Foreign. Don’t look back because the market is closed. Good Monday afternoon, everyone. Kip Herriage here with the daily VRA Investing podcast. Hope you had a good day today. Hope your weekend was fantastic as well. Your Mother’s Day weekend. All the moms out there, thank you.
Thank you for making our lives so easy. You know, probably not appropriate say so on this podcast. It just popped my mind. I tell if any woman that knows me right has heard me say this at least once, so I might as well stay on a podcast. One time. I thank God every day pretty much that I was born a man. But I. When I say it to women, no makeup, no having children, and I could go on forever, right? But when I say this to women, they.
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They every. Almost every time they say, I feel exactly the same way. Thank God I’m not a man. So, you know, there’s two sexes. There’s. There’s supposed to be this difference between us, and then it brings the commonality together. That’s why this works. And you know, my wife is the best ever.
We married 37 years and never had a fight. I used to say that on stage. Every event that she was at because she hated it so much, I would. I’d pick her out, see where she was standing or sitting, and then I’d. I’d make sure I had eye contact with her when I said that. She abs. I don’t know why she hated it so much, but she really hated it. You know, I.
I don’t know, I thought it was kind of funny. But, yeah, different strokes, different folks. But let’s again, hope you had a great weekend and a great Mother’s Day. To all the wonderful moms out there today. Today was a good day. Right? We’ll talk about happening today because you look at the. The final indexes and you go, what are you talking about? We had minor gains across the board. I mean, that’s good to see.
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But this is a great day. We’ll talk about that today. Panic buying. You know, I wrote it up this morning on letter. This is. This is panic buying. That has got a long ways to go. There are a lot of people, and you may know some of them.
You may be one of them. Because, frankly, this always surprises me when I talk to a lot of our members. I’d say it’s 40, 50%. I mean, I’m like, you read my stuff every day. Thank you. Thankfully, a lot of you read it and listen to our podcast. Thank you for that. Thanks for your great emails.
By the way, one of these Days I’m just gonna have to spend a whole podcast just reading the emails we got we get every day, or at least every week from you. They’re just so awesome. And hey, we’re just doing our job. But, you know, we’re just glad you’re here to share it with us, right? I have to read these emails for this day because they’re just exceptional. But there are people that are trapped. And I know a lot of these people, again, probably a lot of you listening that are just fear stricken. I think that’s the right way to say it, that something really bad’s about to happen. It’s like you sense it, it’s in your DNA, it’s in your core.
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You know it and you’re on a knife’s edge. And all it’s going to take is one thing. Now look, you may be right because there are a lot of one things that could happen that could, could, could send the whole world into turmoil. I don’t, I don’t, I don’t doubt that at all. But this. Bull markets continue to climb a wall of worry and it’s going to keep doing it. And the reason I know that is because there’s so many people that aren’t in it. If you hate Trump, you’re probably not participating in this.
And again, I’ve talked about this a lot with you before. You know, again, I’m not Tyler and I just had this conversation. By the way, I am not impacted by propaganda. I see it immediately. And I don’t think I’ve always been this way. It feels like it because I’ve had this, I’ve had this. It’s like my super, it’s like my super talent, right? I can, I see it, I smell it, I sense it. I get the, I get the heebie jeebies from it because I see it right away when someone’s trying to do it, a network or whatever.
But for me, I know when, I know when I got the ability, right, to see through it. It was 911 for me, looking into 911 changed me as a person completely and it’s helped me as an investor immeasurably. But there are so many people, the majority, no doubt, that are impacted by propaganda. And right now they’re saying we’re in war with Iran. Look at the $25 billion we spent. Like that’s a big number anymore. That is such chump change, right? We’re past that. You know, I want to think about real money.
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Guess there’s about a trillion dollars about to be spent on the reconstruction of Ukraine. That’s big money. But it’s going to be a big fiscal stimulus. People look at it as a negative. It’s not. We don’t live in that world. That world is bye bye. It’s funny money.
We’re in the melt up stage of the funny money. That’s what the big bribe is all about. That’s what the book’s all about. And we’re in the throes of it, meaning in a good way. And that’s why this, this is. We’re early. We’re early. Yeah.
