In today's episode, Kip breaks down another historic day for the markets, with all four major indexes hitting back-to-back all-time highs—a first for the year. Kip dives into why "new highs beget new highs," analyzing textbook b ...
Foreign. Don’t look back because the market is closed. Good Thursday afternoon everyone. Kip Herriage here with the daily viewing investing podcast. Hope you had a good day today. I think you had a good day today, did you not? You know maybe not a great day, but it was a very good day. Back to matter of fact first time this year we just had back to back all time highs in all phaser all four of our major indexes S500, Dow Jones, NASDAQ and Russell 2000. So little golf, little golf.
Clap for that. That is called new highs Beget new highs. One of one of Tyler’s favorite things to say because this is we’re witnessing textbook bull market action. We’ll talk about that a little bit today. Going to talk about my SpaceX theory and what’s happening in the market because I think it is playing out and I think that means we’ve got a couple of weeks that are going to be. I’m going to use the word I probably never used before to describe the markets. I think the next two weeks going to be divine. I think these are going to be memorable weeks.
[00:01:05]:
Melt up. I’ll explain that more in a moment. Kind of been a theme of ours here for the last few days. Got a war update for you. Woke up this morning, futures are down close to 400 points. I’m like oh my God, it’s been such a good run. What’s going on here. And of course there was fresh military action that got resolved apparently and now we’re very close to a deal again.
It looks like obviously all of NASDAQ futures were wiped. Losses were wiped out even before the open because we got some economic data this morning with the, the, the, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge known as the. All of these, all of these various indicators they have and frankly tell you the truth, most of them don’t mean anything. They just don’t. Right. They don’t mean anything. The the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Bureau of Economic Analysis that compile this, it is a laughing stock. These are laughing stocks of the organization.
I think they really created these just to give people jobs because by the time the debt. First of all the data collection is the best word to describe it is pathetic. It takes them many of these reports revised so many times because it takes them a month or two, in some cases three months to even get the data to begin with. And I’m not making this up. As crazy as it’s going to sound, this is the way it happens. And so by the time you get the data. Number one, can you trust it? No. Number two, is it current? No, it’s stat is stale.
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It’s not to be believed at all. This is why this, and this is I think what’s going to change under Trump Bessant and now Warsh, the way this data is collected and communicated, right. We’ve talked often here about truflation. Truflation is a, all of the data they collect is like AI, it’s real time. And so you can go to their site and they’re like, it changes like every hour. You can see what the current CPI is, what other various economic data is. And why don’t we have that at the government level? Because truflation, I don’t have the exact number but I know it’s in the 2% range for inflation, right? Not the data report we got today which was 3.3% again for the PC Price Index. And Trueflation is proven to be so much more accurate.
I think that, that they’re gonna, they’re gonna, they’re gonna make some much needed changes here. I’ll tell you the truth. I think about 90% of those people that have these jobs in this data collection and, and compiling it, I really think they can just be let go. Again if, if that’s your job, I apologize. Go, go, go talk to the people that run truflation. Maybe they’re hiring. But again it, it’s, the data is stale is why we have never, right? We have never ever once said oh this month’s data is really important because there is no one month that matters. You have to look at a trend and frankly, you know, at least three months, frankly with this data collection, probably six months even if that will make sense.
So what does it make more sense to follow, right? Stale economic data or what’s happening right in front of us, our eyes. What’s happening right in front of us Prices. Price action is really all that matters. And the market’s telling you every day what that price action is. With this end result and again today, all time highs and all four major indexes, I trust that over. I’m going to trust some big time lagging economic data that frankly no one remembers this the day after it comes out. That’s how bad it is, right? It said tomorrow everyone’s going to remember, hey, we just had all time highs for back to back days. And all four major indexes, that is what matters.
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The markets are a discounting mechanism. They are what matters most. And they’re, they’re telling you hey, you Know what? All these all time highs, how many? 35 all time highs this year. They’re telling us, right, right to our face. They’re screaming at us. The markets are screaming at us. Hey, the economy is really picking up steam. And so that’s what’s happening here.
