Good Thursday morning. Did yesterdays trading mark the highs in 10-year yields?

In the chart below we see that the 10-year yield just put in an "outside day”, an important technical event where both the highs and lows of the previous days trading are taken out. Outside days commonly mark a significant reversal event.

Last October the 10 year yield put in an outside day, taking yields from 4.33% in October down to 3.25% by April (a 25% move lower).

We also had an outside day in the US dollar last October, which took the USD from 113 to 99 (a 12% move lower).

And let’s not forget the biggest of outside days. On 10/13/22, the S&P 500 had a giant outside day, one of the many reasons we called the bear market bottom that day.

Outside reversal day patterns are high probability but not 100%. It’s hard to find 100%.

We’ll be watching yields even more closely from here. We won’t be alone.

Here are our two big tells, should the highs in yields be in place; The semis/...