Welcome to the VRA Investing Podcast. In today’s episode, Speaker A recaps a resilient market performance in the face of geopolitical turmoil, highlighting how, despite heightened tensions in the Middle East and strong rhetoric from Washington, U.S. markets closed at their highs. Speaker A explores the signals pointing to a bullish market pivot, including robust job numbers, the continued strength of semiconductors and bitcoin, and indicators suggesting the worst of the recent market correction may be behind us. The show also dives into the potential of the ongoing innovation revolution, including tokenization and the real-world application of blockchain, and shares why the coming years could bring generational investment opportunities. With sector updates, market internals, and key analysis, Speaker A provides a roadmap for navigating the current landscape and seizing growth opportunities in a rapidly evolving economy.

Don’t look back. The market is closed. Good. Monday afternoon, everyone. Kip Herriage here with the daily VRA investing podcast. Hope you had a good. Hope you had a good Easter weekend. This weekend, I know we did see the family and spend some quality time.

We really don’t make enough time to do that. So again, hope, hope yours was great as well. We have a few things to talk about today. Uh, I’m going to try to keep this as succinct as possible and really get to it here. Here, here are the topics because we again, let talk about, oh, Iran, war. I’m not going to get into the war itself. This rescue mission was pretty incredible. You know, if you watch Trump’s presser today.

I was scheduled to be on Charles Payne show today, making money on Fox Business, of course. And, uh, I got a call from his producer, Nick, about 15 minutes into it. He said, look, we’re call. I’m calling everybody. It doesn’t look like we’re gonna have anybody on this show. He’s, he’s like, he’s wound up and ready to go. And he was right. So I’ll be rescheduled for later this week.

But I watched most of it and Tyler made this point, which I thought was a pretty good point. How resilient, how resilient was the market today? We closed at the highs of the day today, right? Pretty much across the board. And I’m sitting there watching, I watched on Bloomberg, so I’m watching the market screen at the same time, you know, as Trump speaking. And I keep thinking, this market’s about to get hit. This market’s about to get hit. Because he’s talking about taking them back to the Stone Age, like in the next few hours. I mean, at first I heard him say midnight, then I heard him say tomorrow night. So maybe he was talking about Tuesday midnight.

But again, near term, right? And I mean, he just stopped short of saying we’re going to nuke him. I mean, what else, what else could it mean? But the markets didn’t even blemish. There’s not a, not a budge to them. And as my first mentor, Ted Parsons told me, it’s not the, it’s not the news that matters. It’s the market’s reaction to that news. That’s the tell. That’s what we pay attention to when it comes to investing. And again, the news has been not great.

Again, we’re talking about an end to this. But then here come. You know, I think Pete Hex has said today in the last 24 hours is the hearts where we’ve hit them Iran since the war started. So certainly the action is not, not let up. And again, you know, taking back the stone Age. First of all, I think this has to be said because Trump knows what it means to be a war criminal. There’s just no way he and his military team, advisors, there’s no way they don’t know that if you take out their power plants, you take out their water facility decentralization plants, you take that out. As Tyler again reminded me, I’d forgotten how big Iran is.

Like 90 to 100 million is a population. How many millions of people could, could die without water and electricity? A lot. Obviously Trump knows this. So I, I think, I think he’s really speaking to, certainly to the Iranian, you know, radicals. Certainly he’s speaking to them. But I think just as much he’s speaking to the neighbors, the Gulf State neighbors say, guys, this, this is, this is about to get ugly. If you have any power, get to get through to these, these radicals that apparently just want to be martyrs. I mean, that’s, that they, they want to die for the cause.

Well, that’s certainly not the vast majority of the Iranian people. What is it maybe, what are we talking about? 5%, 10%, 20%? Vast majority. This is what Wayne Root told me today. He said no one wants to die. They may say they do die for the cause, to get the virgins or whatever. No one wants to die. And Wayne believes this is a deal that’s going to get done. I believe a deal is going to get done.

