Welcome to the VRA Investing Podcast! On this lively Friday edition, host Kip Herriage dives into the latest market trends, the ongoing surge in gold and silver, and why retail investors have outsmarted Wall Street by betting big ...
Don’t look back because the market is closed. Good Friday (Kip meant Thursday) after everyone. Hope you had a great day today. Hope your week has been fantastic as well. I don’t know about where you live, but this weekend is going to get nice and chilly here. We’re going to have a couple back to back days of freezing temperature here in Sugarland, Houston area. So it’s time to wrap some plants. I know a lot of you’re just going, shaking your head, going, man, do you not understand? Our entire winter is colder than that.
So I understand, I sympathize. We’re just not that used to it here. So we’re stocking up, getting ready to camp out this weekend at home and get some good work done because there’s, there’s so much going on in the markets. It’s, it is. Look, we never Recommend More than 15 stocks at a time. I don’t know how people, I’ve said this before, I don’t know how people have a portfolio of 40, 50 stocks and keep track of it. I admire those that do and can’t. Right.
But our 15 keep us very busy. And of course we also pay attention to what was happening in politics out there in geopolitics because there’s been a lot of that this week with what happened of course at Davos and what happened happening of course in Japan. We’ve covered that this week a bit with the JGBs. It looks like that has passed again. When the Japanese Nikkei Dow, the Japanese, the Nikkei 225, if you will, the Nikkei Dow, when the, the Japan’s leading stock market is 1 1/2% from all time highs and it was just up 1.8% last night. We’re not getting any signs that the rising bond yields are creating any kind of habit. We’re just not getting the signs. There’s a lot of chatter about it, a lot of people are concerned about it.
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But as a reminder, our 10 year yield is 4.24%. Japan’s is 2.2%. First of all, that makes no sense at all. Trump’s exactly right. US Rates should be lower than anywhere else in the world. I, I think we’re looking, I think, I think that’s a teaser for the future. This is, this is a big core belief of ours that rates are really going to plummet this year and then, and then really, really go lower and then over the next couple of years, new Fed chair is certainly going to help. But if you saw the news, this, more Tyler covered this yesterday.
What’s really happening with inflation. Right, which we’re not. In other words, we don’t have it this morning. Truflation, which I was on. It was a busy, busy day for us here last night. Tyler was on with Wayne Allen Root on his show. Great interview, Tyler. It just gets better and better.
You’re really made for this. As it turns out today I was on a podcast with Grant Stitchfield that’ll, that’ll air tomorrow. Uh, Grant of course is the lead, uh, news guy on Real America’s Voice. It’s a super guy by the way. Just a very down to earth real guy that’s super intelligent. So it’s been great getting to know him, doing a weekly podcast with him now every Thursday. In fact they air every Friday. By the way, if you’re going to watch it on Rumble, that’s where you pick it up or you know, any, any of many networks.
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And then also today I was on Fox Business this afternoon with Charles Payne. And you know, one of the themes really is, is what’s happening with disinflation because the Federal Reserve is, I honestly think that, that Trump and Scott Besant have been nice to Jay Powell because there’s something really else going on here. I think most of us realize that. We know it’s political. We know that the Federal Reserve is part of the deep state again cartel, banking cartel is the number is the most powerful cartel on the planet. Of course the Federal Reserve runs that cartel. So I don’t think it’s really a secret to most people. But now that people are waking up and companies like Truflation who have thousands right of real time indicators that give them the same CPI output, not the same output, but they have the same, you know, goals for end result that the BLS’s CPI has.
But they had the BLS showing inflation at 2.7% with trueflation announced this morning, it’s at 1.2%. Folks, that, that is pure disinflation. That’s what’s happening here. And I think that’s a big reason the markets are going up. I think, I think bond yields would be collapsing here were it not for the Federal Reserve and global central banks. This is a control mechanism that they have on Trump and the Trump economy. Because look, in 2016 I wrote my second book, Crash Proof Prosperity Becoming Wealthy in the Age of Trump. Right.