What is our debt right now? 38 trillion, I think. I mean, wake me at 50. Wake me at 50 and you may think I’m kidding. I’m not. We’re still going to catch up to China and Japan. Our debt to GDP is 120%. But see now the difference is our GDP is actually starting to grow. You’ll see that this year.
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I know we got a lot of doubters, people that still don’t believe we’re going to have 5% GDP this year, 8% GDP in 2028. Tyler thinks that’s slow. I think he’s probably right. But we’re gaining on our debt. I mean that’s, that’s the way you inflate your debt away. That’s, that’s what Trump and Bess are doing. Again. If people would just kind of look through the first, the first layer of what’s happening, you’d see it.
But, but again, I mean I, I’ve been, I’ve been singing this tune for so long and again I get abused online whenever I do it. But you know, if you’re right, you’re right. So keep saying it. Japan’s debt to GDP is, it’s got to be 300 now. China’s, if you believe their numbers, China’s at 250, 260, we’re at 120. So again, it, it, Unless they get into trouble. Well, I guess we’d bail them out. But again, the point being we’re in the funny money stage of this where debt levels do not matter.
For countries, especially if you have the world’s reserve currency, which of course we do, we can literally print a $40 trillion bill insert into the economy, pay off our debt. You think I’m kidding? I’m not kidding. We have that power because we have the world’s reserve currency. It’s actually a pretty good idea. What’s anyone going to do about it? They get paid back. That’s the Kind of monetary restructuring that you may not hear it in a few years and laugh about it. It may become to pass. And by the way, my real thought on this, I don’t know how I got on this topic, but the way I think, the way I think our debt’s going to be resolved, I do believe that the gold’s going to come back in some form, some capacity as the gold standard to back our debt and maybe even the dollar, probably just our debt.
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I do think Trump’s investment had that plan. They, they’ve talked about it before. It’s been a while since they’ve talked to it, which makes me more curious. Right. I think that happens next year. But in the bigger picture, longer term, whoever loses World War iii, the losers of World War III will have to pay our debt because we’re not gonna, we’re not gonna lose that war. We’re gonna win that war. And I think that’s probably a 2040 story, right? Again, if you’re new to us here, if I don’t sound like a crazy person, you know what, I’m used to being called that.
I just rather be right sometimes crazy is right. And if you’re new here, again, thanks for being here. We’ve entered. This is. We’ve been saying this. Honestly, I feel weird saying this every. I’m trying to get away from saying this all the time because I know you regular listeners like, damn it, Kip, just shut up. We’ve heard this so much from you in the last four years, but it’s just true.
We said this four years ago in our August 2022 book, the Big Bribe, that we’ve entered a generational bull market. Again, Biden was president. People really thought we were crazy then. But it’s played out essentially as we said it with our megatrends and all that. So this is going into 2030. So again, no one has a perfect crystal ball. Look, 2018 happened. 2020, right.
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20, 2018 was the Federal Reserve meltdown. The fourth quarter, brutal. Just a little more brutal than that was the pandemic. Again, markets. These are all three to four week sell offs. I’m going through this for a reason. 2025, last year’s tariff mania, three to four week meltdown. And now this year, right, with the war, three to four week meltdown.
But it’s what happened next. Again, we’ve been pounding the table on this call. And this, as you see this, this, this, this panic, panic buying melt up taking place. And again, it’s going to continue. This is what Matters. What I’m about to tell you jot this down. The average move higher after the previous three, three to four week meltdowns. 2018, 2020 22, 2025 was about, I’m sorry, the average move higher after those three to four week meltdowns was 70, right.
At 70% as of today’s close. And that’s, that’s Nasdaq by the way. As, as of today’s close, Nasdaq is only up 29% from the March 30 lows. Only up 29%. So dude, that means we got 40% left. That’s 40. I’m going to write this up tomorrow. Zero Hedge put out some good stuff on this just, just a few minutes ago.
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And you know, they’re, they’re, they’re perma bears. So I’m a little concerned whenever they start talking about, you know, a panic driven move that’s going to continue. But they’re actually quoting somebody else’s work. So I’ll share it. Tomorrow’s letter to just give you an idea of how much further this move has to go. At the beginning of the year I said it would be a 30% up year for the S P500 and maybe a 50% up move up upside year for Nasdaq. And then when the war broke out and the markets were negative on the year, I didn’t, that prediction looked pretty horrible. But as you, if you know me, you know I never backed down from it, right? And now this chance I could be on the low side.
