Good Friday morning. Just 5 weeks ago I was repeating my statement of the last two years; “this is the most bullish I’ve been in my career.” That set-up no longer exists, as the bears now have control of the market. As we covered in yesterday afternoons Letter (as we were selling multiple positions), this is the very last thing we thought we would be doing. At this point, Trumps tariff execution looks to be the financial equivalent of operation warp speed (without the Fed bailing out the economy/markets..as of now).

Trump could help to change things with a single statement; that he is reversing his hardline position on tariffs. Does anyone think that he can do that and save face? Especially as countries like China are now threatening their own steep, additional tariffs after Trumps tariffs go into effect on April 9? There’s no longer a debate; this is a global trade war. Until we have a capitulation event, with the VIX and put/call ratios hitting highly elevated levels, it will be d...