Kip Herriage [00:00:00]:
Don’t look back for the market is closed. Good Monday after everyone. Kip Herriage here with the daily VRA investing podcast. Hope you had a good day today. Hope your week was a great one as well. A busy week for all of us, I know with Christmas coming up. I don’t know about you, but look, every year seems to go by a lot faster than I ever remembered it.
But this, this year has been absolutely insane. The fact that Christmas is happening, what is it, Thursday? I, I, it’s, I can’t even believe that’s the case. But, but we don’t really have a choice. It’s coming and I’ll tell you what, what I, what I recommend is, the advice I try to give myself is enjoy it, man. Enjoy the time with family and friends. It’s, it’s fairly stressful time frame, you know, family, especially some families sometimes. But you know, we’re all blessed, aren’t we, to have these great relationships in our life and to enjoy this special time of the year together. So I hope you get to do that as well.
Interesting day today. You saw what happened overnight. Gold and silver. As soon as the Sunday night markets opened, boom. They were off to the races. Last night, before I went to bed, gold, silver and the miners all hit all time highs. That rally extended well into today’s trading right now. Goals up 93 bucks announced at 44.80.
That’s February contracts, by the way. Silver 69 almost hit, almost hit 70 today. 69.51 is a high. Both, both the gold and silver up 2.2%. And the miners, which of course lead higher. You know, we do, if you’re with us, you know, we, we talk about relative strength charts a lot. My guess is a lot of people get tired of seeing it, but we focused on it because I see really nobody else that does. And this is important, this is how you see how assets correlate with each other.
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Because history has proven this, that the semis lead the market higher. So if you could see a relative strength chart of the semis to the SP 500 with any index you choose, by the way, but we use the SPF100 because it’s the largest, most important equity index in the world. You look at the semis SMH, the semi ETF to S500. And if you see the semis leading, that’s, that’s a, that’s not, that’s a tell that, that’s like the market begging you, please be long because we’re going higher. Okay. Same thing with the miners and gold. When the gold miners are leading gold higher, that is a, that’s. There is no bigger buy signal.
That is the buy signals been the bicycle my career and you could do with other, you know, relative charts as well. But as we’ve been focused on all year and if you’re with us, you know, this is true again, you probably get tired of seeing it. The miners have led gold higher from day one of 2025. That’s why in the first week of January of this year we made the forecast. This was going to be the year that the miners exploded higher. The first year of many, by the way, the gold miners were our number one sector for this year back in early January. And as of today, GDX day was up another three and a half percent. Today it puts it up 158, 159% in 2025.
There is no sector that’s done better. Same thing with the semis. They’ve been leading, except for the tariff insanity. They’ve been leading. Matter of fact, they bottom. They were the first to bottom, some of the first to bottom with, with Trump’s tariff craziness. Right. And so again, that’s another buy signal.
And I think what’s important about these relative strength charts, they also give you a good sell signal. Again, when the semis start leading lower, we get very nervous about that. You’ve heard us talk about it. We don’t like seeing that, especially if both the semis and bitcoin, which is another market leader. Liquidity is what we’re talking about here. It’s a tell, right? It’s a risk on, risk off indicator. And that’s part of the problem today. You know, we had at one point today, NASDAQ over, It’s up over 220.
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Dow Jones up what? 350, 380 or something. We finished well off those lows. Still, good day today. But once Again, today, about 11:00am, they started hitting bitcoin. This has been a repeating pattern. I know a lot of you know what I’m talking about and it’s a little troublesome, but I just don’t think it’s going to matter here. I do think bitcoin is bottom. We’ve got a, we’ve got a pattern of higher lows that needs to hold up.
But again, bitcoin’s well below the 200 day. My point being it’s not as important as the semis. The semis are still the most important market tell and they are leading higher again. Today the semis led higher again today with the SMH finishing up 1.3% again leading every index higher today against what you want to see. But again, back to the gold. Gold. I mean this, this, this group, the charts, the charts. By the way, again I shared these charts this morning, our letter.
