In today’s episode, Kip breaks down a pivotal Wednesday for the markets, highlighting the Dow’s best single-day performance in a year and pivotal new all-time highs for both the semiconductor and transport indexes. You’ll hear about the ongoing strength of the U.S. economy, despite recent geopolitical uncertainty, including the “smart money hour” streak and blowout earnings from major companies like Delta Airlines. Kip also explores the end of the recent war, its impact on fiscal stimulus, and why corrections in this “generational bull market” are seen as buying opportunities rather than setbacks. Plus, the latest insights on sector rotations, the innovation revolution powering the U.S. recovery, forecasts for GDP growth, Federal Reserve moves, and updates on commodities, energy, and Bitcoin’s market leadership. Tune into today's podcast to learn more. 

Don’t look back because the market is closed. Good Wednesday afternoon, everyone. Kip Herriage here with the daily VRA investing podcast. Hope you had a good day today. Market certainly had a good day today. Matter of fact, this is the best day for the Dow Jones in exactly one year from today.

That’s kind of interesting, huh? Really good day. Market held its gains all day today. Held most of its gains. The open was rock and roll. Lost a little bit. Midday gained again. A smart money hour. Smart money hour.

[00:00:31]:
Excuse me. I just had a protein drink before I did this and it’s kind of, kind of caught my throat. The smart money hour today was also good. Today. That makes seven Tyler Covets Yesterday makes seven straight days though. We’ve had a strong smart money hour. That’s one of those tales that we talk about. It’s important, right? It’s, it’s part, it’s in the VR investing system.

It’s part of it. Of course, the semis as well. By the way, Tyler and Sam are on a due diligence trip today to North, I believe, North Carolina. North Carolina, that’s right. And looking into a very interesting private company that we may be helping to raise some money for and invest our own money into. So we’ll, we’ll follow up with you on that. Thanks again. Tyler and Sam making that trip.

So I can stay back on this crazy day today and make sure we have all our bases covered. Josh, thank you for staying as well. Man in the fort Danielle as well. Josh just does a great job of posting our podcast. I know a lot of you know Josh and being on the phone with him, talking to him. A lot of you joined us here because you spoke to Josh and he welcomed you on board and we had a great team here. We keep. Allows us to, frankly, it allows me to do this, allows me to focus on this.

[00:01:44]:
Of course we have the VRA portfolio, but parabolic options program as well. And of course we have our blog, our podcast, daily podcast. So it gives Tyler and I a chance to focus on this a lot. Tyler, Tyler wears 10 hats every day. If you don’t know that he. Tyler runs our marketing program as well. And so you know, Josh and Sam, of course, a big part of that and everybody cares away. You’ve got a great team here.

It really has always been a family business. Tyler’s been here now nine years. Hard to believe he still, I still see him as a 16 year old, frankly, he’s not. And, and now Tyler, Sam has joined us, of course, from a very successful career in logistics. But I think you read the writing on the wall there. Yeah, I think he saw it. That’s. It won’t be too long until all transportation is done, you know, without a driver.

And logistics is a very different looking industry when you consider AI and not having drivers. So anyway, we get a great team here. Thank you. I don’t, I don’t, I don’t acknowledge them as much as I should, but appreciate all the hard work you guys do and we appreciate all of you, really, really appreciate you for being with us here and you’re in your great feedback. Hey, good, bad and indifferent. Keep it coming. We love hearing it. We just want to, we want to be the best we can do.

[00:03:07]:
We can be at, at this job. You know, a lot of you’re paying us to do that and that is our job. Our job is to beat the markets, make sure we’re positioned correctly, make sure we’re, we. The, the primary trend is number one. That’s the thing we got to get right. Next is sector analysis, making sure we’re in the right sectors. We’re going to talk about that today. Rotational themes because we’re seeing another one now.

This is going to be a big rotation taking place here, folks. Big rotation. We’ll come back to that in a bit. Talk about the war a little bit today, the cease fire and talk about all time highs today. This is kind of crazy. Tyler from the road said, hey, did you see this? The Sox, the semiconductor index. The Sox just hit an all time high this morning. I had no idea that was even close to being the case.