And that’s why new highs, we get new highs because there’s a reason that these highs are happening. A lot of times when I say this, I see it on Twitter a lot. People go, man, Kip, you’re old enough to know better. Don’t you just know this is just an all because of money printing operation. That’s all. It’s just inflationary assets and they’re going up because. Because the money printer is going burr. Well, they’re not wrong to a degree, but what they’re really trying to say is being an investor doesn’t matter.
It’s all going to be inflated away anyway. And look, I say to that point, because I hear it a lot, I say to that, to the point, I say this, let’s assume you’re right. Let’s assume that inflation is going to continue to cause the money printer to go burr and that it will cause assets to rise in price. Well, if that’s the case and if our view is correct, that this year we’re going to see at least 30% gains in the SPF. How to worth about 10% leverage it now, 32 gains SB 500 maybe 40% plus in NASDAQ, 35% plus and in Russ 2000. These are our estimates and they had been for the beginning of the year. Then if inflation is going to, is going to eat away at my, my cash reserves or my investments or my, you know, whatever kind of asset class you want to, you want to compare it to, you know what, I need to make as much money as possible to beat that real inflation range of 5, 6, 7%, whatever it really is a year. Because I don’t think any of us really believe this government data anyway at 3.3% like we’ve got today, even under a Trump administration.
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This is a lie. We all know things are the prices are rising for the things we have to consume, that prices are rising faster than this. So yeah, your ultimate goal then has to be to invest for the highest return possible. Recognizing that inflation is real. That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t be investing. And so I think, you know, that seems to me to be a common sense point. But I will tell you, when I’ve replied to people that are like, it’s just the money printer. They’re like, well, okay, I guess you’re right.
I guess you’re right, Kip. That makes a little bit of sense. And it makes a lot of sense, does it not? And that’s why we do what we do. That’s why it’s our goal to crush Mr. Market. We’re not here to tie the market. We don’t want to get within a few points of beating the market. We want to crush the market, and we want to do it significantly.
And thankfully, that’s what we’ve been able to do for a long time. And I think a lot of you know the reason for that. We are super competitive. And, you know, Tyler and Sam are younger than me and Josh and Danielle, but I never, always hate to leave somebody out. We’ve also got about 10 people that are on our payroll that are, you know, not technically employees here, but they’re consultants. They’re with us. They’re, like I say, they’re on the payroll every month. So they.
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They ought to be considered to be employees. But I hate to leave anybody out, but we are all competitive. You know, entrepreneurs are just built this way, are we not? Right? And again, you don’t be an entrepreneur. I think. I think we all are, right, because we’re all selling ourselves. Even we’re working at a job. We are clearly marketing ourselves because that’s how we get promotions, it’s how we get raises, et cetera. So we’re all entrepreneurs, certainly in America, right? The land of free market capitalism.
We all are. But look, that’s. That’s the key here. And it’s. It’s to put ourselves in a position that we crush Mr. Market, because I promise you this, Mr. Market wants to do exactly that test. Mr.
Market loves to crush us. And that’s why, by the way, whenever you see the majority on one side of an issue, like economists are today, but when you ever see the majority, if everybody’s bullish, I want out. If everybody’s bearish, I want in. And same thing with these economists. As my mentor Ted Parsons told me in 1986, give or take, at some point in 86, my first mentor, Ted Parsons, taught me the very important principle of being a contrarian. And like today, It’s. It’s. Approximately 90% of economists believe that inflation will continue to be a drag in the economy, that inflation will continue to rise, that interest rates therefore will continue to rise.
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And folks, as Ted taught me, whenever you get 80, 90% of economists on one side of an issue, take the other side of that issue and do it all the time. How many times have we seen this? Remember a few years ago it was 100% of economists said that we were going to have a recession. What was that? 2021 I think. And, and the money printer just gone crazy from the plandemic. And what do we saw? We saw one of the best years we’d ever had, you know, and the economists were so dead wrong. But they have no shame. They really do have no shame. They continue to show up for interviews, they continue to put out their white papers because again, groupthink, right? That’s what it is.
All of these economists are all in the same clique and it’s groupthink. And that way they’re safe. Because if they’re wrong, oh, we all got it wrong. You know I said that yesterday. No, that’s not, no, we all didn’t get it wrong. But anyway, so the core PCE data was, was actually came in better than expected. Bloomberg didn’t like reporting that. They just wanted to report oh, inflation, we’ve got inflation again.
