Don’t look back because the market is closed. Good Tuesday afternoon, everyone. Kip Herriage here with the daily VRA Investing podcast. Hope you had a good day today. You know, after what has been. It feels like about a year of misery. It’s been a brutal last four weeks.
I think, I think we’re, we’re, we’re owed today, really. Good day today. We’ll talk about that, of course. And you know, we got the news this actually last night, if you’re paying attention. You’re up late. Wall Street Journal broke a story that Trump is ready to start winding this war down. This morning it was even, even more. He put out a true social post basically saying, go to hell, uk, go to hell, allies.
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You didn’t do anything to help us. Now, guess what? We’re not gonna be there to help you. You may not have oil and jet fuel, but guess what? We have plenty coming by from us. Right? That the last statement, right? You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself. The USA won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us. Iran has been essentially decimated. The hard part is done now go get your own oil. Okay, so that, that happened.
Markets opened higher. And then we got news, of course, about midday that Iran’s president put out a proclamation that they were ready. They’re ready. They’re ready to do a deal, they’re ready for peace. And that’s what, of course, sent the markets higher. I’m going to break that down for you a little bit because I still believe I wrote this morning in my letter. I don’t think, I don’t think this is how this ends. I don’t think there’s not a single part of me that believes this ends with Iran control in the str of the straight.
And I think that something much bigger is happening here. I wasn’t sure I was going to say this or not, so I’m going to go ahead and tell you. There have been times in my past my. My wife can back me up on this. Our boys can on a couple these. They were too young. On. On the first, actually not born on the first.
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Over my life, I’ve had really vivid dreams before. Something big happens. Four days before 9 11, I had a dream that the country was in flames. And it was really vivid. And when I walked back in from taking the kids to school on that 911 morning, Cindy just looked at me like, what? A couple more times. And it happened again. I won’t go through all of them. But they’ve been kind of momentous events in this country four nights ago and I’ve already told, I’ve already told a number of friends about this, of course, our family.
So I’ll tell you now as well. I had the most vivid dream that what I saw was thousands and thousands, maybe tens of thousands. Just huge wave of people in military gear. Right. These are soldiers had their hands up in the air, raising their hands as in surrender. A huge bright light on them. They can’t see, they’re blinded and they look completely incapacitated. And my first thought when I woke up is that’s Iranian surrendering.
That’s exactly what I thought that was. And you know, you don’t have to go back very far. Remember, remember Venezuela, Remember the stories coming out of Venezuela. They just surrendered. They just gave up Maduro and the story started leaking out about they, these soldiers heard a voice in their head. You may have, if you’ve done your research and know about this, it’s been a long, long term conspiracy theory, but it’s talked about by military, military officers now. It’s pretty frequently, by the way, about the voice of God, CIA technology that basically puts a voice into your enemy’s head, in this case, surrender, give up. It sounds like God talking to you.
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Right? And we also heard about soldiers that were bleeding uncontrollably from their, from their nose, their mouth, in incredible pain, which is why a very small SEAL team. It was, I’m, I’m working on memory. It was like less than 20, 30 guys went in and pulled this off. We had no, really no injuries. Right? No aircraft were shot down. I think that’s, I think something like this is about to happen. We know that their leadership has been decapitated. The offensive capabilities are gone.
Did you see that? The, the, the, the, the, the arm. Armor, armor depot, ammo depot that was blown up last night. That’s one of the biggest explosions I’ve ever seen. And apparently that was their missile reserve or at least one of them. And we do have a three day weekend coming up now. Yeah, I know it’s Easter. I’m not sure if that’s something that the military likes to try to not try to avoid, you know, action on. But Trump’s been acting very cagey, keeping the enemy completely confused.
Now the Iranian President is saying, we want to do a deal. And this is all happening at a time when people are massively short this market. CTAs, you may have seen, I wrote this up this morning. CTA’s commodity trading advisors, basically. These are systematic. These are computer driven momentum algorithm traders. Right, Very discipline based. Right? Very rules based.
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It’s a methodology that they, they, that they, they, they, they, they. There’s they, they, they, they live by. Right, well as of last night at the end of yesterday’s trading, CTAs were even more bearish, meaning more short on US stocks than they were at the tariff mania. Market lows. $38 billion in US shorts. That’s a massive number for CTAs to be on the one side of. So as I wrote this morning, it really didn’t matter what happened next. They had to start covering.