Isn’t that amazing? You know, we go into a technical correction with the S&P 500 intraday hitting 10% lows last week right before the Monday bottom. Matter of fact, at that Monday midday bottom, I was a 10% correction. Nasdaq down 13%. Now here we are just, just over, right, what a week, a week and two days later called a week and a half later and you got the SOX index at all time highs. Folks. That is such an important tell. As you know, we track the semiconductors really closely because if you get the trend of the semis right, then you know the direction of the market. It’s been exactly that easy and that simple.

[00:04:35]:
And now that I’m making it sound simple, it’ll probably stop working. But that’s been the case since the birth of quantitative easing in 2008, 2009. I discovered this in about 2010, 2011, started tracking it in the system and it’s just held up. It’s just held up incredibly well. And if you get the primary trend right, we like to do it on a relative strength basis with the SP 500. I think that’s the most, I think that’s the best way to do it. Again, you have the, the largest and, and leading equity index on the planet, the SP 500 compared to the most important sector, the semis. And, and that relative strength chart tells you so much.

And that’s really, as I wrote this morning, that is one of the primary reasons that the Vagari system never went to a sell signal. We got to, frankly, we got to seven out of 12 screens bullish. All right, we were 10, right, heading into the war, looking great, everything is going fantastic. Get ready for Q1 earnings in a month or so, right? And then here comes these strikes against Iran. We got to 10, then all of a sudden, you know, last Monday we were at seven. And that’s, that’s, that’s fairly close to, to, to us saying it’s time to sell our leverage ETFs. Now that’s how we approach it here. You know, our 10 baggers, our favorite growth stocks.

You know, we’re in these until something changes. That’s, we’re the Peter lynch kind of Warren Buffett school of investing when it comes to our favorite stocks. You know, we, we want to own these until they’re all up at least a thousand percent. You know, they’re not going to be 10 daggers. But that’s our approach with our favorite growth stocks. But with our ETF program, it’s a trading program. And if we would have gotten to 6 out of 12 screens bullish, we would have been selling our leveraged ETFs. But the semis continued to lead higher and that really saved us.

[00:06:32]:
The other thing that of course saved us was the strength of the U.S. economy because our, our investing system is 70% fundamental and 30% technical. So the fundamentals are always, always more important. The technicals don’t even come close to a close second, but they give us our signals, right? They tell us from a timing point of view when to act. So they’re certainly very important. But again, we covered this a lot with you here. The US Economy is rocking and rolling today. We have more evidence of that.

And it’s kind of funny how the media is, is presenting this. Delta Airlines was the first, really the first major company to, to, to, to give earnings for, for Q1. And today the stock was at 4%. It was blowout number. But if you watched any financial Media and I watched a little bit of Bloomberg today. You, you saw how the media is reporting on this. Numbers are good. But Delta Airlines is warning about rising fuel prices.

Right? They all of a sudden, that’s the primary theme, the guidance, right. Instead of the blowout quarter that Delta had. Again, when you have the trannies today, it was, this really is insane. The SOX index hit an all time high today and again thanks to Tyler, the trannies hit an all time high today too. So when you have that happening, right, these are crystal clear signs that the economy is doing really well. And then you have Delta Airlines reporting today and we see all the data, we got the jobs number, of course, from last Friday. And again we’re seeing this in transportation and trucking and rail, the US Economy led by manufacturing, led by the Trump economic miracle. And folks, yes, it is still very much in place.

[00:08:24]:
This will be the first year that it’s really had a chance to do what it was capable of doing. Right? We got rid of all the Biden nonsense, all the bullshit job reporting, part timers, illegals, right. All the low paying jobs. Those are 2 million illegal aliens gone, right? Several hundred thousand federal employees gone. It is frankly amazing that the jobs numbers weren’t really ridiculously awful last year. But now we have the one big beautiful bill. Now we’re a year into Trump’s presidency. Now we’ve got a chance for the Trump economic miracle to really show what it’s capable of doing.