I was running charts over the weekend, running our scans and screens and I’m like, every single chart looks almost the same. And, and for some reason I didn’t remember this from last week, but we’ve had this little reset in the market, like a mini reset and it’s removed all, all of the overbear, overbought characteristics this market had had from last week. We had hit extreme overbought. As you know, we, we’ve been warning you about this, right? Well last week we said the lows were in place last Wednesday and then we had Tucker Carlson’s insane lie about, you know, Trump’s going to announce we’re going to war with Venezuela, when of course he was never going to do that. That’s horrible sourcing again. Tucker Carlson has had a very cold hand but a lot of his followers don’t seem to care. So who am I, who am I to give him advice, right? But that, that Wednesday marked the lows and now it’s Santa Claus come to town time. And that’s where we are.
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We expect a significant rally, almost like a melt up rally, move higher into year end that we think is going to extend into January as well because again we expect next year to be fantastic. Remember the Santa Claus rally kicks off Wednesday. So last five days of the year and the first two days of the new year. And it’s one of the three indicators to start a new year, right? If you get the Tyler top of this last week, if you get the Santa Claus rally, that’s positive. And if you get the month of January, that’s positive. And what’s the third one? There’s three of them. Can’t believe I’m forgetting this. Anyway, we have time to cover that.
Tyler’s doing the podcast tomorrow. He can fill in the gaps that are missing on here. But again we as we don’t record now for two months saying that we expect 20, 26 to be a barn burner of the year with gains of 30% SPF 150% for NASDAQ. And by the way, this, this was, you know, if you, if you know our work, you know that we’ve been following Rich Ross’s work. We’ve got about four or five people that we follow Religiously, we keep it to a small group, you know, people that people we think see things the right way. And that doesn’t mean our way. It’s just that we like the way they think because the way we think tends to beat the markets. And so why would we want to change that? Obviously we don’t want to, we want to keep beating Mr.
Market because he’s a son of a. And he wants to bury us all. He wants to get all the majority on one side and just crush you. Right. So Rich Ross though is the technician, chief tech chief, market strategist, if you will, at Evercore. And his work is really good. And he came out with this piece Friday afternoon. Now, I don’t know if Rich Rezai work or not.
I know we have some of the same friends, but. And so maybe he does. I don’t know. And I’m not, I’m not accusing him of plagiarizing, but I will say, or stealing my work. But I will say that on Friday he came out with a target from here for the SPF 100 to jump 30%. Again that’s our target for 2026. But again the key for me is and for Tyler, when, when, when I work dovetails with Rich Ross’s work, our confidence level goes through the roof. We followed him for many years.
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He’s, he’s again is an extraordinary analyst and he again, he sees what we see. Lower rates, lower inflation. Again we’re on record. We look, we believe disinflation is going to be the dominant theme next year and going forward and dollars lower. I actually think the dollar is going to have a rally here short term. It’s just, it’s hit extreme oversold levels. It’s due for rally. But that will be a counter trend rally.
Kip Herriage [00:08:45]:
The primary trend will remain lower. That’s what Trump wants. And Trump has been getting what he wants when it comes to the economy. And of course that again midterms next year. I think we all know what Trump wants to do. We know what Bessant wants to see. They want to see a stock market that soars. They want to see GDP growth go to 5%.
Larry Kudlow, by the way, over the weekend Larry Kudlow was on a news program. I think it was Fox or Fox Business. I caught the video clip, can’t remember what was on. But Kudlow said that he thinks we’re going to see 5% GDP growth next year. And you know, we’re on record as saying it’s going to happen likely in the first quarter. Of next year for a full quarter. We’ll probably talk about the second quarter. But I think that, I think that February or March will be the first month that we have 5% GDP growth and that’s why the markets are going up.
I mean, it’s no secret the market. Look, the average analyst for 2026 expects earnings growth of 14, 14.7%. That’s for next year. For 2027, their estimate is 14.6%. Now these are far higher than what we’ve seen in the past. But folks, we even think that’s low again, if we’re going to have 5% GDP growth, that’s a high confidence call from us. These earnings are going to grow 15%, 20%. That’s on the low side.
