Welcome back to the VRA Investing Podcast with your host, Kip Herriage. On today's episode, Kip Herriage dives into the state of the markets after breaking a historic 13-day winning streak for the NASDAQ, yet highlights why bullis ...
Don’t look back because the market is closed. Good Monday afternoon, everyone. Kip Herriage here with the daily VRA Investing podcast. Hope your day was good today. Hope you had a great weekend as well. Well, we broke our streak. We had 13 straight days of gains in NASDAQ. 13 straight days of a strong, smart, strong, smart money hour.
They actually got that again today, by the way. But we did close slightly lower today. I gotta tell you, one of the things we’ll talk about in this podcast is the negativity that we saw over the weekend. Okay, here we go. The war with Iran’s back on. Oh, my God. We bombed one of their ships. Oh, my God.
Trump’s talking about doing away with the ceasefire. It’s not going to be continued. You know, it’s just the. There are people. I think it’s. I think frankly it’s a lot of, you know, never Trumpers, but there are a lot of people that just want this market to go lower. And that’s not the sign of a top. This is the sign of a market that wants to keep going higher.
So, yeah, guess what? We have hit extreme overbought levels in the very system. I’ll cover that more in a moment because we’re there. Matter of fact, we’re knocking on the door of extreme overbought on steroids. That’s our most overbought reading. I’ll tell you what that means in just a moment. What else today? Good data here. Got some good data going to share with you today about why this market is going to keep going higher, including a fact that a lot of you have probably seen has been making the rounds over the last day or so. And it’s an old piece of data, but it’s really remarkable that if you back test every, almost every investment formula and find the highest one, matter of fact, I think it’s the highest one is buying at all time highs.
If you bought at an all time high over the next year, you’d outperform almost every other investment strategy out there, using all the data and analytics, et cetera. It is remarkable. So for those of you that are worried about this market having come too far too fast, that right there is a head turner. Tyler was just telling me, when he shares that with people in his meetings and when he’s doing events, when he shares that piece of data, he says it’s like a light bulb moment. People are like, so it doesn’t matter that we just closed at all time highs? No, it doesn’t. It means you should add to Your positions most likely, you know, also talk today about primary trends. I wrote this up this morning and you know we’re, we’re here at the vra, we’re trend followers. And when you’re a trend follower it means you’re not guessing about which way the market’s going to go.
The market’s telling you what it wants to do by what it’s doing and then it wants to continue doing it. These trends, you in the market you have, you know, again you have your short term trends that take place, your, your, your short term reversals and then your primary trend. So we’re back in primary trend mode now and all of the, the trends. I’ll cover this more in a moment, but I think it’s an important piece of data to look at on the primary trends that we think are the most important. Again, the war this weekend, I think it’s just really interesting today. This market again, futures opened last night at 5:00 and Dow Jones futures were down 450. Nasdaq down I think it was 2:52.75. And I saw a lot of squawking online.
[00:03:21]:
Here we go. You know, I love to put out a piece about never settle on a Monday and that we know we now we as we’ve been telling you we’re in the train has left the station. We’ve been telling you that here for some time now. And now we’re in. What’s the other one? I’m sorry, my mind is everywhere today. Oh, we’re basically in melt up mode which, which other, other people can call fomo. Fear of missing out. I shared that in some letters last week.
I know some of you hadn’t heard that before. Yeah, fomo Fear of missing out. And I had some people reply to me last night on Twitter going well it didn’t last very long, did it Kip? Yep. No, it did and it’s going to continue to last. Again this market is just getting started. This is a going to be a runaway freight trainer of market. We said when the year started, you’ve been with us, you know, this is the truth. And again we like to hold, hold ourselves accountable to our calls, good, bad and indifferent.
Well, one of the calls that we made at the beginning of the year, matter of fact it was in our first two or three letters of the the new year was that this was going to be a record setting year, that SPF 100 was going to finish over 30%. Nasdaq possibly over 40, maybe even 50%. So as I wrote this morning. No, we’re not. That still remains our call. We’re not backing away from it because we’ve yet to get to, we’ve yet to get to the, the dot com mania phase. We’ve yet to see any signs that that started right. It is.
