In today’s episode, Tyler recaps the latest moves in the markets after a day in the red for major indexes, uncovering the bright spots that signal continued market strength. He shares insights from a recent appearance on the Sch ...
Don’t look back because the market is closed. Good Tuesday afternoon everyone. Tyler Herriage here with you for today’s VRA Investing podcast. Hope you all had a fantastic day out there today. There was some red on the screen for our markets today, at least for our major indexes, but there’s certainly plenty of bright spots on the day to day. We’ll cover what we’ve seen. To start off this week, we’ll recap a little bit of what Kip did a fantastic job to start off the week with the podcast yesterday. So I’ll try to keep up with that one here today.
Like I said, despite the red on the screen from the major indexes, there are a lot of bright spots out there in the market. And based off some news we got right at the market close today, we should be back off to the races tomorrow. We’ll see what happens overnight. I won’t say definitively we’ll be back off to the races tomorrow. Usually those short term kind of moves oftentimes are a fool’s errand. We aren’t day traders here at the VRA. We we look at it as opportunity trading. We’ll take advantage of short term moves if the market presents them to us.
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Those moves for us, we measure in, you know, weeks and months, not, not in days. So much not to say that it can’t be done, just not what we do here at the vra. If you aren’t already here with us, I would love to break it down for you here right now and I’ll do it briefly. But you can find out everything that we do for 14 days absolutely free@vra letter.com you’ll receive access to everything that we have to offer. Daily updates, our core portfolio which tells you exactly what positions that we are in and our track record going back for over a decade in that portfolio. So you can see every trade that we’ve made. We have no secrets on that front. So come and join us, take a look at it and I’ve got some a great stat here to share in a minute today just about how bullish all time highs are.
So if you’re not in this market yet and you feel like you’ve missed out, stay tuned for that one. You won’t want to miss this stat. But here at the vra again I won’t dive too deeply into it and everything we do here and the VRA investing system, which is how we do this, but our goal every day that we get up excited to do truly, we do love what we do Here, very grateful for the opportunity to do it as well, is to serve retail investors, the mom and pop investor, to help them to beat Mr. Market. To help you to beat Mr. Market. Because for so many years, Wall street has taken advantage of Americans, by and large, from every, you know, income bracket, from every race, religion, and creed out there. So we’re ready to help the little guy get some payback.
And there’s never been a better time to take control of your financial future. The tools at your disposal as an individual investor have never been better. I mean, 40 years ago, Wall street financial professionals would have literally probably killed for access to the tools that we have today. So, you know, again, there’s never been a better time. Commission, free trading, all of those things as well, but to do it yourself. And so come and join us. That’s what we want to show you how to do here at the vra. In the VRA portfolio, we have no conflicts of interest like Wall Street.
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What you see in there is exactly what you get. That’s exactly what we’re doing with our money in our family office, in our own portfolios. Those are the positions that we own. They’re the positions we dollar cost average into. They’re the positions that we believe in. So at the end of the day, you can rest easy and always be assured that we’re on the same side of all of these trades with you. We’re long the same companies together, right? We’re out of the same companies together. And we love getting your feedback.
I’m just going to pause there for a second because we have so many fantastic listeners, clients, members all over the world, and we can’t thank you enough. We are so grateful for the opportunity to do this today. I was on the Schwab network earlier today. We’ll have the link out tomorrow for the interview. It was a little bit different of an interview than I’m used to. You know, funny enough, I’ll take a step back here. My previous interview, funny enough, was on March 30th. If you’ve been following us here on the podcast or you remember, you know, that day marked the lows and the massive turnaround to the upside.
That was a Monday. I went on in the afternoon, markets were in the red and talked about how nothing had changed in rv. We were at the lows of this move and with conviction. You know, I gotta give all the credit to Kip there on this one, too. You know, us bouncing off ideas off each other all day can certainly help keep you sane. But when you’re at the bottom of a 10% move. We talked about it a lot here on the podcast. It never feels good, right? And usually right when you’re on the cusp of being like, all right, just get me out.
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The end is usually in sight, not always. And every pullback is different. Right. We don’t want to get into a habit of thinking that they’re all the same. When you get lazy, that’s when you make mistakes along the way. So we’re certainly staying vigilant here at the vra. We’ll discuss a little bit of that today too, because from that March 30th move higher, I mean, incredible move here just because this is the chart I have in front of me, the NASDAQ, you know, up almost at one point, almost 20% and today actually did hit an intraday all time high before finishing lower. It’s a little sneak peek at what we’ll talk about today.
