In today’s episode, Kip recaps a dynamic trading day and breaks down the latest developments shaping the markets. After an impressive 18-day streak, the semiconductor index finally took a breather, yet optimism remains high as K ...
Don’t look back because the market is closed. Good Monday after everyone Kip herriage here with the daily VRA investing podcast. Hope your day was a great one. Hope your weekend was as well. We broke a streak today, 18 straight days coming today that the socks the semiconductor index have been higher closed a little bit lower today. The semi is smh. The semi ETF just almost close.
Positive this, this group has been a house on fire. Obviously got some good data for you in just a minute from Goldman Sachs. That gonna make being bearish on the semis very difficult if history is any guide. Michael Burry who just purchased a very large amount of put options in the semi on the semiconductors is going to have. I just, I’ll just say it, he’s going to lose on this trade too. Burry is, is a, he’s a big name because of the movie the Big Short. But anybody that knows the way the markets work and follows his career at all knows that he’s had big miss after big miss after big miss. But there’s so many people follow him and they’re bearish because of him.
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Like maybe a track record matters besides getting one big call, right. And that’s essentially what this guy’s done. So anyway, not rooting against it, but I kind of am because we’re long the semis and of course they lead the market. So we want to keep see that group key leading higher also today. Hey, surprise, surprise. Another all time high today in both the SP 500 and NASDAQ again semis just missed closing positive for the 19th straight day. Again when the semis are leading, they’re going to lead Nasdaq, NASDAQ leads the rest of the market and that is a textbook bull market action as there’s just no other way to, to define it or describe it. It is what it is.
Are we overbought? Yeah, we’re overbought but only on the semis. The other indexes, they’re overbought but not extreme overbought on steroids. Not like the semis are. But if there’s one group, if there’s one group that you want to be extreme overbought and stay extreme or bought, it is the semis. Again for all the reasons we talk with you about here so often, that is the leadership group. There’s not a close second and it’s, it bodes very, very well for the continuation this big of this big bull market. What else? Big week, big week coming up here we’ve got really, we’re talking about Fed meeting which is a non event, thank God. Friday Little golf clap for Jay Powell is going to be gone May 14th.
Jay Powell will no longer be Fed chair now because they want to keep a spy on the Federal Reserve. He may remain as a governor, he has that, that right to do so. His term doesn’t end until 2028, if you can imagine that. But they’re decade long terms as a governor so he may stay on as a governor. Any, any normal person that wasn’t there to be a spy or to be, you know, to be a turd in the punch bowl. Anybody else would just say, hey, you know what, it’s my time is gone. You know, I fought the President which way I could for the deep state, meaning the baking cartel, most powerful cartel there is. But now, you know, I’m out, it’s my time to go.
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Kevin Warsh is going to get the job. Bottom line is it’s not going to matter yet. It would be great to have Powell gone to have another Trump nominee on the, on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, but at the end of the day it’s not going to matter. We have a new sheriff in town, interest rates are going lower. It’s not going to happen immediately. It’s going to take worse probably, I would think at least one Fed meeting, meaning about a two month period to really put his stamp on the Federal Reserve to wake these other governors up and presidents to wake them up in their meetings to what they should be looking at instead of what they have been looking at. I think when Kevin Warsh pulls out the facts and says, listen, I’m going to, I’m going to explain to you in about two minutes why the President refer to Jay Powell as too late Jay Powell. Here’s the, here’s the data that backs that up.
And just show them case after case after case. Six major, you can call it a mistake, you can call it a planned mistake, whatever you want to, but six major errors that the Federal Reserve made during Powell’s time as Fed Governor. Of course we know the biggie. No inflation a little bit inflation. Oh, it’s going to be transitory to 40 year highs in inflation. Yeah, that, that J. Powell, how can we forget that 2020-2024 run? Again, just nothing but a, a house of horrors with Jay Powell. So good riddance to Jay Powell.
Looking forward to having Kevin Warsh in the gig. What else today? Yeah. So again, besides the Fed meeting, we’ve got earnings, a big week. This is really the big, the biggest of big of all weeks for Q1 earnings for tech, for Mega Tech. So we got Wednesday after the close. These are all after the close. Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and Alphabet followed by Apple on Thursday. And we’re also looking to a couple of big energy companies that report on Friday.
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But from the world of tech, it’s, it’s Wednesday and Thursday that we’re most interested in. Our forecast remains our. For this has been our forecast from the March 30th Iran war lows. If you’ve been with us here, you know this has been our forecast. We call the lows. We’re in that Monday half day. That’s, that’s when the lows were in. It’s been a, not essentially a non stop move higher since then and it’s happened for three reasons.