And that’s why we continue to forecast we’re going to see 5% GDP growth. I really, it would have been this first quarter, but, but the war. First we had the, the shutdown in the fourth quarter and now we had the war. You know, again, it’s thrown, it’s thrown, it’s, it’s throws a curveball when it comes to reporting what the economy is capable of doing. So I think second quarter, one of these months in second quarter, which of course now is underway, we’re going to get a 5% GDP quarter. And I think, I don’t think, I think, I know. That’s what the markets know. That’s what the markets know.

And this quarter Delta just gave us a glimpse of this. Next week we’ll start getting big bank earnings on the 14th. I think it’s Wednesday, right, next Wednesday. And I expect those to be extremely good. Again, everyone’s going to be watching guidance. I’m sure the media will be negative. Oh, inflation, you know, oil prices are still going to be, we may even have the Federal Reserve hike rates The Federal Reserve is not going to raise rates. Right.

[00:10:06]:
That, that is laughable. If you’re listening to an economist, this is. The Federal Reserve is going to raise rates. You should never listen to that economist again. Take this to the bank, folks. The Fed is going to cut this year with new Fed chair Kevin Warsh, who I hopefully will be in the job after his hearing in April. Assuming that the Trump and the DOJ dropped this lawsuit against Jay Powell and the Fed over the renovation and Trump’s testimony about it, that, that, that lawsuit. Look, there may be lots.

We talk about this a lot. I’m sure there’s a lot to it. Two and a half billion dollar renovation for this Federal Reserve building or two buildings. I think it is. I mean obviously there’s something really goofy going on there. Yeah, probably criminal by the way, but that’s not the big picture. The big picture is we need Powell gone and we need wash in and maybe a couple other Fed governors can leave as well so we can again get a Federal Reserve that’s worthy of what this economy can do. Because I think we’re going to see three rate cuts this year because again the power of the innovation revolution is going to continue to bring us disinflation that is happening underneath the surface.

And once this oil mess gets out of the way. Remember we, we’ve been telling you consistently, have we not during this war that we said oil prices are not going to spike to 125, 150, 200. Again those were laughable. That was never going to happen. And we saw it in xle, the energy stock etf. Right. It peaked and started going lower some time ago. We saw it in defense stocks.

[00:11:41]:
Tyler, could this yesterday, defense stocks peak some time ago really got have gotten hammered Again, they’re not telling these, were not telling you that oil prices at this war were going to be a long term drug add affair. And then also we have had a course oil in backward severe, not just backwardation, severe backwardation. Right. We had oil yesterday at what, what was the high one? 116 I think 117 is that range. And then backwardation December contracts, I think we’re like down to 74, 75 today they’re in the 70s. So all the signs, the tells that you look for were there. And while we, while we’re talking about the war, let me come back to that because I led with this this morning in our letter. This war is over.

This is over. Now there might be some goofy headlines, there might be some skirmishes, there might be some more ballistic missiles from Iran. But I’m telling you, for all intents and purposes, this war is over. And that’s because Trump is desperate for this war to be over. The pushback from his post on social media yesterday about wiping out an entire civilization in Iran has been fairly unanimous. I mean, the, the administration officials have backed him. You know, like, you know what he was saying. He’s making sure that he has their attention.

Yeah, I’m sure that’s a part of it. But when you’re the President of the United States, you can’t talk about wiping out an entire civilization. You, you have to be better than that. You have to be. And I think, again, this is not, I don’t mean to be a personal attack against Trump. I’m just being honest with you. This is how everybody receive. Everyone that’s just got a soul and a heart.

[00:13:30]:
Right. I mean, we’re supposed to be saving these people. That’s one of the original reasons we’re doing this. Right. But the pushback has been near unanimous. That was wrong. But I’ll give you a flip side to that, because Trump is a 4D guy. What if one of the reasons he said that was that he wanted, he wanted the, the MAGA and, and the entire public right to rise up and say that’s wrong.

You can’t say that. To turn the momentum against this war because he wants to end it that badly. I actually think that’s something that he would do intentionally and take the heat at the same time. But the war’s over. The war’s over. Polling shows that Trump has lost the independence. He wouldn’t have won in 24 without the independence. Of course, the, the, the, the Trump haters, they were never going to perform anyway.

