In today's episode, Kip breaks down a volatile but promising week in the markets, highlighting the NASDAQ’s eight-day winning streak, remarkable rallies in the semiconductors and transports, and key indicators signaling continued market strength. We’ll dig into why contrarian signals are flashing, how global events and Federal Reserve policies are shaping investment opportunities, and spotlight the role of “smart money” in driving recent moves. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.

Don’t look back because the market is closed. Good Friday afternoon, everyone. Kip Herriage here with the daily VRA investing podcast. Hope you had a good day today. Hope your week was good as well. Certainly a good week for the markets. We’ll talk about that today.

A little bit soft today, but NASDAQ again was higher. That’s eight straight days. The market had been on a seven straight day winning streak. That was broken today just slightly. So Dow Jones down half percent, Nasdaq down one tenth of a percent. And the small caps down, what was this? Two tenths of a percent. So, you know, again, it’s been, it’s been a really good run from last Monday’s lows. If you’ve been joining us here, if you’re new, by the way, welcome.

[00:00:42]:
Great having you here. Been joining us here not this past Monday, but the one before it. Right. I remember doing the podcast that day and I said, I think these are the lows today. Felt, felt like a flush. We came off again another weekend of war. The markets had opened a little higher and then got tanked. Midday, Nasdaq dropped to minus 400.

It felt to me like something was gonna start breaking. That was when I, that’s, that was when I was my most concerned. And then boom, just like that word broke that, hey, we may have peace talks. The market finished slightly positive on the day. Even a big comeback. Great smart money hour. And that started the trend of strong smart money hours with the semis leading. I’ll talk more about that in a moment because the semis folks did it again today, up 1.5%.

Just a house on fire. Again. This is a big tell. It’s a real big tell. Check this out. While the war was going on, the transports, we love them to call them the trannies. Almost got banned from Twitter for that. The trannies.

[00:01:50]:
I do love that word. Never used to matter, right? Never used to matter. Then it became a word you can’t say, which is of course why y’ all want to say it. While war is going on, what did the trannies do? They’ve only been up 16% over the last two weeks. What did the semis do again? Last two, three weeks, up 22%. While everybody’s worried about the correction, everybody thinks this war is going to get nothing. But worse, oil’s going to 200. You know, if you watch the media, it’s such a great tell.

It’s such a great contrarian tell. Especially cnn, they’re just furious that this may be ending. Matter of fact, they’re not accepting it. They’re absolutely certain that this war is going to get worse and peace fires is going to fall apart. Maybe, maybe it will. I think the market’s telling us it’s not going to. We’ve been telling you that oil was, was peaking and was showing signs of really beginning to fall quite a bit. Well it was down another one and a half percent today.

Again the severe backwardation oil that, that of everything we saw that was the tell. Right. When oil was 119 on Monday I think it was. But December oil futures were at 74. Right. You just don’t see that energy stocks were going down, defense stocks were going down. Again. This is, this is the very smart money.

[00:03:20]:
The insiders that are taking action that words filters out and spreads the, the, the, the worst inside traders of all the elite of the elite that get the data before anybody else does and trade on it. You know, inside government, inside central banks, etc. Yeah, they start aggressively moving against the primary. It was a counter true trade at that time. Get higher oil prices, et cetera, et cetera, higher defense stocks. And then the technicals take over but the technicals pick it up and then all the technical traders start to pile onto that trade lower. And so that’s how this happens. That’s why when people say the markets are smarter than all is combined, that’s what it’s talking about.

It’s really the insiders that are smarter than all of us because they know exactly what’s going to happen. They get the news before we do. How do you think they become so wealthy? Right. Look at all these inside traders we have in our own government. These congressmen and women getting obscenely wealthy. The Nancy Pelosi’s and a lot of Republicans in that list. Well, right, Dan Crenshaw, a lot of Republicans on this list, A lot of socialists on this list because they, they only want everybody else to be poor while they’re wealthy. That is socialism.

The elites ruling everything. That’s what they want for us here. Look at the Irish rising up. This is a story I’m going to dig into this weekend. But you know, if you’re seeing the headlines like I am, the Irish people are said no more. They’re in the streets and the government’s talking about getting the military out to, to, to, to try to stop these protests. You know, it should be happening all throughout Europe or at least parts of Europe, UK et cetera. There are some great countries in Europe that are, that are.