Number one, front running of Q1 earnings. Number two, extreme, extreme, extreme fear in the market. So investor sentiment and seasonality. Remember, we’re still in the month of April. Seasonality actually can be very bullish in a midterm election year for quite some time. But certainly for this month and at least well into May, seasonality remains very, very bullish. But really at this point, especially after intel announced the other day and jumped what, 23%, it’s all eyes now are on, on big tech and I think front running over the next couple of days. This is our call this morning.
Front running of those numbers on Wednesday and Thursday are going to give this market another big punch. Higher. Yeah, this move higher is not over days like today by the way, where just slightly lower. This, this, this was, we were down all day. At one point Dow Jones was down 190. Right. It finished down 62. Nasdaq was down 130, finished up 50.
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SPF 100 was down 27, finished up 8. And small caps were essentially positive all day, finishing up today 2/10 of a percent. You know, today would have been the day. At one point this morning the semis are down close to 2%. Right? They’ve been leading, leading every day again, 18 straight days of gains when they were down almost 2%. Today this would have been a day for the Bears to jump in if they had any power. And they don’t. It’s the problem.
They don’t have any power. They, it’s all been used up. All the power now belongs in the hands of bulls. We’ve got so much money on the sidelines again if you’ve been with us for a few years, this has been a common theme of ours, has it not for the last four years as we call it, an ocean of liquidity still got $8 trillion in money market funds. $22 trillion sitting in M2 money supply global into money supplies, like 125 trillion. Again these are all, all time highs. Excuse me. So yeah, people understand now that this is the Trump economic miracle is fully engaged.
And that’s what this is about is about corporate earnings which are now, you know, JP Morgan last week said they’re expecting now 22 to 24% corporate earnings growth for this year. That’s higher than our numbers, right? We’ve been at 15 to 18% from the beginning of the year. We’re now 18 to 20. Those are going to be a little bit, at this point it really doesn’t matter, right. Once you get into the 20s, you know, and I think we’re going to, the point is get ready for this to be a run, right? As we said at the beginning of this year, this is going to be the first year that the innovation revolution really introduces itself to Wall street. And with, with just runaway earnings. We already know that corporate America has never had more cash. They have almost no debt.
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Again, the first America really is no different. Debt doesn’t matter to the first America. The first amount, First America is all that matters to the markets. It’s a very harsh, cold thing to say. I come from second America. I actually come from the third America. So I think I, if anybody can say it, I can. But Wall street does not care about the second America.
It doesn’t matter. So when everybody gives you all this, this fear point, right, about how so many Americans are struggling, first of all, I doubt much of that data but when they throw it at you, it sounds so convincing, right? But again the, the, the, the market does not care, could not care less about second America. It no longer matters because the first America has all the power, all the investors, all the money, all the momentum. And again, this is, this is going to be a generational bull market. How many times you heard us say this? That goes well into the2030s. So I think we should get used to years like this. You have 30% plus gains. I think in the next five years we’ll have at least three of those.
You know, this is going to cause a market like we’re seeing now, like we’ve seen the post 3-30- lows to just continue exploding higher. So now the key for us becomes sector watch, sector management, individual stock selection. And I’ll just repeat one of the best lessons I learned during the dot com melt up is hold your winners. They don’t all move up at the same time, the biggest mistake that I saw people make and I’m already getting a sense of it now, people are jumping ship. They see a hot sector, a hot stock and they’re selling their other positions and running into it. They don’t even know that company. They just saw somebody recommend it. They see it’s up 30% in the last month or whatever and they get, they got to get on board.
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Look, if you’ve got great instincts and if you’re lucky more than anything, you might be able to, if you don’t really know what you’re doing, then go for it. You know, if you know all these companies, how they interact with each sector and market movement and these cycles that take place, then go for it. What I learned from the dot com bull market was.com melt up, was to find great companies and hold those companies. You know, where you can experience something that actually does go up 10 to 20 times over a period of five to seven years. There are going to be a lot of stocks like that here. You know, some of our favorites. One of those is Nvidia. It’s one of our core holdings.
A VRA10 bagger just hit another all time high today. And but again, you look at the chart of it and it’s like it did nothing. It’s like it did nothing for four months. It just consolidated. That consolidation was fuel that was building up. Right. Power base that was building up and now it’s broken out, I think you know, from here Nvidia is 240, 250 and then on its way to 400 in the next 12, 18 months, I think probably 12 months, yeah. Which means in the not too distant future we’re going to have our first $10 trillion company and that will likely be Nvidia.
Tesla may be maybe fairly close behind it because when Tesla gets going, and I wrote this up this morning, it’s been a frustrating stock to own. Last thing you want to do. Again, it is frustrating even for us. It’s our second largest position and is to watch a stock essentially flatline, you know, when you’ve got so many other companies that are doing well. But as I again try to remind people, man, that’s just an opportunity. Keep buying cheap stock if you have to sell something else. You know, if maybe you’ve got too much money in cash, too much in gold, too much in silver, too much in another stock that’s not performing. You know, this is when you load the boat, literally load the boat on a stock like Tesla and that’s that’s just what our approach is here.