So again, we’re, we’re entering a very well, we’re entering the, the most exciting part of the roaring 2020s. That, that’s what we’re entering right now. The only thing that makes us a little anxious about our call. The only thing, there is no other thing is one thing, we’re not in the minority anymore. A lot of people that are getting very bowled up, you know, but that’s fine because at some point, and again, think back to the dot com melt up. At some point, the market just go up so much that everybody is like, okay, we’re going higher. And so we had that stretch where even though so many people are on the bandwagon, it just doesn’t matter. Right? A contrarian.
That, that, that’s a dangerous time to be a contrarian. There’ll be a good time to be a contrarian. We’ll have those shakeouts. Look, the markets always do. It’s never, trees don’t grow, grow the sky overnight. But I really think that next year is just not going to matter. There’s so many positive tailwinds. They’re going to push the economy higher.
The, the market’s higher, you know, Our Big three for our new listeners. Welcome to you. Our big three remain the same as they have now for some time. It’s number one, the Trump economic miracle. Remember, the one big beautiful bill kicks in starting on Jan. One second. The innovation revolution. I, I, I, look, look what’s happening with technology and it’s just beginning.
What, what is, what is AI going to create for us? It’s going to be wild and it’s coming and it’s going to create so many jobs. It’s going to create massive, the innovation is going to create massive disinflation. And again, this is the Beginning of that trend, folks, I think you can’t be, I almost think you can’t be bullish enough here. And again, if I’ve done this 40, over 40 years, so I’m not a Pollyanna, I just want to make sure you know how bullish we are. We’ve been right to be bullish. And I, this is the most, I’ve been saying it now for two years, three years. It’s the most bullish I’ve been in my career. Well, now I’m even more bullish than I was back then, last, last couple of years.
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So I think the key here is to be long and strong. Yeah, we’ll have shakeouts and we’ll tell you when they’re coming. You know, again, when stochastics hits 90%, that’s our, you know, our number one momentum oscillator for short term timing. When that is 90%, we’ll tell you. And we’ll use discipline. Right. We’ll start taking some profits. You know, their leveraged ETF program, we added, we added one today, by the way, but these.
Let me finish the thought. So, and then the third with innovation, the third of our big three is this absolute ocean liquidity. 22 trillion into money supply. Almost 8 trillion money markets. Again, people still don’t believe this. They’re parking money in cash, stupidly so. Because cash is trash. 35 trillion home equity that only going to continue to grow because home prices are only continue to grow and people pay off the homes.
Millennials are inheriting $85 trillion that’s already started. Right. And millennials just happen to love equities, they happen to love housing, they happen to love gold, silver and bitcoin. What they don’t like is cash. They get it right. So this money’s all going to be piled into the markets. It’s creating a melt up environment. And that’s where this is coming from.
The biggest thing, and I had this conversation with people, we had a party Friday night and I had this conversation with multiple people. They’re like, okay, what, what, what do we think is going to happen next year? And I said, look, I have a pretty good idea that the market’s going to go higher, I think a lot. But the one thing you got to do is you got to get out of cash, you know, because I know, I know from enough conversations. Everybody’s sitting on cash. People are still scared to death about what’s going to happen. Again, we’ve had a psyop of negativity as I’ve Called it for years. That’s in place. And it’s not that I understand it, I do.
It’s just a mistake. You know, you got it. You gotta get with the program and realize that we’re going through a time now where inflationary assets are just going to continue to rise as the dollar continues to fall. It’s not a US phenomenon, it’s a global phenomenon. If you’re an investor and you are fortunate enough to have some money to invest and you’re in these assets and have good diversification of these and you don’t buy at tops, you know, again, use some discipline as to when you put cash to work and you buy the right stocks, it’s going to be very special time over the next five years into 20, 30. We actually think beyond that. But again, cash is trash. And you know, if it makes you nervous, put money in the markets.
Kip Herriage [00:14:43]:
I get it. Start, start wading in. You know, there’s no rule that says I got to put it all to work at the same time. Start waiting in. We big believers here in monthly dollar cost averaging in our favorite investments that we call our 10 baggers here. That’s approach that works for just about everybody. You know, for example, if you got $100,000 to invest, take 10% of that, put in your favorite 10 stocks or whatever, you know, we recommend no more than 15 at a time, but, but again, start doing it. I think you’ll find the slowness of the pace and the diversification help you sleep well at night, especially if you’ve got, you know, cross asset cross sector diversification like we use here, so that when some go down, the others go up, you know, and it works very well.