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I wrote it in mid-2016. I endorsed Trump and honestly didn’t used to care for him. Wayne Root, Allen Root, a good buddy said, hey, he’s going to win Trump’s going to. This is in January 26th. I said, what are you talking about? What do you mean he’s going to win? I’m telling you he’s going to win. And then, you know, then I started paying closer attention to his policy issues and my goal. I didn’t care if it Trump with the Apprentice thing, that I was kind of embarrassed for him, frankly. But, you know, again, that’s before I knew what Trump’s all about.
And, but when I saw his policy issues completely America first, I was like, if this guy’s even halfway serious, he’s absolutely getting my vote. So by mid-2016, I endorsed Trump. I wrote this book, Crash of Prosperity, Becoming Wealthy, Age of Trump, where I predicted he was going to win, that the stock market would go up 25% in his first year. That happened. And that something would be born called the Trump Economic Miracle. So I actually named that in 2016. Not that everybody’s using that now, but I think they will be okay. I just, I think they will be.
It’s. You hear. Hear it every now and then. But, you know, when you see what’s happening with the GDP growth, you know, we’re at 5.4% according to the Atlanta Fed, and you see people like Elon Musk and Cathie Wood saying double digit GDP growth is coming, we’re at 8% by 2028. We’re now conservative compared to the people like Elon Musk and Cathie Wood who are. I would think we would agree, or Cathie woods is not a great stock picker as far as timing wise. They’ve made some mistakes there and their, their poor returns the last five years has shown that. But when it comes to macro, when it comes to getting the macro story right, their work is exceptional, just exceptional.
And of course, Elon Musk gives no one else like him. When he, when he speaks, you listen. So again, I think that, I think there’s going to be a lot of people saying, this is the Trump economic miracle. I used that today on Charles’s show, and I could tell he liked it because that’s why retail investors have been so right. One of our topics today, retail investors have bought the dip. For three years, retail investors have been right. Institutional and quants have been wrong. The smart money has been dead wrong.
The dumb money, as it’s called, has been exactly right. Why do you think that is? It’s because of Trump. Retail investors can see what Trump is trying to accomplish and now see what he is accomplishing. It’s happening, folks. Right. There is, there should be no uncertainty about this. The US Economy is in the process of being absolutely on fire. And Tyler keeps telling me that our 8% GDP target for 20 by 2028 is too low.
I, I think he’s absolutely right. You know, but start putting out targets like 10, 12, 15%. You know, I don’t know. I, I’d like just to at least get to six or seven. Right. And see, see even more momentum. But I, I, I, I do think Tyler’s right. And I also think Musk and Cathy Witter.
Right, so this is a Trump economic miracle. Combine that with the Trump Doctrine, which is Trump is basically burying our global competition with their communist strategies of big government and robbing from the people he’s showing them. Look what we’re doing. Your, your, your people, your voters, your people not think these are honest elections at all, but your people, your voters are. They hate you now because they see what’s happening in America. This is the Trump Doctrine forcing other countries to bend the knee to what we’re doing. And you can tell what happened at Davos with Trump’s reception. They’re listening, and they’re smart to do so.
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We’ll see at the end of the day how much change they actually make. But again, the bottom line is it’s happening in America. I want to cover this with you. Tyler covered this yesterday. And before I forget, when I was listening to Trumpet Davas, I thought back to this. The, the single best speech I’d heard Trump gave was his inauguration speech in 2024. And Trump said these words. You’ve been told to lower your expectations and to accept less for your families.
I’m here tonight with the opposite message. Your expectations are not big enough. They’re not big enough. It’s time to start expecting and demanding the best leadership in the world. Leadership that is bold, dynamic, relentless, and fearless. We can do that. We are Americans. Ambition is our heritage.
Greatness is our birthright. But as long as our energies are spent fighting each other, our destiny will remain out of reach, and that’s not acceptable. We must instead take that energy and use it to realize our country’s true potential and write our own thrilling chapter of the American story. We can do it together. We will unite. We are going to come together, and success will bring us together. Trump is manifesting this. And, you know, if you’ve been with us for a while, you know that.
