Don’t look back because the market is closed. Good Friday afternoon everyone. Tyler Herriage here with you for today’s VRA Investing podcast. Hope you all had a fantastic day out there today. Hope your week was great as well as we just completed the first full week of trading for 2026 and what a week it was. I will get into all of it here today and much more, but first I have to say it is great to be back here with you in 2026 for the new Year. Happy New Year to everyone out there.
It’s been a little while too since we did a video together, since we did some screen shares together as well. So I’ve got a few stuff slides to show you today. Got a few requests as well. So thank you always for your input and for your feedback. Looking forward to this one here today. And like I said, it has been, you know, a couple of weeks now since the last video podcast. So forgive me if I’m getting caught up here with you. Jump around a little bit.
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You know, it was an exciting week this week and we’ve got a lot of good stuff going on. So first and foremost, I’m very grateful to be here with you for another year of the VRA Investing podcast, especially as we do expect this to be, you know, good year for the market and exciting year overall, you know, not just for our major indexes for a number of stocks out there. Of course, it’s a midterm year as well, so there’ll be no shortage of interesting items to cover in 2026. And wow, what a start it has been already. Again, just our first full week of trading and we got a lot of big stuff to cover here. Have you been tuning in to Kip’s podcast as well? I’ll recap a little bit of some of those, but you’ll know he’s done some great coverage this week. So if you’ve been tuning in, you know there’s a lot going on right now as we start off the year so quickly here. A little bit of what we’ll cover today and much more on top of this.
But we got some all time highs to close out the week is all of our major indexes finished significantly higher on the week this week. Really good week, especially the Small caps up 4.6% on the week. Great first full week of trading. We also got some economic data back today. I mean there’s really so much going on here. Kip covered this one yesterday. We’ll dive a little deeper into it as well as Trump Announced yesterday that his administration plans to buy 200 billion in mortgage backed securities. Got a little bit of inflation data to cover here with you as well.
And of course some headlines and some really good charts to cover to wrap up the week this week. So if you’re listening over the weekend, hopefully you enjoy it and gets you excited for what’s to come in 2026. So first and foremost, we’ll start with what we got back this morning is the latest look at jobs data. Really probably the first complete jobs data we’ve gotten in a while due to the government shutdown. You know, hey, no problem. We don’t really trust government data anyway. At the end of the day, as you’ll see in a minute, I’d much rather quote from truflation than CPI kind of data. And we’ll get to that here more in a minute.
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Uh, but this morning we found out US economy added 50,000 jobs in December, missing the forecast by a little bit there. But the unemployment rate fell to 4.4% from 4.5%. Now, of course, you know, we’re big believers in America, in American prosperity in America First. So we of course want to see a massive jobs number every quarter. But to see the unemployment rate fall again, that’s the win there. We would have liked to have seen a bigger number, but we think this is really just beginning to heat up here. And really I’ll get to this here more in a minute. But it’s just more evidence that the Federal Reserve remains offsides.
I was pretty surprised even, you know, the unemployment rate falling certainly, I guess can add a little bit to their position. I was surprised we didn’t see a little bit more action on what their act, their policy would be in the next meeting. Roughly a 95 chance right now, according to the CME Fed watch tool, that the Fed will remain paused here at their first meeting of the year. Thankfully, we still have a few weeks before we have to get back to Jay Powell. But hey, that’s another exciting factor that we’ll see this year. We’re finally getting rid of the Jerome Powell era of the Federal Reserve. Of course he was nominated to the position by Trump, but it is no secret he does not like President Trump. So I was renominated by the Biden administration thanks to the James o’ Keefe videos.
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We know most people at the Federal Reserve don’t like President Trump, which is a problem, right, because it’s not a federal institution and they have no reserves. So when you have, you know, a very powerful institution fighting against Your interests doesn’t really do a whole lot to help the Americans, everyday Americans when we have a, the institution of the Federal Reserve fighting against our interests. So it’d be great to get, you know, a more positive Federal Reserve going forward. So we’ll see. President Trump should be making an announcement hopefully pretty soon about which of the Kevins it will be. At least those are the two leaders as of right now. But again, back to the jobs data. We’ve seen it for a little bit of time now that the jobs market has struggled a little bit while inflation data continues to come down.