I think the markets are telling us there’s some kind of a deal is going to get done. I think Trump has made the pivot. We’ve seen it before, haven’t we? I think we saw, we saw with the plandemic when the lockdowns were lifted, just as the market was really cratering. Of course then the Federal Reserve came in and bailed them out. That’s why the markets had the V shape move higher after the pandemic. But that’s, isn’t it different now? Right. We’re not seeing that because this Federal Reserve has no interest, no desire to help Trump whatsoever. And they clearly aren’t going to.

But the point being, I do think the deal is going to get done. You know, we, last week we said we expected the markets to rally. Four day work week actually turned out to be the strongest week for the S500 since November. So last week was a good week. We had a great internals week. It carried on again today. So we’re seeing what we expected from a bottom, from a pivot, which I think is what we’ve seen. Again, we’ve called last Monday’s lows the midday lows, which I said on the podcast that day that felt like a flush moment to me.

[00:05:05]:
Nasdaq has we’d open higher. Next thing you knew, midday we were down 400 on NASDAQ. I was looking at positions going, okay, what are we, are we screwing up here? I mean, frankly, that’s. And I caught myself right then. I’m like, dude, we’re an extreme oversold. The fear and greed is pure and greed index is at 9. It can’t go negative, right? Never has. How could it? We’re, we’re very near to a bottom.

So I had to, you know, I, we even Todd and I and Sam and Josh and I have to catch ourselves because that, that’s what he, that’s what, that’s what kind of a, an investing panic feels like. And that’s what I felt last Monday at midday. So our call from then has been because we had a strong reversal, higher markets, actually, some like half of the markets, small caps. NASDAQ finished higher on the day. Just light losses elsewhere. I think last Monday’s midday lows, that’s been our call. That’s going to be the lows of this. And so now we’re seeing every day any dip is being bought again.

That’s a, that’s a strong indicator of the market’s direction. Dips being bought, strong Smart Money hours today makes four in a row. Four in a row that we’ve seen a strong. Smart money hours today, again, was exactly the same thing. And then one of our favorites, if you notice at all, you’ve heard us talk about this indicator for a long time. The semis to the SPF 100, the relative strength indicator, the chart of the semis to SPF 100. I shared again this morning in our letter. Semis continue to lead higher.

There’s a trend line that’s been in place from the April 7 market lows of last year where the semis have not cracked that trend line as a, as a bullish ascending trend line. And the semis have not cracked it. They touched it last week. Right. But they still haven’t broken below it. Every time they get there, it’s like, everyone’s watching this. I. And I think this is because people are, frankly, I think this is the smartest money market tell as far as direction that I know of.

And again, this Goes back to just post QE when we first started following it. I hear a few other people talk about it, I don’t think nearly enough because again, I think it is the tell for market direction. And today, once again, the semis led higher today finished with gains of almost 1%. Today in the semis, again we finished up across the board. Dow Jones up 165, Nasdaq up 117, SB 500 up 29. And the Russ 2000 was up 4/10 of a percent. So right in line with the others. But again, semi slid higher.

[00:07:47]:
Nasdaq are behind. That is textbook bull market action. We saw it every day last week and we saw it again this week. So all we need is a bit of good news out of the Middle east and maybe there, maybe the Gulf state neighbors can, can get through to these folks so Trump doesn’t have to take that next step. Right. Also going to talk today about, I wrote this up this morning about the Trump economic miracle. You look, I think this gets lost in the shuffle. I even find myself forgetting about it.

Trump has deported, for just simple, simple words, deported over 2 million illegal aliens. And that’s happened in a year. And you may have seen this as well, the federal workforce, it’s the lowest number of federal employees in living memory. That’s 100 years on, just a hard number. It’s the lowest number of federal employees we have since April of 1966. So I bring that up now because we got the jobs report on Friday. Of course the market’s closed, but they, you know, nothing stops at jobs reports. They come out the first Friday every month and just blew everybody away.

I mean, truly was a stunning number. 178,000 new jobs added, estimates for like 60 something. So beat by over a hundred thousand jobs. That’s happening with 2 million illegals out of the economy. That’s happening with federal employees being laid off by the hundreds of thousands. You know, and again, that that means these numbers are only going to get better. This is a true free market enterprise economy. This is, this is what Trump talked about when he talked about a golden age for America, getting back to what always worked for us, right? Getting rid of regular costly regulations and regulators, truly American first.