Remember, Doc Tyler loves to share this statduring.com. you know, Nasdaq jumped 575%, five year record. Of course it’s never happened before, hasn’t happened since then. But right now Nasdaq is up like 100 and 130%. So again, this is just got to really want to stress this point. It’s a generational bull market that’s still just getting started. I really think we’re still in about the first, maybe the top of the second inning, but that’s how early this is. It’s all based on fundamentals.
[00:05:25]:
That’s the thing. It’s a structural market. Structural bull market’s the most powerful kind because it’s based in the fundamentals. You take a look at what’s happening with the transports going parabolic. What does that tell you? That tells you, guess what? Housing stocks are next. These two move hand in hand. They are one and two. We think housing is number one actually and the training is number two.
But these are the most, two most important sectors of the US economy when it comes to the economic side of it. And it’s not a close second. The trainers are going now housing homes, excuse me, housing stocks are beginning to get hot, but they still have forever to go. And then we have to get to the IPO stage again. We think that’s coming, right. We got a lot of big IPOs on tap for this year, including SpaceX and a lot more. But again, they’ve yet to even start. Remember during.com we had hundreds, hundreds, plural of IPOs that went up more than 100% on day one.
Something like 140, 150 IPOs that went up more than 500 100% on day one. And we’ve yet to get into that kind of a mania. We’re not even scratching the surface yet. So the, whether you want to call it the AI trade or as we prefer to call it, the innovation revolution, because there’s about so much more than just AI. We haven’t got to the new inventions yet. This is I think for me the most exciting part of it because we have new inventions coming. This, I mean, I don’t, I don’t, I, I have an idea what some of them are going to, going to be, you know, as we wrote in the big bribe four years ago, now within 20 years there won’t be diseases. There won’t be, there’ll still be, you know, illnesses and still be people getting sick, don’t get me wrong.
But there won’t be any diseases. The cure for all of these will have been found. The average means the average life expectancy for the average American is going to be what, 120. That’s, that’s happening in our lifetime. And so that’s, but again that’s just scratching the surface of where this market’s heading. Where, where our reality more importantly is heading. And that’s why you’ve heard us say now for, again for four years. There’s never been a better time to be an optimist.
There’s certainly in our view never been a better time to be an American. Because this is where it’s all happening, folks. We’ve got economic moats all this around us as a country. Right. In so many different areas they’re going to power that mean there is, there is no second. It’s America number one. Everything else is a distant second. And it’s just a great time to be an investor and certainly to be an investor in American made companies.
American built companies. Yeah, again. So we broke the 13 day streak in NASDAQ, broke the 13 day streak in the semis being higher by the way. The semis clawed back. The semis tried, I mean you got to give them credit for trying to close down 2/10 of a percent again trying for 14 days in a row. But still the, the final hour trading was solid. Was, we still had a good, a solid smart money hour trading as we, as we rally back into the close again, just minor losses today. Dow Jones down four points.
Nasdaq down 64. That’s two tenths of a percent. SB 500 also down 210 of a percent. But our leader and again this is a call that we made at the beginning of the year. In addition to the semis we, we said that these, that small caps, small caps would be a leader for this year. Small caps are up more than any other major index of the, of the major four small caps are up more than them today. Small caps up another six tenths of a percent today. We think that run continues.
[00:08:56]:
But again to be very clear, we are hitting, we are hitting extreme overbought on steroids. We’re just knocking on the door now. If you’re a new investor, if you’re new to us and you go that sounds A little scary. What happens next? Well, what happens next is markets that get this overbought tend to keep going higher. But at the same time you have to. There’s a realization here formed in discipline that this is a bit of a scary time to put new money to work just because this is when shakeouts happen. This is when bad things tend to happen again. We’re not there quite yet.