Fear sales. I get all that, but it’s still a lie because the markets are telling us. And this is one of our favorite themes. If you’re with us here at the vra, you probably know what I’m about to say. One of our primary investment themes right now is we are heavy, heavy, heavy in interest rate sensitive names. Now that’s a broad group and it just happens to be our favorite groups of being honestly. Anyway, it includes tech, semi tech, extraordinarily interest rate sensitive, small caps. Absolutely.
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Gold silver miners, Big time housing. Of course, big time, right. That’s a group that’s lagged. Housing is going to get legs and when it happens you’re going to see a parabolic move higher. We’re starting to see a little better news in the housing market. And again, it’s all just because of interest rates. It’s all because interest rates are way too high. They shouldn’t be this high.
But again, and also Bitcoin, Tao or other favorite crypto when rates really begin to plummet and that is going to happen, that remains our call. It’s a high confidence call. And we’re seeing it now, are we not? Again, the media doesn’t want to report this, that all of a sudden now interest rates aren’t the story. But just a few days ago when the 10 year was knocking on the door, 4.7%, that was just. What is that 1 basis point away or 5 basis. We got 5 basis points away 5 bips away from the year, from the high of last year when Trump was inaugurated. 4.8%. We got close to it.
They’re all hawking about it, squawking about it here. Here we go, here comes a breakout now. What’s happening? Rates are plummeting. We’re down to 4.45% now. Finished just off the lows of the day. Rates are going in the right direction, oils going the right direction. And again, that’s the, I think that’s such an easy thing to see. Oil prices are going lower today.
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We finished it below 89, 88, 78 and of course futures are in the 79 range. Right. So the, the markets know what’s coming. I believe interest rate sensitive names are going to flourish from here and I believe we’re positioned exactly right. It’s been a bit of a slog here because again, the war happened. I, I didn’t see that happening, frankly. Even though we saw the carriers out there, I, I didn’t think Trump was going to pull the trigger. I really believed that he was just putting maximum pressure on the Iranians and of course I was wrong about that.
But I will say this. Four weeks ago we told you the war was over for all intents and purposes and that that’s, that’s how we were going to be positioned and invested because Trump had made the pivot and clearly he made that pivot. But bottom line is we’ve had about a, a two month period here where interest rate sensitive names have not performed well. Not, they’ve actually gone up. I mean they actually have many of these, but now they’re really starting to, to, to, to, to, to catch a wind at their backs. And I think that’s what’s going to really pick up speed from here. I think it’s going to really get a surprise a lot of people and most, most. Again, everyone’s looking for higher rates, higher inflation.
Of course they’re going to be surprised when rates continue to fall. And again, Kevin Warsham board is going to be a big help for this as well as they is a rebuild the Federal Reserve and make some major changes in the way they’ve collected data, the way they communicate that data and the way they just have to be right in our face every day telling us how bad things are, how good they are, even then when they’re horrible at their jobs. What else? Today, as my good friend Ryan, Ryan, uh, I’ll just say he’s out of Tennessee, manages like a half a billion dollars for a Major Wall street firm. And he’s with us every day here. Ryan, he also, by the way, has really good instincts and when he moves, he moves aggressively. He’s been telling me. And by the way, we’ve been having this conversation, but Ryan’s really been pounding the table on this about what’s happening with software stocks. You know, igv, the, the software.
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Take a look at the chart of igv. This is a beautiful looking chart that looks like it’s trying to go parabolic. And Ryan’s favorite name in that is Palantir. And we don’t. We owned it here a couple years ago, maybe three years ago, had a good trade out of it. We sold it way too soon. I’m not a big fan of defense stocks. That’s frankly why we sold.
But Ryan, great call, up 8% today on Palantir. And again, Ryan’s heavy in the software stocks. The reason that matters today, besides had an opportunity to give a shout out to a good friend of mine. The reason that matters today is that, remember it was only a couple of months ago that everybody said software stocks were the indicator that things were falling apart. AI was killing software. Now, do you hear that anymore? It’s out there a little bit. But look at the charts. Look at these stocks and what they’re doing.