[00:05:08]:
They’re not playing that game. Right. Poland Hungary, no way. Not going to do it. Pulling their support for Ukraine, not. Not agreeing to let illegals in. They’re fighting the EU with everything they got. And then we have Canada and the UK which have rolled over.

It’s just so depressing. I don’t want to talk about it. But again, Ireland, Irish people, love you. Wish I was there to. To. To protest with you. And we wish you nothing but great success. Maybe it’ll wake these Moribon population up there.

Again, people are just so. This is no accident. People are stressed out, on medication. Social media is driving people absolutely crazy. I see it. I’d love to tell this story properly, but we have a member of our family, and I would never, ever say her name. We have a member of a family that has just gone off the deep end every day, posting outrageous things against Christianity, against Republicans, against conservatives. I mean, she knows us all.

[00:06:23]:
My wife’s family is big and all welcoming, right? We really, genuinely don’t talk about politics much. They just love to get together and have fun. No, she can’t do that. Anyway, social media and the propaganda of the financial. Of the. Of the mainstream media is just driving people crazy. It’s happened on both sides, but the left, of course, has really gone insane. Many, many years ago, just after I met Wayne Root, I heard him say for the first time, liberalism is a mental disorder.

I laughed. I thought he was kidding. I thought it was just a good throwaway line. And one day I was like, so was that a. Were you kidding about that? He goes, no. He goes, liberalism is a mental disorder. These people are not. Right.

Of course, now Wayne’s calling for a national divorce. I’m sure you’ve seen this, and he’s been saying that for many years, and he’s, again, dead serious about that as well. Wayne gets a lot of calls, right? I’ll give him that. He’s. He’s ahead of the time. And he’s, of course, got a direct hotline to. To Donald Trump, as does Grant Stitchfield, another guy we’ve been working with. I was just on Grant’s podcast yesterday, actually aired today, and on his show a couple times a week.

[00:07:39]:
Again, these are great, you know, conservative American patriots that are standing up, you know, and they’re doing it loudly. But the. The genesis of the reason that most Americans are just too tired to care, the genesis of that is the Federal Reserve. I haven’t. I haven’t said this in a while, so if you’re new here, I think it’s an important message to hear. I Said this on stages all over the world for many years with Wealth Master wmi, Wealth Masters International. We did investment conferences all over the world. And this was one of my.

Matter of fact this, what I’m about to say was in every single presentation I did over an eight, nine year period, a lot of them, you know, we’re talking about all together, had to be a couple hundred. A lot of work, tiring. We ran them all ourselves. Great staff, though. And I went through this analogy because I know people have never heard this. I think this is what got me all my bank accounts banned at JPMorgan Chase. We had like 12 bank accounts, been there for forever with them up, and they just canceled me. You know, I was, I was pretty honest about them, about the Federal Reserve, about Warren Buffett, the one of the best insider traders that never ever has gotten ratted out.

So I was doing my part to help make that happen. Dear old granddad, the guy that said he coined the phrase derivatives are weapons of mass financial destruction. He coined that phrase in like 2001, and everybody called him a genius for it. Well, what happened when the financial crisis happened, 2007, 2008, had the government not come in and bailed the banks out with TARP and all the QE that followed, Right. Had that not happened, dear old granddad, Warren Buffett would have been out of business. He had 40 at one point, $42 billion in unrealized losses due to what? Derivatives. The guy who coined the phrase and said don’t do it was heavy in them. So, you know, but as far as the Federal Reserve, this is a strong tell about why.

[00:09:59]:
Why everybody’s worn out, too tired to care, distracted again. That’s what they want. That’s how they take everything we have. Just wear you down. When I grew up, my parents never made a lot of money. My dad worked for the prison system. My mom at one point drove a school bus. A little lady, right, had to be on that bus every day.

We did not have money, right? But you know what, we didn’t know it at the time, right? But my mom most of the times didn’t work. Now she used to do some babysitting and odd jobs here and there. Just bring some extra money always. They taught me a great work ethic, I’ll tell you that much. But on a low income of my father. And he was high up in the prison system here in Texas, but you know, again, they just don’t, the jobs don’t pay. But he was well respected. He was a leader in the Community.