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That’s been our approach with gold for a very long time. Served us extraordinarily well. We’ve always used gold to save in gold. We don’t, we don’t use Fiat to save around here. Try to discourage people from doing that for a couple decades, I think even longer than that. And so gold is really, is it. Gold’s become a tin backer for us. Silver too.
And so, yes, it’s, it’s, it’s again, Fiat gets inflated away. So if you’re listening to me and you have a lot of money in a bank account, look in the mirror and ask yourself a question. What the hell am I doing? What am I doing? You’re being inflated away every single year. You’re actually losing money every year. Even if you’re making 3, 4% in the money market, you’re still losing money. Gold is the original currency going back more than 5,000 years for a reason. That’s where you want to save again. It’s your money.
This is not individual investment advice. I’m just telling you what’s worked for us and what we believe, down to our DNA. What else today? Yeah. So front running this week. It’s not like the rally is going to end this week. At some point, you know, we may have a decent shakeout. I just don’t think it’s anytime soon again. There’s just too much momentum, too much liquidity, too many smart money people have woken up.
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You know, retail got shaken out from the Iran war. And I covered the reason at the time. A lot of people turn, a lot of Trump supporters finally turned on Trump on the Iran war. And I watched it happen. I talked to these people, right? They’ve been with them, been with them, been with them. And then, you know, chinks in his armor, right? The Epstein list, all the things he hadn’t done. And now we enter into another war, something he said, Trump said he’d never do. I watched as retail investor after retail investor capitulated and said, I’m over this guy.
He’s not the guy I thought I voted for. And they sold and they sold at the lows of the Iran war. You probably know some people that did just this. If you’ll remember, our call was to whatever you do, don’t sell. You know, maybe if you don’t want to buy more, don’t buy more, don’t add your positions. But whatever you do, don’t sell. Because when, when, when the markets realized that this war was not Going to get worse. That would be the lows.
And by the way, on this war, I’m still seeing so many in the media that have this exactly wrong. I saw another person today on Bloomberg. This makes one on Friday, one today. This says Iran has all the leverage when it comes to the straight of Hormuz. Like, seriously, what, what are you smoking? You, you can’t, you can’t believe that. Or if you are, how did you ever get on television? You know, how did you ever come a respected voice enough to get on a major TV show? So that’s not the case. The US has all the leverage here. Matter of fact, within about a week or maybe two on the outside, all these Iranian oil wells that have been shut in are going to start to have serious structural flaws, meaning that they may not be able to be worked over and put back into production.
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So yeah, if you ran, you might want to act pretty quick. You’re losing 500 million a day and the US is just sitting there. Of course the next thing the US is going to do is we’re going to open this straight up. You know that, that’s, that’s what’s happening behind the scenes here. We’re going to open this straight up. We’re going to protect every ship that goes through it. But Iran will not be allowed for their ships to go through it, import or export. We’re going to starve Iran out until they give Trump everything he wants.
That is the future, folks. That’s what’s going to happen. And that’s why even today, for example, oil’s up a couple of bucks a barrel and the markets just really barely cared. Right. And again, I think that’s going to continue to be the dominant theme. If we do get into a shooting war again, I would expect it to be very short lived. I would expect the market to have a shakeout, but only brief. I’m just talking about maybe a few days or a week, but that’d be a great opportunity to add to the positions right now.
It is tough, you know, unless you’re talking about home builders, we love the industry. Sensor groups, gold miners, Fantastic on this pullback. Again, some things that have pulled back that are, that are phenomenal buys here. There’s, there’s not a real rush to buy anything because yes, we are that overbought. It’s just not a great time to put a whole lot of new money to work. But it’s also not a time to be taking profits in anything that you want to own for the long run. I mentioned interest rate sensitive groups and I’m going to keep this a little short here, but again this is, this is a group we’re very keen on, very bullish. And what’s interesting is the, the, the sectors and the holdings that make up the interest rate sensor because it’s so bullish for so many different companies.
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Right. You got, you got, you’ve got semis, you’ve got technology. Extraordinarily matter of fact, they’re probably more interest sensitive than any group out there, which is why they’ve been going parabolic. The markets know what’s about to happen. Yeah. Rates are still going up. They’re still inching up right now, 4.3% or whatever. Up a little bit more today.
But it’s only because oil is going higher. That’s the only reason. Again, once J. Powell once, once too late, pals gone. We’re going to see a very, very different Federal Reserve and rates that begin to move lower then begin to plummet lower again. Our year end target for the 10 years, 3.5% again, 4.3 today. And our year end target for the 30 year mortgage is below 5% and we’re still what, 6 point, what is it? 6.2% today. So big moves lower.