What else today? Oh, I saw this news that I couldn’t wait to talk about Trump today. Trump canceled this massive onshore offshore wind project offshore Virginia. Okay. It’s largest in the country. It was due to open next year and Trump just outright canceled it and he also suspended three or four more. Of course, you know, the, the, the left. I mean, I thought they were environmentalists. What, what is, what’s going on here? Do they, did they have, did they have no rules they live by? I don’t understand this because wind farms, wind turbines are, might be a lot of things, but what they’re not is environmentally friendly and safe.
They’re horrible for the environment. Right. I know a lot of you by now have seen this show on Paramount called Landman, right, with Billy Bob Thornton. And there’s a great segment, I think it was in the first Episode where he’s explaining to this female lawyer that knows nothing about the oil and gas business or about, you know, wind turbines, what they really are and what a joke they are when it comes to being environmentally friendly. Right, but so, you know, Trump has been against these for a long time. You know, it’s something, I think that, I’ll tell you the truth, I don’t know a single person disagrees with Trump on this. I don’t. I guess if you’re in the industry, you disagree because again, it’s your, you know, that’s your income stream.
But when it comes to marine life, we know they’re horrible for wells, for fish. They trace, change migration patterns, birds. I mean, you know, you, you kill a bald eagle in this country, you’re doing time. If they can prove you purposefully killed a bald eagle, you are doing time, killed more than one, you’re probably locked up for a decade plus. I don’t know, maybe, maybe in some states they kill you if you killed more than two. I don’t know. But wouldn’t surprise me in some blue states. But for some reason, these wackos have no problem whatsoever if these wind turbines are killing bald eagles.
Millions of birds around the country, offshore as well, of course. So again, it’s a lot of hypocrisy. It doesn’t make any sense. So kind of kudos. Way to go, President Trump. Tyler told me a story, I had not heard this, that Elon Musk tells the story that before they could, you know, move forward with SpaceX because they had these sonic booms right when it, when his rockets take off and break the sound barrier, that they had to put seals through special tests and to see if the, if the sonic boom impacted them. I mean, as crazy as that sounds, apparently it’s a great video with Elon explaining this, but again, that’s fantastic. Let’s close all of these down and just get rid of them forever.
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They’re blight on the landscape anyway and they make this horrible noise. You live anywhere near it, it literally drives people crazy. They have to move and of course, by that time their home to worth, you know, next to nothing. Who wants to live there? No one wants to live to next to a wind turbine. So way to go, President Trump is something else. I think that the vast majority of the country can really get behind and adios to Virginia’s big wind farm and to the three others that he suspended hopefully permanently today. Well, today. Oh, talking about Elon Musk, let’s go ahead and talk about Tesla Hitting an all time high today.
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You probably saw the intraday High today was 498, right? So very close to our target was 500. Had been since 220, 230 back in March, April, you know, when the stock got hit hard. But we stood by it. Tyler and I both did, even on national tv. Charles Tyler on the Charles Schwab network, me on Fox Business and on Wayne shows. And look, 500. I think it’s going to happen tomorrow. I really thought it was gonna happen today.
498 was this morning. Like I think in the first 30 minutes is where it was. I thought for sure we’re gonna blast through. But you have to understand something. There are a lot of people that don’t believe in the Tesla story that are short this stock and do not want to see it blow through 500. Because the thing is, 500 is an important number and not just because it’s a cool round number. It’s an important number because there are so many options contracts tied to it. There is a gamma squeeze that is likely about to take place in here.
So many people are bought Ford long term contracts that are far out of the money, right? But it starts at the 500 level. And these people were buying these, you know, back when the stock was 350, 370. And all they’ve done is increase the number of calls they purchased. It doesn’t stop at 500. Look at them. The call buying is happening like crazy. This is how this gamma squeeze works. Because when you initiate a purchase and you buy a call, right? A call is an option to buy 100 shares of a stock.