My dad. My dad. The rest is. Rest in peace, dad. I’m convinced to this day that the jabs killed him. My father, I think, lost his way and all of a sudden started trusting the government and just. He was a big Trump fan, took the jab, took multiple jabs, and then about a year later had a hard fall like a lot of people have. And he never recovered from it.

[00:11:19]:
Six days he was gone. You know, it’s a discussion we can’t even have. And that’s out of my family because a lot of my family, not my mother, but a lot of my family are liberals. And that’s what’s crazy, right? They supported the jabs and hated Trump. This was the Trump jab. He’s the father of it. That never made any sense to me. Here I am, really, Cindy, me and the boys, you know, we’re the only ones in our family that did not take the jabs, period.

That, that we know of. Because it’s. Why would you. It’s experimental. What are you talking about? Trying to force people to take them or lose your job. That’s criminal. No way. What do you.

I was like, how are you agreeing to do that? Why are you doing this? And they were coming after my Cindy so hard because my wife has rheumatoid arthritis and has for 33 years now. And if you know what that is and the medications you take again, we’re. She’s off of almost all that now. But when you take prednisone for 25, 30 years, you know, you probably know what I’m talking about. Very debilitating. But she’s such a strong person, works out every day. She’s, she’s, she’s an absolute rock star. I’m so fortunate to have found her.

[00:12:31]:
I married up big time. I’m telling you, I married up. Great family. But my side of the family just loved it. Loved the jabs. I never understood how that happened. So anyway, back to about the American family being destroyed. Too tired to pay attention to what really matters.

My mom, my parents didn’t make much money, but my mom stayed home with us. Generally speaking, she was home. And we got the traditional family unit. That doesn’t happen much anymore, does it? Why is that? It’s the Federal Reserve. Why does it take two incomes, at least now, two incomes to make the same take home money that one income took 30 years ago? Right. You know, 1971, the dollar came off the gold standard. That’s when the insanity started. Of course, it’s only gotten genuinely insane.

Since then. But it’s the Federal Reserve. If people are going to be mad at something, it should be the Federal Reserve. It’s a Federal Reserve that’s destroyed the purchasing power of a dollar. If you know your history. Federal reserve created in 1913. What a horrible year. Worst president ever.

[00:13:50]:
Woodrow Wilson. We got the irs, we got the Federal Reserve. They changed our election system for senators. It was a horrible year. All under Woodrow Wilson. Again, worst president ever. Yep. Worse than Obama.

He’s got started all this. So worse than Biden. Anyway, since 1913, Federal Reserve, the US dollar has lost down 90. I think it’s 98% of its value. This is why cash is trash. This is why I’ve always recommended save in gold, please people. So we beg people, save in gold first recommended 2003 at 350, silver at 5 bucks an ounce. And we recommend saving in gold, not in fiat currency because again, your money’s just being destroyed every year by this silent inflation of the devaluation of our currency.

So it’s because of that loss of purchasing power that both have to work. And that’s what destroyed the family unit, which means it’s what’s destroyed most people’s ability to have the energy to fight back. You know, so if we’re going to be mad at somebody, it should be the Federal Reserve and central banking system. That’s where all, that’s what all of this is rooted in. I’m talking about all of it is rooted in the vast majority of problems that we have as a society today. It’s central banking. Ron Paul’s right in the Fed. Had high hopes under Trump that might happen.

[00:15:15]:
You know, he’s been, he’s, he’s disappointed a lot of us. He certainly disappointed me. So love the guy. I know where we’d be without him as president, but there are some things I thought that he would address. And look, he’s only just over his first year. He’s still got time. But you know, it’s time to come home, bring our boys and girls home. Let’s stop this stuff and this war business.

Let’s focus on Americans. And solve these problems. Get the jabs off the market. Go after the criminals of January 6, the real criminals, the planners of this, the stuff coming out this week is just mind blowing. Turns out the FBI was going through practice runs of this. Practice runs like they had 270 agents going through drills months before. This was all planned. This is how they were going to fight.

You know, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the Rigged election. Right. Change everyone’s attention, make it about, you know, trying to, trying to take down the government. Right. It was all planned, complete inside job. Sickening, isn’t it? Absolutely sickening. These are the things we want to see corrected. All the criminality throughout our system, primarily through in government.

