Good Friday morning. Stocks and bitcoin are down, while gold and oil are climbing, as Israel begins fresh military attacks against Iran.

I’m out of the office until mid-day but here are my early thoughts.

Last April, Israel attacked the Iranian consulate in Syria, which kicked off a 7% decline two weeks in the S&P 500 and 11% move lower in Nasdaq. Gold jumped 8% and silver soared 20%. However, oil rose just $5 barrel (6%).

This looks different, with oil already +9% (from a much lower base of low $80’s then vs low $70’s today) and gold jumping as much as $60/oz, although those gains are quickly fading away (+$33 now). We would not add to positions at the open…in anything. Once the bullets start flying, gains in gold and oil tend to peak and then plateau. We’ll see if this time is different. The S&P 500 has already recouped 40% of their early morning losses.

 Trump has warned Iran to "make a deal...before there is nothing left”. 

We’ll be back with more lat...