This MAGA base is really. There have been some, there have been some key people leave that have there not. But his base is 30%, 35% base isn’t going anywhere. And there’s still time to get people back. And I think that’s going to be on the. Not think I know it’s got to be on the backs of Trump turning 100% of attention back to domestic issues. This has been the most consistent and accurate complaint about Trump’s presidency, especially since the war started. What are we doing right? What are, what are you doing right? We elected you not to start wars.

[00:15:06]:
We elected you to revitalize the economy. We elected you to get to 5% GDP growth, 8%, 10%, because that is where we’re going. And so I think that’s going to be the about face Trump’s going to do again. This war is over I’ll say for the fifth time. And now the focus has to be explicitly on domestic issues. He’s going to get a lot of help in that area because the the economic news is going to be incredibly good. Remember there’s a back end fiscal stimulus coming from this war that’s only going to help the economy more as as defense companies and others have to re up right their supply and their inventory. So we’re going to see that in the numbers.

I don’t know how big a bump it’ll be but it’ll be a decently noticeable size bump. Not that it really needed it because the rest is going to come again won’t be beautiful Bill innovation, revolution and just the the foundational strength. As we said, this is a structural market, the most powerful kind based on foundational issues in the economy. Again we’re going to see that next week in the Q1 earnings. Tyler also just told me I think this is from FactSet. We’ve had the the highest number of SP 500 companies raising guidance before earnings that we’ve seen. I think Tyler said it’s been eight years. I think, I think if I remember right been been a number of years again just more of the signs about what’s about to happen.

So now he’s got to focus on the economy and the Save America act that’s got to get passed. Do whatever you got to do, make whatever promise you got to make that that has to be passed. 85% of the public including Democrats support it. You have to have an ID to vote. You got to be US Citizen to vote and you got to do whatever it takes to get that passed. And again that’s where we want Trump to be focused. That’s, that’s where I believe he’s going to be focused. And over time they will be able to spin this war as being a success because it was right.

[00:17:05]:
Let’s be honest. This, this is a huge success. I want to read something to you. I saw this post yesterday on on Twitter. I still can’t call it X and this is from a guy that writes for the Washington or they called the D.C. examiner, I guess it is David Haronzi. He wrote this. Other than losing their entire Navy Air Force, a few generation of political leadership, top military minds, over a thousand senior IRGC and military commanders, their air and defense, their air defense and radar sites, numerous scientists, ballistic missile stockpiles and most launchers, drone and missile factories Iran has the upper hand.

In other words, Iran is one. I think it’s a great post because that’s exact, that’s the truth of it. That’s the reality. And we’ve set them back a long ways now. You know, one of the, one of the reasons that this war to some looks like it may not be over is Israel is apparently furious with the way this happened. They’re getting, they didn’t want this to end. Right? They wanted to, they wanted once and for all to put their enemies out of business. They probably would have.

They probably. I think you would have taken a poll in Israel about Trump’s comment about wiping out an entire civilization. My guess is a lot of Israelis would have said, thank you. That’s, that’s, that’s what we need to do, because they all want to kill us. And so, look, I, I don’t, I don’t think Israel’s risk and danger is going to go away. It’s hard to kill, you know, hundreds of millions of people that don’t like you and they happen to be your neighbors. That is a, that is a domestic issue they’re going to continue to have. But we didn’t elect Trump also to be beholden to Israel or to Netanyahu.

[00:18:59]:
You want to talk about war criminals? Of course, a lot of people are saying Trump’s a war criminal for his post. No, that’s not possible. And he didn’t do anything in this to be called a war criminal, in my opinion. You want to talk about somebody that could be a war criminal, it’s been your netting Netanyahu, is it not? I mean, what they did in Gaza. I know that there are two sides to every story. I know there are people who disagree with me on this. I don’t care. I know what I believe and what I think.