[00:16:41]:
And hard to do that, you know, when your 24, 7 attention is focused on Iran or Ukraine. So again, very hopeful for the next. What is it now? Just over two and a half years, Is that what it is? Two and a half years of his reign that he can get things turned around, but he needs to. He’s losing a lot of key support. A lot of key support. But again, this war’s got to end. And by the way, I think it has. We’ve been talking with you about that here.

I think for all intents purposes the war is over. We’ve been saying it now for a couple weeks actually, since the lows of last Monday. I think the markets know that. And again, we had some softness today. We broke our winning streak. But not for the Nasdaq, not for the semis again up 1 1/2% today. I shared this chart on Twitter today. This, this is just crazy.

The semis, our favorite relative strength chart. And we love doing relative strength charts. It tells you like inside baseball what’s really going on where the real leadership is. Only relative string charts can do that. And so we compare, we use these a lot. And as you know, and I’ll show this again Monday because it just hit another all time high today. The semi SPF 100 just broke out to another all time high. Never broke down during this 10% correction.

[00:17:54]:
S 513%. Nasdaq never broke down semis, never cracked that trend line that you see if you’re with us here. You know that trend line that I show over because it’s so, so amazing when you see a relative string chart and a trend line that has been touched four or five times throughout the year and never gave given way. Now that’s normal for regular charts, right? You see that all the time. But for relative strength chart to do that, it’s rare, you don’t see it, but it’s a tell. It tells you it’s a whole lot of smart money watching exactly that. And they’re buying when it hits that trend line. That’s essentially what we’ve been doing with the semis.

We’re now very long Nvidia one of our ten baggers here, up two and a half percent. So he’s been on A nice run. But again from the depths of the war. The semis up 22%. Trainees up 16%. There’s your tell. Bitcoin also up 22% from the night the war started. We’ve talked about this a lot with you.

First in, first out. We, we, we, we saw this right away, right, right away. Bitcoin first started going down in October of last year. It peaked at 126. Started down, led the software stocks, momentum stocks lower. Software stocks still getting crushed today. I down another two and a half percent today. It, it is crazy.

[00:19:17]:
Thankfully, we don’t have any, any positions in those. I don’t understand the destruction here. At some point, this is going to be a great buy. It’s the AI story, of course AI is going to destroy these companies apparently. But bitcoin first to go down last October led the market lower. And then the night the war started at 59,700, Bitcoin bottomed exactly that. Exactly. When the first missile struck, bitcoin down to 97, boom, right back up.

Hasn’t challenged that level again. Now up 22% in three. What is it, three weeks, four weeks. I guess that’s a tell. First in, first out. Really like bitcoin here. Really like it a lot. Last now 73,200 as I speak.

I believe that bitcoin is about to go on one of those runs, one of those infamous runs that bitcoin’s had. The, think about it, it’s completely washed out. If you follow the fear and greed index on bitcoin, it was like extreme fear for three, four weeks, maybe longer even. I don’t really pay attention to that, frankly, because I like the fear and greed index for the markets. I don’t know that I trust the one for bitcoin at extremes, though. That’s when it matters. And this certainly was an extreme. The public finally given up retail finally given up.

[00:20:32]:
Right? I think, I don’t think I know what happened with the Epstein stuff. Came out, where it was. He said, yeah, we, we created it. Yeah, I’ll bet. Pedophiles created. I don’t believe, I don’t believe any of that. I don’t. I think I do know who created it.

I, I think I’m very confident in this. It was the intelligence community, you know, in nsa, CIA, whatever combination of. And the reason I know that’s true is that the banking system again under the Federal Reserve would have never allowed the competition that is bitcoin to their system. They wouldn’t have allowed it how could they stop it? Because you kept. Wait a minute, it’s on the blockchain. They can’t stop that. I hear that all the time. Oh, really? All they had to do was stop allowing Bitcoin funds to be used through bank accounts.

You, you, we see you moving money into Bitcoin. We’re closing your account. That’s all they would have had to do. And bitcoin would have never gotten off the ground. It would have died on the vine. It might have been a cult kind of investment maybe, you know, again, money launderers and things like that. But would it have gone from essentially zero to 126,000 in 15 years or whatever it was? No, never. So it was a creation of the intelligence community.