But again, my interview on March 30, mark the lows huge rally since and what we talk about here on a daily basis is stuff like this that we had hit extreme overbought on steroids levels, which is would be expected. Rarely do you see a rally 13 days in a row. Like we just got. So a pause here would be we would expect that we would see it as predictable. And I have some more points on that in a minute. But back to the Schwab Network, we got to discuss a bit of a different topic. I got asked last night to come on to talk about, you know, RTX Raytheon, formerly I guess Raytheon and G Aerospace earnings, two companies, as you know, that that’s not what we cover here at the vra. We’ll cover defense stocks.
If there’s a really sexy story, we actually do technically have one in the VRA portfolio for a very specific reason. And I won’t get into it because I mean the Schwab Network people are fantastic. These are the most fun conversations just because it is solely financial based. They’re not for everybody, that’s for sure. Definitely a niche audience. They’re very hyper financial audience. But it’s kind of fun to get into the weeds with other people in the industry. And they’ve just got a fantastic team all the way around there.
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So thank you again to the Schwab Network for to Nicole and everybody on the team for having me on. But today was on a panel with Nicole Petalides and Bob Lang. And again, this isn’t a sector we cover too often. And I said that on There as well. We don’t have a position here, but there’s likely a lot of opportunity in the defense space. So it was a fun conversation. And again, back to just how grateful we are for our listeners here. I had a great conversation right before that interview, you know, with a listener here, and just got some great feedback and some great ammo to go into this conversation because we talked a little bit about it before, funny enough, had a conversation related to this sector to just recently, you know, so when I got the call to do this, I had to give him a text right away and say, hey, my Vi, you know, shoot some ideas off you here and see what you think.
You know, so many of y’, all, we talk on a regular basis and your feedback always means so much. So keep it coming. We love it here. We love our conversations. We truly have such a smart money audience here. There’s just. It’s so much fun. It’s so much optimism, too.
I know Kip and I talk about that a lot about being optimistic, but it is contagious overall. So we’ve got a great rest of the podcast lined up for you here. I’ll try to keep it a little bit short based off of what I. I just went into there. And heads up, no podcast tomorrow. We’ll be on the road for a due diligence trip. We’ll be back here with you later in the week this week. All right, excuse me there.
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Without further ado, start to dump in, jump into some of today’s action because as I mentioned, we did have those rtx, I’m gonna keep calling it Raytheon Earnings this morning in ge, Aerospace, both of which beat again, not a sector that we follow here, but in a bull market like this, you want to see them participating. And there’s some really exciting names on the horizon for this group. All right, so later in the week, this week tomorrow, we will have Tesla after the close. So wish we’d be on the podcast here. We with you to discuss it. We’ll discuss it, though, later in the weeks because later in the week because there’s some other big names. Boeing ahead of the open Texas Instruments. And then on Thursday, too, we’ve still got intel and a number.
I mean, we’re just getting into the heart of earning season. Tesla, I believe, is probably the first of the Mag 7, right? Unless I miss something. So we still got, you know, Google, Alphabet, Amazon. A lot of big names left to get into. So for this market today, what we saw really from the last two sessions has been the inverse of what we got in the last 13 days of just straight up, you know, the FIFO names. We were looking for semiconductors leading textbook bull market action that we talked about. But even the pullback, despite all of the fears behind the Iran war, fears behind oil prices, our tune never was unchanged. We were looking at it as a buying opportunity, a 10% correction that, as we’ve talked about here, often happens roughly every 13 months.
So just as tariff mania was about a year ago. All right, we’re right in the range of expected averages. What else was. I was going to have one more point there. Oh, also midterm years. There we go. In midterm years, it’s actually very common to see a 10% correction or more. Let’s see.
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Well, I know I have the stat here somewhere. Let me find it really quick. Let’s see, going back. I know I have it. Bear with me here. Well, anyway, I think it was, you know, 16 or 18 events of a 10 pullback in a midterm year. So again, common in the average gains after the recovery. I think the market finished up on average in the, you know, 20 plus percent range.
I think it was higher than that. That’s why I really wanted to find the stat here. Oh, there we go. Okay. Followed by an average move higher over the next year by 38%. So there you go. It was worth it to stick it through on that one. That is what we still see going forward.
But in the short term we would hit extreme overbought levels. You would expect to get a little bit of a pause. And so far it’s exactly what this has been. This isn’t, hasn’t been a massive move lower. It’s been very orderly, a coiled spring look, just from two days of action, healthy backing and filling at extreme overbought levels. But again, the textbook side of this, on the down days, we saw exactly what we saw when the Iran war started to flare up. If people are fearful again, again, going into the day, we weren’t sure if there was going to be a ceasefire or not. Trump was on CNBC this morning.