And it’s time to, it’s, it’s really time to start putting that relationship in order. Right. And again, it’s time for Trump to focus on the US and US economy 100% and, and come back home and let’s get the job done. All right, what else today? Let’s see. I think I’ve covered a lot of things here. Let’s talk about what happened today now. Okay? Because this is really important. Again, seven straight days of, of good smart money hours.

Here’s what mattered today. Yeah, we lost some of our opening gains, but then we rallied back against a great smart money hour. What mattered today? The semis up and up 5.7% again. The socks hitting an all time High. That is utterly remarkable. And I think if you’d run a poll of the average person. Hey, do you think that semis hit an all time high today? They say. What are you talking about? We’ve been in severe correction.

[00:20:26]:
I think people would like vote against that fact 90% to 10. But it is true. It happened again. The transports, the trannies, as we lovingly call them. I almost got banned on Twitter for calling the transports trannies. I got a strike against me. I honestly forgot about that till just now. I was talking about the transports.

Remember on Twitter there was a time when you couldn’t say trannies. Good lord. How do we. How do we even save our country? Thank you again to Elon Musk for, for buying. For buying Twitter and turning into X. Wow. But again, trannies and transports assume me trannies and semis hitting all time highs today. That’s a big tell.

The HGX, the housing index today up 4.7%. That, that we need that in a major way. I’m gonna write this up tomorrow. I wrote this often in the fourth quarter of last year that if the housing stocks, because they’ve been moribund, they’ve been almost dead. Right. Look at the chart. I mean, well below the 200 day. I haven’t done anything.

[00:21:34]:
And again, the. This is one of our mega trends is housing. So it’s like the more important to watch what the stocks are doing. Anything else, that’s the leading tell. And they weren’t leading, they were leading lower. That, that, that’s a big negative. Is one of the reasons we almost went to a sell signal and the very system last Monday. We were close.

Probably like a day away. Right. By the way, Rich Ross did go to a cell. Rich Ross, the, the technical savant at Evercore sold on the Friday before the lows. Now we saw that and if you’re with us here at the vra, you know that I often share Rich Ross’s. Like once a week I share Rich Ross’s one pager where he outlines everything. The guy’s done phenomenal work. But I’ll be honest with you.

Please forgive me for this. I didn’t share Rich’s work over the last week because I didn’t want you seeing it. I didn’t want you to be tempted to listen to him over me. That’s why I didn’t share it, because I knew he was wrong. If you remember, if you’re with us here, you’ll remember my letters of the last week. Do not sell. Selling is a mistake. Right? Because again, every, every fiber of my DNA.

[00:22:51]:
And this is the bottom. This is, this is, this is who Kip Herridge is right now in this bull market, I talk about this fair amount, every fiber of my DNA when it comes to my 41 year now experience in doing this, every fiber tells me this is a generational bull market. And that because of that, every correction is a, not a buying opportunity, but a massive buying opportunity. So there was no way I was going to share Ross Rich Ross’s work with you in case some of you were tempted. Rich Ross is the real deal, right? He’s extraordinarily good. There may be a lot of you that think he’s better than me and I don’t fine with that. But we share as we work a lot. And I didn’t over the last week for that reason.

I don’t believe mixed messages help anybody at a market bottom. And that’s why I didn’t share it. He since come out and again, he clearly Rich Ross capitulated. And frankly, that’s what you need to see to have a market bottom. You need to see a lot of people like Rich Ross capitulating. And if I again take it a step further, be completely honest and transparent about this, this is the third time since I follow Rich Ross Tyler as well that he has capitulated at a market low. It doesn’t mean he doesn’t do great work, because he does. But here’s the difference between what Rich Ross does and what we do.

And it’s a big difference. It’s a big difference. Rich Ross and others like him that are Wall street analysts or technicians, the pressure brought to bear on them from the groupthink of Wall street is overwhelming. I know I worked in that environment for 15 years. What I don’t know, I can’t tell you this is what happened Rich Ross, But I can tell you I think this is what happened to Rich Ross is he is being pounded by people daily saying, what are you doing? We’re below the 200 day moving average. What are you doing? The original buy signals are turning into sell signals. Why? Why are you keeping a buy on this? You’re going to get us buried. All of our clients follow you.