This, what this is, folks, is direct evidence of something we’ve been talking about, you hear now for four years. This is direct evidence of a, of textbook bull market action. Rotational themes where one group gets hot, another group gets cold. Of course, the only group that gets most of the attention is the one that gets really cold because according to, you know, all the media, it’s a tell. They’re telling you the market’s going to catch up with that group on the downside. And that’s not happening. It’s not happening at all. What’s happening instead is money is leaving one group rotating into another.
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But the key is it ain’t leaving the market, it’s staying in the market. That’s why it’s textbook rotational bull market action. And that’s what we’re continuing to see now. And now that software stocks are getting hot. Right. Let me ask you a question. What is the cold area? What’s not running? I know someone’s could jump out and say Tesla, because it’s been, again, it’s been consolidating. It’s been a five year consolidation.
I get it. Given us chance to buy a lot of cheap stock though. And by the way, Tesla is up 32%. In the last 40 days. So it’s not like it hadn’t done anything recently. But again, it’s been a five year consolidation pattern that is ready to go folks. When this breaks out it’s going to be just like the 2015-2025 year consolidation pattern when Tesla jumps 700% in the next year. Now I’m not predicting that at this level for Tesla, but I do think we’ve got a momentous breakout coming here.
Hopefully just prior to the merger with SpaceX. Again, my jury’s out on that. For me I think it’s probably going to happen. I really don’t want to see it happen. But this gives Musk a chance to consolidate all his power under the SpaceX brand. Who knows what the new name of the company will be because again that’s his, he’s got the voting block there and he wants, he wants his power consolidated under SpaceX for that reason. But you know, I think regardless we’re gonna, we’re gonna own two amazing companies here at some point, probably within the next year I would think, I think about within that time frame is when that merger, buyout, merger is going to take place. If it doesn’t, I think Tesla is going to go to, you know, by itself $1,000 by year end.
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That’s still our call. 2500 by, by 2828. I hope we get to see that. Without the merger, who knows, it might even go higher. And of course our long term target, decade long for the next decade is $10,000 a share for Tesla. And again I do hope we’ve been in the stock a long time. Very loyal. I’m a loyal person on my second Tesla now.
Model S, what, what a car. Stop making it. By the way, I hear from you all the time. I just heard from Brian, Brian T. By the way, I’ve replied your email, looking forward to having a call with you to go over some of your questions. But Brian also bought a Model sd. Bought, bought a Model S. Mark bought a Model Model S and then several Model Y’s.
I think you know you’re telling me it’s from our conversation so I think it’s pretty cool. Hard to believe anyone listen to me about it. I’m not actually. I’ve got a 66 Mustang, I’ve got a 2005 Hummer and now I’ve got a 20, 25 Model S. But I guess I do know a bit about cars. I just know this car is unbelievable. If you haven’t test driven, do yourself a favor. You can’t buy it.
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You can buy a model that’s used of course, but it doesn’t matter what you go test drive this weekend or whenever you have time, go test drive a Tesla and have them show you how to engage FSD full self driving and just go experience it for yourself. I mean we rarely drive anymore. I still love driving, so that’s not quite true. Like if we’re going somewhere that’s a few miles away, I always drive right. Because I love driving this car. It’s so responsive. The velocity, speed is, is just. There’s almost nothing like it on the road.
But it’s the FSD for making long trips that is a game changer. It makes long trips actually fun. And again before long, and it won’t be long, I really do believe within the next two to three months. I think it’s going to happen that soon in the state of Texas that we’re going to have fully autonomous driving coming. Certainly with the robotaxis that’s coming and I think the stock goes ballistic on that. Right. Golf topic a little bit here, but love talking about Tesla. Close today up slightly, up a couple bucks this year at 442.
Phenomenal buy here. What else today? Oh, I’ll finish my SpaceX thought so. The, our theme over the last couple three days has been that we are in a melt up phase. Now look, it’s been an eight week melt up, has it not? But I’m talking about a true melted face. Like I think that we’re going to see this market go parabolic for a couple weeks, I really do. And I think that is because of the SpaceX IPO. Folks, this is a big deal. It’s the biggest IPO in history and it’s Elon Musk and it’s space and Mars.