That’s their rules based protocol. They had to start covering. And now on the back of what we saw today, right, I mean this was a big day today. I’ll share with you in a moment. Everything we saw backed up this action. And by the way, it’s a massive move higher in the things that matter most, right? Gold, silver miners, massive semis, up over almost 6% today by the way. And so this is the kind of day that looks like has staying power and the short covering because so many people got so bears fear ingredients got down to nine, nine last night. Now we’ve seen it lower than that, but not much.
Right? And folks, here’s the key point. This is what we’ve, we’ve really tried to make sure you understood about our belief system in this generational bull market is that this is a generational bull market. It is structural. It’s gonna, it’s gonna go on until the 2000 and 30s, probably well into the 2000 and 30s. And every part of the fiber of our being. I know I speak for Tyler too. Tyler was on Charles Schwab yesterday. You may have seen him.
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I shared it in the letter this morning and just knocked it out of the park. You know, the, I forget her name. The, the interviewer really challenged him on his belief system with this bull market. And then the three picks they ask you for three picks. The three he gave them were, you know, all, all VRA10 baggers, right? Tesla, Nvidia and Snowline Gold. And of course they all soared today. So Tyler looks like a rock star because he went on national television at a time when a lot of people have capitulated and it’s not very popular now to say, yeah, we’re still bullish, right? You get a lot of pushback on that. Look at my Twitter account if you, if you don’t believe that’s true.
And again, a lot of people Are very afraid. Again, fear and greediness. Nine tells you that these put call ratios are extraordinarily skewed. Again, these are all, these are all signs of a market that’s ready to bottom. Now, is this gonna be the final low? Yeah, I think it is. This, this was a very decisive day. And again, I’ll give you more data on that in a moment. We’d love to, frankly, we’d love to get a flush again.
I wrote that this morning. Flushes scare the pants off everybody sometimes including even us. But they give you your most dependable lows. So we managed not get a flush. Now yesterday, you know, yesterday about midday, NASDAQ was down over 300 points and it was looking scary. Broke to a new low. Pool call ratio was over one all day. And all of a sudden here came, here came a rally.
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Dow Jones finished up on the day yesterday. NASDAQ worked off most of its, most of its downside action. Still not, not an update, but again, far off the lows. That felt to me like a scare the out of you moment that, that felt yesterday like a flush. So we’ll see. We’d love to get another flush just to add to some positions here. We’re, we’re, we’re really well positioned in the portfolio. Again, it wouldn’t feel that way over the last four weeks.
But you know, volatility is the price of admission. That’s just the price we pay if you’re a long term investor, which we are, you know, again, we’re position builders, long term investors in our 10 baggers, our favorite growth stocks. And then we, we trade around that with our leveraged ETFs. Right. And again, those are the ones we’re just about to add to. We were very close this morning to doing just that. I think it’d probably be a mistake that we didn’t do it. But that’s okay.
You know, we want to catch 80% of the move we, we’re not great at. We don’t really want to call bottoms and tops, but we only catch the 80% of that move. So that, that, that will require us adding to some positions here in our leveraged ETFs. And you know, we, again, we’d love to see a flush for that to happen, but that’s our belief system. We wrote a whole book about it, you know, that explained the five megatrends that are unfolding here. Financial engineering, corporate earnings, expansion, the housing boom. It may not feel like it’s still a boom. It is.
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Again, if you’re New here. Welcome. I’ll just repeat some of the obvious facts again. We’ve been talking about this before forever and I still hear no one talking about it. Drives me crazy. 30, what’s the number? 36. $37 trillion in home equity. Again, these are all, all time highs.
I’m going to tell you. 40% of American homeowners have no mortgage. They paid their homes off. Average home equity is now 71%. Again, these are, this is structural in nature. There’s only one thing hurting us and we all know what that is. It’s the Fed. It’s rates being way too high.
I will say this about Jay Powell. Yesterday, Jay Powell gave a speech. It felt like it was at a college. The voices, the people asking questions. I didn’t catch where it was, but felt like these are college students now a graduate. I believe these are some good questions they ask. But Jay Powell had a much different vibe about him yesterday. You know, he was saying, no, no, we, we don’t see inflation as a problem.