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When you buy one, the market maker is forced to go into the market and buy the common stock. This is how gamma squeezes work. And it worked for GameStop. You know, it worked all of the, you know, the meme stocks, this is how they had their big moves higher. It’s how Tesla, Tesla’s the first gamma squeeze that I ever saw. And it’s how Tesla had its first big, you know, 100 time move higher, right? It started with a gamma squeeze. So they really don’t want the stock. The shorts I’m talking about and the enemies of Trump of Musk, they really don’t want this stock going through 500.
They’re desperately trying to keep it below it. Because I do think when the stock breaks, breaks 500, I think the move to 600 is going to be, it’s going to come fast, fast and quick. And I think there are also a Couple of other reasons the stock is going up besides just the potential gamma squeeze taking place here. Again, we talked about this some last week. I just over the weekend, even more rumors, right, of that Musk is going to give Tesla shareholders pre IPO shares in SpaceX, which of course is going public next year. So you know, what institution, what individual investor wouldn’t want that? But you have to own the stock first, right? There’ll probably be a date that you have to own it by to get the SpaceX shares. Right. So people are buying to make sure that’s the case.
I do think that’s going to happen. By the way, wouldn’t it be great if Elon announced that on Christmas Eve? I think if that’s the way he tends to work anyway. He likes to surprise people favorably, positively. I think that Christmas Eve would be a great time to announce that. And then why is that it, Elon, buddy, buddy, why not go and announce your next stock split? I know typically you wait till the stock is 600 plus a share. That’s what he’s done in the past. Go ahead, announce it. Once we get to 555, something like that again, which I think is going to happen by Christmas Eve or on Christmas Eve.
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Yeah, I think the stocks can do very well once it goes through 500 tomorrow. Because again, people love to invest in a stock that’s having a stock split. You know, it shouldn’t matter because it doesn’t really impact the market cap or anything else about the company. But investors like the idea of, oh, you mean it’s not going to be 500, it’s going to be 130. You know, like a three for one split or something or, you know, whatever. It would be three for one on a $600 stock. Oh, you mean it’s going to be 250. And so all of a sudden people just think it’s cheap when you know it’s really not.
It’s no different, but it works. And there’s a big psychological impact of having a stock split. So I’d love to see. Let’s put that in the universe. I’d love to see that on Christmas Eve for all of our Tesla shareholders. You know, we try to put it in the universe that Jay Powell would resign at the last Fed meeting. I really felt good about that. The universe let me down.
I guess it wasn’t meant to be. But let’s put it out there for Elon to do these two things. These two things are going to happen, I believe. So why not On Christmas Eve. Let’s get this stock rocking and rolling, get it to $600 by the end of the year and then, you know, we’ll see it next year. A thousand plus, two thousand plus. This stock is, is going to be fantastic. And the product is extraordinary.
Okay, look, I’ve been talking about my Tesla on this podcast now for some time. Bought it in January. Right. Well, I’m picking up a new one on Tuesday. I just needed a 2026 because they did a refresh and it’s got features that I want. Maybe I’ll talk about that in the future. But anyway, I spent three days, over three days driving to pick up my mother and bring her back here for our Christmas party. Right.
And so it’s an eight hour drive each way. It was two trips. So 16 hours total in my Tesla without a single intervention. The car drove me, 16 in my mom. 16 hours without an intervention. Did everything change lanes. I mean, it has a mind of its own and it just reads my mind like when I’m thinking we should pass that car. Boom, here we go.
Right? It’s a little freaky the way it works, but it’s fantastic. It sees things I would never see. It’s got nine cameras all around it. Again, love Tesla. And again, the product launches coming next year are going to be, be fascinating. I saw this over the weekend. I think it was a good point. So many people have gotten used to Elon exaggerating timelines, which he does.
Look, we all know that he’s exaggerated timelines, but what if he’s not anymore? What if April is going to be the beginning of mass production of these cyber caps? What if all the things Musk has talked about happening in the first six months of 2026, what if those things happen? The Tesla semi, mass production. I, I know that’s coming. I mean, they’ve got the facility, I think the facility’s built and they’ve already started. I know there are a lot of, a lot of companies that have a Tesla, a semi, right, that are testing it out with their long, long haul delivery people. So, you know, obviously Optimus, you know, the target there I think is April for the next gen Optimus. So if these things actually start happening on time, I think there’ll be a lot of people that like, didn’t expect him to be on time with it. I, I would not, I would not wait for that. I, I would not want to risk it.
