VRA Letter: Q1 GDP Comes in Negative. “Get Trump” Still in Place. “The Tell” From MSFT, META, AAPL & AMZN. VRA Market Roadmap. - Vertical Research Advisory

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VRA Letter: Q1 GDP Comes in Negative. “Get Trump” Still in Place. “The Tell” From MSFT, META, AAPL & AMZN. VRA Market Roadmap.

Good Wednesday morning. Breaking: Q1 GDP was released at 8:30 EST and showed that the US economy contracted for the first time in three years, reflecting a surge in imports (front-running of tariffs, building inventories) along wi ...

Posted On April 30, 20255 MIN Read

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Good Wednesday morning. Breaking: Q1 GDP was released at 8:30 EST and showed that the US economy contracted for the first time in three years, reflecting a surge in imports (front-running of tariffs, building inventories) along with a slowdown in consumer spending. Q1 GDP came in with a negative reading of -0.3%, the first contraction in GDP since early 2022 (worse than estimates of -0.2%). BTW, the Atlanta Fed’s armageddon GDP estimate was only off by 2.4% (max sarcasm).

Again, the primary culprit behind the negative reading was a record surge in imports as companies imported foreign goods before the tariffs took effect (trade deficits subtract from GDP). In addition, consumer spending (70% of the economy), rose at 1.8% pace (slowing considerably from second half of 2024) but beating estimates of 1.2%..

We also learned (yesterday) that the effects have already been felt, as consumer confidence dropped to its lowest reading since May 2020 and JOLTS job openings (March) fell to 7....

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