Good Tuesday morning. Our focus of the last month or so, outside of seasonal weakness that is clearly boring but must also be respected, has been on what we see as clear "inflection points” that are on the near term horizon.

These inflection points include; the Fed (a pause followed by rate cuts in 2024), the corresponding reversal lower in interest rates for govt bond yields and mortgage rates (etc), a slowdown in the US economy (to match what’s taking place globally), and the corresponding moves in our investment markets; US dollar (lower), precious metals/miners (higher), with semis/tech leading the broad markers higher into Q4 and Q1 2024.

With the above in mind, In this mornings Letter we’re taking a deep dive into the latest research from the best economist in the business for roughly 50 years, Ed Hyman of Evercore.
As you follow along, know this; it’s been widely rumored/believed that Fed Chair J Powell reads Hymans work religiously. We certainly hope that’s true…especial...