In today’s episode, Tyler returns after a brief break, sharing some personal updates and reflecting on recent conversations about the markets. As we kick off June with another phenomenal week, three out of the four major market ...
Don’t look back because the market is closed. Good Tuesday afternoon, everyone. Tyler Herriage here with you for today’s VRA Investing podcast. Hope you all had a great day out there today. Hope your week is off to a great start here. It has been another phenomenal start to the week for our markets. I hope that’s helped out this the beginning of your week here as we got three out of our four major indexes hitting all time highs here today.
So great to be back here with you on the podcast and always great to be with you on a day of all time highs and to come back to a day of all time highs. I did just get back from a little bit of a trip here. I had the great honor and privilege of being the best man and one of my best friends of, I mean over 20, 20 years now, over the weekend. So it was a truly special experience. Congratulations to the, to the newlyweds out there and it’s just great to be back with you here though, so grateful for the opportunity to be here with you at the market close throughout the week and discussing these things. I can’t tell you how many conversations about the markets or a specific sector in the markets. There’s a, there’s a whole lot of engineers in this group and I, there’s really, that’s a fun group of people to talk to from so many different angles. Just a wealth of knowledge.
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So that’s, you know, CIB and I talk about it here a lot, how much we really do enjoy this and how look at this is such a blessing to be able to do this every single day. So I was excited to get back here with you today. Feels great to be back. So we’ll keep this one a little bit brief today as we get back into the swing of things here. No video today, so sorry about that one because there are some great screen shares that I’ve got here coming up. Stay tuned for it later in the week. We’ll get it all together for you. But Kip knocked out some fantastic podcasts while I was gone.
So thanks for covering for me, dad. And great, great to be back here. But again, this really is what we enjoy doing. We wouldn’t be doing anything else on a daily basis if we had our choice, right? This is going back to for Sam and I’s our childhood, these were the conversations we enjoyed having around the dinner table. I’m sure. You know, my mom might not have always enjoyed it quite as much, but it is what we do all the time. So again, kind of Going back to this trip and having conversations about the market or again, various sectors in there. This really is such a joy.
So great to be back here with you. Without further ado, we’ll start jumping into some market action here today because a lot going on here, not only all time highs, which we’ve seen quite a few of here. You know, this is a theme that we’ve had for the last few months. From the March lows, the March 30 lows, from the Iranian conflict going on to today. We said we’re looking at a rotational bull market as this bull market has entered, you know, three and a half years now. Hard to believe that it’s almost been four years since Kip and I, my dad and I published the Big Bribe in October of or sorry, In August of 2022, just about a month or two before the bear market lows. I’m thinking that it was September is when we publish, I think it was one month before the October 13th lows. And I’ve got a phenomenal stat to share with you here that if you’re looking at this parabolic move higher that we’ve seen from those lows to today and you’re getting a little worried, right.
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It’s tough to aggressively buy the market if you haven’t been in it when you’re at all time highs, that doesn’t feel good. I’ve got a few stats here for you if you’re in that boat or if you’re just under invested right now. Stay tuned for these because these can be game changer level stats for the way you look at the markets. You know, it’s never going to be straight up, but at the end of the day, all time highs beget new highs. So we’ll begin there. I’ll give you some data to back that up as well as it has been an incredible move. But as we wrote in the big bribe in 2022, we see this as a bull market that has the potential. Not.
Not the potential. We really see it as it almost. Okay, I’ll say with the potential. We’ll start there and we’ll elaborate as we go on the podcast to exceed the 1995 to 2000.com melt up where the NASDAQ rallied over 575% around that level. Right. Depending on which day you start from, as of today, the NASDAQ is up a little over 160%. So we see this as having the ability to not only exceed the.com melt up in gains, but in length as well we said this is a bull market that’s going to run through 2030 and beyond, especially as we’ve continued in this innovation revolution which is exactly what we called it in 2022 pre chatgpt. So again pre the AI bubble as many people like to say, we’re nowhere near a bubble esque top.