We’re knocking on the door. But I think if we get it, the rest of this week is up. I expect that it will be again. We’ve got Q1 earnings now really starting to pick up. Tesla’s on Wednesday. Next week is a big week for all of the biggest tech companies and the markets just aren’t ready for this. Again. We continue to forecast, again our forecast from the beginning of the year that corporate earnings will be up 18% this year.
I think Wall street still, what now, they keep upgrading. I think they’re what, 13% for the full year again. So we’re, we’re, we’re well above that. And we also continue to forecast the GDP growth with 5% in the quarter we’re in, in this quarter. You again look at the trannies, look at what’s happening in the United States and manufacturing. You see that underlying foundational strength that’s taking place in America and this is all happening as we’re at war. It really is, it really is something else. Right.
When bullets fly, stocks were by that didn’t quite happen this way but when missiles started flying it kind of did. You know, when it got hot and heavy. The bottom, bottom’s been in place now for three weeks. We called that three weeks ago Friday and again we just got too bearish. Fear and green deck. Remember the fear and greedy 9 the percentage of stocks sold short by major institutions, CTAs, hedge funds, et cetera, hit their second highest level just behind the tariff mania lows. And honestly you know, know still a ways away from the pandemic lows but, but again still right there almost in second place with the, with the, with the tariff low. So again this has been a great comeback for our markets.
It’s a sign of some real foundational strength and even if we are going to have a bit of a shakeout, I’ll just repeat it again. Dips will be a buying opportunity and they will be for some time. This is going to be exceptional year. You’ve got a lot of people right now very, very concerned, very afraid, not just from the war, but here come the midterms. Here come the what’s if Republicans lose, what’s going to happen, folks? I don’t, I don’t think anything’s going to happen. Number one, I’m not convinced that Republicans are going to lose. I’m still somewhat optimistic about the Save America act being passed. But if they can, if the Supreme Court rules in favor of what I would say is constitutionalist that believe that voting must happen on the day results must be in on the day, that’s really going to limit a lot of the cheating that’s been taking place here.
[00:12:00]:
So you know, we’ll hope for the SAVE Act, Save America act to be passed, but at least for the, for the Supreme Court to rule correctly on this with voting so that you can’t go weeks upon weeks with voting still coming in, meaning cheating still being allowed. What else here? Okay, let’s go, let’s talk about these primary trends because again this has been a theme of ours for the entire year and it does continue to play out. I think it’s significant primary trend versus counter trend from the really the day that Trump was elected. This is, we really started writing then but when he was inaugurated we started putting out our pieces that we had three primary trends that the US Dollar would be lower, that rates would be lower and that the markets would be higher. Those are the three I would say most people would say if you’re looking at primary trends for the stock market, these three would be, would be the most important. Again US Dollar. Look at the chart again. I shared it this morning.
Our letter dollar has fallen. What is this 13% from Trump’s inauguration. We did have a counter trend move higher that came kicked in during, as the war started. That’s now over with. All right. The dollar’s now back below the 200 day we believe head headed significantly lower. This is what Trump wants. Yes, you can, you can say, Trump can say that the US Dollar will maintain its, its role as a sovereign, you know, world’s reserve currency.
That’s going to continue to be the case. We’ve gone to wars over that. We would again by the way. That’s something the US can never allow to be taken away but at the same time want our dollar to be lower versus other foreign currencies just because they’ve been cheating like hell for decades. Right. This free trade agreements really made that help make that possible. Well, those days are over. Now look at the chart of the dollar over the last year and a half and you’ll, you’ll see what I’m talking about.
[00:13:53]:
That’s number one. We expect the dollar to continue lower. That’s very bullish for US multinationals, meaning our largest companies. Every Fortune 500 company, every S&P 500 company is a multinational. So our largest companies benefit most from it. But it certainly filters down as well because it’s very bullish for the US Economy. It’s also extremely bullish for our positions in gold, silver and I think especially gold miners. That’s where the leverage is.