That’s what this year is going to be like. And again it’s because so many people are trapped not in this market. And every day is like this, like even today. We’ll cover it in a minute. But the internals were not good today, right? The internals haven’t been good. We had one day last week the internals were good. Other than that, the last six trading days, the internals have been not good. Not horrible, but not good.
You’ve had a lot of big updates. There are a lot of people look at that and go, the market breath. How can you be so bullish when the market breath is so horrible? I’m like, you got this backwards. How can you be bearish when the market’s going up with this kind of horrible breath? Don’t you understand what’s happening here? This is an internal bearish rotation rotation taking place. So yeah, we have more stocks going down every day than going up. But the, all that matters is the price action to, to the Indexes, they’re, they’re, they’re, they’re continuing to rise. So this is again, textbook bull market action. Here’s more evidence of that.
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And I wrote this up this morning, by the way. Semis today, up another 1.7% today. Bitcoin. These are our two, remember our two leaders. All right, two liquidity tells are bitcoin and semis. Reverse order semis and bitcoin. They’re the two again, semi study, up another 1.7%. Bitcoin today up 2.2%.
So if you’re going to just follow two things, those are the two, those are your directional tells. They’re liquidity tells. Okay? So you know, over the weekend I’m running my charts and screens. I’m like, my God, how far are we above the 200 day moving average for the semis? Like we’re 53% above the 200 day moving average. So I researched that. Has that ever happened before? Yeah, it turns out it has once. Guess when dot com melt up. All right.
In fact, this is absolutely insane. If you think 53% above the 200 day moving average, which is again, has only happened twice. If you think that’s high, guess where the peak was. The semis hit 110% above the 200 day moving average. Now that was the bubble pop, right? And I understand when I get that kind of analogy going, Kip, it sounds like you’re telling us we’re about to reach a bubble top. No, I’m not saying that because I’ll repeat again, same as four years. This innovation revolution is going to be so much more powerful, broad, longer lasting. The dot com was again, dot com was.
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We didn’t even know what it was for two years. What, what is a dot com? Oh, it’s a, it’s, it, it’s a company that is doing what? Oh, they’re helping with email sends. Okay, that’s pretty cool. Oh, online shopping. That’s gonna. And maybe, maybe wireless communication. Okay, now it’s starting to click, right? Well, it took a couple of years for the boom to really get going and then, then we’re all, you know, locked in. Right? And then the last three years were insane.
But it was all about one thing. It was about.com AI. And by the way, this isn’t really. That’s why we call it the innovation revolution because it’s so much more than just about AI. AI is the foundation for what’s happening now. The, for the insanity that’s taking place. The capex bin and all that, but this again is far broader, longer lasting. This is why we’re saying 20, 35 maybe into 2000 and 40s.
This is going to be spectacular. The amount of wealth that’s going to be generated here is going to be insane. Which is why you have to be in the market, right? I mean that’s the discounting mechanism that’s telling us what’s coming. So yeah, semis are extended, no doubt about it. Extreme robot on steroids on the various system, no doubt about it. But the leaders are still leading. And again this internal rotation where you have weakness, right, taking place breath in, in the volume and all that. But at the same time the market keeps going up.
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Are we due for a day, are we due for a big shakeout day? Honestly, I don’t think so, not yet. I mean we’ll have one. But I think the key to remember is these tips are going to be very short lived. This is a melt up bull market, this is panic buying. A lot of people aren’t in this market. Still got $8 trillion in money markets. Again these are people that are living in fear. I mean I think at this point people realize they’ve woken up to the, the dangers of inflation.
People have woken up to, all right, I leave my money in the bank account, right, it’s safe, but I’m losing money every year. Yeah, you are, but it’s not impacted them. Still. 8 trillion in money market, 23 trillion now empty money supply. That’s cash and cash equivalents. People are scared shitless still. Again the 2008, you know, fear is, and the, the wounds are still fresh. But again that’s bullish, right? That’s the wall of worry right in front of us.