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We’re looking through these high oil prices. We don’t see that continuing. That sounded like a reasonable Jay Powell. And I’ll just tell you my vibe about this. It has now been quite some time, at least that I’ve seen and I catch a lot of things try to anyway. It’s now been some time that neither Trump or his attack, his pit bull, his hack dog, Scott Bessant. It’s been some time that they’ve attacked Jay Powell and the Fed. This gun gone quiet.
Jay Powell yesterday refused to even go there about anything political. I didn’t hear him say anything that could have been perceived to be negative about Trump. Again, these are pattern changes with these, with these three. And if you, if you know me, then I started saying what was it about a week ago that Trump not only should but must drop this lawsuit against Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve for the renovations of the Fed building. Is it, is it? Is it? Was criminality in place here? I’m certainly was two and a half billion dollars. You know, you could, you could, you could build the Taj Mahal today. Pick any football stadium you want to put up brand new, it’s going to be less than that. So obviously some, something very shady happened here.
But the bigger issue for Trump is getting Powell gone. And unless he drops this suit, Powell can stay in office until 2028. His term is Fed chair is up in May. But if he wants to stay, he could be a fed governor till 2028. And as he said in his last presser I’m not going anywhere as long as this loss is going on. It wouldn’t be right to leave people rudderless and not have a Fed chair. And I, it’s kind of hard to disagree that. So I’ll just stick around.
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So Trump has to drop this lawsuit. Has to, because we need Kevin Warsh, the new fetch here to be installed in May on schedule. I believe this is a high confidence call. If Trump were to announce the DOJ that they’re dropping the lawsuit against Jay Powell and the Fed, we’re going to see a rocket ship move higher on that news. Rates will plummet, equities will soar, Gold and silver will soar. Miners go crazy. Right. These, by the way, the things we’re positioned in tech, right.
These are all the most interest rate sensitive groups. That’s how we’re positioned. And there’s a reason for that. From Trump’s inauguration when the 10 year yield was 4.8%. We told you that day, we actually wrote it before he got, you know, inaugurated. But we said one of our big calls is rates are going to plummet. Maybe not really a bold call because we know Trump’s committed to that, but that was a big call. We said the dollar would plummet, rates would plummet.
Both happened and now we’ve had a counter trend move higher. Right? A lot of it due to this war. But remember, these are counter trend moves we’re seeing now in the dollar and in rates, the long term trends, the primary trend remains lower. But again, if, if, if Trump, he has to drop the suit and if he does, market’s going to just rip, roar, right? Anyway, that’s our belief system is that this is a generational bull market. I think we’ll look back on this, we’ll look back and I’ll probably make a note to myself. So in like 2035, when I’m talking about what happened in 2026, we’ll look back on that. Go. You know the Iran war thing.
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Yeah, that was a painful 10% correction. Painful. But now with the Dow Jones at 150,000, does anyone really remember it Zone, really care? Because that’s the kind of move higher this, this generational bull market is going to put up. And again, housing boom, millennial generation, again, one of our mega trends, animal spirits, red pilled America, all of this is, is coming. We can see it playing out. But again, for that to continue, what needs to happen, Republicans need to win, win the midterms. Republican must win the presidency in 2028. We got to Keep the House and the Senate and of course, the midterms.
I don’t know that we can win without the Voting act, without the Save America Act. I don’t know that, that we can do that. It’s just too rigged. But I’m still hopeful that’s going to happen. I think Trump’s got a lot of tricks up, up his sleeve. I really do. Let me make another note while I’m on this subject of corrections, perspective helps. Perspective is something that I’m not always great at, especially in my marriage, 37 years.
I mean, you know, you fall into some bad habits. One of those, I lose perspective from time to time. But in business and in the markets, I always try to have keep perspective about things. It keeps me from getting emotional about things. And so I think this, this will help. Every 13 months, the markets have a 10% correction. That’s just on average, that’s what happens. Going back to 1950, every midterm election year has had a correction of some kind, 4 or 5%.