That’s where we’ve done incredibly well over the last couple of years. And I want to want you to hear me on this, this bull market in gold miners, silver too, but we’re primarily gold bugs here, if I’m being honest about it. We love silver as well, but we know the gold miners better. They’re larger companies by and large. They tend to have, I believe, more transparency. I don’t trust some of the data coming out of silver miners. Maybe it’s another topic for another conversation, for another show. But for these gold miners, this bull market is so, so early.
This is not going to be a traditional three four year bull markets in this group last about three to four years. That’s, that’s, that’s about where they fall. Our forecast, this bull market is going to last much longer. We see gold hitting $15,000 announced by the end of the decade 20, 2030. We see silver hitting breaking $300 an ounce also by 2030. And that means these gold miners are down. They’re all 10 baggers from here, especially the ones that we follow and have a buyer recommendation on. So 10 baggers plus because these, the ones that we own will eventually be bought out.
That, that is what’s going to happen here. And I think it’s going to be in a multiple, well surpassing 10, 10 times higher from here. The, the second primary trend is again with interest rates. Another big call of hours at the beginning at Trump’s Auger inauguration. We begin writing and saying that rates would, would plummet from here. And, and really, I mean they are sharply lower. When Trump got inaugurated, the 10 year was 4.8%. Today the 10 year closed at a four point, excuse me, 4.25%.
[00:15:56]:
So they’re down sharply. But this is the beginning of the move lower tomorrow and this is going to be very highly watched. We’re going to get the first, the beginning of the Senate hearings with the new Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh. And look, I’ve talked about this topic a lot. We happen to have one person, a Republican no less, that has power over these things with his role in the Senate Banking Committee. That says Thom Tillis who says he’s not going to allow. The affirmation of Kevin Warsh to go through and for him to be finally confirmed until this lawsuit is put to rest against Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve. Now maybe there’s been progress made there.
It certainly didn’t slow down the hearings. They start tomorrow. Gonna be very interested watching this. I, I actually predict that there’ll be more questions about that to Kevin Warsh about what’s gonna happen at the Fed with this lawsuit. I think we get more questions about that than he will about himself and his own Fed policy. But I can promise you this, this is my opinion. This guy would not have been nominated by Trump and approved by Besant unless he was very clear with the President and Treasury Secretary that he was going to Secretary treasury, that he was going to bring rates down sharply. So I, we still believe that’s what’s going to happen.
Our call by year end is that the 10 year will be at three and a half percent or lower and that 30 year mortgages will be below 5%. Which is one of the reasons we’re pounding the table on housing stocks is if you notice here, you know that we’ve been doing that and we continue to add to our positions here. But again, lower rates, bullish. For every sector of the US Economy, rates should not be this high to begin with. They are moving lower, moving in the right direction. But again the primary trend in rates has now kicked back in and, and we look for rates to continue moving sharply lower. And the fine final primary trend again is the trannies. Look at the chart going parabolic.
This does not happen in a vacuum. It doesn’t happen without the US Economy really starting to catch fire. For us that means manufacturing things, goods are being moved to because of, because of manufacturing. This country is back. But again, this is early, early innings. We’re not even the top of the first inning is just kicked off here for manufacturing. And again we can thank Trump’s tariff policies for this and for the one big beautiful bill. And finally, of course is the market against not a new call for us.
[00:18:39]:
Our view now since Trump is inaugurated is that really tacking on to our bullish views from even the Biden administration that this bull market is just getting started again. Our goal, our target for four years has been since at 2030, when we get there, the Dow Jones will be at 100,000, Nasdaq will be at 40,000. What does that mean? It basically means we got to get a Double from here. All right, the Dow Jones is at 49,400 now. Nasdaq’s at 24 4. So basically a double. Nasdaq less than a double. We I actually think these numbers will be on the low side.
And again, it’s not like the bull market is going to end in 2030. It’s not. This bull market is going to continue well into the2030s. This is that bull market. And we believe that’s how, how you should be positioned because it’s how we are with our own money. What else today? All right, let’s. And again, Tesla earnings on Wednesday. We’ll be following that closely.
