Good Monday morning. This week has been the worst week of the year for the S&P 500 since 1950 (per Stock Traders Almanac). 2023 has featured the highest degree of “seasonality reliability” in recent memory, so we’ll see how the week plays out. With the Fed meeting this week and potential government shutdown on 9/30, not to mention ongoing geopolitical tensions and approaching “October-phobia”, there’s no shortage of things that could get the markets attention.

Beyond the Fed meeting and always excruciating J Powell presser on Wednesday (we fully expect the Fed to stand pat…there will be no rate hike), markets are also keying off of rate decisions this week from the Bank of England (BOE), the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ).
The BOE is expected to hike rates by 25 basis points, while the PBOC and the BOJ are expected to keep rates on hold. But any signals on future policy, particularly from the BOJ, will be key given that several members of the BOJ have...