And again I’ll share some more stats on that here today. And what is so surprising about these all time highs after all time highs though is that sentiment has not really budged. I’ll share some stats on that. We are seeing some sentiment indicators that are leaning heavily bullish but just nowhere near the level of bullishness you see at market tops. Now as you know we often cover from there we’ll cover our internals sector watch of course our commodities and bitcoin today so stay tuned on that one as well because if you saw it earlier today, Bitcoin did hit roughly three month lows today. I know that never feels good and and we remain long and strong Bitcoin here the news on the day. I’ll get to it right after the VRA Commodity watch. So stay tuned.
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Got a lot of exciting stuff to jump back into here Again great to be here with you. So let’s take a look here starting with our market action. We were led by the Russell 2000 today which is great to see. It was our one major or what we consider our of our four major indexes it was our only one not to hit an all time high. Let me just double check here that so trying to see yes, didn’t hit an all time intraday high or an all time closing high today but still right in that range and it has been a leader from the bear market lows as well. So good to see small caps continuing to lead and it bodes well for what we see coming next in rates. We said this for some time that rates are coming lower. So looking at the 10 year yield, I mean it’s been I’ll have to share this chart again as you’ve seen me here do often on the video ones of just right about the levels of resistance that we pointed out.
And I’ll share the same chart that I’ve shared for the last few months that it looks to be right exactly where yields have failed at at this point. And now we look at what has happened since Kevin Warsh was confirmed as Fed Chairman because it’s right on track right since he was since he’s was sworn in all the markets have done is go up even for all the Talk of saying that he was going to be hawkish and that we were going to get rate hikes this year. It wasn’t that long ago people were, you know, had switched from there. We came into the year with an expectation of a minimum of three rate cuts. That’s what the market was saying. And then switched completely despite getting Kevin Warsh nominated to where people, people were considering a rate hikes this year due to some of the increases we’ve seen in inflation. I’m not going to dive too deep in that into that today. Kip did a great job of covering it last week after we got the latest in inflation data.
Right. What we’ve said from the peak in inflation data from 2022 to today is that it’s a rearview mirror issue. It was never going to be straight down from where we were in 2022. But as we continue to believe, we’ll see a series of lower highs and lower lows in inflation, which will ultimately become disinflation and ultimately thanks to the innovation revolution, deflation. We’ve been saying that for some time now. We’ve got some funny looks along the way. Now we’re starting to get a number of analysts that are joining in this call. You know, Elon, I won’t say that he joined us.
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He was one of the first guys who really pioneered this, but we were saying it before him, so let me be clear on that one. But as he talked about whether it’s Optimus or full self driving and what these things can do to bring down costs, a lot of people believe that we won’t be able to print money fast enough to escape the deflationary pressures from innovation. If you look throughout history, that has been the case. Innovation drives deflation. So back to Kevin Warsh here for a second. We’ll wrap on rates. I’ll share that chart in my next video podcast. But the market, and you know, the bond market specifically, is catching on here that massive changes are coming to the Fed.
And this isn’t a political type of change. It’s changes that we’ve said here needed to take place at the Fed for some time. As you know, we’re not huge fans of the Federal Reserve here. Another one that I won’t dive too deep into today. But if you want to learn more and you’re not a regular here with us at the vra, we’ll recommend the Creature from Jekyll island by G. Edward Griffin, where he lays out what we’ve seen since the Federal Reserve was created in 1913 and more importantly, how it was created. But most important point, since the Federal Reserve was created in 1913, the US dollar has lost 97% plus of its value. So tells you, it tells you a lot of what you need to know anyway.
So I won’t dive too much into it. But even in the last couple of decades, the changes we’ve seen from the Fed have really been market moving level changes. They’ve taken Federal Reserve board members, FOMC members and turned them into celebrities where every time you have an FOMC meeting, you know, there’s always the big oh, Fed blackout. You, they can’t say anything until after they meet. And then after they meet you get, you know, weeks of just, you got this Fed speaker and this Fed speaker, you know, it’s the Atlanta Fed, it’s from the Dallas Fed and everybody out there, including non voting members, all have to get their opinions out there in the media and it’s just a cacophony of, of noise from them because they never agree on anything. So you never get a unified vision even if they’re all voting unanimously. Right. They’re all saying different things in the media and that didn’t really happen until the, I believe the financial crisis.