Very few people talking about this. 37 trillion sitting in home equity, right? These are all of course all time records. 37 trillion home equity. But one thing holding us back and it’s why the market didn’t do better today is what is happening with the war, right? I mean oil prices are getting close to 100 again up what, 3% today, right? Yeah, 3.8% today. Right. And because of that 10 year yield today back to now over 4.4%, 4.41% now. So that, that is concerning and that, that’s why you know, you had yet some a bit of weakness today. Uh, again we still finished across the board higher but it was, you know, barely so and that’s the reason you’re in.
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Trump say things like this. The ceasefire is on life support. I think that’s his quote. Today, you know, and he’s basically telling them, we’re, we’re coming at you again if we got to. They’re not, this war’s over. It’s over. But I know that it’s over for this week. How do I know that with certainty Trump’s going to China.
We’re not going to be bombing Iran when Trump is over there trying to get this. Trump wants China to be the heavy and to put the real pressure on Iran. That’s why Trump’s going, he, they’re, they’re going to be the negotiator, they’re going to be the middleman, they’re the arbitrator, they’re going to get this done. That’s what Trump is going to plan to do. And there’ll be a big carrot in there for China as well, which I actually think Chinese tech stocks here are really cheap and we’re looking at that here in the VR portfolio. Just want to see the chart. Continue to act a little better, but boy, the valuations are dirt cheap. But I do think, I think China, Chinese tech is going to have a good run, play some catch up, right? Although we’re still the place to be.
So the market gets a, you know, a pass this week with any war concerns because just nothing’s going to happen this week. And again, I, I think again we said it a long time, when Trump pivots, he pivots. It’s over. Trump’s focus now is on melting the markets up. This is Trump investment and soon to be Kevin Wash, by the way, this week, adios to J. Frickin Powell. That’s, that’s their prerogative. That’s number one.
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Melt the markets in the economy up and win the midterms and enjoy our 250th anniversary. Enjoy the World cup, enjoy the Olympics. What a year. What a year. Animal spirits. Yeah, they’re back. All right. What war? I mean, frankly, what, what war? Look at the markets.
That’s what they’re telling you. But again, if we were to have a shakeout, it’d probably be because something happened in Iran, something happened in the straight and again, that would give us that flush. But again, I think that dip’s going to be very short lived. So, yeah, the panic buying continues. That’s our call. It’s my call. I don’t know about Tyler’s. I think I do though.
Tyler’s a little smarter than I am. He knows when to use a little risk mitigation. I’m not quite that smart. What else did I write this morning? Something else I wanted to cover with you. Oh, I just wrote up some of our favorite stocks. Again if you’re with us, you got that this morning. But again I think the, the areas, the folk, the areas we want to stay focused on here like hyper focus, right. It, it’s, it remains tech, it’s AI, you know, that’s the play.
And you know they’re moving from one mini sector to the next, right. So some great companies that really haven’t moved yet. There’s some great companies that combine cryptocurrency and AI that are just starting to move. So I think we’ve got some big moves ahead. And of course as you know, one of our favorites is Tesla. Tesla the last 30 days is now up 34. That’s the best month it’s ever had in history. I, I, I saw a guy quote that today that I trust.
I have not run those numbers, but I trust him. I’ve never, I don’t think I’ve ever called being wrong. He’s a real Tesla guy, even more than I am. 34 is the best single month in the company’s that can’t be right. Tesla says such big moves. Anyway we know I’ll look into it but it’s one of the best. And as I wrote this morning, we’re now looking at the breakout of what is the highest conviction technical setup there is. A multi year cup and handle formation.
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And that’s now happened once if that’s right and that’s I’ve had this confirmed. I’ve looked most multiple people are saying this right. I’m not a couple cup and handle expert but I’ve seen enough other people talking about it that I know this is right. I asked Rock Rock confirmed as well. Grock’s my favorite AI. We’re buddies, just, it’s amazing. So what that means is once we break out to a fresh all time high which is probably going to happen this week, right? Stock was up again today. Again Today was interesting, right? Today was really interesting for Tesla open down at one point down what 2% finished up almost 4, 6% swing today finished up 16, 17 bucks a share.