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I mean it’s just. How can you not love this kind of a story? That’s part of the reason I think a merger for the two would be good certainly long term. So yeah, if I’m thinking 20 years out, I like the merger. If I’m thinking three years out, I don’t want it. That’s just how I, that’s how I see it. I want to see what Tesla can do on its own for the next two, three years. Optimus, fully autonomous transportation, the semis that are autonomous as well. But I think this market’s going to melt up into the June 12th IPO.
That might be a buy the rumor sell the news event, you know, because if I’m right about the kind of Move higher. We’re going to see like a lot of days like today, you know, NASDAQ up 9, 10% I think, you know, again finished high across the board. I really believe that as we closer to SpaceX IPO, you’re going to see this move pick up speed. I think this is going to be historically one of the all time great moves. And everybody, when I say that, like I said on Twitter, everybody says so is that where you’re going to be taking profits? Is that going to be the top? Absolutely not. I think we’re in the middle of one of the first true melt up moves higher that we’re going to have over the next many years. I don’t think. I think 99 of the people have are nowhere close to being prepared for what this bull market represents and what it’s going to do.
I’ve been saying for four years this is the most bullish I’ve been in my career. Yep. Even when Biden was present because the fundamentals backed up. Everything we saw when we wrote the big bribe we spent a year researching. It was just blew us away. You know, liquidity. And then once Trump got elected, you know, again, housing, of course we cover this often with you here. The housing market has structurally never been more sound, never been close to being the sound.
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But then Trump got elected and that became our big three at that point. Right? Our big three. The Trump economic miracle, interface revolution and this ocean liquidity, this has never existed before. There’s never been a setup like.com is child’s play compared to this. In 10 years we’ll look back and think that.com was like owning a boring mutual fund. That’s how explosive this bull market’s going to be. Now that probably means we’re going to have some shakeouts as well because you get a little too much greed in the market. That’s what happens.
We’ll cross that bridge at a later time. Bottom line is we are folks, we are. All the people saying we’re in a bubble are absolutely clueless. You can’t be in a bubble when NASDAQ is only up 142% from the bear market lows of October 13, 2022 when.com Nasdaq rose 572%. We’re not even there. And then when you look at the percent of stocks above the 50 day and the 200 day moving average, I’ll share this tomorrow, but we’re like 50, 60% above the 50 and 200 day for the S P 500, you know, we won’t even think about taking profits till we get to 88, 89, 90%, maybe 91, 92. And so we are just light years away from having any kind of a bubble or frankly a major sell event. And so again, that, that’s been our view.
It’s going to continue to be our view. And it doesn’t mean we won’t do some trading in our leverage ETF program because that’s what it’s designed for, frankly. The three positions, we have three right, Small caps, housing, ball caps, housing, oh, gold miners. I think Those are our three right now position we have in leveraged ETFs. And those are so far, so far from being overbought. They’re just now beginning to pick up speed again. Those are each interest rate sensitive leveraged ETFs again that we, we, if we talk about it, that’s how we’re positioned with our own money as well. And so we’re just light years away from taking profits pretty much on anything.
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And I think that people aren’t prepared. I think again, I think the next two weeks are going to be explosive to the upside and it’s going to be memorable. Like people are going to look back and go, did that just happen? Right. So anyway, we’ll see. Hey, if I’m wrong, I, I’m wrong. But you know me, I like saying what I think and what’s on my mind. I have a problem with people that equivocate. I have a real problem with people like Ed Yardini.
I like Gardini’s work, by the way. His economic work is good. He actually has stopped doing this. I think he’s getting feedback from other people inside besides just me because he says, oh, we have a 30% chance to happen, 50 chance this will happen, 20% chance this will happen like dead. That means you can take. And that’s what he does. He takes credit when either one of those percentages plays out. An idiot could do that.
And so I think he sets a pushback. I haven’t seen as much of that recently and I hope that is the case because it really, it makes his work look lesser than it is because he does very good economic work. By the way, his piece today, Ed Yardenium talked about a long term, excellent economist. His piece today, which I just skimmed through like an hour ago when it came out, is about gold. And I think he’s, I think his gold target end of year is 5,500. We’re, you know, we’re at 4,526 now. So that’s. What is that, 20% or so from here? Higher.