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If I were to check here when they started doing the live televised Fed presser and all of that, it’s not like it’s always been this way. I might be off a few years on when it, exactly it began but I mean, I’ll double check it here for you. I won’t, I don’t want to say something wrong on the podcast here, but it is a modern invention, relatively speaking of the Fed. And so we’re hearing now that this is going to change, you know, no more of this. Yes, we, we want, we want to hear and have transparency if we’re going to have a Federal Reserve at all. Yes, we need that. But the way they’re going about it is chaos, right? It really is. So what the market is catching onto here is that they’re going to clean up things at the Fed.
Right. Massive changes are coming, rates will go lower and it’s, it’s not going to be the chaos that we saw. Right. They’re going to, it’s going to be well communicated, that’s what we see. At least we’ll see how it plays out. But our long term call regardless of the changes at the Fed is that rates are going lower, that remains unchanged and the economy is going to boom from here. Even in some ways more so than energy prices right now. Yields are Actually contributing to inflation.
That’s, you know, I have to, I won’t speak for Kip on that one, but I would say so even as long as oil is in the 90 below $100 a barrel range, I would say, you know, I might revise some of these numbers. But based off of the way we look at the markets and the level that real estate prices affect and are calculated into at least the way that, you know, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, how they calculate inflation, we prefer truflation here. It’s a much better look in a live look at what rent prices are, which have come down dramatically, but the cost of owning a home is up significantly. And if you can lower rates, that is so much of what is hurting the housing market right now. And in turn, we’re not getting enough housing being built just like we’ve seen at least here in Austin, Texas. I’ll give you a quick microcosm of what we can see in the whole country. We way overbuilt apartments and apartments that were going for, you know, 2200 to 2,400 are going for nearly half, half of that right now. You can get phenomenal.
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It’s a great time to be a renter in the state of Texas, I believe as a whole, really. But definitely in Austin, Texas, it, it makes way more sense if you don’t already own a home to go rent for a little while now if you need to be in home, of course you can always refinance later. It’s never, you know, the worst thing in the world. But what do they say, you know, marry the home, date the rate. It’s not that big of a deal in the short term. Right. It’s not like anyway we could dive into that one for a whole podcast. But to that point though, for people who do want to get in the home, and again, we’re not with yields at these levels, is restricting home builders from going out and building a ton, which they want to do anyway.
That, that’s enough. We’ll get into housing a little bit more with the sector watch today. But again, long term call yields going lower, the dollar continuing its move lower. That’s been our call from Trump’s inauguration and it has been a repeat of what we saw in 2017. These are the fundamentals we laid out in the big bribe that still stay true today, that we are going to see a Trump economic miracle. Even that was before Trump was reelected and we said that because of the policies that he implemented during his first term, whether it was deregulatory aspects, the tax breaks, those can’t be understated and are still a huge contribution of where the US economy is today. Then of course the innovation revolution and then our final of the big three more recently is the ocean of liquidity out there for our markets. We hear this one a lot as well that all of these trillion dollar IPOs are going to suck all of the liquidity out of this market.
Well it does sound like a big number, you know, trillions of dollars in market cap. Right. But let me share a few stats here for you on this. Specifically SpaceX will IPO. Largest IPO you know in US history certainly. Sorry, real quick but even SpaceX is only, only really raising roughly $70 billion. I say only when you put it in context of a trillion dollar company, no doubt a lot of money and you got the major IPOs behind it and and many many more to come of mid to smaller IPOs that’s you know, so but you just look at the big ones, whether it’s anthropic OpenAI Andreal which is completely different in many ways but still you take all of these and you’re looking at companies raising you know, a few hundred million dollars, maybe less. 3, 300 billion or less, I might say million a second 300 billion or less.
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Just to give you a frame of reference, the s and P500 its all time high today has a market cap of $69 trillion. So yeah I think there’s some room in there to soak up some liquidity but that’s, that’s only for the market. Right. We’re seeing money supply all time highs. Money market people talk about the savings rate being low. I mean maybe relative to other stats we’re seeing record highs in money market accounts. That’s cash on the sidelines that is underperforming the market right now. Think about that.
It may be treading water if you have a great money market account, most people it doesn’t even keep up with inflation. Right. Cash is trash in this environment. They’re going to keep printing it. M2 money supply will continue to hit all time highs and it’s why we’ve said again to repeat from the big bribe, you must own inflationary assets meaning assets that will benefit from inflation. Now I did say inflation is not coming back and I do stand by that. This is a separate conversation. It’s very confusing a lot of times but that type of it’s not inflation, it’s currency debasement is essentially what we’re seeing.