[00:21:51]:
I say that with high confidence. Of course. There’s no, there’s no, I have no, no facts on that. That’s just a strong instinct. And, and I would bet a lot of money on if I could, if they, Somebody said, kip, okay, we’re going to tell you the truth. We have the evidence. How much are you willing to bet on it? I would bet my entire home on this. That’s how confident.

I’m serious. That’s how confident I am. Because follow the money. This would never have been allowed to even get off the ground. And now everyone’s buying into it. And I think that’s one of the big reasons Bitcoin is about to explode. Higher. Finally, again, again, it’s washed out sentiments in the toilet.

And now finally, a lot of these big brokerage firms that had not allowed. Crazy, right. Had not allowed their clients to buy bitcoin. Some of the biggest in the world this week was Morgan Stanley that finally allowed their financial advisors to sell it to their clients. Of course, they have their own. Right. Fidelity, same thing. Vanguard finally allowed it.

[00:22:48]:
They said they’d never do it. That interview with their CEO. Oh, oh, no, that’s not who we are. Here we are a year and a half later and now they’re put, they’re hawking like crazy. So a lot of new money. It’s going to start coming in, I think, into a bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. And yeah, I think this, this next move could be explosive. Clearly back through the old highs of 126.

This is going to be that move. You know, I really. That’s how we’re positioned. We’re looking for that kind of a move. And I think importantly, we track liquidity plays. Right. If you follow the liquidity, the key liquidity, investments, then you pretty much know which way the market’s going to go because it’s all. The market’s all about supply, demand, liquidity.

Right? So we track these liquidity indicators. They’re the ones that lead both ways, right? That’s how you. Which ones are they? Well, they’re the ones that lead both up and down. What’s leading higher now? The semis. A liquidity indicator, Bitcoin liquidity indicator, Gold liquidity indicator. Of course, gold got smoked. We’re now finding out that’s because turkey sold a huge amount of gold to support their currency. They, they owned a lot of gold.

[00:24:04]:
Well, they not so much anymore. So again, the floor is in for. But again, those are our liquidity indicators. And again, they’re all, they’re all pointing to upside. So those are great tells to follow if you’re looking for some tells. Semis, bitcoin, gold and of course the Miners League goal. So there’s another one, but if I had to pick just two, it is right now it’s in this order. The semis and bitcoin, those are liquidity tells.

If you’ve got a lot of exposure in the market and you start seeing those fall, maybe take some off the table, right? That’s a very simplistic way to catch moves. If you don’t, if you want to catch the top and bottom, that’s how you do it. And again, semis, rock stars get up every day from last Monday’s lows. But again, another one and a half percent today. Up 22% in, what is this, two weeks, three weeks, call it. All right, what else today? Oh, again, why was the market a little soft today? How about the obvious one? This is pretty crazy. During this entire war, Monday, Tuesday, never settled on Monday. Monday, Tuesday and Wednesdays have been the strongest days.

Thursday, Fridays have been the weakest. Why is that? Everybody’s worried about what’s going to happen on the weekend. Everybody knew that Trump loved, you know, aggressive military action on the weekends. Something could go horribly wrong. And then when it didn’t, Monday was boop, straight up, right? So muddy Tuesday, Wednesday. That’s why today’s Friday. It just kind of hit me. That’s why the market was a little soft today.

[00:25:33]:
So that means if there’s any good news from these peace talks at all over the weekend, and I have no idea if there will be, I like the fact that J.D. vance is there. I like that a lot. Because we’re not going to have the hyperbolic Donald Trump there. Trump wants this over yesterday. I Shared this this morning. I, I, I, I, I love stuff like this, right, Because I pay attention to things like that that are interesting to me. Right.

I wrote this up this morning. This is hard data. I mean this is, anyone can pull this up, put the two and two together, but I’ve seen no one else do it. But combined in Trump’s two terms, all right, from first 2016 and reelected in 2024, we’ve now seen four hardcore short term moves lower with the brunt of the damage taking place in four weeks. So four, four times each one, about four weeks. What were those four times, by the way? In all of these, the market was doing great and then got slaughtered below the 200 day moving average. And again, short order, right? Three, four weeks, maybe four and a half. But right in that ballpark, they were the 2018 Jerome Powell Market meltdown hiking race in December when no one’s around, get Trump.

