Good Wednesday morning. As the markets continue to gyrate based on the latest drama out of the Middle East, we actually have something else to focus on today; the Fed statement (2PM EST) and Powell presser that follows (30 minutes later). The Fed will leave rates unchanged (for a fourth straight meeting), reiterating they want "more clarity on the economic impact of a wide array of government policy changes.”

At this point it’s beyond political. Powell has it out for Trump and everyone knows it (and the feelings are mutual). Just as in 2018, when the Fed hiked rates 7 straight times, producing the 4th quarter from hell (the worst Q4 stock market performance ever, including the Great Depression) today, Powell and his merry band of money printers have no interest in helping Trumps economy achieve breakaway speed.

3-4% GDP growth should be the case today. Were rates 1% lower (to 3.33% FFR vs current 4.33% FFR) US GDP would almost certainly be growing at that rate. 7% mortgage rates ...