I mean, this is what we’ve said for a few years now, really from the peak of inflation under Biden. It was never going to be a straight light down, straight line down. But we see inflation as really by now a long, far off rear view mirror issue as we head in into this innovation revolution, which we think really is going to kick into high gear this year. It’s been our call really since we wrote the big bribe in 2022. This is the year we really kick into high gear. Innovation leads to deflation. You know, I think the Federal Reserve is really far behind the curve on this one. I’ll get to more of that in just a second.
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You know, one reason that they may not be ready to cut rates and let this economy really run hot, which we don’t see any signs that’s going to lead to a resurgence of inflation. That’s our view here. But wow. If you tuned in with us and again to Kip’s podcast this week, you know that our call for GDP has been for 5% growth. We said, you know, originally it’d be in the first half of the year. We updated it to the first quarter of this year. Now it’s looking like we might have already seen it in Q4 of last year. And so here’s my first screen share for you today.
The Atlanta Fed releasing their estimates here as of Wednesday, 5.1%. Yeah, that’s as of today, I guess, really down from 5.4% just yesterday. Wow. I mean that is an incredible number here. Kip said this as well. We’re looking for 8% GDP growth in the next two years. But Kip and I, as we talk every day before the podcast, we’re just discussing this and we laid out a few factors, some of we’ll get into in some future podcasts as well. Could we be on the low side? We were really some of the biggest bulls as far as GDP growth goes out there in the trunk.
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Trump Economic Miracle 2.0 as we came in to last year and Trump’s inauguration. Remember, we haven’t even been. Trump wouldn’t even inaugurated a full year ago yet. We’re coming up on that now. And look what we’ve seen so far. Okay, go ahead and zoom back out here. Q1 of last year when Trump got into office, we saw tariff mania, and we’ll get a ruling here soon from the Supreme Court. They delayed.
They’re not doing it today. You know, that’ll be coming sometimes in the next few weeks, possibly maybe a little later this year, we’ll see. But Q1 of last year, we actually saw negative growth, negative half a percent. Okay. And everyone, everyone, especially the mainstream economists out there, said that Q2 was going to be even worse. Well, we saw the pivot in April after Liberation Day, and Q2 was a rocket ship compared to Q1, coming in at plus 3.8%. Phenomenal quarter. Okay.
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Especially compared to the last decade. Plus, really from the Obama era, where 2% GDP growth was seen as magnificent. I remember I just caught a clip of that video this morning before Trump came into office. You know, Obama talking about, where is he going to get all these jobs from? Is he going to wave a magic wand? Well, is that what he’s done here? Is that what we’re seeing in GDP growth? No, it’s absolutely not a magic wand. It’s more of the invisible hand a little bit. Let Americans get back to work, unleash American businesses, deregulation, tax cuts, pro business policies. Could that be it? Of course it is. Right.
And I’m a sidetrack here a little bit. What we think we’re going to see in the coming years is so much American growth that these socialist countries out there and heavily regulated, especially in Europe, I mean, don’t even get me started on that. These hamstringing policies from their own governments really shooting themselves in the foot. American innovation and American growth is going to outpace them by so much that they’re going to have no choice but to adopt many of these policies. Um, and so to my point here, we think we might even be, or I think at least I won’t speak for Kip. I think it’s very possible that if things continue at this trajectory, that we could see double digit GDP growth before the end of Trump’s term here. That’s the kind of prosperity that we’re talking about. Many of the mainstream economists don’t even think even today that something like that is possible in the modern era.
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But it has happened before. It certainly has. It’s happened here in the US we’ve seen 14% GDP growth. Now, that was in the armament for World War II. But at the time, we saw similar money printing levels to what we’ve seen since the COVID era. Right. During the pandemic, we saw roughly 40% growth in our money supply. Where we’re at today, the trajectory of our economic growth is below trend for that level of money printing.
And as Brian Rich, who does some really good work, you’ve heard us talk about him here, as he’s pointed out, we’re at below trend growth for that level of money printing. And we would actually need to get back to near 14% GDP growth before the end of Trump’s term just to get back on track. Okay, now, if what we’re looking at here going forward again, the innovation revolution meets the roaring 2000s meets the Trump economic miracle 2.0, could something like that be possible? I’d say absolutely. So to continue here again, Q2 plus 3.8%, Q3 plus 4.3%. And now possibly Q4 at over 5%, coming in much quicker than we thought again, and no signs that this is causing more inflation to pop up. Truflation reading at just a point, 1 9%. Now, let me take a quick step back here because I do want to point out I had one more point that actually didn’t have saved on my screens here. So this is, is from a JP Morgan analyst talking about the monetary tsunami that’s upcoming here and why a higher money supply may not lead to an inflationary burst, and it’s due to a decline in the velocity of money.
