Good Friday morning. This mornings Jackson Hole address from J Powell begins at 10 am est. We’ll have a follow up letter to you asap. As you watch, keep this in mind; over the years, Powell has famously made this point often (and you’ll no doubt hear it again this morning); “here at the Fed, we are data dependent”.  If only that were true. The problem with this statement today is that the Fed is light years away from being data dependent. If they were they would have resumed their rate cutting program…they certainly would have were Biden or Harris president.

Instead, Powell and the Fed have become "narrative dependent”, being forced to...time and time again…defend their restrictive interest rate policy based on their view that “going forward, Trumps tariff policies will be inflationary”. Forget today’s data that shows inflation as contained…the Fed must continually defend their narrative that inflation is "coming back".  Just another example of why Powell is the worst Fed Chair of o...