Going to be phenomenal for the home builders. It is a group we’re pounding the table on right now through our leveraged ETF that we own. Okay, I’m going to give you some data here. This is, I shared this this morning. It’s from Goldman Sachs. It’s good data because again, Michael Burry is calling a top in the semis. You know, just because the group’s hitting all time highs, it up 18 straight days record all time high. After all time high.
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Does he think this is bearish yet? Yes, is extended. It’s one of the most extended runs ever. But we have had some examples of this kind of a run in the past with the semis. I’m going to give you the bottom line. Yes. Over the next week or so when you’re this overbought for the semis, they can be. It’s mixed. It’s not just flat out bearish, it is mixed though.
Right, Right. You had some negative weeks, you had some positive weeks. The average for the next one week at this kind of overbought level is down 1.3%. That’s the average. Well, that’s nothing. Not if there’s 48% move higher we just said. Right. But what matters most if you’re a long term investor like we are are the 6 month and 12 month returns.
When the semis have been this overbought in the past it’s been about five and instances this has happened. Okay, over the next six months they’ve been up an additional 19%. Over the next 12 months they’ve been up over 32% and in both cases six and 12 months they’ve been higher 100% of the time. So good luck to Michael Burry, my man. You are going to need it. We are staying long this group especially Nvidia which of course is now breaking out as I covered a moment ago. All right, let’s look under the hood today. Internals were not good today.
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This actually makes three straight days of of internals that were weak ish. Not bad weak ish. I know some people are looking at this going well. We’re hitting all time highs. There’s only 30 stocks at an all time high today. You know, good luck with that. This is called the market taking a breather. A little internal rotation taking place.
While we still continue to hit all time highs. Little could be more bullish than what’s happening right now. So most stocks can take a breather while the markets still elevate at these record levels. And then after a few days of, of of again just rest for a lot of stocks the charts start looking a lot better. And now here comes new fuel for the fire which is new buyers realizing these dips aren’t going to last long. Internals today again slightly negative events. Decline slightly negative. NYC slightly positive for NASDAQ.
NYC up volume. 56 up volume. NASDAQ 52 down volume. We also had a big well, more than 200 stocks hitting a 52 week height and hit a 52 week low again. Nothing, nothing bad at all about these numbers. Sector watch not quite as good. 8 sectors lower. 3 sectors higher.
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LED to the downside again. Nothing happened in here. Consumer staples down 1%. They’ve been a house on fire as well. To the upside. Communication services up 9/10 of percent again. 8 lower. 3 higher again.
Market taking a breather. Commodity watch pretty quiet today. Gold down 910 of a percent. 4,697 as I wrote this morning, higher. Oil is bearish for gold. It’s bullish for the dollar. And higher rates also coming again from oil. And, and, and the war.
Right. And excuse me and, and the price of price of oil. This is a massive buying opportunity. Take a look at the chart, you’ll see how it’s coiling. We also have our biggest really it’s Our biggest tell for this group, it’s the miners, gold miners to the price of gold. I shared that chart this morning, our letter and when the miners lead and gold higher it is a extraordinarily high probability call that the group is going to continue to fire again. The miners lead gold higher. Last trade now 4,697 for gold.
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Silver today down 1.2%. 75 47. Copper today flat on the day $6.08 a pound. Crude oil today again up $2.27 a barrel, 2.4%. Last trade 9,667. And finally the day bitcoin kind of again taking a bit of a breather. It’s it’s led again from the depths of the war. Bitcoin has been first in, first out leader.
Last trade now 77,000 down 1.7% over the last 24 hours. All right folks, that’s it for the day. Hope you had a great day and even better night. We’ll see you back here again tomorrow after the close. It.
In today’s episode, Kip recaps Monday’s market action and dives into the ongoing “panic buying” phenomenon that’s driving this generational bull market. He discusses the wall of worry investors are still climbing, the remarkable undercurrent of fear keeping billions sidelined, and why there’s still plenty of room for markets—especially the Nasdaq and Tesla—to run. Kip explains how indicators in tech, AI, cryptocurrencies, and commodities like gold and silver signal a broader, long-lasting innovation revolution. Plus, get his thoughts on the global backdrop, the impact of fiscal stimulus, and the budding AI IPO craze. Whether you’re bullish, cautious, or still on the sidelines, this episode is packed with key insights to help you stay ahead in today’s rapidly evolving market. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.
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In today's episode, Tyler breaks down a powerful move to all-time highs as semiconductors go parabolic to lead the charge. He walks through the latest earnings and what the major indexes are signaling about the strength of this bull market. PLUS, don't miss what history says about what comes next after similar “melt-up” moves. Tune in to hear how he’s thinking about positioning, risk, and opportunity as this semiconductor boom accelerates.
