Good Monday morning. This looks to be a big, even pivotal week for the US economy and markets. In addition to loads of key economic data, over 1/3rd of the S&P 500 reports earnings, just as the most important equity index on the planet is hitting key resistance levels (at SPX 5525).

Here’s what matters most for the week:

Tuesday: JOLTS report (7.48 million job openings Est.) and the Case-Schiller home price index (+4.6% y/y est.)

Wednesday: big day with ADP employment report (+123K est.) and Q1 GDP (+0.4% est.), Core PCE inflation index (+0.1% m/m est.), and personal spending (+0.6% est.).

Of the above, Wednesdays biggies are Q1 GDP and personal spending. Estimates range from +0.4% to -0.3% from the Atlanta Fed. The economy slowed in Q1…that’s going to be a given…now we’ll find out how much. According to several Wall Street economists it’s possible we’re already in a recession if Q1 comes in negative, since Q2 will likely slow even more.

Remember, spending is close t...