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VRA Letter: VRA System: Overbought Into Resistance. VRA Portfolio Review; Galaxy Digital, Bitcoin, NuScale Power, Xtract One, Vista Gold.

Good Tuesday morning. While all eyes are on the results of tomorrow’s Fed meeting and Powell presser, yesterday brought the end of the S&P 500’s 9-day 21-year record run of advances. Here’s what’s most important, base ...

Posted On May 06, 20258 MIN Read
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Good Tuesday morning. While all eyes are on the results of tomorrow’s Fed meeting and Powell presser, yesterday brought the end of the S&P 500’s 9-day 21-year record run of advances. Here’s what’s most important, based on VRA System readings:

Because the internals have been so strong (producing a Zweig Breadth Thrust), we put the odds of this being a bear market rally, with a retest of the lows in the cards, at just 25%. However, as we covered yesterday, we have hit extreme OB on our short term momentum oscillators, just as we’re beginning to challenge the 200 dma on leading indexes (S&P 500, Nasdaq), which is where resistance will provide a challenge for higher prices.  

We see this in the chart below of Nasdaq 100; hitting the 200 dma for the first time since late March, as stochastics and MACD bounce off of extreme OB levels. Remember, the 200 dma of each index has also rolled over, which provides a further technical challenge.

Important (and possibly very i...

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