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One of my favorite books is Manifest Your Destiny by Dr. Wayne Dyer. I recommend it to everybody. It, it’s a game changer. It has been a game changer for me in my life because what you think about, your brain, about it just changes, rewires your brain to think about what you want instead of be focused. Let, let the ego run your life. Ego is fear, anxiety, trying to control things. Right.
And I, I, I’m a bit of a control freak, so this really hit home with me. So that’s just, you know, a couple examples out of his book. But again, what you think about to bring about, I really encourage everyone. But I can tell you, Trump, if he’s not read this book, it doesn’t matter that it’s innate for him. It just, that’s just who he is, right? And it explains so much of his success, does it not? And so, you know, I think that that’s what we’re witnessing. We’re watching, we’re witnessing a metamorphosis of the United States, the US Economy, our culture, everything about it. And I know in the past when I’ve said this that there are people that bark back at me, and I don’t mind that at all. Right.
I think criticism and a good debate, I think it’s phenomenal, you know, for our society and for our way of life. But you don’t have to agree with Trump on everything. But on the things that he’s right about, where he’s America first and the things he’s doing economically, I don’t think that, I don’t think there’s any debate about this. No, he’s not a true conservative. He’s more of a Democrat in some ways than others. But this is the time we live in. We are in a time of financial engineering. We’re in a time of crazy money creation.
Right. But you have to know that that creates massive wealth. You just got to be on the right side of the, of the equation. There’s going to come a time, likely, I don’t know when it could be 10, could be 20, could be 50 years maybe. It never happens where this money printing results in a dangerous level of inflation because the money printer just gets out of control all over the world, Right. Again, higher rates in Japan. Again, you start to see signs like that, right? That frankly, that’s what they want to do. That’s rate normalization.
So they’re actually doing what they want to. I don’t think it’s reason to be afraid right now, but again, it’s something we’re aware of. But the environment, Germany is a good example. Everybody talks about, you know, the hyperinflation environment Germany. But nobody talks about the nine years before it. People got enormously wealthy in the nine years before that. Now the smart money realized, okay, we’re, we’re peaking. Let’s buy gold, right? And if you, if you had just one ounce of gold.
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This is so crazy. If you had just one ounce of gold in Weimar Germany, you could have bought an entire downtown block of real estate for that one ounce, one ounce. That’s how crazy the inflation got. So you got to know where you are in the cycles, right? And so to the people that are just always barking about, we have too much debt, it’s going to kill us. You know, maybe you’re going to be right one of these days. But in the meantime, wouldn’t you rather make a lot of money and then be in a position to take profits in those other positions and move it back into something more stable? You know, maybe there’ll be a time to put it back in cash. There are times that, that makes sense. This is, this ain’t that time.
Cash is trash. Again, that’s been a, that’s been a guiding principle of ours with gold and silver to a lesser degree, but gold, because we recommended gold as a Savings account since 2003. It is, it’s, it’s serves us very, very well. All right, what else did a lot to cover and go quickly. Again, we’re witnessing today, markets are up strongly today. Sold off a little bit at the close, but still good gains today. Nothing spectacular but again the recovery from Tuesday’s lows has been solid. But what we’re witnessing is the primary trend.
The primary trend, that’s what’s the most important to be focused on. Counter trend moves are scary in a bull market, but they’re buying opportunities. Again, that’s what the retail investors figured out. They know that Trump is executing and so they are buying the dips. That’s what, that’s, this is the area, this is the, the cycle we’re in now where dips must be bought because again, this move is just getting started. You know, our three big themes Trump, economic miracle, AI innovation, revolution and of course an absolute ocean of liquidity. These three things will continue to drive. We’re getting corporate earnings that you know, kicked off so far next week of course is when they really kick off A banks has done pretty well.
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Regional banks hit an all time high today and so we’ll get a better snapshot of that tomorrow. But starting next week, again, we think that for 2026, earnings will be up 18 to 20%. Wall street said about 14. Okay? So I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s over 20 because Wall street typically is about that wrong. But again, no, no inflation with disinflation, we’re probably going to have pure deflation within a couple of years. That, that could be a dangerous time to banks. That’s their problem. They’ve got to adapt or die.