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Some of these were 16, 18, 1 was 30%. I think the average correction going back to 1950, the average in midterm years had been 16%. Now, we didn’t get there, but we got to 13 on NASDAQ. But in regard to where this ends up, it’s what happened next that matters most. Because once the lows are in, in a midterm election year, the average move higher over the next 12 months is 38%, 38.1, something like that. This is why, you know, we have to keep buying dips and the last thing you can do is sell. I again, we have tried to pound the table on that and a mistake to sell. I’ve written that a bunch of times.
Tyler said the same thing. And again, you don’t have to buy the exact lows if you’re brand new here, you know, do you have to buy now? No. But if we get a flush and the lows hold, that’s going to be a big tell. And again, we may have more, you know, topsy turvy action out of Iran. My dream has got me honestly, weirdly positive about how this is going to play out. And I think we’re going to see. I don’t think it’s going to end in a whimper. I think it’s going to end in a bang.
I just don’t see Trump walking away from this without securing the Strait of Hormuz and at least some form of regime change. Now, Secretary of War Pete Hexis said today regime Change has already occurred in Iran. It, he makes a pretty good point. All the other guys have been killed. We do have regime change. They’re very confused. They don’t know what’s what. They don’t really want the football because it’s a, it’s been a hand grenade for the next guy up.
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But we have had regime change. Now let’s see how it plays out. I just don’t see Trump walking away without a big win, without a Venezuela type win. And I still think that’s going to happen. And I think the people that doubted, we never did, we just haven’t doubted Trump, we’ve doubted some of the actions. You get caught up in the moment and you go, what the hell are they doing? What, what, what, what’s going on here? Is that really what you should be doing? But our view from the beginning of this consistently has been we trust Trump, we trust him in the military, we certainly trust our military. And our other big point has been if you’re an enemy of both America and Israel, you’re screwed. You’re just, it’s over.
It’s just give up. Just say, I just surrender. Because you’re not going to beat these two. Not just the firepower and the technology, but, you know, again, the intelligence. Right. Just think about in Iran, then What, what is 56% of the country hates? The, the, the, these, these radical terrorists. I mean, that’s essentially what they are. They’re the radical religious extremists.
I don’t know any way to say it except that, but over half the country doesn’t want that to be the case. So can you imagine the snitches, the spies, call them what you want to in Iran, that’s probably how they found that ammo depot last night that they blew up. So the irgc, Revolutionary Guard and the leadership of Iran, they’re not just fighting America and Israel, they’re fighting their own people. So I think this is always how it was going to end. And I really do believe that we’ll look back on this and the people that called Trump an idiot said we are unprepared, Iran is winning. I believe they’re going to look like complete idiots. And that’s a high confidence call as well. So we all want this to end, obviously, you know, we don’t, we don’t want Iranian citizens to suffer from this again.
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Most want this, most are on our side. They want this over. And we certainly don’t want our military to be impacted by this. We’ve already had 13, 13 deaths. Rest in peace to all these American heroes. We don’t want more, but they did sign up for it. And so if there’s one more action to take place to take complete control of this country, help the new government be installed, secure the straight Hormuz, and for once, once and for all, to rid the planet of these Iranian bad guys, then I’d be, I’d certainly be for that. And again, I think, I think that’s what’s going to happen.
Trump doesn’t talk about essentially surrendering and leaving without the strait being under his control. That’s not something he does. So we’ll see how it plays out. All right. Again, really good day today. As Tyler said yesterday in his interview with swab, this has been a headline driven correction and I think a lot of people have just forgotten that this has. This correction hasn’t taken place because of weakness in corporate earnings. Analysts are still raising their corporate earnings estimates for the both the.
We’re getting next. Was it next week we start getting the bank corporate earnings? Right. Big bank. I believe that’s in the next week. I don’t have the exact date. We will soon. We’ll give it all to you. Probably tomorrow’s letter.
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And they’re going to be, they’re going to be sensational. I think Wall street analysts right now are at 13% earnings growth for Q1. Right. We’ve been at 18 to 20%. I think we’ll be closer to being right than they are now. There may be some, you know, demand destruction. We haven’t seen it, though. There may be some, some impact on Q1 earnings from the war.
But I want to make this point again because I think it’s a point that not enough people are making. America is only getting stronger from this war. America has unbeatable moats that no country on the planet can even hope to say they have. Think about every sector of the American economy. It’s a moat that has no competition. And the thing about this war is it’s widening these moats. These moats are getting larger, stronger again. Other countries are seeing true demand destruction in their economy.
