Good Monday morning. In his highly anticipated speech at the annual economic confab in Jackson Hole, Wyoming on Friday, Fed Chair J Powell argued in favor of keeping rates steady but noted that "further tightening" could be warranted if the economy does not slow enough to help cool inflation.

It’s an important week for economic and inflationary data as we’ll get the August jobs report on Friday, preceded by the PCE (personal consumption expenditure index) on Thursday.

Estimates show that the US added 170,000 jobs during the month (down from 187,000 in July) while the unemployment rate is seen staying unchanged at 3.5%. There is an 80% chance that the Fed will maintain the Fed Funds Rate at 5.50% at its next meeting in September, according to the "Fed Rate Monitor". Meanwhile, the probability of a 1/4 point hike at its November meeting stands at just under 50%, moving up from about 35% last week.

Ed Hyman, our favorite economist and almost certainly the best in the business for...