Right? Just like we all have to. But again, we’re in the primary trend. That’s what we want to pay attention to as far as go, go, look at this. Go, go, go. My gosh. It just won’t stop, folks. It literally won’t stop. Gold now last trade.
Let’s go and cover commodities now goes up $104 today. That’s 2.1%. 4941. It’s right at the highs of the day. We are 60, 50 to me, $59 an ounce away from 5,000. I mean, holy moly guacamole, right? Silver up 4% today. 96, 40. You see a lot of people top calling.
You know, we saw that last week when gold, silver hit 93, then got knocked down to 88. And people. That’s it. That’s it. That’s. No, no, no, that’s not it. We are witnessing true price discovery take place. We talked about this a lot over the years and it’s happening.
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Gold was manipulated lower for decades by the major money center banks and central banks. That stopped in 2021 when JP Morgan lost a monster lawsuit, a federal investigation lawsuit that had been $920 million fine for manipulating gold and silver. And the manipulation ended. Then the bottom of gold was then 2001. So now we’re seeing true price discovery. There are other reasons, of course. The money printer, the fact that central banks and governments around the world just can’t own enough gold. And now the public is jumping in.
Remember, the public has less than 1% exposure to gold. That’s it. That’s it. If the public on average just increases their ownership of gold by just doubles it to 2%. Gold doubles from here, maybe more because of the leverage to the upside. And so again, this is, this is early. It’s too early. Gold should have been these prices 10 years ago.
As should silver. Right? Silver right now again, 93, 39 at 4% of the day. So that means these miners are going to just absolutely rock and roll. And today one of ours. Again, out of respect to our members, I won’t say the names today. Sometimes I slip and do it. We’re going to Talk about Tesla in a minute. Of course you know that’s what our favorite tech position.
It’s not a car company tech company, but one of our junior gold Miners Day up 15%, the other up 7% and both breaking out to new highs. And as a reminder also GDXJ, the junior gold miner ETF is up 63% in two months. So the junior miners are now leading this. The, the, the, the, the senior miners. The senior miners are, are leading gold by three to one. This is textbook bull market action for this group. Textbook. And it signals much higher prices.
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I’ve traded this group for a very long time and I know those relationships pretty well. And right now we’re getting even though they’re reaching overbought levels. Believe it or not, we’re not an extreme about yet. We’re getting closer to it. But again, there’s a magnet on silver to 100. There’s a magnet on gold of 5,000. I think we all see that now. We’re not far away.
Again, our long term targets, 15,000. That’s about 20, 30 on gold and 300 for silver. I would probably expect both of those estimates to be on the low side because this is that bull market which means the miners are going to make us absolutely bloody wealthy. Right. In case, in case we’re, in case you’re not already those listening out there. Again, thank you for listening. If you’re not with us, come join us for 2, 3 weeks. Vrainsider.com Again vrainsider.com get access to everything we have.
Doesn’t cost you anything. You, you can cancel any time and see what you think. We’ve got a great community here and we love to have you come and join us here as well. We, we believe we’re the smart money because, because we are. I mean I’m just being honest about it. I think the, I think we have the evidence that supports that statement. Right? Beat the market. 19 and 22 years we have been the smart money.
And we work hard to ensure that continues to be the case. Because the markets will crush you if they sense just, just a little bit of ego and braggadociousness. You just can’t do it. We act in humility here, but we also tell the truth. And those numbers are what we have accomplished. We are the smart money. That’s what the data backs up. Right.
And so, but again that’s because we work our ass off with this stuff. Me, Tyler, Sam, Josh, Danielle, and I know you all do the same thing. Okay. I want to again, you Know our thoughts on the minors? I don’t say anymore, do I? Tesla, big news, big news on Tesla. So, so many different things. Breaking with Tesla stock today is at 4%. Back to 450. Musk spoke at Davos today where he said some really interesting things about humanoid robots, AKA Optimus.
I had not heard this before but apparently according to Musk, they are going to be on the market being sold to the public by the end of next year. And he said these won’t just be humanoid robots that can do some things, they’re going to be able to do a lot of things. And he made a point about talking about the elderly. He said, no, the elderly. So many don’t want to move into retirement home or you know, any kind of a assisted living facility. But there are some things they can’t do. They’re just not mobile. They can’t cook for themselves anymore.
