Good Friday morning. Next week commences the worst week of the year for the S&P 500 (since 1950, per Stock Traders Almanac). 2023 has featured the highest degree of “seasonality reliability” in recent memory, so we’ll see how the week plays out. With the Fed meeting next week and potential government shutdown on 9/30, not to mention ongoing geopolitical tensions and approaching “October-phobia”, there’s no shortage of things that could get the markets attention.

You sure wouldn’t have known about downside risks in yesterdays trading. Solid across the board, featuring internals that were among the best we’ve seen, post the end of July highs. Still, both the semis and tech underperformed the broad market. Not ideal. And yields are jumping again, with the 10 year back to 4.33% this AM. How sweet would it be to have a triple-top in 10 year yields, coinciding with next weeks Fed meeting?

Here are our two big tells, should the highs in yields be in place; The semis/tech (which resp...