They’re seeing people with complete paralysis and companies that don’t know what to do. Energy prices skyrocketing. Yeah, they are here a bit, too, but nothing like, like Europe’s energy prices are seven times higher than ours. I mean, can you imagine that? It’s like living in California 24, 7. So it’s these moats that America has that that make us the destination for money, for the markets and we’re going to come out of this even stronger than before. And I’ll just make the point that this military spending, guess what it is. Yeah, it’s a, it’s a, it’s a, it’s a large form of fiscal stimulus. If you’ve seen what’s happening in trucking, trucking rates are going up because again, they can demand it.
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Demand. It’s because of manufacturing. It’s because the Trump economic miracles from the one big beautiful bill being able to expense 100% of everything in year one. Right. We know about the AI boom and some people are saying that’s over now. Folks were so early in that again, some people are going to look very, very dumb in the not too distant future. That’s our call. If, hey, if we’re the ones that look dumb, we’ll tell you and, and we’ll say we made a mistake.
That’s. I do not see that happening. Let’s get to the, some of the keys in the market today. Again. I just want to, I want to go over this with you because these, these are all important numbers I’m about to give you here. Semis up 5.7% today. Big volume Tesla which has been battered up 4.6% today. Nvidia, it’s been battered up 5.6% today.
Gold. It’s important, by the way. It’s not just a, an arcane relic. The action of gold and silver in the miners, especially gold and silver, acting like they’ve been acting over the last three, four days where they’ve been going up as the market’s gone down. That’s a tell. That’s a tell that we’re getting back to normality. That’s a tell that they’re acting as a flight to safety trade as rates are coming down again. Gold, silver, and really it’s gold because again, silver’s industrial metal, but precious metals and rates now moving in the same direction.
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Right. I should, you know. Yeah, rates, rates going, rates going lower. Inverse, of course, gold, silver going higher. And that is a very healthy sign for the markets. So gold today really blasted off on all this news. Gold finishing up 3.8% today. Silver only up 7.3%.
Right. So we’ve had this big shakeout. If you’ve been with us here, you know what our call has been? Buy this dip. Whatever you do, whatever group you’re thinking about initiating a position in or buying more of, make it gold, silver. And especially the miners. GDX today. Gold Miner ETF up 7%. GDXJ the Junior Gold Miner ETF up 8.5% and of course both of ours were up.
Big Snow line Vista up 8% and 11%. Ten baggers and we, we’ve really pounded the table in this group this week. As I wrote, I think it was yesterday, the day before. If you do one thing, buy the gold miners because they’ve had such a massive move over the last two years and a lot of people felt they missed it, some of you may have missed it and then you bought in higher. Maybe, maybe you bought you know, at extreme rebut on steroids. We tried to make sure that you understand where we are at the very system. There was a long stretch there where we just weren’t batting to positions, you know, except they are. To Clarify in our 10 baggers we always use monthly dollar cost averaging so we don’t have to worry about the price.
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But for new people looking to buy, we pounded the table on these junior miners in gold and silver because again this, we are so early in this bull market. Our target remains 15,000 for gold, 300 for silver. I think both of those be on the low side which means these miners are going to truly go parabolic. And again this is just a great opportunity, maybe, maybe your first opportunity or a great opportunity to add to positions. And that’s really, I think where our focus should be right now because these other positions are going to come back just fine. Our ETFs will come back just fine but they’re not going to do what these gold miners are going to do. Right. Tesla is another one.
Again the number one stock, I believe the number one stock to own for the innovation revolution. Tesla at 371 it goes four and a half percent at 371 is an absolute steal. I feel like we’re in a. We have the ability to get in a time machine and flash forward five years. Ten years. Ten years. Tesla’s $10,000 a share. It’s 371 now.
And yeah that is our call. So it’s great. It’s a phenomenal opportunity to buy a great company at dirt cheap prices. That’s how we see it. And I’ll just haven’t said this in a while so I’ll say it again. If you’ve yet to test drive a Tesla, just this weekend it’s Easter. But just when you get a chance go down to the nearest Tesla dealership and tell them you want to test test drive a Tesla. If they have a Model S, please ask for that.