They need help changing light bulbs and just doing basic things. These shop, help shopping but, but otherwise they’re perfectly sharp mentally, just physically they’re breaking down a little bit. They need some help and they also could use some companionship. One of the saddest, one of the saddest reasons for death is depression and, and the elderly because they’ve outgrown their friends and maybe their family, maybe they don’t have it, maybe they’re just not close, whatever, right? Don’t see them enough. They’ve just run out of people to talk to. I know as I get older it’s not easy making new friends. Matter of fact, my group of friends has gotten smaller, not bigger. Now I’m very fortunate to have great friends in my life, but I don’t have time to goof off and do the things I used to do with my friends.
And so this relationships don’t tend not to stay as close. So that’s just the way it happens. But with Optimus, you can have a full time companion. We’re talking about a robot that’s a human being essentially. If you’ve used verbal Grok, audio Grok, and it’s in my Tesla too. I mean you just have a running conversation and so that’s what the brain of Grok is. And so companionship. A robot that can sit there and play the piano for you, play games with you, entertain you or just listen to you.
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I mean this, this is all so unbelievably massive. We have of course talked about the industrial applications and so, so much more. That’s so exciting though because as you know, I plan to be one of the first people to get a robot in our home. As to the cars, big news breaking today which, which accounted for a lot of the move higher. Musk announced today that in Austin, right where they’re based, that their, their cyber cabs, robo taxis are now driving without a safety driver. They had a safety driver sitting in the seat. Again, this is a car that doesn’t have a steering wheel, doesn’t have pedals. I mean these do right now because they’re essentially model Y’s but ultimately, you know, when the cybercaps come out in April, that’s when mass production begins this year, then they won’t have that.
They’ll just be cars or four seats or whatever. But they’re now not using. This is a big milestone. Also yesterday and I’ve got a personal story on this. Yesterday we learned that insurance company Lemonade, which is completely AI online I, I, I, it is fascinating to use this that they signed a deal where every Tesla driver that uses FSD full self driving will have a massive break in their insurance costs. So I’m a Tesla owner. I decided to try this myself. My insurance costs aren’t that cheap.
So I went to Lemonade and in five minutes it had all my information because I didn’t have to give it to it. It had, it knew, gave me a quote and said, do you want to sign up the price that I’m now paying? Of course I did. The price I’m paying is 60% less than what I was paying yesterday. And again this is for all Tesla drivers that use fsd. And it said it expects my interest cost to go even down further as data begins to build up and it shows how much safer I am. I’m a good, I’m a good driver anyway, by the way. But I tell you, using fsd, it’s such a better driver than I could ever be. I love driving my Tesla.
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It’s a fun car to drive but you know, there’s sometimes long trips you just rather not have to drive and that’s what this, what this car does. So a lot of exciting things happening with Tesla. This is just the beginning. And again, it’s our stock of the, it’s, it’s our stock of the innovation revolution. It’s the company of the innovation revolution. And God bless Elon Musk as well. I say a prayer for him every morning with everyone else that I pray for and give thanks for. He’s one of the people, as is Donald Trump.
I feel like there was something else to on Tesla, but there’s always so much to talk about. Tesla, all time highs today. Again, small caps transports. If I could read my handwriting, mid caps. This is all from Tyler and regional banks. All time highs today. But again, clear evidence. The market continues to broaden and it’s doing it as Tyler just told me, without, without the mag 7.
This is clear broadening again, textbook bull market playing out right in front of us as these breakouts continue to happen across the board. Now small caps have gotten red hot. They’re overbought now for sure. But as said on Charles show today, unless, unless you’re using leverage ETFs, which we do. So we have stops in. But unless you. There’s just no reason to take profits in small caps, right? So we like to trade these, okay, because they’re great trading vehicles. But small caps are just broken out.
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We expect this is going to be one of those years. It’s one of our core positions in small caps. And I think it’s going to be a sensational year as will be for the rest of the market. What an exciting time to be alive. And who said this quote? Oh, Musk said this. Tyler told me about this quote from us. Let’s see if I get it right. I would rather be an optimist and be wrong than be a pessimist and be right.