That’s what that was. Worst fourth quarter, worst December average ever. Worse than Great Depression. 2020, we know that was the pandemic, right? The lockdowns, that was over in four weeks, basically April and then boom, vertical, V shaped bottom, right? Same thing in 18, V shaped bottom. From the December 24 lows, nothing but up, that’s two for two. Last year, the tariff mania, same thing, three, four weeks, market gets crushed well below the 200 day. A lot of market timers just sold at the lows because that’s, that was their methodology. You’re below the 200 day, we’re out, right? And look, that used to be ours, but not anymore.

[00:27:39]:
I mean, this is a repeating pattern you got to pay attention to. Now if you stay below the 200 day for more than a month or something, the market’s telling you something, right? But we get these washouts, right? With sentiment getting destroyed, short selling exploding, right? That all happened so quickly. And that’s a tell. This can be short term. So again, 2018, 2020, 2025 and again this year with a war. So as I wrote this morning, it looks very much like Trump’s attention span from market Cornate carnage appears to be about four weeks, which is why they call it the Trump put, because he’s only going to take so much of it and then he’s getting, he’s going to bend. And I mean that, that’s four for four. You know, I think we’re getting some pretty.

If it happens again. Look, if we have another situation that happens and it just comes out of the blue and it seems crazy, like why is this happening? I think I’m going to be more tempted to pay more attention to the downside, maybe with some puts, Maybe some leverage ETFs to the downside, maybe taking profits and some things. Because again, if these are going to last four weeks, why subject these are, these were four painful weeks in all of our lives. I know they were for mine. And we had to go through it four times as 2018. Right. During Trump’s reign. I don’t, I don’t mean that quite as it sounds.

During his two terms there have been more thousand point updates by far than any president ever. But that means there’s been far more destruction that’s taking place. Again, extremely volatile. I fought, I’ve said this for a long time, Tyler too. I fought no one, I fought no one for wanting nothing to do with these markets. The volatility is not for everybody, but we kind of feed off that. That gives us our opportunities. You know, the price of mission for investing is volatility, especially when Trump’s resident.

[00:29:36]:
That’s just what it is. But again, the thing is when the lows are in, when Trump pivots, adios, he’s done with it. And I think that is exactly why this war is over. That’s why Vance is there. I think, I think, I think Iran would have to be start bombing Israel and the rest of their global Gulf state partners. I think that neighbors, I think they’d have to start mass bombing. Honestly I do. Before Trump would even put, put our men and women back in harm’s way again.

It’s time to end this time in all of this nonsense. Let’s come home, take care of America. You do that and you pass the America act, you might have a chance to win. The midterms might. Okay, what else? A lot of, a lot of upside reasons for this market in the short term. Short covering again. We talked about this lobby here. The institutional short selling right has been hot and heavy.

Most institutions the shortest they’ve ever been. Just, just very near to the tariff mania lows. Right. That was another V shaped bottom. Of course this looks like it’s going to be as well. So they’ve got to cover the shorts and then go long. Well, it took them five weeks to get this short, so it’s not going to happen overnight. There’s going to be a constant bid under the markets.

[00:31:06]:
That’s why, that’s why bad news won’t matter. Bad news because the shorts, a lot of, a lot of power in this, right? They’re going to be, they’re Going to, every time the market goes lower, they’ll be buying right. Then they have to go long as well. That’s, that’s, that’s a twofer. All right. That’s a lot of rocket fuel for this market. And then of course, you know, next Wednesday, I think it is Wednesday, big banks start reporting the gist of really kicks off Q1 earnings as we, we believe a lot of continue front running again into that expected earnings to be really, really good. I think, you know, analysts keep raising their estimates, companies keep raising their guidance.

It’s gonna be good year. It’s gonna be very good year for the economy. And ultimately that’s what matters. Markets driven by the economy, GDP growth and corporate earnings. That’s what drives the market. That’s the supply and demand we talk about. Last thing, I’ll share and I’ve shared this every day with you now. This is made every day for two weeks because it’s that important, right? In a midterm election year, once a correction ends and ours has the SB500 then has an average gain of 38% over the next 12 months.

That is some good data right there. We take, will we not take 30 or 38% of the next. I think it’s even more than that. I think we’ll end up this year up 30%. That’s been our call from the beginning of the year. This really could be a melt up rest of the year. All the, all the. Bring our boys and girls home.