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I think that’s on the low side. I think the second half of this year is going to bring an explosive move higher, I think 6,000 by year end for gold. His long term target, by the way, is 10,000 hours is 15. So we’re fairly close there. We, he thinks to get there in a decade, we, we think we get there at 20, 30. Right. So again, interest rate sensitive. And again, we talked about this yesterday, did we not? Thank you to Rocky, who hit me up on Twitter today.
Rocky listens every day. Love you, man. Thank you for that. It’s just awesome that we have so many loyal listeners here even if you can’t listen every day. Thank you for. If you give me once a week. We appreciate that. Tyler and I both do.
Tyler, by the way, is in Cabo for a few days now for a friend’s wedding. And so I’ll be man in the fort. Me, Sam and Josh holding down the foot and Danielle and Cindy holding down the fort here until Tyler gets back. I asked him to extend his stay because Tyler just never takes time off. He just doesn’t. So I meant, you know what, you’re already in Cabo. He’d never been. I said go ahead and extend your stay.
[00:27:14]:
You know, get some sun, enjoy the beach. He’s single, maybe meet a girl. Neither one of our boys, you know, are married, so. So it means we don’t have grandkids. So we have to, you know, make dogs our grandkids and that’s fine. It’s a little empty. You find yourself talking to your dog too often. I get a little concerned about myself.
If you’re a dog owner, I know you know exactly what I’m talking about. But they are kids, right? But it’d be nice to have real grandkids. And I’m sure that’s going to come when it’s supposed to. I know it will. But anyway, so Tyler’s going to enjoy himself, come back with a tan here. Hopefully. Hopefully early. Early to mid next week.
But yesterday, getting back to Rocky. Yeah, Rocky, this is what we talked about yesterday. We talked about the way the gold, gold, silver and miners got smashed yesterday after on Tuesday. First of all, they’re up. Markets were closed on Monday, but gold and silver up big. Then the miners on Tuesday were up 4%. GDX up 4%. I think GDXJ, the Junico minority, tip up even more.
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And then yesterday they gave back like 60, 70% of those gains. It was kind of a brutal day yesterday and I was like that just makes no sense to me. That’s algorithmic trading that were believing that all their own hype that the inflation data today was going to be hot and the group might get smoked. Folks, when you see moves that don’t make a lot of sense like that, that’s the algorithms. They’re almost all. Many of these are set up, structured in the same fashion, looking at the same data, believing the same outcomes. Again it’s group thing for algorithms. I mean that is a real thing.
And so when they move they can do real damage. But the key is those are short term countertrend moves and for a long term primary trend investor we take advantage of that. I told you yesterday that just added to each of our gold miner positions and we did that yesterday. Today a good recovery move again this morning on the inflation data. GDX opened up down over 2%. Finished up over so good up over 2%. 4%, 4% swing today. Now the week is getting back on track and I think again I think that the move higher from here is going to be dramatic.
The miners are a lot like small caps and again a lot of these are small caps. They tend to move in aggressive and almost parabolic spurts. And I think that’s exactly what’s happening here. And again in the broader, you know, a concept what we’re talking about with, with our melt up theme in the next couple weeks, I really think that you’re going to see it even more explosive move higher in small caps and in gold miners. We’re aggressively long this group and I think you’re going to see a really fun move here and it’ll last beyond the next two weeks. Again, I think this move, I think we’ve had our shakeout in this group. The war brought it right? Higher oil, higher rates. That’s a kiss of death for gold, silver and miners.
[00:30:13]:
Right. And so I think that’s all behind us now. I think the rest of this year is going to be melt upville for this group. We have about 40% of our portfolio in this group. So yeah, we, we’re, we’re, we’re, we’re hoping it’s not the trees for the forest, but that is, that is what we’re looking to see happen. And again, good move today across the whole spectrum for this group. I think that will continue. All right, final point, I’ll make 10 out of 12 screens are bullish on the VR investing system.