[00:25:08]:
You’re going to crush us all that group think of Wall Street. If Rich Ross and I, I’d love to have him on an interview one of these days, maybe we can make that happen. Because the group think of Wall street is what got to Rich Ross. And in an honest conversation, I can assure you that’s what he would say because he didn’t want to turn bearish, right? But since then, by the way, he’s now said, hey, if we, if we reach these certain levels, I, I will, we’ll go back to buy signal and now we’re back to this levels. We’re now again, I didn’t, I didn’t share this earlier. We’re now back above the 200 moving average on everything, right? And it’s funny because during the Trump era, right, 2018, that was the Federal Reserve hiking rate seven straight times crashing the market. Worst fourth quarter since. Even worse than the Great Depression again Jay Powell versus Donald Trump.

Markets got hammered. Average stock down 40, 50%. 2018, 2020. We unfortunately remember that when the plan Demic, the Plan Demic markets got hammered again three, four week, right? That was by the way the most of the damage in 2018. Fast forward to the tariff mania of last March, April three to four, another three to four week period, markets get hammered. Average stock down 40% plus markets again go below the 200 day moving average. And now here we are, episode number four with Trump as president where the markets get hammered and the average stock is down. In this case, the average stock was down about 28%, right? Not as bad as the others, but still brutal for your portfolio, right? When the, when the, when the Correction, when the SB 500 is down 10%, the average stock is down 25, 30, 35%.

That’s, that’s just the way this works. And you know again, volatility is a price of admission for investing. It’s a price of admission for picking individual stocks. It just comes with the territory. But folks, the last thing you can do is capitulate at market lows. That’s what we were telling you where extreme oversell on steroids, right? Fear in greed index is 9 more people are short this market than very close to the tariff mania lows, right? Institutional money all, all the hallmark signs of an approaching market bottom. So hell no, we’re not going to sell there. And now again we’ve got buy signals, right? Again, we repeat last Monday’s midday lows will be the lows unless something God awful happens.

[00:27:53]:
And again, it’s always possibility. But if we continue on track with the war over Q1 earnings coming up, great economy this year. Yeah, the lows are in. The lows are in. As to my generational bull market comment, again, every fiber of my DNA because I remember 1995-2000 like yesterday. This is going to be bigger, broader, longer lasting than that. Because it’s not just AI. It’s massive innovation across the board affecting every industry, and it’s only just getting started.

Where are, where are IPOs? I said this the other day on Monday’s podcast, where, again, 400 and something. I think if I remember Research 457 IPOs, I’m probably wrong on that, but that’s what so locked in my mind, we’ll call it more than 400 IPOs doubled on the first day of trading from 1995 to 2000. Have we seen a single IPO double? Not, not, not, not that. Maybe not that. I remember, like 200 IPOs went up more than 500% on day one. Again, it may be 150, but I know it was well over 100. Okay, I’ll go back and research that because that’s, that’s, that’s pretty interesting data to have because again, we’ve just not seen the IPO boom. We’ve not seen the merger and acquisition boom.

And because what’s happening with AI and this innovation revolution is so much bigger, broader, stronger, longer lasting than just quote, unquote.coms. yeah, this is going to be, I’ll repeat this again. We’ve been saying that this is going to be, you know, the best market of a generational bull market for some time since 2022. And I booked the big bribe. My real belief is that there won’t be another bull market this powerful for 100 years. We won’t live to see this bull market take place again. And of course, for me to write about that, it has to first happen. But that’s my point is that’s how early we are in this bull market.

[00:29:57]:
And that’s why corrections are simply a gift. All right, all right, what else? Today, foreign we’re going to, especially for those with this in parabolic options, we’re going to continue to use dips as buying opportunities. I think same thing with portfolio. Of course, if you’re, you know, maybe you’re more active in trading our ETFs or whatever war is over the rest of this year. Again, great data on this, folks. Midterm election years commonly have a correction. Commonly. But it’s what happened next that matters most.