It doesn’t mean that inflation has to come back two totally separate things. So back to the ocean of liquidity again. M2 money supply all time high. Money market account all time highs. That means cash on the sidelines. More cash on the sidelines. 40% of homeowners to the housing point own their home outright. You think they’re going to sell their home too? While you have yields at this level, where are you going to move unless you’re going to rent? That’s certainly possibility.
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But no, not everybody wants that right. So we have so much untapped cash across the board in America. Record number of homeowners who own their home outright. Home equity line of credit nowhere near worry worrisome levels. There’s, there’s one more in there. I know I don’t have my notes right in front of me that I should here that it is the average home equity right now like it’s the average is like 70% of people’s homes are paid off. It’s the numbers the fundamentals in this market will astound you as Kevin are riding the big bribe. You’ve got credit scores at all time highs.
The ability to lever up here is incredible for the consumer. But as we started writing the Big Brother we were shocked by this right? And we’re the only people saying it at the time. And again nothing has changed today which is why it has surprised us here. Just how not necessarily maybe bearish in some areas, yes, but just the lack of excitement and bullishness here despite again small caps just shy of an all time high followed by the down Jones up roughly half a percent.228 points on the day all time high. The S&P 500 also an an all time high. And here’s the incredible stat. You know there’s so many great stats of all time highs end up being some of the. If you could buy it any day over history like going back to 1957 the same as this stat.
I believe the best, one of the best days you could have bought to outperform the market on a regular basis has been at all time highs, believe it or not. And if you look over the history going back of the S&P 500 going back to 1957 there have been 1328 all time highs. This is a Peter Malok stack if you a stat if you want to find it that means as far as trading day goes The S&P 500 hits an all time high on average every 19 days. Now there have been long periods in there where we didn’t hit all time highs. But point being, when you look at your portfolio and at investing, perspective matters so much, whether you’re old or young. Right? Perspective really matters so much. So much of investing is really just not panicking. Don’t panic.
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Sell. At the end of the day, if that’s something that you want some help with, come and join us here at the vra. Our number one mission is making sure that you have a fully funded retirement account. That is our goal. That’s what gets us up in the morning, excited to be here with you. We want to help the everyday mom and pop retail investor out there to absolutely crush the market and again, to be able to have that retirement of your dreams. This is, you know, not to go back to more Trump quotes, but for so long at least, you know, for my generation, especially after the financial crisis and in order not to get political, but the Obama years and even the Bush years before that, you know, unnecessary wars again, financial crisis, all of these things we’ve been told, Kip and I talk this one a lot, to expect less. And Trump came in and said, no, we should begin to expect more.
A better life, A better life for our kids. Not to cut back and save better, but to go out and make more money. Right? To go out and have more opportunity. That’s what we should expect and that’s what we should plan for and that’s what we should strive for. Yes, it takes work, but it is, it’s more of a willpower issue than it is really a fact of nature. So again, if you’re not with us here already, we’d love to have you with us. You can join us@vra letter.com you’ll find the podcast link on there. And I usually do videos as well.
Can’t wait to get back on that. I’ll share some great stats and charts for you on just what that looks like and more evidence to back it up if that’s something that you would like. So finally here for our major indexes again, all time highs across the board in Nasdaq. To wrap it up here, this is an all time closing high for the Nasdaq. Blue is just shy of the all time intraday high. Always put it in my notes, but yeah, just short of an all time intraday high. But it was an all time closing high today in the semis. Just tore the COVID off the ball.
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Sox up 5.87%. Just an incredible move higher into the rotational point of this bull market though the semis are at, you know, are approaching Again here, extreme overbought on steroids. Not quite there. Still got to get there for some of our VRA momentum oscillators. But when you start to see the Dow really performing here and materials getting back into it and industrials. This is the rotational bull market that we’ve been talking about from those March 30 lows. And we see it in things like the percentage of stocks that are above their 50 day or 200 day moving average. Both of those are nowhere near stretched levels that you say up.