That is we’ve been in 11 to 12. We’ve never been to 12 or 12. What would it take to get back to 11 to 12? Well, it would take rates coming down further. It would take the internals to get even better. The current internals have been good but not great of late. They’re again pretty good today and we want to see that happen. And folks, frankly, the biggie for me is housing stocks, right? I mean, we’re positioned in this group and with a leveraged etf and I’ve been wrong, not, not by a whole lot. We’re down like, what is it? We’re down like 10%, which you know what a leveraged ETF isn’t three time, you know, that’s nothing.
That’s gone in about a day. But we have been wrong on that. I don’t like wrong. That’s dead money. And in a market like this, that’s just, that’s just a bad decision. So I’ll take full blame for that because it was my call. I’m not sure Todd agree with me on it anyway, but he likes housing long term like I do. The data is just too overwhelmingly good.
[00:31:39]:
But I think again, all we need, and I’m surprised it hasn’t happened yet. We’ve had rates now and oil prices now fall for three to four straight days. Housing stocks aren’t yet going and that’s because algorithms still hate them. I’m telling you, that’s what’s holding them back. But when one of these big algorithms makes, makes a flip and they start jumping into housing stocks, it’s going to be Katy bar the door. They’re all going to move at the same time and we’re going to see an explosive move higher in housing stocks. I really got to tell you the truth, I love how we’re positioned. I think by the end of the year, I think I haven’t run the numbers frankly in the last couple of weeks.
I, I think we’re above, we’re ahead of the market at this point. But again, probably if we are, it’s just barely. We’re in that range of about 10, 11 higher for the year. I think by the end of this year because again, we’re looking for big numbers. Exactly how our position, interest rate sensitive and others. I think by the end of this year we’re looking at another, another 40 move another 40 up year for us. We’ve averaged 38 the last three years. I think this is going to be better than that.
So I think the second half of this year is going to be fantastic. I Think we’re going to have a very good year. I think we’re all going to be in very good mood. And again Tesla at a thousand by year end will, will write a lot of wrongs, will it not? All right, let’s take a look under hood today again. Internals good. Not great, right? At one and a half to one positive advanced decline NYC and NASDAQ up volume 70.2% in, in a NASDAQ that’s good. 58.2% NASDAQ. And today again we had more than 330 stocks hit a 52 week high and 52 week low.
[00:33:24]:
Those, those spreads are starting to increase. That’s what you would think would happen. But again I think in two weeks right as we go into the SpaceX IPO, I think these internals are going to be on fire. Right? I’m making a lot of predictions today. So hey, if I’m wrong I’ll tell you about it. But, but I feel really it’s a high confidence call here. I think we’re ready for, for a very, very special move. Higher sector watch today.
You know, okay, five sectors higher, six lower. No damage done anywhere. The upside, healthcare and technology both up 1 1.4% to the downside. No damage done whatsoever. Utilities were the leader to the downside. Why is that? Raise her down again. Sometimes it doesn’t make sense. Utilities are the largest borrowers are cap top capital in the country.
They follow rates very closely for that reason. Today down 1.1% watch tomorrow they’ll be up 2%. That’s really it. No, no damage done whatsoever to the, to the internals here in sector watch. And our commodity watch today. Kind of covered it earlier, did we not? But basically gold today up 45 bucks. Announced 45. 27 of 1%.
[00:34:38]:
Silver up 1.3%. 7592 I think silver is going to catch real fire here. Copper up at 1.3%. 6.42 same with copper. Crude oil today again now below $89 a barrel. 88.66 last trade. And finally the day bitcoin. What have I done with bitcoin? One second here.
You know I want to spend a minute on bitcoin today. I kind of mentioned this yesterday. Bitcoin last 73,006, 65 don’t like seeing that at all. Down 2% in the last 24 hours. It is surprising to me so many good things are happening from the demand side of the equation. Right. Brokerage firms now starting to allow Vanguard starting to allow Morgan Stanley starting to allow cryptocurrency purchases. Right.
And the same thing is happening internationally. So this, from that point of view, this move concerns me. Bitcoin should not be going down right now. I’m not going to lie to you. This concerns me. The fact that the market’s going up, the semis continue to go up. That that means I’m not concerned about the market. I don’t like bitcoin act like this but I do believe, I do believe this is going to be a short term situation because you got to remember bitcoin led the way out of the matter of fact the night the war started.
