money, is how tyler I manage, certainly how I manage my money are the investments that we recommend. So the Vray portfolio, that’s my portfolio. Right? And so people are just kind of tag teaming me and investing. If they agree, they’ll buy the stocks and ETF’s that I recommend. That’s our approach here. And it really is how I believe a proper hedge fund should be run. Just take your favorite pieces of the markets, your favorite sectors, right, and put it all together, and then let’s go beat Mister market.

Because he’s a son of a bitch. Mister market has one primary objective, to bury us. Mister Market wants to get everybody on one side of the market and then crush them. This is why you never want to be with the majority. You always want to be a contrarian. Another reason we’re so incredibly confident in our call, because so few people have been bullish. That’s changing now, you know, more and more becoming bullish. But we’re still so far away.

[00:27:28]:
Tyler just reminded me the fear of greed index is still in fear territory. It’s still, it’s. We’re a percent away from all time highs and these sentiment surveys are still flashing fear readings. I mean, this, it’s crazy, right? Number one. But number two, it’s exactly what you want, right? That’s. As a contrarian, that’s exactly what we want to see. So as long as the semis keep leading. We shared that chart this morning.

The semi has been leading the market higher from the birth of this bull market in October 2022. Again, these are the classic signs that we look for short term and then we get the longer term ones to look for as well. And our kind of a long term base case. All right. All right, let’s get to the internals today. Again, very good internals today. Basically, I’ll go quick here, Vance. Decline right at two to one positive both for Nasdaq and NYSE.

The 70% volume upside, very good day for NYC. Nasdaq also solid at 61%. And today we had 344 stocks in 52 week high to just 109, hitting a new 52 week low in our sector watch today. Another good day. Ten of eleven sectors, really. It’s all eleven, frankly, believe it or not, tech was one sector lower today, and that’s because the semis were off a little bit. They’ll make my prediction tomorrow is Tyler and I just went over this. I think the semiconductors will be up big tomorrow.

[00:28:49]:
We’ll see if I’m right or wrong. But typically when the markets, if you’re paying attention, when the broad markets are up but semis are down the next day, that changes and the semiconductors lead. I would not be surprised tomorrow to see SMH, the semiconductor inductor, ETF, up a couple percent tomorrow. So again, longer term, the semis had been leading, but they were lower today. Every sector except tech up today led the upside. Real estate. Now, why would real estate be up 2.3%? Why the utilities be up one and a half percent? Rates are going lower. This is not rocket science.

Energy up 1.3% and industrials up 1%. Pretty much everything up really solidly today. Next up, commodity watch. You know, actually the first time I’ve looked at gold prices since launch. Oh, here we go. Yeah, good, good finish for gold as well. Gold today right up 30, 29.60 announced 23.51. What a classic pullback.

[00:29:51]:
Gold and silver in the miners had back to the 21 EMA after the burst. All time highs in gold and then pull right back to 21 EMA. It’s a classic, classic overbought setup, oversold setup for groups that are really trading hot, you know, going parabolic or trading well, you need to pull back the 21 EMA and boom, you buy right there. It’s time for the next move higher. We think that’s about to happen. And gold did today, by the way. But the all time highs in gold soon again, our minimum target now, our target had been 2400 for a gold at the start the year. We get that.

Our target now for end of year is 3000 plus. I believe we’re going to go through $3,000 announced this year. That’s why the miners are so unbelievably cheap. Wow. Did you see this. The Stansberry research has a gold newsletter. It’s been around for forever. I’m sure you’ve read it at some point, even if you didn’t know it was their work.

They put out a lot of work over the years. Okay, I’ve read a lot of it. I probably quoted it a bunch. They canceled. They stopped publishing that newsletter because of lack of demand. Holy shit. Is that a contrary buy signal for this group or what? I can’t wait to write this up tomorrow. Gold today.

[00:31:04]:
Get up. $29. Now it’s 23 52. Silver, up 3.4% today, up $0.95 an ounce. 28 56. Where do you go? Silver. Copper today up 1.3% to 460 a pound. What a great story.

Again, electric of the world. Crude oil, $0.59 available today. 79.58. Again, we love energy stocks here. Cash cows, cash printing machines is what they are. And finally, on the day, bitcoin. Bitcoin has been. This is what bitcoin does, right? It lowers you to sleep.

It goes to all time highs. It lowers you to sleep. And then just when everybody gives up on and the hot money leaves, right, it takes off again. That’s about to happen here. Bitcoin. 62,578, essentially flat from where it was yesterday. But again, bitcoin, typically after the halvings, has had a weak month or so, and then it’s been off to the races. As a reminder, one year after the previous three halvings, bitcoin has been up, on average, 3200%, not 32%, 3200 percent.

[00:32:13]:
So I don’t think it’s going to happen this time quite that big. But I do expect bitcoin to top 100,000 this year. All right, folks, I think that’s it for the day. Hey, I always appreciate you listening. Hope you had a great day. Be a better night. We’ll see you back here again tomorrow after the close.

Podcast Newsletter

Listen On

Time Stamps

00:00 "Don't fight the tape, don't fight the Fed."
03:38 The latest on Trump
06:44 Federal Reserve possibly influencing market outcomes.
11:53 Avoid mainstream media for investment decisions, trust experts.
15:21 Electrical grid needs major private investments. EV's impact.
17:43 Utility stocks rising signal anticipation of rate cuts.
22:15 Rates and stocks are predicted to rise.
23:25 2020 signs show sports world changes for TV.
28:49 Semiconductors likely to lead market shift. Rates dropping.
29:51 Gold and silver miners rise, then pullback.

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