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Almost never watch cnbc, but essentially that, but here’s what he said. Here’s a quote. President Trump on Monday said the ceasefire with Iran is highly unlikely to be extended. So this was from yesterday, I took this note before, but he essentially carried it into today that, you know, the talks are going to happen, but if they don’t happen, bombs are going to drop. That was the fear. And we saw exactly that from the market. We saw oil up, we saw rates up, we saw the dollar up, all of these things. And Kip discussed this yesterday.
Pretty predictable outcome in this situation. We saw all the things that we got going into this move. Then it’s a good thing I started this podcast after the close. I was going to start a little bit quicker today since I already had the interview to kind of warm up a little bit. This tweet came out, I mean, just minutes after the close today, nine minutes after the close, and kind of pause my podcast. But essentially here, statement from President Trump based on the fact that the government of Iran is seriously fractured. Not unexpectedly, just for any audio listeners, I’ll go ahead and read this here. A true social post from Trump.
So, upon the request of Field Marshal, and I’m not gonna try to butcher these names here, of, of Pakistan, the US Military has been asked to hold off the attack on the country until Iran can pick new leaders because their leadership has been absolutely destroyed. So they can come together with the unified proposal. I’m kind of paraphrasing now, but essentially the ceasefire has been extended to an indefinite date at this point. There is no direct end date here. So if I were to check futures right now, which are not open yet, unfortunately, I would expect they’ll be big to. To the upside. Just because we’re at overbought levels doesn’t mean we can’t continue to head higher. And the last two sessions did do or will do in hindsight, a little bit for them.
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But a market that gets overbought and stays overbought, it’s a fine line, but there’s very rarely a more bullish occurrence than that. And again, one more point here to sentiment as well, in addition to just the, the market move as a whole that Kip discussed yesterday. If you tuned in to any financial, mainstream media, social media, or even talking to friends, there’s so many people who not participated in this market. And that’s okay. I’ll share this chart here next. For anybody who hasn’t participated. You know, if you feel like you’ve missed out, it’s not too late. Let me just say that I’ll get to it here in about 30 seconds.
But there are so many people that not only have they not participated, but they want this market to go lower. Charles Payne says this often, and I love this quote that, oh, it’s a bubble so often means I didn’t own that stock. And, and that’s the, the simple truth, right? If you’re not in it, you don’t want to continue to See it going up, that’s just human nature right there. I wouldn’t fault anybody for that. So when you’re seeing that kind of sentiment, though, and people are saying, oh, yeah, just, you know, this market’s going to go lower for X, Y and Z. Reason, yeah, that’s not the sign of a market top. The sign of a top is when everyone is convinced that stocks can’t go lower. Right.
Like lately, over the last few months, we’re getting the calls of, hey, I just sold this stock. You think I sold it at the right time? Not should I sell this stock or think about it or think about buying the sock. It’s already happened. Right. When we’re getting closer to a market top, the calls that we get are much more like, hey, I just bought this stock. What do you think? Those are the kinds that we get at a market top. Oh, I know that it’s 100, up 150% from the IPO two weeks ago, but I just, I just bought a little bit of it. What do you think then? We’re starting to get close.
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And even then, it could still have a long way to run. And here’s proof of that right here. This is the stat that Kip talked about yesterday that I just saw that saw this chart yesterday is why him and I were talking about it. But you see it passed around all the time because you pick different time periods almost always. It’s true that even buying at all time highs, if that’s all you ever bought it, you would actually outperform money managers over the same time period. So take a look at this here. The stats are from Charlie Belio. Again, have you just bought a new all time highs versus even all other time periods? So the set that I’m referring to is even more so.
You’d outperform not only the market, but other money managers. Again, have you just bought at all time highs? It’s pretty incredible when you see stats like that right, right there. Because also, I do like that in the long enough term, stocks only go up into the right. That’s true from the origins of the US Stock market. It’s just a fact. And if that didn’t at least add a little bit of, you know, encouragement to you, then maybe you should have somebody else manage your money. Just set it and forget it. All right, quickly here.
Let’s cover the markets on the day to day because that’s most of the market action. We’re at overbought levels. We’ll look at this as a pause and we’re as time to add to positions and I’ll get to some of the bright spots on the day here in just a second because I am looking at a screen with a lot of green on it. All right, for our major indexes again to kind of the inverse of what we’ve seen for the last 13 days. You know, again, yields were up to a dollar up. Oil was up earlier. Russell 2000 has led the way out of this correction and today led the way lower down 1%. Again, no major concerns for us here on that front.