Because after that correction, in a midterm election year like this year, the average gain in the SPF 100 over the next year is 38%. That’s good data right there. Right. We’re in April, the second best month of the year. March was supposed to be good. We had the war. Right. So that that’s, that’s my out there for missing that, that, that move lower.

So April’s, April’s got some catching up to do because of March. Seasonality, I should say has some catching up to do because of what happened in March. I really think this month is going to be melt upville and that’s because so many people are doubting it. Again, everyone’s watching the TV now. The tell Live vision. Everyone’s watching it. The emails that I’m getting from you, the emails that I’m getting from you are as fearful as anything that we saw during tariff mania and very close to what we saw during the pandemic. Those emails and those phone calls back then went like this, this thing is going to kill hundreds of millions of people.

[00:31:46]:
Kip, don’t you know this? They’re never going to raise the lockdowns. Kip, don’t you know this? Right. Emails I’m getting now, people, again, genuinely fearful. I’m not, I’m not making fun of anyone. I get it. There’s a lot to be that could go wrong. But the emails are like, aren’t you paying attention to what this person is saying? Aren’t you paying attention to what this person is saying? Oil’s going to 200. Don’t you see this? Trump’s going to maybe nuke somebody.

Don’t you see this? We’re going to have stagflation or runaway inflation. Don’t you see this? And again, the media is feeding all of this. And I watched enough media, by the way. It’s times like these that I watch the media. They give you the best tells. And my favorite network to watch is cnn. During times like this, I’ll just tell you the whole story in case you care about it because I don’t watch cnn, right. I, I watch Fox Business.

I pay attention to Fox News a little bit and I watch Bloomberg in the mornings. Right. By the way, I got canceled on Monday from Charles’s show and they’re supposed to reschedule. They have not yet. I’m a little, little upset about that. Got bumped because of the Trump presser that day. All right? So I never watched cnn, but when something like a war breaks out, I watched them for the first two nights. You know why? Because I know that Fox is going to give me the far right version of what the story is.

[00:33:24]:
I don’t want to know that. I want to know right down the middle, just what is the news? Tell me the news. Just, just give it to me. CNN actually does a very Good job of that. When something big happens, they just bring you the news. So that, that tells me, gives me a pretty good analysis and good perspective on what’s happening without the far left, far right bs. Now I watch CNN to say what the public believes because cnn, in times like these, they are the voice, they are, they are the mastermind of the public. Right? That’s the propaganda network that most people turn to.

And I watched it yesterday and today and if you’ve watched it now, it’s funny right now you can watch it now. I can watch it and laugh at it because it’s, it is near a hundred percent Trump hatred. It’s, we lost, it’s, how do we get out of this? Trump is trapped, of course, you know, let’s wipe out an entire civilization of people. Didn’t help. But again, it tells me, like the pandemic did, how far the propaganda is willing to go. And that’s the investment mindset, that’s the, that’s the investor psychology. Right, that I want to be aware of because that’s what’s gonna, that’s what’s gonna make this market go so much higher. I really think we’re gonna have another, I, I think it’s very like, we can have another V shaped recovery here.

I didn’t think that last week and now I do, because so many people think this war is going to happen. It’s going to get worse. It’s not going to. It’s over. Trump was out of this. And, and I think again, the markets are looking past it already. They’re looking through it. We’ve seen that in all the tells.

[00:35:08]:
Right? Okay, cover that. I beat that like a dead horse, didn’t I? All right, let’s take a look under the hood today. Really, really good internals. Exactly what you want to see. NYC advanced decline 5.2 to 1. Nasdaq 3 to 1 NYC up volume 72.7%. Nasdaq up volume 77.3%. These are good.

These are not great numbers, but they’re good. And again, the reason they’re not great, in my opinion, is people think we’re gonna, this, this, this ceasefire is not going to hold. We’re going back down the rabbit hole. Trump’s going to start bombing again. It’s going to get worse. I just don’t see any way that’s going to happen. I don’t see it. And, and, and let’s all hope I’m not wrong.

