Good Monday morning. Is your head spinning this morning? Join the crowd. It’s a "risk-on" Monday morning, as a 90-day coordinated tariff reduction between the US and China has been reached (from 125% to 10% for China and from 145% to 30% for the US), which has US markets surging higher with the Dow Jones up 1100 points (2.7%) and Nasdaq higher by 810 points (+4%).

We’re assuming that Team Trump will position this as a trade war win, but the obvious question to us seems to be; "can you take credit for putting out a fire when you’re both the arsonist and firefighter?” The clear reality, in our view, is that Trump overplayed his hand on a trade embargo with China and lost political capital in the process. The administrations struggles in getting their tax cut bill through Congress is evidence of same with the (very) real potential for damage in the midterms. 

Still, Trump reads the room as well as anyone and his pivot on tariffs with China likely happened fast enough to avoid signif...