Just, just barely ticked under 450. So yeah, all time high this, this week that is going to be 489 is the, let me just double check that. Yeah. 49 from the December 22nd. So we’ll hit an all time high this week in Tesla and that’s going to be what’s key to this chart to sub cup and Handle formation breakout is that once that happens we should be parabolic. It should be completely vertical. So everybody’s been laughing at my thousand dollar target for by year end. We’re gonna see if you’re laughing when it hits 600 in the month of June because guess what’s going to happen shortly after the stock hits 600.
Everyone’s going to be talking about the next stock split because it will be nearby. Musk likes to do this at 600. The history of this, we’re like a week away from being at that price. That’s how powerful this move is going to be. I’m going to write this up tomorrow but I’ve been thinking I get getting a lot of questions about you know, my experiences dot com, my memories of it. Amazon was a stock that I owned that I did the best in besides ultra petroleum. A lot of you know that story. Amazon though was the dot com stock that I owned that I refuse to sell.
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Amazon was up 5,500% in that five year time frame, give or take a few percent. Tesla is the Amazon of.com sock should be 600 now that’s the value that I believe should already is already built in. It should be there now, right? Stock’s been again five year cup and handle. These are fairly rare. But when it gets to 600 everyone’s gonna be talking about anyway Tesla’s the, the Amazon of dot com. If that’s right and if by some chance Tesla is able to go up 5500% that means the stock’s going to 24 000. Now I don’t think that’s going to happen. Our target is 10,000 by 2036.
But if Musk pulls off what he’s talking about with Optimus and with cyber cabs and completely autonomous transportation. Remember it’s not just cars, it’s trucks too. It’s the semi. And it’s not just on earth, it’s on other planets. I mean this is going to get crazy folks. This is what an amazing time to be alive, right? Never been a better time to be an optimist. Speaking of optimist, but again Amazon and Tesla, that’s the comp that I think is going to play out. Do not sell your Tesla again.
Tom. I’ll talk about this. Our two favorite people, I think Trump’s one of my favorite of course but in the investment world it’s Elon Musk and Jensen Wang. These are remarkably modest people. How that’s even the case I don’t know. How can you Be that wealthy and still be that modest. I just. There’s the great people.
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That’s how. But what do they share besides very high intellect, great work ethics and big balls? What do they share? They share optimism. They’re optimistic. There’s not a single person that I can think of. My buddy Ryan is texting me right now during the podcast. He listens every day. Hey, Ryan, thanks for distracting me. We have some great, great conversations.
Great guy. Manages like $500 million and been with us for a long time. Just phenomenal guy. Christian, big family man, got his life, you know, he’s got his head on straight, Right. He reminds me a little bit, honestly of Wang and Musk. He’s got that same outlook. Great guy, but they’re optimists. I can’t think of a single person I want to emulate, someone I respect, really look up to that’s not an optimist.
Name one business builder that’s gone down in the record books. And what do they, what do they share? Optimism. I think there’s a lesson in there for all of us. Anyway, great time to be an optimist. All right. I think that’s most of what I’m covering today. We’re going to be spending more time at least in the vra. We’ll probably bridge over here some.
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I talked about a bit on Friday about the IPO world because for everybody that thinks we’re close to a dot com top and it is so many people, right? Michael Burry, big short fame, of course he’s out everywhere saying, of course all the media is picking it up because again, that’s the propaganda they want out there, right? The psyop of negativity. Again, that’s another long term theme of ours. It’s very real. But so many people think this can’t go on. This is ridiculous. It’s a dot com top. Let me, let me give you something else to think about. I shared this this morning.
Our letter. In just two years, 1999 and 2000, a total of 194 companies went public and their stock prices more than doubled on the first day. We have to have one of those. I don’t know. One maybe. There’s one I hadn’t thought about. We got a big one coming out this week. CRBs.
Cerebrus, I believe they pronounce it. Yeah, it’s another AI company, chip company. It’s, it’s got reach. It’s going to do real well and we’re probably going to be buying it in the VRA we have an IPO strategy because. And by the way, we had 45 companies that tripled on day one in those two years. We have to have one. Okay? That’s where we are. We haven’t even gotten to the AI IPO craze yet.