52 Kaiser lows 316 to 99. Again, I expect These internals will continue to be about this level. I think the, again, I think this could be a V shaped recovery. And we’ll keep tracking of course the semis again, final 6% today. Right. Again these are the things we want to keep watching. They matter the most. Semi is leading tech.

[00:36:16]:
Tech leading the broad market. Textbook bull market action. That is what we got today. Sector watch also incredibly strong. 10 of 11 sectors up today. Energy the only one down again, that’s the tell. Energy stocks down a big 3.6% today. As we’ve been telling you.

It’s not that we don’t like energy stocks, we do, they’re just pointing to oil going lower, which of course it is. We’ll cover that in just a moment. Industrials today up 3.7%. Communication services, tech essentially up 3.4. Tech also up 2.7. Again very strong day today in our commodity watch. Gold today up 60. It had been up 140 at the open this morning.

Again a little bit of weakness here again. Oil, oil got some wheels today, right? Oil closed at 9,650, but it had been 91 at the Open. So again fears of the ceasefire not holding. That’s what happened here. That’s why some of the gains dissipated. Gold finish up 60 bucks. That’s 1.3%. 47, 45.

[00:37:16]:
Our year end target is 6,500. I wrote that this morning. I’m not sure I’d said that on podcast before. That means the gold miners are going to go boop. Parabolic silver today had been up 7%. Still finished up 3%. 74, 20, 23. Copper today up a big.

Now this matters, right? Copper up. Sorry. Copper up 3.4%. Platinum today up 5%. Palladium up 8%. Again we’re seeing this in the precious metals and the base metals looking very good. Copper last trade 575A pound. Crude oil again hit today down, closing down 16% had been down much more than that.

Again a bit of a rally because of fears of again the ceasefire not holding. Last trade 9667. Our forest forecast remains by year end oil will be sub 70, sub 70, it could be 80. Look, I talked to Mark Bruner about this today. We talk you know, just about every day. CEO of Lost Soldier. And Mark believes that the, the, the, the, the range will be in the 80, $85 range. And believe me, I’m perfectly fine with that.

[00:38:22]:
I, I don’t think that’s going to be the case. I think that’s fantastic. Everybody’s making a lot of money. It’s not too high to cause inflation. The markets don’t, wouldn’t care at all about 80, 85 at all. They look through it. But again, I still believe sub 70 by year end for oil today. Natural gas down a big 4.8% today.

Again, warm weather, a lot of supply. You know, again, that’s. America has these moats and they are undefeatable in their. They cannot be defeated. They cannot be defeated and they protect us in so many different areas. Again, there is no country like this place. And never, never sell short America. I think people that are doing this now are really gonna, I think they’re gonna really regret it.

I think they’re gonna really regret it. This is gonna be an amazing year for this country. In 250th anniversary, you think this is not gonna be a great year. This is gonna be a great year. World cup gonna be a great year. Next up. Oh, we just got bitcoin left. That’s it.

[00:39:22]:
Again, one of our first in, first out trades. We’ve talked about this a lot. Bitcoins led the market lower last October when it peaked at 121,000 right along with momentum and software stocks. They started going down. That was a, in hindsight that was a big tell because bitcoin is, is one of the leaders along with the semis. So we had, we had to make a choice, are we going to take the side of the semis or bitcoin? We’re always going to take side of semis. But, but bitcoin is a big tell. And guess what? On the morning the war broke out, Bitcoin bottom at 59, 7 and never looked back.

Now 71, 700, up right at 3% on the day had been, it’s a rolling 24 hour quote. Had been up at a 4%, 5% range. Again, very good day here. And bottom 59, 7. That’s a tell. First in, first out. Bitcoin should continue to lead higher. Bitcoin is now leader.

Bitcoin, the semis are both back to being a market leader and that’s what we were paying attention to. And of course, you know, we got small caps leading up again. Again, love small caps here again, tranny’s now at an all time high. We’ve got some very strong rotational action taking place here that will continue to point to higher prices for this market. That’s our call and we’re sticking with it. All right folks, that’s it for today. Hope you had a great day. And even better night.

[00:40:48]:
We’ll see you back here again tomorrow after the close.