Good Wednesday morning. Alert: this morning we added ERX (2 x Energy ETF) to the VRA Portfolio at a price of $56. We’re tracking NAIL (3 x Housing ETF) for addition closely here.

FOMC Meeting and Powell Presser

Today at 2PM EST the Fed will cut rates by .25%. That’s a given. However, the markets are convinced it will be a “hawkish cut” meaning that Powell and his team of fiat money printers will announce that future cuts may be slower than previously anticipated. We’ll be announcing our rate cut analysis for 2025 soon. Just know that as we came into 2024 we forecast 2-3 cuts for the year and today’s cut will mark # 3.

The effective Fed funds rate (FFR) today is 4.58%.

As with each of these monthly meetings and Powell pressers, the real question is “what will J Powell say during his address”. Here, we’ve given up guessing what Mr. Powell might say, except that for his first 4-5 years at the helm of the Fed (from 2018) Powell was personally responsible for the floor dropping ...