This is how he’s fueling an economic boom. So it’s taken some time for this to happen because again, the economy is being radically redesigned. But now we’re starting to see the signs of it. And folks, if we’re right about this, and I think we are, anyone that short, this market or anyone that’s bearish on this market is going to get crushed for the rest of this year. I would, we don’t put too much, you know, faith or belief in any one set of jobs data. We just never have. But this was a good one. I think it’s going to continue and I think, I think the bulls are going to do really well the rest of this year.

[00:10:19]:
We’re, we’ve got some great data on that with you. We’ve been sharing that with you over the last week. Some great analytics. Again, perspective matters. Every 13 months, the markets had. This is going back to 1950. Every 13 months the markets have a 10% correction. We essentially just had that.

S 500 fell 9.6%. NASDAQ fell at the lows like 13%. So let’s call it 10% for simple math. We’ve now had that again. That happens every 13 months on average. And this is one of my favorite. I don’t hear anyone talking about this. And this is good data.

This is, this has been been fact checked going back to 1950. Midterm election years have commonly seen a correction. We just had one. It’s what happens next that matters because after midterm corrections, the average move higher over the next 12 months is 38% in the SPF 100. Right. So if this corrections, if last Monday’s midday lows are the lows, and if this correction is behind us again, we believe the answer is yes to both of those. Then we’re getting ready. We’re getting ready to go parabolic again.

We know what we need. We have a geopolitical shock. Right. We have a war happening. By the way, Axel, thank you for your email on this, Axel. Long term, long term subscriber. His father and I met at a conference many years ago. Well, hello.

Please, hello to your dear dad Hans for me. Send me a great email with some real concerns. And these are legitimate concerns. I don’t ever mean to be naive or Pollyanna about this. This could go, this shit could go sideways real fast, right? It absolutely could. And frankly, if we had another president behind besides Trump, I would be much more concerned than I am. Maybe I’ll, maybe I’ll regret that. But as we said from the very first day of this, I believe Trump has earned our respect and our trust when it comes to the use of the military.

Our military always earns that, that trust and respect again. This rescue is just insane. The way they pulled this off again, that’s what makes us different. We never leave a man behind. Just goosebumps right? All weekend looking at the pictures, listen to these stories being told. It’s what makes us who we are. It’s, it is, it’s, it’s, it’s, it’s, it’s, it’s why they’re the best of us, right? It really is. And I think once this is over with again, I don’t think it’s going to get worse.

I think we’re very close to the end here. But, yeah, yeah, things could go badly. Here’s why I think they’re not going to. We have certain tells that we look at in the markets. Have you seen defense stocks and what they’re doing? Because they’re getting battered. Everyone’s talking about it. Like, wait a minute, Trump’s trying to get even more money for the US military now. He’s looking for a $1.5 billion budget.

Okay, that’s a $200 billion increase of what it was again, you know, that’s insane. Insane. Ridiculous numbers, right? So why are defense stocks going down with all this money it’s about to be thrown at them, number one. Number two, if stuff’s going to really get bad in the Middle east and oil, that means oil probably could go to 15200 maybe, maybe higher. Then why are, why is oil in such severe backwardation? Why is December crude at 71? Right. When, when, when, when. Let me give you a current quote here. What are we at last trade here? 1.

Was it 112? Let me just do a quick double check on that. Apologies, I’ve got, got way too many screens open here. Systems actually running slow today. All right. Yes, the last trade on West Tex Intermediate. Yeah. 112, 66. So, so why are December futures at just over 71? That’s severe backwardation.

That tells you it’s hot, by the way, highly reliable indicator that oil prices are going lower, not higher. And the third, why are oil stocks, xle, Energy, etf, why is that being hit? All these are all tells that, that point to resolution. These are tells that point to this being, being behind us fairly soon. And look, you know, maybe it starts with a, with a, with a, with a pause. Maybe it starts with, I don’t think so. Who knows how this is going to end, right? As Trump said today, he’s looking at any number of possibilities. It may take a month, it may take two, it may take six months for this to all be worked out. But if you’re looking at the Strait of Hormuz, they’ve just had the most ships in the last 24 hours pass through the strait since.

