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VRA Letter: Analysis of (normal) Bull Market Shakeouts. Semis Flashing Major Oversold Buy Signals. Next Up.

Good Tuesday morning. Yesterdays panic-fueled selloff began with Japan’s primary market (Nikkei) closing down 13%, as the carry trade unwind kicked in, followed by a near 8% decline at the open in the semis, which (as always) le ...

Posted On August 06, 20245 MIN Read
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Good Tuesday morning. Yesterdays panic-fueled selloff began with Japan’s primary market (Nikkei) closing down 13%, as the carry trade unwind kicked in, followed by a near 8% decline at the open in the semis, which (as always) led the markets primary direction, in this case lower.

By midday, the semis had recouped all of those losses and went green for a bit, as the put-call ratio peaked at 1.31. It looked very much like the worst was over, at least until the State Dept announced that they expected Iran to attack Israel in the next 24 hours. And just like that, the move lower was back on, ultimately taking the Dow Jones down 1030 points by the close (-2.6%) with Nasdaq finishing lower by 3.4%. Of note, the semis were the market leader yesterday, finishing down just over 2%.  We’ll come back to the semis in a bit...

* Overnight, Japan’s crash was followed by a melt-up, with the Nikkei closing higher by 10.2%.

Here’s where we are on each major index, from the ATH’s of 3 weeks ago...

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