Good Monday morning. Welcome to Q3. The S&P 500 surged 14.4% in the first half, marking the 16th strongest first-half performance since 1928. Following a strong first half of 2024, with disinflationary trends firmly in place and corporate earnings accelerating, the markets are poised for an even stronger second half of the year.

The first half of the year represents the 26th instance where the S&P 500 has jumped between 10-20% in the first half, which sets a highly positive precedent. As seen below from Ryan Detrick, when the market is up double digits in the first half, the full year has never been lower and has finished up 25.1% on average and higher 88% of the time.

July is a High Probability, Excellent Month 

– July has been highly bullish over the last decade. July has been up 9 years in a row (SPX) and higher 90% pf the time over the last decade, with an average gain of 3.1%. We also know that July is the best month of the year for the Qs (Nasdaq 100), wi...