Since this war started. Since the strait was shut down, I should say. Right. What was it, 15, 20 ships who went through today. It’s a big number. You know, again, we. We had been at 80 or so right before the war, so. But it’s still, it’s moving the right direction.

And, you know, I think that as far as this trace concerned. Oh, I wanted these, these prediction markets, right. Kalshi and Poly Market are now saying the betting odds are that the straight will be back to almost full capacity open in the near future. And it’s like a 60% chance. These, these betting sites are extraordinarily accurate. And that’s because this is happening with people’s real money. Right? This is not some poll or survey or what have you. So we’re seeing a lot of tells that we normally would look for that tell us that things are going to get better.

[00:15:56]:
And. And that’s exactly how I think it’s going to happen. I think it’s why the market’s been going up. What else today? Another. Another indicator. I think that the worst is behind us from the outbreak of this war. We noticed something in bitcoin. Now, if you follow bitcoin as closely as we have over the years.

Okay, we. First for your new. If you’re new here, welcome. Let me. It’ll sound like I’m patting myself on the back myself. And Tyler, maybe we are a little bit. Because we’ve nailed. We’ve nailed bitcoin.

We’re underwater right now, so understand if you just joined us. Sorry. I mean, we wish we weren’t down 25, 30%. We are. We. We react to the portfolio at 101. But we first recommended Bitcoin at 2000 in 2017. In two trades, we’ve got net gains of better than 2,200%, meaning a $10,000 investment in Bitcoin on our recommendation.

Following us on two trades only, not day trading. Two trades. That 10,000 will be worth more than $220,000. And what is that? Eight. Eight years. So we’ve had a good feel for it. We’ve been big, big fans of bitcoin and crypt. Not so much crypto as much because these are shit coins.

I have no interest in them. We do, of course, have another favorite which, if you’re with us here, you know what it is? It’s Tao, right? What. What a what, What a story. This. It is the future of cryptocurrencies. I am more. I can’t speak For Tyler, I, I think, I think I can’t speak for Loves Tao. Tyler is.

Tyler does he. Tyler does his homework. You know, he. He’s not as emotional as I am about things. He likes Tao. I don’t think he’s quite in the way. Sam and I, Sam and I are cost. We’re cost averaging.

Like every week we’re buying more. I’m just being. That’s what we’re doing because we think Tao, at this price, just over 300, is a. Just an absolute steal because, again, it’s the future of cryptocurrencies. I’m more excited about it than I was bitcoin. That’s just the way it is. So, again, you know, we’ll talk about another day. Again, if you’re with us here, you know, we’ve got a special report on Tao.

You can pull up in your member site to give you a little bit more from our initial recommendation on it. I always had about six months ago, I think. But from the outbreak of war, we were following bitcoin closely. Because if you remember, bitcoin and most momentum stocks started going down last October, November. That’s when they peaked. So that was a five FIFO trade. First in, first out. Well, guess when bitcoin came out of its funk at 59,700, the exact morning that the missiles began striking Iran, the Iranian generals and leadership that morning, Bitcoin hit59.7 and now has been only up from there.

[00:18:55]:
Right last trade. Bitcoin is now. Wow, just right. Right under. Right under 70,000. Now 69, 950 as I, as I record up three and a half percent of the day. So from 59. 7 to 69, let’s call it 70 for simple math, it’s a pretty good move higher again in war circumstances.

So first in, first out, we’re seeing, we’re seeing that action also in momentum stocks. But bitcoin for a long period was the market leader. It led in both directions, like the semis. We’ve actually talked about them as being another great tell. And so here we have it again. Two more tells. Semis leading higher. Bitcoin leading higher again.

These are the, these, these are the little things that we follow that just kind of. They add up to make us more and more confident. Confident, confident in our views on the markets. And of course, we do remain solidly bullish. Before I forget, and I heard from someone today that said, you know, you got my attention when you started talking about dot com, because I wasn’t old enough to this person was I wasn’t old enough then to invest through it. I was just a kid. And that story made a difference to me because I didn’t know. I didn’t have that.