Stock was down today, down 2% today. I was kind of surprised by that. We opened up pretty solidly today. The high today for Tesla was a 406. I thought it was really going to take off. Still feel it’s going to be a great week. If you follow the news, you know what happened over the weekend. Robotaxis now are not only just in Austin and in the Bay Area, they’re now so all now so all now also in Houston and Dallas.
Just a small number, just a couple of three unsupervised robotaxis in each market. But this is the way it happens, right? Slowly and then all at once keep buying. This stock is our number one stock to own for the innovation revolution. All right, let’s take a look under the hood today about what you’d expect after a big rally. And slightly lower today. Internals actually were really solid. More, actually more solid than you would think. Almost dead even on advanced decline both for NYSE and nasdaq.
[00:20:34]:
NYSE was positive by a couple hundred issues. NASDAQ was lower by exactly 50 issues. So actually pretty strong numbers here today. Volume today slightly higher for NASDAQ and 1.3 to 1 higher in NYSE. And this is the. Actually there was a late update on this. Let me give you the final read here. Yeah, we had, this is actually a pretty big number, folks.
426 stocks hit a new 52 week high to just 81, hitting a new 52 week low. I saw some people, some bears over the weekend pointing out the lack of new companies hitting all time highs on Friday even as we had an all time high. I’m like, just wait till Monday and you’ll see that refresh. And of course that’s what’s happened here. So again, very good internals again, we’ve had an amazing run here. One of the best in history. One of the best in history. And we have some data on that.
I told you a minute ago, some good data. Let me, let me get this out there too. First of all, this won’t be all that new, but I think it’s, I think it’s the most bullish piece of data that we’ve had going into the correction. We’ve been sharing this with you now for the last three, three and a half weeks in a midterm election year. It’s incredibly common, actually. Common to see a correction in the market in the first quarter. Well, we just had that. All right.
Nasdaq fell 13%. SPF 100 fell, rounding up right, at 10%. Right. So we call it, we call it a correction down 10% or more. But going back to, what is this? Back to 1950. Every time there’s a correction in a midterm election year, the next 12 months has seen the, an average gain in the S P 500 of 38%. That’s, that’s, that’s pretty good data right there. We have some more for you as well.
We just finished three weeks, three consecutive weeks where SPF 100 has been up more than 3%. That’s happened three weeks in a row. That’s only happened twice since 1950. So limited data on this, but still pretty compelling. Following the previous two events where the market was up three weeks in a row, the SP 500 over the next year was up in one 34.5% and in the other 32.4%. So again, great analytics backing this up. We’re still in, seasonally speaking, still in a very seasonally bullish time frame. Q1 earnings are coming up front.
[00:22:55]:
Running of that is still going to take place. Again, big earnings coming next week. Right. We still have massive levels of short cover need to take place from CTAs and hedge funds. And again, the front running of earnings is still going to put a consistent bid under the market. So I’ll just repeat what I wrote this morning. If you’re fighting this bull market, I wish you good luck because you’re going to need it. That’s how strong this market is and will continue to be.
Sector watch today, five sectors higher, six lower. Nothing on either side really. Communication services down 1.4%. Materials up a half percent. Again, nothing else really taking place kind of. It was an inside data, actually an inside trading day. And our commodity watch also pretty much the same. Pretty, pretty quiet here.
One second here. Apologies, I can’t get my screen to load here. But it was again a very quiet day today. We Continue to think that gold and silver and the miners really primarily it’s backing and filling. You know we had the massive bull market run that lasted over a year and then we had the big shakeout of course just before the war started. There’s a tell but goal today was down slightly 4840, down 8, 10 of a percent. Silver a day. Down more though down 2.4% again then very, very bullish.
Volatile with any war news and rising oil prices. We had a bit of that today. Silver today, Last trade here $79.86. Copper today down 1% at $6.04 a pound. Crude oil again up 34%. 85, 89. I just remember, do you remember all the people that were saying we’re going to 150, 200. They were so confident.