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We see this as, as normal action. After that we had, let’s see here, the S P500 down 6/10 of 1% on the day to day. Excuse me. And then the Dow Jones and the Nasdaq the same down 6/10 of 1%. So we’ll go ahead and leave it there essentially on the Nasdaq. But I do have one more chart or two more charts to share here because what do we want to see from this market? Technically the Nasdaq held up the best, right? You want to see the semis outperforming the NASDAQ once again, all time high from the semiconductors. Just fantastic to see. Exactly.
Again, not to toot my own horn here in any way, but if you, if we go back and watch that interview for March 30, we said, I said on the Schwab network that we want to see the semis leading the way higher, bullish on Nvidia, the miners, all those area. But the semis especially, I mean just to eyeball it here, look at this. If it lows at 359 or so, I’ll even go higher, almost 30% again from those March 30 lows. Just fantastic to see and that’s no credit to, to me at all in any way. That is the VRA investing system to developed by Kip and his mentors that I’ve been fortunate enough to learn over the years and can hope to teach it and pass it on to more people along the way because that is the only way you can make calls with confidence is having a system, right. And continuously testing that system, you know, and keeping a track record of what it has done as well. This one, just a prime example. Honestly, we didn’t expect the market to go back to all time highs in 13, quite 13 sessions.
But we knew based off of our other work that we wanted to be long and we wanted to use dips to buy. And it’s exactly what we did. We stuck to the Game plan. Oh, one more other chart here. Gosh, so good. Another all time high today. Again, the Dow and the NASDAQ were in the same boat, but the semis finished higher and the transports even led that just a parabolic move again, all time highs up 2 1/2% bodes very well. Again, these are the under the surface bright spots that you don’t see in the headlines.
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But if you’re a subscriber to Dow theory that when the Dow transports hit an all time high, the Dow is going to follow in the inverse as well to the downside or the Dow hits an all time high, the transfers are going to follow. So very good, very good action to see here. All right, next up here for our internals on the day today, you know, for a day where we spent so much of the session in the red and, and really took a few beatings along the way, the internals weren’t that bad, you know, kind of for advanced decline, you know, say just slightly worse than 2 to 1 negative. But 52 week highs and lows, yes, a lagging indicator. But a big number of 52 week highs versus lows today. Volume also roughly 2 to 1 negative on the NYSE. Slightly better, not much though on the Nasdaq. But really nothing, nothing terrible.
We’ve seen some impressive internals recently looking at our sectors, as you might expect, only 1, 1 sector finishing positive on that. A 10 out of our 11 sectors negative on the day. We’re led by Energy XLE, which this is another one here, similar to the kind of defense story. Even if oil prices don’t go lower or do continue lower, excuse me, which we fully expect to be the case that we look at those, you know, basically right at the $120 barrel mark where it got to earlier in March when the conflict started. We look at those as the highs and it won’t be straight down, just like inflation is not straight down, just like earnings aren’t straight up. We’ll look for oil to come down slowly over time. But oil and gas companies were primed and positioned so well going into this move higher. Right.
Because we’ve seen oil at lower levels. I mean we’re just a few months ago, you know, in December in the $50 a barrel range, $55 a barrel range. Those companies were still making money at those levels, right. They had cut, cut crews down, optimize machinery where you need less people, even less people on site. A lot of people can do it from a desktop at home, engineers even. So from this point forward I mean, if they’re set to make money at $60 a barrel, let’s say we settle somewhere around 70 just, just as an estimate, right? Not even trying to give you. That’s my pick. Just saying that means that they’re making an extra $10 for every barrel that they’re producing.
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They’re going to be pretty happy and earnings are going to be great. Which means share prices are going to head higher too. So I mean, that one would require a little more digging for an individual name from me right now. But again, to the point of this is a bull market and you want to see so many areas participating. All right. For our laggards on the sectors, real estate, utilities, industrials, I will point out the housing index actually did finish higher today. So another bright spot there that you might not expect on a day with yield tire and actually getting through a few of its major moving averages here. So again, another major bright spot that flew under the radar for a lot of people today.
All right, let’s wrap it up here for today. Gold now lower on the day. $4,738 an ounce. This is a group we do remain extremely bullish on here. Even with the miners were down 6% on the session today. They did get hit pretty hard during the war sell off as well. But we’ll continue to look at this as an opportunity after that. Silver now at $76 and 67 cents an ounce.