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You want to test Drive a Tesla and you want them to show you how to use FSD full self driving and then go take it for a spin and watch how the car drives you absolutely perfectly. It’s not quite flawless. Like it doesn’t pull me into my garage. That might be on me, by the way. I think I’ve got one more thing to program, but bottom line is it’s not perfect yet. Parking in a, in a, in a crowded place again, you know, you find a spot you want, then you take over the wheel. But. So I’m saying we’re that close to perfection.
But the last seven trips we’ve taken in our model is plaid, which is best car I’ve ever owned. I’ll never not own a Tesla. The. The last seven trips we’ve taken, I’ve yet to touch the steering wheel. The car drives us. It’s just, it’s effortless and it’s just so relaxing to be in a car. It’s, it’s. We, we have the data now.
Musk just posted this, what, earlier this week. I believe Tesla full self driving is now nine times safer than a human being. That’s what the data tells them. And in the very near Future version of 14.3, if I’m 10.3 or I think it’s 10.3, 10.3 of FSD comes out soon. And as Musk has said in the past, when this is launched, it’ll be 20 times safer than a human driver. So that’s coming soon and that’s when the robo taxis will be everywhere. Because how can you, how can you fight that, that, that knowledge, right? And, and that, that proven Track record, that’s 20 times safer than a human driver. So it’s all coming.
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And again, it’s great time, great time to buy the stock. All right, let’s take a look under the. Yeah, let’s look into the hood. I could keep talking, but let’s get to the meat potatoes here under the hood. Really good day today. Advanced decline NYSE 3.4 to 1. Nasdaq 4 to 1. Again, these numbers confirm the action today.
Up volume NYSE 77.4. That’s very good. Nasdaq up volume 87.4%. All right, that’s almost a, a breath thrust buy signal over 90% is now, if we get back to back days, over an 80%. That’s also a breath thrust buy signal. So stellar days today. Now we did have more than about 200 more. Stocks at 52, close at a high.
It was like 4 to 1 excuse me 3 to 1. But that’s a cumulative read. This morning the action was good but not great. Again it changed as they went on. So we not going to let that bothers at all today. I would expect tomorrow to be much different. So great internals today. Sector watch today also very good.
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Nine of 11 sectors finished higher. Really it’s 10 of 11 because energy was down 1%. Well oil got smoked today. I say smoked oil was down today. Utilities were flat on the day. So it was really 10 of 11. Leading the upside. Communication services which is essentially tech up 4.4%.
Technology up 4.2%. These are big, big moves higher. Consumer discretionary up 3 point. We had five sectors up better than 3% today in a commodity watch again this is, this is what I like talking about. Gold up 141 to 4699. That’s 3.1%. Silver again up over 7% today. 7534 crude oil today down again.
I’m. I’m kind of surprised it was a lower again. There are some look there are going to be some supply chain disruptions. There are going to be some deliverability issues. If you notice the straight horn muse today looked quite a bit different. A lot of ships going through today. It’ll take time to bring it down. Oil will remain elevated for some time.
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But look at xle. I mean that’s, that’s telling you the future direction of, of Oil xl, the energy etf. Take a look at the December futures for crude oil. There’s 75. The futures are telling you what was going to happen. The markets always know more than anybody else and the futures just have never gotten a big run up. Last trade though crude oil 56 found the day. Bitcoin again this is been one of our favorite tells.
Bitcoin on the morning of the bombing hit 59,700 never challenged that again. Now a 68,153 it would be higher but there’s been a story out there that quantum computing is could, could, could, could could dismantle these wallets and maybe even the blockchain. But I’ve read so many other stories that say don’t they’re only some minor fixes need to happen. We can use quantum computing on our side too meaning crypto side too. So I think that’s some fear mongering that it’s just not, it’s not relevant at this, at this point. Maybe in a few years it will be more but not now. So I think Bitcoin looks really good. And again, we’re.
We’re. We’re buying bitcoin here as well. All right, folks, good day. Today. Fear. Fear ingredient index gets below 10. I think that’s just a buy signal. Again, we’re not trying to.
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To buy the exact lows. We want to be in that neighborhood. Right? And that. That’s where we are now. All right, folks, that’s it for the day. Hope you had a great day and even better night. We’ll see you back here again tomorrow after the close.