[00:20:16]:
I didn’t, I didn’t have that experience. Well, I did. Right. So if you’re new here, 95 to 2000, right? I was in the last five years. I was in the business. I retired at the end of 1999 actually. And so went out on a bang. Right.

95 to 2000.com melt up began. It took about a year before we even knew what a.com was. Uh, and then we started seeing the, you know, the applications and the potential. The IPOs, of course, got our attention. It was really the IPOs, if I’m being honest, because that’s where we were just making so much money. A good buddy of mine at my firm, I was at Raymond James, that’s where I closed up my career. He, he ran the syndicate desk. So, you know, I mean, we were pretty good friends.

So, you know, it’s who you know. Right. And so my clients got all of these top IPOs, and I was jealous because, you know, we can’t put them in our own account. So my friends are getting them, like at least take me out for a meal, you know, buy me a drink or something. Because the last four deals I gave you just average gains of more than 150% on day one. That’s what was happening. The IPO market got so hot that, and this is. I’m working off memory, but I think we put this in the big bribe, or maybe it was in Crash for Prosperity.

Becoming wealthy in Age of Trunk, my previous book, this is pretty close. During the dot com melt up, there were between 450 and 500 companies went public that doubled on day one. Doubled on day one. And then, you know, again, they didn’t stop there, they kept going. Many of them did. There were more than 150 companies that went up 500% on day one. That’s what the dot com boom was for me. That’s what, that’s the memory that I have.

I also took three companies public during that time frame is a crazy five years. And I share that again now. So I can ask you a question. Does this innovation revolution feel anything like what I just shared about dot com, even remotely similar to dot com, what I just shared? Where are the IPOs? They’re coming. Maybe, you know, we were told SpaceX, etc. Are all coming. Well, that, that hasn’t happened yet. So The IPO boom is still in front of us.

Where’s the merger and acquisition boom that also took place because companies had so much cash, they got the same cash. Now Warren Buffett’s got $360 billion in cash. But he’s not the only one that’s got a lot of cash. Right. Again, this is one of the reasons we turn so bullish in 2022 because corporate America is so. They have almost no debt. They have more cash on hand, they have more cash to market cap than at any point in history. Excuse me, I’m sorry.

53 years. It’s 53 years as, as a, as a, as a, as a data set. Right. So the, the markets are buried in liquidity. Right. It’s an, as we said, it’s an ocean of liquidity. And this innovation revolution, which I’m going to tell you again, we got more data today on this. I’ve seen very smart people that, that, that I like to follow that agree with me on this.

So we’ve been saying this now against this 2022 that this innovation revolution is going to make.com look like a minor bull market. Remember, NASDAQ went up 575% over five years. But this is going to make that look like chump change. And we’re just now scratching the surface. Tyler’s greatest got, got this great data point. You know, if this is a runaway bull market, what does he call it? Euphoria, Euphoric LED bull market. This is the most bubble, if it’s a bubble bull market, this is the most boring bubble of all times because NASDAQ’s only up 120% or something. Again, 575%.com but it’s the combination that we cover this in and we talk about all the time.

[00:24:17]:
Of course, if you’re new here again, I’ll just mention this briefly. This is so about so much more than AI. Now AI. AI is probably the backbone of what’s taking place. But we’re talking about again, we call it an innovation revolution. We think it’s much more appropriate to call it that because this is going to affect every industry. It’s going to create new industries. Look what’s happening in space.

I believe that in the next decade we’ll have four to five new industries that don’t exist today. That’s the magic of what’s coming. That’s why we’re so bullish about the long term. We’re looking for again 5% GDP growth this year. 7, 8% by 2028, 10% by 2030. This bull market’s going to last well in the2030s. We’re on record saying this will be, this will be a generational bull market that won’t be topped. There won’t be a bull market like this for 100 years.

That’s just, we could be dead wrong. But we don’t think we’re going to be. And that’s why we’re so bullish now, because this bull market is only getting started again. And a correction like this, what a phenomenal opportunity to add to your favorite stocks, right? Like Tesla, which is getting battered. JP Morgan’s analyst came out today and price targets like 130. I mean this, this Elon Musk has said this person’s an idiot in the past. And, and, and clearly, clearly she is. But I’m gonna write up, I’ll write it up tomorrow on Tesla because there’s so many amazing things happening that are happening, you know, beginning this year, this month actually with Tesla.