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It’s starting, though, right? This is the first. Right. The next three months is going to be the first time we’ve entered it. We’re. We’re in it. This is, this is when you must stay locked in. In my opinion, if.com is any kind of a guide, that’s what we’re doing here at the vra. We’re staying locked in.
But, but the IPO theme is something I’ve been putting a lot of thought into. And so I’ve been doing this research because very few investors are going to get these at the IPO price, and a lot of people won’t touch them because of that. I’m not going to. What do you mean? You’re thinking I should pay double what the stock went when IPO that in the first day? What do you think, I’m an idiot? No, the smart money is doing exactly that. Now, they don’t all work like that, but a lot of them do. And so that’s our job to find out the ones that will. And so that’s something else we’ll be working on the. We’re not going to do a lot of them.
We’ll pick our spots. But I would think, I would think over the next six months, we’ll probably buy 10 IPOs in the secondary market and hold them for a week or a month. Again, we got to get the time frame just right because some of these just don’t stop going up. Right. So again. But we don’t. We, but that’s not our, that’s not our lane. That’s not our bread and butter.
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So we’re not going to be doing a lot of it, but we are going to pick in our spots. So we’re going to be far more active than we typically are. For some of you, that’s a good thing. Others maybe not. We’re not going to be. You’re not going to be day trading or anything like that, but more active anyway. All right, let’s take a look under the hood today again. Turtles were not good.
Quickly Advanced decline for NYC and Nasdaq, both negative by one and a half to one. Volume today positive for Nasdaq barely 50.8%. NYSE negative 54.4%. Volume we did have right at 300 more stocks. If it’s to be kind of 52 week low, that’s good by the way. Put call ratio closer to 0.78. That’s, I mean that’s, that’s not, that’s right in the middle. You know what we don’t want to see are the foot call ratios in the 50s.
Right. That’s, that’s, that’s, that’s pretty much the kiss of death for a market rally. Right. When you see that that’s probably the time to dial it back a little bit. You know, maybe raise a little cash. But we’re not there yet. But we’re getting closer. But again we think this rally continues.
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Sector watch about the same today actually has six sectors higher. 45 lower. Upside energy 2.6% again energy stocks look very good here. Materials up 1.4%. Industrials up 1 to the downside. Communication services down 2.3%. That’s really about it. Commodity watch very quiet today again all the attention right now is on AI and tech.
Right. Semis. But I just found interesting that you know even though oil was a big today again. Oil up today 3% last 98 25. And rates were higher again for the 10 year at 4.4%. Gold still finished up 15 bucks an ounce. That is. I think that tells you the underlying strength that’s in place for gold in the miners here.
I really do. And the miners were up big today. So you know they outperformed gold by, by a long shot today. GDX the gold miner ETF was up on the day. Yeah. 3.1% right. As that’s a tell, right? You always want the miners leading gold. Now what, what they didn’t lead silver.
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Silver up 7.3%. Again this is another tell. When silver is screaming higher that tells you the global economy is in really good shape and picking up steam. It’s also a liquidity tell. Right. We can actually include in our semis and bitcoin as liquidity tells. We can include gold and silver for sure. You want four? There’s your four.
There’s your four because. And they’re still leading higher even as oil’s up big and rates are up big. That’s a big tell again. Silver last trade 86.80. Now this is going to be a catapult move higher in silver. Mark my words. Mark my words. People that thought the 127.
I think that’s what it hit all time high. Was that before the war started that no, no, no. That’s not an all time high. Silver’s going to 300, gold’s going to 15,000. And I’m probably going to be on the low side. All right. The money printing is not going to slow down and that means gold and silver must continue to be bought. Copper that 3% again, same thing.
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Copper showing you strong global economy. And it is 649 a pound. Oil we just covered finally a bitcoin today. Again kind of quiet, but again actually it was up 2.2% today and really ready to go. This move will take it through all time. High by year end will be back to. What was it? 126, I think today. Up 2%.
Last trade, 81, 673. And you know our new favorite I wrote up this morning. I’m not going to say it every day because it’s not fair to our current members. You know my new favorite crypto and it’s up 125% in the last two months. Right? That’s a tell. Yeah, we’re buying that hand over fist. It’s FYI. All right folks, that’s it for the day.
Hope you had a great day and you have a better night. We’ll see you back here again tomorrow after the close.