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Okay. Moderating government spending, which is the primary driver of inflation. Okay. I know that the, the Keynesians out there, the current mainstream economists would not see that at all. Okay. But they’ve also been dead wrong on just about everything else. They said tariffs would be inflationary. That was wrong.
You know, they said that somehow economic growth would be inflationary and even wage growth would be inflationary. Now, maybe if it’s purely government money printing and government stimulus, if it’s all government jobs, wage, wage growth which produces nothing, then yes, that could be inflationary. But what this goes on to say from JP Morgan is that it’s private sector led, which is not inflationary. Okay? You can even see inflation decline in an environment like this. And we think that’s exactly what we’re looking at here. Again, you know, that we’ve really seen the Kinsey Keynesian era of economics being Ruled out at this point. If this continues on this path and you know, really being seen for the fraud that it is. And I have one more point to make here in a second, but with the Federal Reserve, you know, their current fed funds rate at 3 1/2 to 3.75, they’re incredibly offsized.
With inflation showing below 2%, possibly the employment, you know, good numbers. We saw the, the unemployment rate drop. That’s good to see. But we should be, we should let this run red hot. We’ve got to grow our way out of some of the problems that previous administrations have caused. We think Trump and team know this, right? Scott Bessant, as Kip talked about much this week, really an incredible pick so far for Treasury Secretary. You know, Howard Lutnick has echoed this as well. Stephen Myron has echoed this.
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The newest member of the Federal Reserve and even Stephen Miller as well. So many people in this administration. And that’s the big difference in Trump 2.0 is the people that he surrounded himself with. You know, when he gets in front of a camera now he’s with his team. Whether it’s, you know, JD Vance, Marco Rubio or any of the others that I just named, this looks like an entirely different Trump. One who’s much more confident, right? Not only because it’s his second term, you know, he’s not a politician first and foremost, so he had to get into, eased into it a little bit. And that’s what the first term was. Now this guy’s a true professional and has surrounded himself with some incredible people.
This looks like a calm, cool, collected, very sure of his next move as well. You know, if we can continue on this path, I mean, the sky really is the limit. So if we can get the Federal Reserve out of the way, you know, stop trying to trip up this economy. Who, man, you know, look out above. You know, Kip discussed this yesterday. So we’ll talk here for a second about the 200 billion in mortgage backed securities purchases. Now, I can admit government spending like this is not free market capitalism. Okay? That’s not the innovation revolution that is government stimulus.
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Right? But I would argue here that within today’s framework, this is this not the interventional, interventionalist economy that we’ve seen, whether it was under Biden or whether under Obama. Right. This is a nudge back in the right direction. And we saw it today, mortgage rates falling significantly. Who does that help the most? Well, it’s not the first America. They aren’t affected by having to go pay high rates for loans. It’s the person out there who’s looking to buy their first house, someone looking to buy a used car, paying way too high of rates. That is who these policies affect the most.
So 200 billion might sound like a large number, but I would say, considering the damage that has been done again over the last few decades, it’s a nudge in the right direction. Okay? The real key, again, as I said earlier, is unleashing the American worker, unleashing American businesses, done through deregulation, tax cuts, and ultimately a return to free market capitalism. Okay? This is again, a nudge to get us back in the right direction. And so for the Keynesians out there, for the bond market vigilantes, I’ve got a quote here. I’ve been sitting on this one for a while, and I just love it. I couldn’t even believe there’s a real quote. John Maynard Keynes was who wrote the modern book on economics. And anyone from the Austrian school of economics knows really how laughable some of the things that they argue and there are.
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But even Keynes on his deathbed, couldn’t avoid the invisible hand. Here’s what he said. I find myself more and more relying for a solution of our problems on the invisible hand, which I tried to eject from economic thinking 20 years ago. Even he, who worked his whole life to disprove Adam Smith’s invisible hand at the end of the day, had to say there. There’s something to this, right? And this is exactly what it is. When people can act in their own self interest, in other words, not necessarily saying that greed is good always, right? But when people act in their own self interest, they don’t want to go to jail, right? They want to make money. And how do you make money? You make money by serving others. This is exactly what we look to do here every day at the VRA is to serve and individual retail investors.