I think there’s a lot of wisdom in that. And I think also if you can’t be an optimist with everything happening today. Yeah, I know there’s a lot wrong too. But if you can’t be optimistic about where we’re headed, I don’t know that you ever could be an optimist. I think it’ll be clear to everybody in a couple. It’ll be easier for everybody in a couple of years because that’s where we’re headed folks. This is that bull market. This is that economic boom time and it’s a very, very special time to be alive.
I think it’s a great Friday message. I like hearing it. I know I believe this and hopefully you like hearing it as well. All right, let’s take a look under the hood today. Under the hood internal state. We’re good 2 to 1, fast decline. Both NYC and Nasdaq good up volume today. NYC 68.7% Nasdaq 63.6.
And check this out. This is a new, a new high for the year. 852 stocks 150k to just 50 88. Hitting a new 52 week low again. Broadening, playing out right before our eyes. Sectors today. Seven sectors finished higher. Four finished lower.
Again, we covered commodities a minute ago. I did not cover copper. Today was up a half percent. 580 a pound. Crude oil today down a dollar, five a barrel. 5,957. And finally they bitcoin up. Look, people are buying gold and silver.
What can I say? These rotations take place. We talk about this all the time. Bitcoin is going through a rotation now. It is a buying opportunity. And I think again, thinking long term here and the way bitcoin trades with these cycles I think is a very smart move. We buy bitcoin every month. So. So I think that’s the smart play here.
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Last trade, 89,338. All right folks, that’s it for today. Hope you had a great day, an even better weekend. Stay warm out there. We’ll see you back here again Monday after the close.
In today’s episode, Kip dives into a jam-packed discussion on the current state of the markets, the ongoing geopolitical tensions influencing oil prices, and why he believes we're witnessing the start of a generational bull market. After a strong close in the markets—with all major indices up and the VIX continuing its downward slide—Kip shares his perspective on why the relentless negativity from mainstream media, especially surrounding the US-Iran conflict, is actually a bullish signal for investors. He highlights the resilience of key sectors like semiconductors and technology, breaks down the momentum behind Bitcoin and emerging cryptos such as TAO, and explains why recent market dips are a gift for those with a long-term and optimistic outlook. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.
Welcome back to the VRA Investing Podcast! On this episode, host Kip Herriage dives into what’s been a challenging week for the markets, examining everything from geopolitical uncertainty and its impact on oil prices to the pulse of investor sentiment and Federal Reserve actions. Kip Herriage shares sharp insights on the recent correction in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, the effect of the ongoing war on global markets, and what history tells us about rates during wartime. You’ll hear why extreme fear among investors, record-level put buying, and oversold technical indicators might actually be setting the stage for a major market rebound.
In today's episode, Tyler Herriage breaks down another volatile day on Wall Street, offering his signature optimism even as markets face downward pressure. From big moves in oil and energy to the seasonal dynamics of this traditionally bullish period, you'll get a behind-the-scenes look at how headlines, and not fundamentals, are shaping investor sentiment. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.
In today's episode, Kip breaks down the day’s market moves and zeroes in on what’s driving investor sentiment right now. In this episode, Kip explores why oil and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remain at the heart of market volatility, sharing his thoughts on media narratives, the potential for lower oil prices, and the international power plays influencing the global economy. Kip also digs deep into the power of seasonality, noting that while the last few weeks have been muted, historical patterns point to a strong melt-up in March and April. He highlights the ongoing tech leadership especially from semiconductors and walks listeners through the crucial “first in, first out” indicator, which signals that a new rotation into tech, software, and Bitcoin is underway. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.
In today's episode, Tyler breaks down a wildly eventful start to the week in the markets, picking up where Kip left off with yesterday’s big reversal day. From the latest on the ongoing conflict in Iran and the impact of geopolitical headlines, to lessons learned about market psychology (including why you should never sell on a Monday), Tyler Herriage navigates through the market’s volatility and shares key themes like liquidity and optimism in the face of fear-driven narratives. Tune into today's podcast to learn more
