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VRA Letter: J Powells Big Day; Expect Maximum Dovishness. Key Market Drivers. Wayne Allyn Roots Election Strategy. Why Republicans Lose.

Good Friday morning. After yesterday’s overbought reversal lower…led by the semis/tech…futures are solidly higher this AM in front of J Powells Jackson Hole speech at 10 AM EST. As I write, Dow Jones futures have erased all ...

Posted On August 23, 20246 MIN Read
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Good Friday morning. After yesterday’s overbought reversal lower…led by the semis/tech…futures are solidly higher this AM in front of J Powells Jackson Hole speech at 10 AM EST. As I write, Dow Jones futures have erased all of yesterday’s losses (-177) with Nasdaq recouping 50% of its losses (-299).

Remember, we were only overbought on stochastics, our shortest term momentum oscillator. This market has a long runway before it sniffs heavily overbought, longer term. In advance of several bullish catalysts (today’s speech, 8/28 Nvidia earnings and 9/18 Fed rate cut) we expect dips will be short-lived, most certainly if the semis (SMH-SOXL) continue to lead the broad markets higher. The semis remain our #1 tell for stock market direction.

As to the medium-long term, we remain highly bullish. As we start trading today, just 72.8% of the S&P 500 is above the 50 dma, while 75.6% is above the 200 dma. Until these readings top 90%, the path of least resistance is “higher”.

It’s J ...

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