We want to help you to beat Mr. Market. It’s what we love to do. I love being on the research side of this. As you can tell, I’m a little worked up today, even because it’s been a few weeks since I’ve been here with you. And I was excited to come and do this as well as Kip is every day. We’re very grateful for the opportunity to do this every day. So that’s who we’re here for.
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We want to help you beat Mr. Market Year in and year out. We just wrapped up 19 out of 22 years since Kip founded the VRA that we have beaten the market. We think that we’re, you know, obviously we’re only one week in one full weekend, but that’s exactly our plan for this year. We think it’s going to be a very special year. We don’t think that anyone out there really is bullish enough. Now, of course, it is a little worrying as contrarians to see so many starting to jump on the bandwagon here of bullishness. Was it like 22 out of 22 analysts look for higher returns this year? We don’t think that’s going to remain the case.
Okay. We think one shakeout, you know, even 3 to 5% shakeout and these people are going to go right back to being the loudest bears out there. I’ve got some points on that to get to here in a little bit. But again, you know, it’s great to see this return to free market capitalism meets the end. You know, add that one into the theme now as well. Meets the innovation revolution, meets the Trump economic miracle. 2.0 meets the roaring 2000s. We’ve compared this period a lot to the 1995 to 2000.com melt up.
The NASDAQ during that time rallied 585%. Even to today we’re up what, 136% or so, excuse me, from the bear market lows which we call to the day on October 13, 2022. Those are good returns, but that’s nothing compared to what we saw during the dot com era. And we think that this bull market has the potential to surpass that. And it really was those final years where you just see the parabolic kind of moves higher. We think that’s what we have in store for this market. So that being said, let’s take a quick look at today’s market action. Good action here today we saw the NASDAQ leading the way, exactly what you want to see, up 8/10 of 1%.
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Followed there by the small caps. Again, small caps up 4.6% on the week this week. That’s the kind of action that we really want to see. This is broadening action that we’re seeing from the market. This isn’t just the MAG7 that everyone talks about. Oh, it’s just seven stocks holding up this market. No. We even saw equal weight ETFs hitting all time highs today as well.
Or as some call them, the other 493 stocks in the S&P 500, those as a whole hit an all time high today as well. This broadening action we think continues from here as well. Leadership can still be the Mag 7. That’s just fine. We’ve seen a number of unloved tech names that have been unloved for years having huge moves in this first week of trading. All right, next up against small caps, all time high. S and P 500 all time high. As we work to get above 7,000.
Just shy of that now it’s 6,966. And the Dow Jones also technically an all time high today. Not quite the intraday level, but this was an all time closing high. And so let me cover these here quickly because we saw a lot of all time highs. That is so you heard those here in the U.S. s&P, small caps, Dow Jones, the equal weight S&P 500 all time high. But it’s not just here in the US is taking place globally. This is part of the global reflation trade that Kip talked about as well.
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Also point out another Dow theory buy signal as the transports hit an all time high today. So it’s not just tech names either. Now I’ll get to that in our sectors as we saw some value sectors, you know, things like materials industrials, you know, at or near all time highs as well. Again broadening action and it’s taking place internationally. The DAX all time high today, the Nikkei, Japan’s market is just shy of an all time high. But we saw a few of Japan’s ETFs also hitting all time highs today. You know, and we had a lot to prep for today because it has been a few weeks since I was on with you. I’m sure there are many more of them and we’ll get to some more here in this podcast.
So again we see that as part of the global reflation trade, you know, these groups that have been unloved that begin to participate. That’s when we again get into this very exciting phase of this bull market. If you’ve been with us here for a while, our call remains that this runs through 2030 and beyond. Then for our sectors, which I’ll get to more in a minute. But we saw the semis, exactly what you want to see as well. I’ll come back to this here in a second. But the semis all time high. Gold miners, all time high.
Materials all time high. I mean all over. Okay. Regional banks, all time high. Finish lower on the day. But intraday all time high. And now while many analysts are bullish on this market here, these are the kind of headlines that we love to see. Check out this from Bloomberg.