There we go. Copper still just above $6 a pound here for Dr. Copper. Next up, oil is now last trade above $90 a barrel. Let me get a quick refresh of one screen here. This is one we’ve, we’ve referenced a lot to really get a look at what market makers are seeing. All right now this is pretty good. We’re already seeing, we’re seeing the timeline continue to move up for lower oil prices today.
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Even with the, sorry, the cost per barrel up, we’re still in roughly August. We’re seeing oil futures contracts in 79 a barrel. Once again, we’ll see if we can get that to continue. As I said, that remains our call. We expect lower oil prices but it won’t be straight down. But despite any spike up wouldn’t be something that worried us in the short term. All right, finally here for today, bitcoin continuing a little bit of sideways action after it hit those recent highs just a few days ago. Above $78,000 of Bitcoin.
Now just below $76,000 thousand dollars of Bitcoin, folks. That’s all that we have time for here today. Please be sure to subscribe to receive our podcasts every day at the market close. You can sign up@vra letter.com click the podcast link at the top and we’d love to have you with us. Thanks again for tuning in. Until next time, we’ll see you back here on Thursday. Again, we’ll be gone tomorrow. We’ll possibly be back Thursday.
Let’s just go ahead and say for right now, we’ll see you back here on Friday for the close. Thanks everyone.
In today’s episode, Kip recaps Monday’s market action and dives into the ongoing “panic buying” phenomenon that’s driving this generational bull market. He discusses the wall of worry investors are still climbing, the remarkable undercurrent of fear keeping billions sidelined, and why there’s still plenty of room for markets—especially the Nasdaq and Tesla—to run. Kip explains how indicators in tech, AI, cryptocurrencies, and commodities like gold and silver signal a broader, long-lasting innovation revolution. Plus, get his thoughts on the global backdrop, the impact of fiscal stimulus, and the budding AI IPO craze. Whether you’re bullish, cautious, or still on the sidelines, this episode is packed with key insights to help you stay ahead in today’s rapidly evolving market. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.
Welcome back to the VRA Investing Podcast! In today’s episode, Kip Herriage breaks down the current state of the bull market as the S&P 500 and NASDAQ notch new all-time highs. He reflects on the accuracy of VRA’s long-term market forecasts, dives into why this era of innovation goes beyond just the AI boom, and previews changes coming to the VRA approach—including new focus on opportunistic IPO trading. Kip Herriage also shares lessons learned from the dot-com era, offers bullish insights on Tesla and Nvidia, and calls out lingering market bearishness as a powerful buy signal. Tune in for analysis on market cycles, trends in commodities like gold and bitcoin, and a candid look at why the economic growth story is just getting started.
In today’s episode, Tyler takes you through the latest developments in the markets after a parabolic move to fresh all-time highs, even as we see a brief pause with some red on the screen. Get ready for a fast-paced ride through earnings season highlights, sector analysis, and unique historical comparisons that put today’s market into perspective. Tyler breaks down why disciplined investing, understanding overbought conditions, and keeping an eye on the leadership of mega cap tech are key to navigating this market. Plus, learn why money supply growth, investor sentiment, and animal spirits may signal that the real party in the markets is just getting started. Whether you’re a seasoned listener or new to the VRA, buckle up as we explore where the biggest opportunities lie and why it’s not too late to join this bull run. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.
Welcome back to the VRA Investing Podcast with your host, Kip Herriage. In today’s episode, Kip Herriage breaks down why he believes we’re in the early innings of a powerful, structural bull market. He shares insights on market signals, major asset class moves—like the surges in gold, silver, and the miners—and explains why all-time highs across the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 are just the beginning. Kip Herriage dives into geopolitical updates, including Trump’s pivot on the current conflict and its impact on markets, and lays out his bullish outlook on key sectors—from housing and tech to cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and the emerging star, BitTensor. Plus, get his take on the Federal Reserve transition, the importance of tokenization, and why the current melt-up phase could generate massive opportunities for investors. Stay tuned for a data-packed, bullish market roadmap you won’t want to miss.
In today's episode, Tyler breaks down a powerful move to all-time highs as semiconductors go parabolic to lead the charge. He walks through the latest earnings and what the major indexes are signaling about the strength of this bull market. PLUS, don't miss what history says about what comes next after similar “melt-up” moves. Tune in to hear how he’s thinking about positioning, risk, and opportunity as this semiconductor boom accelerates.