They were so supremely confident. The futures market didn’t, did not share their optimism. Neither did energy stocks which started going down within about a week of the war beginning. And those were big tells. We cover those with you every day here about why we expected oil prices to go lower. And we’re there again. We almost broke 80 on Friday and again up $3 and excuse me, up $4 $3.30 a barrel today. Last trade 85.89 found the day.
[00:25:20]:
Bitcoin. Bitcoin had a really good last couple of weeks frankly from the beginning of the, from the start of the war where bitcoin bottom at 59. 7. It’s done nothing but continue to move higher. Saw a bit of a shakeout on news this weekend again around surrounding the war. Folks, all that is is a shakeout. That’s all that is. Bitcoin looks fantastic on the charts to us.
I believe this is. We’re on the, we’re on the precipice here of the next major move higher in bitcoin. And today was a good day, up 2% of the day. Last trade 76,000 again all time highs. 126. We’ll hit all time highs and go through that level this year. That remains our call. All right folks, that’s it for the day.
Hope you had a great day and even better night. We’ll see you back here again tomorrow after the close.
In today’s episode, Kip recaps Monday’s market action and dives into the ongoing “panic buying” phenomenon that’s driving this generational bull market. He discusses the wall of worry investors are still climbing, the remarkable undercurrent of fear keeping billions sidelined, and why there’s still plenty of room for markets—especially the Nasdaq and Tesla—to run. Kip explains how indicators in tech, AI, cryptocurrencies, and commodities like gold and silver signal a broader, long-lasting innovation revolution. Plus, get his thoughts on the global backdrop, the impact of fiscal stimulus, and the budding AI IPO craze. Whether you’re bullish, cautious, or still on the sidelines, this episode is packed with key insights to help you stay ahead in today’s rapidly evolving market. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.
Welcome back to the VRA Investing Podcast! In today’s episode, Kip Herriage breaks down the current state of the bull market as the S&P 500 and NASDAQ notch new all-time highs. He reflects on the accuracy of VRA’s long-term market forecasts, dives into why this era of innovation goes beyond just the AI boom, and previews changes coming to the VRA approach—including new focus on opportunistic IPO trading. Kip Herriage also shares lessons learned from the dot-com era, offers bullish insights on Tesla and Nvidia, and calls out lingering market bearishness as a powerful buy signal. Tune in for analysis on market cycles, trends in commodities like gold and bitcoin, and a candid look at why the economic growth story is just getting started.
In today’s episode, Tyler takes you through the latest developments in the markets after a parabolic move to fresh all-time highs, even as we see a brief pause with some red on the screen. Get ready for a fast-paced ride through earnings season highlights, sector analysis, and unique historical comparisons that put today’s market into perspective. Tyler breaks down why disciplined investing, understanding overbought conditions, and keeping an eye on the leadership of mega cap tech are key to navigating this market. Plus, learn why money supply growth, investor sentiment, and animal spirits may signal that the real party in the markets is just getting started. Whether you’re a seasoned listener or new to the VRA, buckle up as we explore where the biggest opportunities lie and why it’s not too late to join this bull run. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.
Welcome back to the VRA Investing Podcast with your host, Kip Herriage. In today’s episode, Kip Herriage breaks down why he believes we’re in the early innings of a powerful, structural bull market. He shares insights on market signals, major asset class moves—like the surges in gold, silver, and the miners—and explains why all-time highs across the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 are just the beginning. Kip Herriage dives into geopolitical updates, including Trump’s pivot on the current conflict and its impact on markets, and lays out his bullish outlook on key sectors—from housing and tech to cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and the emerging star, BitTensor. Plus, get his take on the Federal Reserve transition, the importance of tokenization, and why the current melt-up phase could generate massive opportunities for investors. Stay tuned for a data-packed, bullish market roadmap you won’t want to miss.
In today's episode, Tyler breaks down a powerful move to all-time highs as semiconductors go parabolic to lead the charge. He walks through the latest earnings and what the major indexes are signaling about the strength of this bull market. PLUS, don't miss what history says about what comes next after similar “melt-up” moves. Tune in to hear how he’s thinking about positioning, risk, and opportunity as this semiconductor boom accelerates.