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So not the Economist, which Is, you know, notorious for publishing headlines. I think it was a few years ago they were talking about the dollar was going to soar, dollar tanked. You know, all kinds of headlines that they’ve done that just absolutely missed. So beware of the bubble. What bubble? Again, the Nasdaq’s up 136, 36% or so from the bear market lows. This would be the most boring bubble of all time. This hasn’t even begun to, to inflate yet. So we love to see headlines like this despite the analyst bullishness out there.
Okay, now back to our major indexes here for a second. We’re also seeing to the broadening aspect. Small caps here. Let me get this going. Breaking out from a multi year trend line here. Let me get my face out of the way. There you go again. Multi year trend line here of outperformance from the Q’s.
Okay, this is small caps versus the NASDAQ 100 that we want to see continue again. Doesn’t mean that the Q’s can’t perform great as well. But we want to see the broader aspects of this market really start to participate. And it also bodes very well for our view of continued GDP growth because small caps are primarily US based companies. Now one other relative strength chart here for you. One that we share often semis to the s and P500. Let me see if I can zoom in here a little bit for you there. That’s a little bit better.
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This is what we’ve keyed off of for all of 20, 25 and beyond. Okay, that was the bottom from the tariff mania lows and look, it’s just been straight up of the semis outperforming the S&P 500. That is very bullish. You want to see, you know, tech leading the way and there’s a lot of tech in the S and P. But you want to see the semis leading the market. When the semis are leading, you don’t want to. That’s not a market that you want to bet against. So this is a very good sign here.
Again, another breakout here, even after a couple of days of consolidation. Right back up, okay, to another 52e high of outperformance from the semis which hit an all time high today as well. And exactly what you want to see from this market. Now we’ll get into a couple of factors we’ll quickly cover. Running a little long here. I know it’s a Friday, we’ll let you go here. But again, very excited to be Back here with you to the downside, right, it’s not all roses out there. We would have liked to have seen better internals on the day today on the NYSE, pretty good advanced decline just shy of 2 to 1 positive.
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Now on the Nasdaq on the other hand, you know, nicely positive, but nowhere near 2 to 1 only positive by about 500 issues. Really. You know, for this area with this big of a move on the day to day we’re up eight tenths of 1%. You like to see better numbers there now 52 week highs, lows, I mean right at or so 10 to 1 positive on the NYSE, just 21 stocks hitting 52 week lows to 212, hitting 52 week highs on the NASDAQ. Nicely positive as well. Three and a half to one positive there. Almost four to one positive really. And then volume, you know, positive on the nyc but came in almost dead even on the nasdaq.
Not our favorite thing to see on a day like today. But Kip and I also were talking about this before the podcast that you know, in this broadening action kind of a market, it really is, you can make plenty of money in your indexes. But this is where we start to see a real stock pickers market start to shine, where people start to go to those unloved names that I mentioned earlier that are really, really looking good right now. But finding companies with big short interest, you know, like we saw in the Gamestop saga. Could we see some of that in tech? We think absolutely. We can see some stuff like that, some short squeeze kind of moves that are going to surprise a lot of people. But again, you’re not the kind of internals we would have loved to have seen. But you know, mostly positive, I mean positive across the board still, even if just barely on NASDAQ volume.
All right, next up here are sectors on the day today. We finished with nine out of our 11 sectors higher on the day today. Some of the all time highs I mentioned earlier, we’re led by materials, all time high today. We’re followed there by the utilities, which, you know, a lot of people think of the utilities as a very boring area and they typically are but very slow movers. But as we see the new grid build out, okay, whether that’s from nuclear or just overall upgrading our power systems to power AI data centers and things of the sort, utilities could get some love and could start to become more of a growth area potentially. Okay, it might be a little bit of a long shot. You know, there’s Tons of regulation in that space. But again, the deregulation theme.
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The utilities are going to need some of that to grow at the pace that we need them to grow to keep up with the demand again from data centers and other tech areas as well. We think we’re going to see a lot of innovation, whether it’s from battery storage, nuclear, you know, I’d be fine with solar as well. Just stay away from wind at this point. Then after that we saw industrials very close to an all time high. Consumer discretionary, all time high. Communication services right there as well. So we had a number of our sectors finishing at or near all time highs. 52 week highs.