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Stocks are cheap here. It’s the number one stock of the innovation revolution, as you know. And Love everything about this company. Elon Musk and certainly my Tesla. Let me just make sure I miss anything. Again, the charts this weekend, just fantastic. From overbought to oversold, heavily oversold. Great setups that are just, they’re everywhere.
They, so many of these look the same. Again, rebel strength wise. Looking at these multiple charts I shared this morning, they’re all, they’re all pointing to a melted move higher in gold, silver and the, especially the miners, right, especially the junior miners are really starting to get legs. But again, when this bull market, these bull markets in the miners, they don’t last one year, they last two or three. I think this one’s going to last more than three years. So the big bull markets this year marked the beginning of the bull market. But next year I think is going to be, I think next year could be gains of 250% in GVX. The gold miners.
Right now it’s up 160. Call it, I think next year could be one and a half that time. Times that move. And some of these junior miners, like the ones that we own here, they’ve had great years. I think that, I think that, I think they’re going to speed up. You know, it’s going to be very, very good year to be long. Gold, silver and the miners. All right, let’s take a look under the hood today.
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Good internals today again. Today was a little sluggish, right? We got big gains. Then again the selling pressure came in for bitcoin. We lost some of our gains. We still finished up, you know, with handsome gains today across the board. Rose 2000, up 1.1%. Again semis, up 1.4%. But the afternoon was like comatose is like are we, are we still open here? What’s going on? Why aren’t the prices changing? Because that’s really what happened.
But it is Christmas week. Liquidity is going to be very light. But again so many people now are, are like, yeah, this market’s going to go higher. 2026 is going to be a fun year. I think there’s a lot of fun flow coming into this in anticipation of the Santa Claus rally and being long stocks into the new year. And of course once you get in the new year, here come serious fund flows right from, you know, institution money share buybacks. We’re ending the third quarter, excuse me, fourth quarter. So again a lot of reasons to be long as we go into January.
I would expect the first two weeks, I think from here the first two weeks of January could be very Very special indeed. That’s how we’re positioned and that’s what we see happening. Internals again today were good, not great but, but the sector watch was all but one sector higher today. NYSE right at 2 to 1 positive. Advanced decline. Nasdaq right at 2 to 1 positive. NYSE up volume 71.4%. That’s very strong.
Nasdaq up volume 65.6%. And we had one hundred and fifty more stocks hit fifty week high than a fifty two week low. Again sector watch today was very good. Ten of us, eleven sectors finished higher. Consumer staples were down four tenths of percent. There’s nothing there to the upside. 1, 2, 3, 4 sectors up more than 1%. Led by materials, financials and industrials and energy also as Tyler reminded me, we also had three sectors, at least three, but hit an all time high today.
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Bank stocks, both BKX and XLF both hit an all time high today as did the biotechs xbi. Again the broadening actions taking place here. You have to be pretty, you have to be pretty blind not to see this. You know if you ever hear anybody say yeah this market’s so thin it’s only got seven stocks going up, you’re going to know you’re listening to somebody that has not been paying attention. This is a bull market that is broadening, that is textbook. It’s extraordinarily bullish and it’s happening right now. We saw it again today in our, again commodity watch. We covered this minute ago.
Right now up 93 44.80. Silver up to 2.4% at 6909. Copper flat on the day, 5.5 cents a pound. Crude oil up 1.4% today, 57.96. And finally they again bitcoin which really needs to get going here again it’s well below the 200 day short term it looks good. Okay, technically we need those, those, those higher lows to continue happening. We had a high today of 94, excuse me, 89,400. And then again the morning selling came in right now last trade 88,315.
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Again the primary takeaway here of course we own bitcoin, we love bitcoin here. I think the primary takeaway is more than 95 of all Bitcoin has been mined. Right. And that’s gonna every year, you know, every four years. Certainly in the havings it’s just going to continue to be harder and harder to buy bitcoin. Best supply demand story there is. And I think anywhere, you know buying bitcoin in the. In the mid to high 80s, I think is going to serve you very, very well over the medium to long term.
Okay, folks, that’s it for the day. Hope you had a great day, a new, better night. See you back here again tomorrow after the close.