Good Monday morning. Heads up: tomorrow night at 8PM EST Lost Soldier Oil and Gas will host their next Zoom meeting. You’ll want to be on this Zoom. In addition, this week is a holiday shortened one as the markets will be closed on Thursday for President Jimmy Carters funeral.

In today’s Letter we’re focusing on our forecasts and outlook for 2025. In last years forecasts we said our markets would have another banner year with gains of 25% (check; in both VRA Portfolio and broad market), that Bitcoin would top $100,000 (check), that Tesla would top $300 (check), that gold would top $2500 (check), that the Fed would cut rates 2-3 times (check) and that the US economy would not go into recession (check).

We had our misses as well but as forecasts go we feel pretty good about last years. I’ll also note that each of these 2024 forecasts were fairly deep contrarian calls.

Two years ago I said I was more bullish than at any point in my 39 year career (as spelled out in "The Big Bribe...