Good Tuesday morning. At the end of January, the Atlanta Fed had Trumps economy running at a very healthy 3.9% clip. As we covered in yesterdays Letter, last Friday they lowered their Q1 estimate a stunningly low -1.5%.Then, just 3 days later (yesterday), the Atlanta Fed acted again, lowering their Q1 GDPNow estimate to a shocking -2.8%.

In total, in roughly 5 weeks, the Atlanta Fed has reduced Q1 GDP growth by an impossible to believe 6.7%, essentially casting the US economy into an early  recession as Trump begins his second term.

Here’s what long time economist Ed Yardeni had to say about the Atlanta Feds Q1 GDP “recessionary” estimates:

“The math doesn’t add up. Real GDP is basically a measure of domestic production that is calculated by adding up the sources of domestic demand and adding exports (which are not included in domestic demand, but boost domestic production), while subtracting imports (which need to be subtracted from domestic demand to calculate domestic outpu...