I’ll write it up for tomorrow morning. But it’s, you know, it’s never fun watching stocks. You won’t go, go, go down. Especially one like Tesla, which we’ve called the most important. The, the really, if you’re gonna own one stock for the Millennium General, I’m looking at a Millennium Falcon. This, apparently a movie coming out with a Star wars movie just popped up my screen. If this is a generational bull market that we think it’s going to be, then again you get the point. We’re just getting started.

00:26:31]:
Before we get to the internals. You know, I, I’m going to write this up tomorrow morning. Tokenization, this is another big trend that’s taking place because of the innovation revolution that almost no one’s talking about. JP Morgan today put out a little blurb that they believe tokenized real world assets RWS. The market could grow to 13 trillion by 2030. 13 trillion by 2030. It’s in its infancy now. Again, just think about this.

Tokenization is going to put everything on the blockchain. Tokenization is going to get, we’re talking about real estate, housing, bonds, credit, anything and everything that can go on the blockchain if you choose for it to can be put on the blockchain. This gives you instant liquidity that doesn’t exist now. Right now you get a good banks. Why do you think JP Morgan is leading the way on this in the near future? If you own an asset, a home, real estate, who knows cars, what’s going to be on Collectibles, Sure. Right. You own assets that are on the black blockchain. If you choose to.

You can have instant liquidity, probably for a certain percentage, you know, whatever that is. Right. See how the rules are defined as we move forward. But it also gives you full transparency because if it’s on the blockchain, guess what? It’s legitimate. It exists, it’s real. It’s just like getting a bank loan, but it’s going to be instantaneous. Think about what that’s going to mean for the economy. And again, this is just getting started.

Okay, I’ll write that up a little bit tomorrow. Again, we talked about this in the big bribe in 2022. We saw this coming in and thought it was a major, this is a, this is a mega trend. Make no mistake about it. It’s a, it is a new industry. Right. They can call it fintech if they want to. This is a new industry.

So, yeah, very, very exciting. And again, investor sentiment is, is still, still in the dumper. Again. Fear Ingredient Index last week hit nine. As we told you over the last few days, short selling, you know, by, by CTA’s commodity trading advisors, hedge funds reach the highest level since. Since me, since the, since Terraf mania. And, and all because this is a geopolitical shock. That’s what this is.

Again, could it get worse? Sure. I don’t think it’s going to. I think the signs are there, as we’ve just talked about, that it’s not going to. Please, please God, Allah. Who? Trump’s. Trump’s Easter Morning Post. I mean, my goodness, are you kidding me? We know who he was talking to in that one. But anyway, they broke the mole with this guy.

No, dad, did you just see the video today at their Easter egg hunt they do at the, at the White House, Trump is sitting with a bunch of kids on the White House lawn and somebody’s got a microphone near him and he starts, oh, you want me to sign this? I can sign this. Well, you know, if the previous President Biden signed this, you know, he wouldn’t, because it would just be auto pin, you know, and he starts going off and these eight year old kids will look at him going, speak English, please. What are you talking about? I mean, again, they broke the MO. This guy, I happen to dislike 10% of what he does and I like about 90% that maybe that 10 is a little bit more on, on some occasions. But again, with respect to what we’re talking about right now with this war and ridding the planet of A terrorist state, which is what Iran’s been freeing their people. And again that’s why he’s not going to create war crimes. He’s not, he’s not, that’s not going to happen here. He’s trying to negotiate a deal.

[00:30:10]:
The markets see that. Right. So let, let’s just, let’s hope and pray that, that a very good deal gets done in the near future and this market can go truly parabolic because Q1 earnings start next week, the 14th. That is what we from today. Well if we’ll get the big banks, JP Morgan’s talked about them, Citi bank of America, Wells Fargo, they all start reporting next Tuesday and this is when front running of those earnings should be starting. Now have you seen the analyst estimates? They just keep. I wrote it up this morning thanks to Orion. Dietrich has some really good data on this.

