Good Thursday morning. As our resident Fed watcher covered on his podcast yesterday after the close, J Powell’s presser contained a lot of words, but should serious investors even continue to listen to him?

After 5 major policy errors since he got the job (from Trump) in 2018, Powell and team have been (exactly) wrong far more than they’ve been right.

I decided long ago that instead of listening to the Fed, I prefer to read the tea leaves…AKA, the bond and stock market action. They lead, the Fed follows. 

I’ll give Powell this; he recognizes that the economy is fundamentally strong and that rates may well stay higher for longer, because of that fact.

As a reminder, during the dot-com melt-up, the 10 year yield “averaged” better than 6%, with bouts over 7%. The 10 yr is 4.25% this AM (and headed lower). BTW, my first mortgage was near 11%…it’s just what we did.

This bull market is a freight train…and we’re only in the early innings (inning). 

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