Very good day to day overall again, 9 out of 11 finishing positive on the day. And then real estate, okay. Which we talk about here often, that we don’t really track the S and P real estate sector because it’s mostly made up of REITs. We track the home builders here. And the huge news, I won’t dive too much deeper into it now. Again, the 200 billion in mortgage backed securities from the Trump administration. You know, here is a quote from Trump. I’m instructing my representatives to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds.
This will drive mortgage rates down, monthly payments down, and make the cost of owning a home more affordable. Right. And right on cue, the very next day today we saw mortgage rates hitting their lowest levels in over three years since 2022. And that is absolutely what matters most. So you know, Trump knows that getting the 30 year mortgage rates under 5%, it’s going to turbocharge the housing market. Really an unloved area of this market. Kip talked about it on Charles Payne just recently. And I don’t know if I’ve seen really anybody else bullish on housing.
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It has not been a sector that has been in favor. And I think very few people really understand the macro story here that we talk about here a lot. You know, we wrote the Big Bribe. We’re at roughly one third of Americans own their home outright. We’re not 40% of Americans own their home outright. Paid off their homes, okay. Average home equity 71%. There’s over $35 trillion in home equity right now.
You know what that means? Consumers, homeowners have so much untapped liquidity in their homes right now. These are all time high readings for home equity. Right. Just another feather in the cap of the liquidity coming for this market. XHP, the Homebuilder ETF was up a massive 5.18% on the day to day. I mean, that is a monster move. Up 8.27% on the week this week. Incredible stuff.
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And again, I don’t know if there was anybody going into this year who was really that bullish on housing. Our two laggards on the day from our sectors, defensive, you know, just fine. The financials and health care finally here for today. Let me see, run one chart here for you. I thought I had one more, but you know what, we’re running a little long here anyway. We had one more all time high, which I’ll get to here in a second. For our VRA commodity watch, we now have gold, $4,500 an ounce. What an incredible year 2025 was for gold.
You know, and Kip talked about this, I believe it was yesterday as well. You know, people have been shocked by this move. If you’ve been with us here for a long time, you know that we, we haven’t been shocked by this move. As a matter of fact, we think it has a lot higher to go. This is a really finding a new normal for these commodities which have been so manipulated over the years. So to see gold up 9/10 of 1% on the day again, $4500 an ounce, what just $57 shy of an all time high. And exactly what you want to see from this group. Just like you want to see the semis outperforming tech.
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We saw GDX up 1.11% also hitting an all time high today. Silver up 5.5% on the day to $79.34 an ounce. Also not far away from its all time high above 80. Copper up 1.8% on the day to $5.90 an ounce. And oil just below $60 a barrel still. But gas prices, man, how much have gas prices come down? Crude now at $59.12 a barrel. And finally here for today. You know, Kip has covered this one a lot.
I don’t have the numbers exactly in front of me, but when you see a down year in bitcoin like we saw in 2025, the next year has seen monster gains now, not, not fantastic here today, now down 4, 10 of 1%. But we are back above $90,000 of Bitcoin at 90,690. We do remain bullish on bitcoin here as well. And we do have, you know, our newest crypto pick in the VRA portfolio that we look for a strong 2026 from as well. If you’re not already a VRA member, come and join us@vra letter.com we’ve got a two free week trial coming out right now or going on right now. And you know, we’ve gone in through a lot of meetings. Our team here, we just got back from a conference in Orlando. We’ve got a lot of exciting stuff we’re working on here for 2026 for our members.
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Some new tools potentially that we’ll be adding to our system. So we’re looking forward to bringing those to you as the year rolls on. One thing at a time. But yeah, it’s going to be a fantastic year. So come and join us. We’d love to have you with us here at the vra. We, we love what we do. You know, we have a lot of fun and thank you as always for being here with us.
And also, you know, got any questions, please, please feel free to send them our way. You can send them to support at VRA Insider and we can address them here on the podcast as well. But folks, that is all that we have time for here today.
Please be sure to subscribe to receive our VRA podcast every day at the market close. You can sign up@ vraletter.com click the podcast link at the top and we’d love to have you with us. Thanks again for tuning in. Until next time. We’ll you see see you back here tomorrow for on Monday. Excuse me. Have a great weekend everyone. We’ll see you back here on Monday for the close.