[00:32:41]:
Stop with the nonsense. Everything else is in place. All of us Trump economic miracle, innovation revolution and ocean liquidity. 22 trillion into money supply. 8 trillion in money markets. That’s a lot of cash and cash equivalents that’s got to come into this market. When the market starts going higher again, when rates start going down. 38, 37, 38 trillion dollars in home equity.

These are all time highs. 38 trillion home equity. Imagine that. All time high. Of course Also that means 40% of Americans have no mortgage. They pay off their homes. All time high. Average home equity 71%.

All time high. Most people like to put some of their home equity to work, but people have been afraid to do it. The scars of the financial crisis are still omnipresent. And now again we keep having these massive corrections with Trump as president. Not, not that we didn’t under Biden. We had a bear market under Biden. It was very painful. But again, we’ve now had four of these pretty severe short term shakeouts under this president.

[00:33:47]:
Doesn’t bother him. Clearly I don’t think most Americans would agree with that. But again, that means there’s a lot of again ocean liquidity. There’s a lot of money on the sidelines just waiting for a chance to get back into the market, waiting for race to fall so they can refi right, remodel their home, take a vacation, relax a little bit, reward yourself. People have been too afraid to do anything. That’s a big reason to be bullish, folks. And that’s why we get to get a J Pal out. He must go and Kevin Wash must be in.

Donald Trump has got to drop his ego, tell his DOJ to drop this lawsuit against the Fed and Jay Powell, get rid of it. Otherwise we’re not going to have Kevin Warsh as new Fed chair in May. And we need that for rates to really plummet, which is still remains our call. All right. Let’s take a look under the hood today very quickly. Internals are kind of what you think. Actually not bad today for you know, a bit of a down day again. Dow, Dow Jones today down.

What was it again? 269. That’s not nothing. Get your attention a little bit. But again NASDAQ higher. NYSE was one and a half to one negative advanced decline. But NASDAQ 50 57.7 upside volume. I’m sorry five no apologies. One and a half to one.

[00:35:16]:
A positive is decline for Green Moon riding for NASDAQ. NASDAQ up volume 60.1%. That’s very good. NYSE down volume 57.3. Not a big deal. And we also had more stocks at 50 kind 50 low today, but only about 30. But hell we’ll take it right again Friday. A lot of people worried about what’s going to happen over the weekend.

That’s been a pretty, pretty solid repeating pattern to pay attention to. Sector watch today. Very quickly, I’ll just give you the bottom line. Four sectors lower, seven higher. Not a lot happening any anywhere. Commodities stay gold down a little bit. It’s been pretty good Run a gold Last trade now 47.75 down 45 down 9/10 of percent today. Silver down a half percent.

7607. Mining stocks though were higher. That’s what I think we’re going to see. Mining stocks are going to start leading again. It’s time. I’ll share that chart on Monday as again another great relative strength chart. I’ll share that with you on Monday. Mining stocks are starting to lead again.

[00:36:17]:
That’s a tell, right? That’s an important tell. It’s like the semis in the stock market. Xle to go to oil. It’s a very reliable tell. And they’re leading higher again. They had a good day today. Copper today, flat 580. Oh, I’m sorry.

Up 2%. 586 a pound. Great story there. Global demand, global economy is in great shape again. Base metals should continue to do very, very well. Crude oil today again. Here we go. Finally getting the kind of downside action we’re looking for.

Down 2.3% today. Last trade 9556 again our year in call is 70. But you know, look, I’m fine with honestly 80 doesn’t matter. I don’t want to see 90 plus. But I know I’m talking to Will right now. Will. Will thinks it’s going to finish. Will, you’re probably right.

[00:37:01]:
Will Reese, great guy. Love you, Will. Thank you for your great emails and great work. You do. Man really knows his when it comes to the energy markets. I’m going to side with Will. I think it may be over 80 as we get. He knows it far better than I do.

And yes, the last trade, oil 9557. And finally again, bitcoin. Here we go. Going into the weekend, highs of the day, 73,356. As I speak again, we’re calling it a one of bitcoin’s infamous moves. Higher is underway. I’ll repeat one more time from the beginning of the war. First missiles hit in Iran.

Bitcoin up 22%. That’s a great FIFO trade right there. I really think that’s happening. All right, folks, that’s it for the day. Hey, thanks for being here. Hope you had a great week and even better weekend. We’ll see you back here again tomorrow. Monday after the close.