We’re looking at a market top. You can get above, you know, 90% on these, these indicators whether it’s percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 above the again 50 day or 200 day and then they stay there for weeks and potentially months on end before you see a market top. Today only roughly 50% of stocks in the S&P 551% are above the 50 day moving average. 53% above the 200 day. Again, no signs of a market top there. All right, we’ll start to get through the end of this year because one last one that again, no signs of a market top. Despite all of these all time highs, we still had another round of AII the the Investor Sentiment Survey survey AI that came in with more bears than bulls. Once again 40.
Nearly 42% of investors who participate in the survey bearish. Only 35.6% bullish right now. Again, this is another one. Until you see bulls way on top of bears for months on end. Those are the kinds of signs you look at for euphoria or irrational exuberance as it’s been called. Another one, the fear and greed index. Yes, we are in greed mode, but the market tops. We’ll get to extreme greed and stay at those levels.
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That’s what we’ll be looking at. And to be clear here, yes, we are getting to extreme overbought levels. But in a market like this, even a parabolic move higher, the old saying, the market can stay irrational longer than most people can stay solvent. You definitely don’t want to be fighting this market. And so to be clear, even at these levels, unless there’s some type of portfolio adjustment you’re making, we’re not selling here. We may pause our monthly dollar cost averaging in times like this when we’re hitting extreme overbought. But in markets like this, you’ve got to hold your winners. Profit taking is fine, but you do want to hold on to parts of these positions here.
And again, while we’re huge believers and and monthly dollar cost averaging. All right, to wrap it up here today, the market internals not what you really want to see here. Not terrible but you know, no big beats on a day for all time highs even though it weren’t huge gains on the day but positive across the board here for the NYSE more advancing stocks than declining more 52 week highs than lows and volume pretty flat. But we beat the Nasdaq was negative just slightly on advanced decline. Big beat though, nice on 52 week highs to lows. That’s a lagging indicator though. So I won’t try to rationalize the data here today but that just a heads up on that one. And then volume here was negative.
Not a huge loss or anything for the Nasdaq but it has just been such a parabolic move higher. We could probably use some more rotational themes to this market. But what we’re looking at here is going to be a bull market like we’ve never seen. And if you’re feeling like you’re getting behind, take a deep breath. There’s still plenty of room to run. There’s going to be so many winners out there and you just can’t own them all at the end of the day. So it’s really hard to jump around from this winner to that winner, this winner, that winner. As it’s much in our view a better approach is positioning yourself for when those rotations come you won’t want to be.
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There are great traders out there. Don’t get me wrong, I like the longer term horizons a little bit more that that’s our view here. And yes, don’t get me wrong, we do make some trades as well. We’ve got our parabolic options program. So come and join us. We’ll show you exactly how we’ll do everything. All right, our sectors here on the day today we finished with 7 out of our 11 sectors higher on the day. Utilities, materials and industrials.
Again kind of rotational theme that I mentioned earlier. We did have an all time high here from the tech sector. As you might expect our laggards on the day, communication services, consumer discretionary and consumer staples and really you know, financial is essentially flat on the day. So I guess you could probably call it 8 out of 11 higher on the day. All right here finally for today, just make sure. I know I had a couple of points in here. Just want to make sure that I don’t miss. All right, we’ll, we’ll wrap it up because this is right, right on where I want to get to here.
Gold Was higher on the day now down slightly in after hours trading. Naturally my screen frees up right the time. There we go. Last trade here. $4,518 an ounce. Exactly what you want to see from this group today though GDX leading this would be another rotation that we’d look forward to take place here soon. Time for this sector. The phenomenal earnings growth in Q1 and that’s just not a sign of a sector or a market top.
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Markets top after earnings top. And the mining sector just had the highest profit margins of every sector out there. Yes, even more so than a lot of tech names. Silver on the day last trade, $75.43 an ounce copper $6.66 a pound. I do want to run that chart really quick here. That is I believe in all time high up. That is an all time high here for copper today. In the interest of time, I won’t.
Let’s see. See it does look slightly below the all time high. $6 and 71 cents a pound again today. Last trade here, $6.66 a pound. And finally as I mentioned, I’ll be quick here on bitcoin as it was announced today that Michael Sailor will be selling in micro strategy, will be selling some bitcoin. If I got this correct here, there’s only one other time that they’ve sold bitcoin and it was in December of 2022, if you can remember that far back. Believe it or not, bitcoin at the time in December of 2022. Let me go back here.
