VRA Letter: Fed Rate Cut. Second half of December; Highly Bullish. The Semis Will Lead the Way Higher. Melting Up; Tesla and Bitcoin. - Vertical Research Advisory

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VRA Letter: Fed Rate Cut. Second half of December; Highly Bullish. The Semis Will Lead the Way Higher. Melting Up; Tesla and Bitcoin.

Good Monday morning. This week (Wednesday, 2PM EST) the Fed will cut rates again (by .25%), marking a continuation of their rate-cutting cycle which we see continuing throughout 2025. We came into 2024 forecasting that we would ge ...

Posted On December 16, 202411 MIN Read

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Good Monday morning. This week (Wednesday, 2PM EST) the Fed will cut rates again (by .25%), marking a continuation of their rate-cutting cycle which we see continuing throughout 2025. We came into 2024 forecasting that we would get 2-3 rate cuts and Wednesdays cut will be number 3 on the year.

No, inflation will not come roaring back and no, interest rates aren’t headed sharply higher.

If you’re a follower of analytics and seasonality, December has played out pretty much like it was supposed to. The first half of the month is typically weak-ish (the Dow Jones has closed down for 7 straight days), while the second half is one of the most bullish periods of the year. Going back to 1954 the second half of December has been up 83% of the time (presidential years) as investors anticipate the Santa Claus rally (final 5 days of the year and first 2 of 2025) and the beginning of a new month/quarter, along with the massive flow of funds that will come into stocks at the beginning of each ...

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