Check this out. From the day the war began from, excuse me, just from, just from February 27th just before the war. Right. S&P 500 earnings estimates have been revised up 2.7% for this year, 2.8% for 2027 and 4.3% for the next three months. So analysts who you know, know these companies pretty well. Yeah, these guys are raising earnings estimates. It’s going the, the, the chart which again I shared this morning, Ford earnings estimates is, is, is going parabolic and again I think that’s another tell. So we got a lot of good tells we’re looking at here.

All right, let’s get to the internals here. Good internals today again not quite 2 to 1 advanced decline. I’ll put it simple math. Both NYC and NASDAQ 1.7 to 1 positive we had again these are, this is a win all the way around. 67.1% of volume. NASDAQ 61.1% volume for NYSE. And we had about 30 more stocks hitting a 52 week high and 52 week low. Again that’s the, that’s the trifecta.

[00:31:58]:
All three positive across the board. We saw the same thing in our sector watch also strong today. A sector’s higher, 4 lower. Not a lot in any other. We didn’t have a single index up, up or down more than 1%. But again energy bounced back today. Consumer discretionary up 8. 10 of percent.

Financials up, tech up again. Everything essentially up today. Only utilities were down a bit. Utilities had been up for nine straight days. I think that’s another tell. That’s a tell for interest rates. Now the ten year was up a bit today. But when the utilities, the largest borrowers of money in this country, Utilities, when they’re going up nine straight days, they’re telling you that interest rates are going down.

[00:32:41]:
That’s, that’s, that’s my read of that. And again, that’s how our portfolio is constructed. We are an interest rate sensitive groups that, that are going to go, that are going to go lower throughout this year and next year. Right. Our call remains 3 1/2% for the 10 year by year end with the 5, less than 5% yields on the interest rates on the 30 year mortgage. Okay. And by the way, over the weekend, if you saw this, Kevin Warsh’s hearing for the Senate Finance Committee got scheduled. Now, Thom Tillis, the Senate Banking Committee, these committees I get, Thom Tillis is in charge of, the one that actually will agree to push a guy through to a full confirmation with the House and Senate.

Right. Thom Tillis has said until this lawsuit against Jay Powell and the Fed is done away with, he’s just not going to allow Kevin Warsh to go through. So I thought it was interesting that Wash has now been added to the schedule to have his hearings. Maybe, maybe that’s real progress. Again, we’ve not heard any shit talking from Trump to Powell which is this is the only time in 75 years that interest rates haven’t gone lower during a war. And, but Trump’s not talking about that. No, Scott Bess is not talking about that. Jay Powell’s not shit talking Trump.

I think I, I think they’re sending messages each other. Let’s, let’s get along. Right. I think the lawsuit is going to be dropped. I think that Kevin Wash is going to be our new fetch here in mid May. That’s because Trump knows it’s most important to get Jay Powell out of office so we can get rates normalized. And, and, and then watch this again without a war and with race falling. We already know inflation is going to continue to fall.

That’s the power of disinflation from the innovation revolution. Then again, we’re looking at a market that’s going to rock and roll. We’ve got a long way to go, folks, long ways to go. What else today? Commodity Watch, very quiet today. Gold essentially unchanged. Silver unchanged. We had, we had gains this morning. They kind of dissipated a little bit.

[00:34:53]:
A gold last is 4,676. Silver, 7,281. Copper today up just a little bit at 560 a pound. Copper’s held in well because the global economy is doing just fine, thank you. Very much. By the way, again nobody talking about this and I’ve heard no one talk about this. There’s going to be a fiscal dividend from this war for the US Economy. Again that’s just another form of stimulus.

So that’s something else to add growth. Again our 5% GDP target. Again very confident on that call this year. I don’t know anyone else is making that call or we think it’s going to have. We said first quarter but then the war happened. First we had the shutdown right that hit fourth quarter. Now we’ve had this war. But again I think, I think at some point I’m going to now say by the third quarter 5% GDP growth once the war is over.

Look at above crude oil last trade 11261 that’s up 1% of the day. And finally the day again Bitcoin last trade now 69,920 up 3.4% on the day. It’s a, it’s a good looking FIFO trade here. Okay folks, that’s it for the day. Hope you had a great day and even better night. We’ll see back here again tomorrow after the close.