Good Thursday morning. Breaking: Final Q3 GDP is in with growth of 4.4% vs estimates of 4.3%. Beginning last summer we were the first strategists in America (that we are aware of) that began forecasting GDP growth would surpass 5% by Q3 2026. With the Atlanta Fed’s Q4 GDPNow estimate of 5.4% growth, it looks like the Trump Economic Miracle will beat our GDP estimates to the punch.

Following Tuesday’s sharp selloff, our near term (counter trend) concerns about Japan and Greenland look to have been put to bed with the announcement the US has the framework of a deal with Greenland. As to Japan, the surge higher in the Nikkei 225 (which finished up 1.7% overnight) has the Nikkei just 1.4% from all-time highs. The markets are a discounting mechanism and are showing no signs of an impending melt-down in Japan.

While JGB’s will remain as one of our top blackswan event risks, it now looks like Scott Bessents warning about the sharp rise in JGB yields may have been a bit of throwaway ...