It was, I mean that was the bear market year, right in 2021 after Covid Bitcoin peaked at 69,000, fell all the way back down to the middle 15,000. They sold in rough just after that. So not quite at the lows but in The I believe 16, 5 to 18,000 range, if that’s correct. And then I was just again just after the lows and then bitcoin went on a run from there, had a great 2023, great 2024, got back to an all time high and that’s been the cycle. So we’ll see if we can get a similar result here. But. But just again for anybody who’s incredibly worried about it is not the death sentence that you might think that it is at least the one other previous sell that we really have here. Folks.
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We do remain long and strong on bitcoin here. If anything changes, we’ll be the first to let you know. That is all that we have time for here today. Please Be sure to subscribe to receive our podcast every day at the market close. You can sign up@vra letter.com click the podcast link at the top and we’d love to have you with us. Thanks again for tuning in. Until next time, we’ll see you back here tomorrow for the close.
In today's episode, Tyler breaks down a volatile market session shaped by geopolitical tensions, including an escalating Iranian conflict and a high-profile True Social post from Donald Trump. You’ll hear key insights on what’s happening under the surface of the markets, the resilience of the semiconductor sector despite heavy selling, and a dive into sentiment indicators that may surprise you. Tyler also shares his perspectives on the upcoming midterms, why political certainty matters to markets, and delivers an exciting update on SpaceX and its ambitious plans for Mars colonization. Plus, get the latest on sector performance, the Fear & Greed Index, and what the data means for investors looking ahead to the end of the year. Stay tuned for a well-rounded analysis and the contrarian moves shaping today’s market landscape. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.
Welcome to another episode of the VRA Investing Podcast with your host, Tyler Herriage. In today’s show, Tyler Herriage breaks down the strong start to the week for the markets, following a tough sell-off last Friday—the worst day of the year so far for the S&P 500. He discusses why there’s no need to panic, sharing historical stats that reinforce this bull market’s staying power and why short-term dips are just part of the journey. We’ll cover major headlines like Tesla’s surge on the back of big news from their newest major investor—the “Chinese Warren Buffett”—as well as what’s heating up in the IPO world with OpenAI’s recent filing. Tyler Herriage will review key index moves, sentiment readings, sector highlights, internals, and commodities including Bitcoin and notable winners like Galaxy Digital. Plus, he touches on practical investment strategies, the outlook for VRA’s favorite “10 bagger” stocks, and why now could be a generational opportunity for retail investors. Stay tuned for all the essential stats, stories, and actionable insights from today’s market action!
In today's episode, Kip breaks down a turbulent Friday in the markets, where a brutal selloff sent shockwaves through major sectors but also revealed underlying signals of opportunity. From a rare 39% spike in the VIX to sharp declines in semiconductors, gold, and bitcoin, Kip explores why volatility is the true price of admission in bull markets and why panic selling may be the biggest mistake investors can make right now. With insights on recent jobs data, upcoming IPOs, and critical market indicators, this episode is packed with the actionable analysis and contrarian perspective you need to navigate today's market chaos and prepare for the opportunities ahead. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.
In today’s episode, Tyler breaks down a record-setting day in the markets, with the Dow Jones and other major indexes hitting all-time highs. He discusses current market trends, the breadth expansion, and the rotation of this bull market, highlighting the persistent strength beyond the headline-making “Magnificent Seven” stocks. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.
Welcome back to the VRA Investing Podcast! It’s a jam-packed Wednesday as Kip Herriage returns after three days away with an in-depth market update. Today, Kip Herriage breaks down the end of the market’s nine-day winning streak, why he believes this is a "buy the dip" moment, and how the VRA System signals there’s plenty of room left in this powerful, long-lasting bull market. He covers headlines from a parabolic surge in semiconductors and AI stocks, to the impact of global events on oil and rates, and the market’s anticipation for the SpaceX IPO. On the company front, we get updates on Tesla's breakthrough robo-taxi rollouts in Austin and promising news for Lost Soldier investors. Kip Herriage also unpacks the latest in Bitcoin volatility, gold and miners, and why retail investors may be selling the recovery short. Strap in for a fast-moving, insight-packed episode that puts the week’s major financial headlines into sharp focus!
