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VRA Letter: Long Term Correlations Breaking Down. Pre-Alert; UVXY. Our Achilles Heal. Ed Yardeni; Bond Market Vigilantes

Good Friday morning. Breaking: overnight China raised their tariffs to 125% on all US imports. The truth is that these tariff numbers are now irrelevant as the US and China have essentially imposed a near-complete trade embargo ...

Posted On April 11, 20254 MIN Read
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Good Friday morning. Breaking: overnight China raised their tariffs to 125% on all US imports. The truth is that these tariff numbers are now irrelevant as the US and China have essentially imposed a near-complete trade embargo on one another. This morning gold is up another $67 to $3244/oz, another ATH, with 10 yr bond yields climbing once again to 4.46%. Futures are higher by .40%, following yesterday’s losses of more than 4%. The market leading semis fell more than 7% yesterday, with Nasdaq losing more than 4%. The semis lead nasdaq and nasdaq leads the broad market. Keep an eye on these two groups as they will continue to lead in both directions. 
 
Heads up: we may be taking action today on a lev VIX ETF, in the event we see another Friday-Monday crash-like set-up. We’re looking at buying UVXY (3 x VIX ETF), which we have used often over the years for situations like this. Again, we are looking to book 1-3 day, short-term trades with profits of 20-30% each time, as part of our b...

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