[00:35:58]:
Bitcoin bottom at 597 right there, right. It, it led higher. First in, first out. That’s been one of our themes. I think, I think something’s going to happen. Maybe it’s this Clarity Act. I believe that’s name that’s got to be passed here. Maybe that’s going to be delayed.
I don’t know. Maybe the whole thing with the John Cornyn and the fact that Trump pissed off so many Republican senators, Ted Cruz included, maybe they’re, they’re, they’re using that as a tit for tat. I don’t know. That’s just conjecture. I’ll spend more time on tonight. I don’t like the fact bitcoin is, Tao is actually outperforming bitcoin but it’s also moving lower now. We’ll spend some more time on it again. I’m not concerned.
I just don’t like it and I don’t think it’s going to continue for long. And again that’s how we’re positioned as well. So certainly want that to be the case. All right folks, that’s it for the day. Hope you had a great day and even better night. We’ll see back here again tomorrow after the close. It.
In today's episode, Tyler breaks down a volatile market session shaped by geopolitical tensions, including an escalating Iranian conflict and a high-profile True Social post from Donald Trump. You’ll hear key insights on what’s happening under the surface of the markets, the resilience of the semiconductor sector despite heavy selling, and a dive into sentiment indicators that may surprise you. Tyler also shares his perspectives on the upcoming midterms, why political certainty matters to markets, and delivers an exciting update on SpaceX and its ambitious plans for Mars colonization. Plus, get the latest on sector performance, the Fear & Greed Index, and what the data means for investors looking ahead to the end of the year. Stay tuned for a well-rounded analysis and the contrarian moves shaping today’s market landscape. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.
Welcome to another episode of the VRA Investing Podcast with your host, Tyler Herriage. In today’s show, Tyler Herriage breaks down the strong start to the week for the markets, following a tough sell-off last Friday—the worst day of the year so far for the S&P 500. He discusses why there’s no need to panic, sharing historical stats that reinforce this bull market’s staying power and why short-term dips are just part of the journey. We’ll cover major headlines like Tesla’s surge on the back of big news from their newest major investor—the “Chinese Warren Buffett”—as well as what’s heating up in the IPO world with OpenAI’s recent filing. Tyler Herriage will review key index moves, sentiment readings, sector highlights, internals, and commodities including Bitcoin and notable winners like Galaxy Digital. Plus, he touches on practical investment strategies, the outlook for VRA’s favorite “10 bagger” stocks, and why now could be a generational opportunity for retail investors. Stay tuned for all the essential stats, stories, and actionable insights from today’s market action!
In today's episode, Kip breaks down a turbulent Friday in the markets, where a brutal selloff sent shockwaves through major sectors but also revealed underlying signals of opportunity. From a rare 39% spike in the VIX to sharp declines in semiconductors, gold, and bitcoin, Kip explores why volatility is the true price of admission in bull markets and why panic selling may be the biggest mistake investors can make right now. With insights on recent jobs data, upcoming IPOs, and critical market indicators, this episode is packed with the actionable analysis and contrarian perspective you need to navigate today's market chaos and prepare for the opportunities ahead. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.
In today’s episode, Tyler breaks down a record-setting day in the markets, with the Dow Jones and other major indexes hitting all-time highs. He discusses current market trends, the breadth expansion, and the rotation of this bull market, highlighting the persistent strength beyond the headline-making “Magnificent Seven” stocks. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.
Welcome back to the VRA Investing Podcast! It’s a jam-packed Wednesday as Kip Herriage returns after three days away with an in-depth market update. Today, Kip Herriage breaks down the end of the market’s nine-day winning streak, why he believes this is a "buy the dip" moment, and how the VRA System signals there’s plenty of room left in this powerful, long-lasting bull market. He covers headlines from a parabolic surge in semiconductors and AI stocks, to the impact of global events on oil and rates, and the market’s anticipation for the SpaceX IPO. On the company front, we get updates on Tesla's breakthrough robo-taxi rollouts in Austin and promising news for Lost Soldier investors. Kip Herriage also unpacks the latest in Bitcoin volatility, gold and miners, and why retail investors may be selling the recovery short. Strap in for a fast-moving, insight-packed episode that puts the week’s major financial headlines into sharp focus!
