In today’s episode,Tyler recaps a high-powered day for the markets as we close in on the end of 2025. Tyler dives into the latest economic data, including a standout Q3 GDP report and bullish trends pushing key indexes to all-ti ...
Don’t look back because the market is closed. Good Tuesday afternoon everyone. Tyler Herriage here with you for today’s VRA Investing podcast. Hope you all had a fantastic day out there today. It was a good day for our markets. Today saw a number of exciting factors, but first and foremost, I apologize. Just getting an audio podcast out here today as I’m prepping to be on Wayne Allen Roots show tonight, War Zone, this fantastic program hit program.
Really excited to be on with Wayne tonight here. So we’ll get this in quickly tonight. You can find it everywhere though it’s the main podcast on Gateway Pundit, so if you go to their website, you’ll see the live link there. Or if you happen to miss it, you can find it on Rumble as well. Search War Zone there. Or you can also find it on Wayne’s Twitter feed or X feed at Real Wayne Roots. So we hope you can join us tonight. I’ll be on at 6:30pm Eastern Time, 5:30 Central.
[00:01:09]:
Really excited to kind of wrap up the year here with Wayne and what a phenomenal year it has been for our markets. And as we see it, the best is really still yet to come. Even though there’s only a few trading sessions left in 2025, we think they could be very explosive to the upside. We’ve got the Santa Claus rally which begins tomorrow. I’ll cover a little bit of that here today. Then this morning we got back some fantastic economic data really blowing away estimates here. I’ll get to that more in just a second. I’m sure you’ve likely heard it by now, but with that economic news help take us to all time highs today in our markets, some of our commodities, we’ll cover them all here today.
But let’s go ahead and jump right in with this economic data because this morning we got it back a little late and this is, you know, backwards looking data, but still came in much better than anticipated. And that was Q3 GDP. Now I know you’re probably saying, Tyler, we’re almost done with Q4 here. Well, once you hear these numbers and that Q4 is typically even better than Q3 typically speaking, then yeah, you’ll get where I’m going with it. Q3 GDP today came in at an annualized rate of 4.3%, crushing estimates of 3.3%. This is now, you know, the best, I believe back to back quarter or best quarter period, maybe even since the third quarter of 2023. So in over two right at two years there, exactly what we’ve been calling for here and this still is the early innings of the Trump Economic Miracle 2.0. This is something I’m sure Wayne and I will dive into tonight on his show.
He just released a piece yesterday, you know, his Merry Christmas to America last, where he nailed a lot of the same topics that we’ve been going over here with you as well. And that is, you know, first and foremost that this is the Trump Economic Miracle 2.0 led by, you know, his efforts in deregulation, the one big beautiful bill which is going to lower taxes. And from all over though, you know, we’re seeing in order to even pass new regulations, you have to do away with 10 existing regulations first newer members of the SEC and FTC which should help approvals process for M A activity which we’re seeing a big pickup in as well. So a lot of bullish factors from that which really haven’t even hit this market. They start to hit this market on January 1st. Remember, we’re only 11 months in to Trump’s second term here. We expect year two to be explosive. And Kip covered this this week as well.
[00:04:10]:
Don’t we need it to be if Republicans want to have a chance in the midterms, economic growth needs to be good. Stock market needs to perform well. I mean it certainly doesn’t hurt, right? People feel a lot better going to the voting booth though when their 401ks are at all time highs. But outside of the political situation, we’re in the midst of an innovation revolution. We called this during Biden’s presidency. So no, this isn’t just a Trump thing either. You know, for any of you out there who may not be the biggest fans of his, you know, hey that, that’s all right. There’s still so many bullish factors that are specifically because of him that we can’t deny.
But then also that these companies are in a cycle of innovation here that we think is really just in the early innings. You know, often we compare this time period to the 1996 to 2000. Despite.com melt up we expect this to be that on steroids with companies that are delivering real world use cases for many different products that we’ve never seen before. Of course AI is at the the tip of the, of the on the cutting edge of what we’re talking about here. But what that means for so many different industries, whether it’s medical research, investing, insights research as a whole, you know, manufacturing, all, all. I mean I go into so many more of them here. That is just one facet of what makes us so bullish here right now? And of course innovation leads to deflation. One point I forgot for the Trump economic miracle that really helps on the inflation front as well, is bringing down energy costs.
Trump’s deregulatory policies, drill baby, drill policies will really start to kick in in 2026 as well. We’ve already seen oil prices come down significantly since he entered office. We expect that to continue, which is a main contributor to inflation. Whether you’re shipping something or all kinds of everything is affected by energy, the price of energy. Finally, one of our third major topics we’ve talked about here recently is the ocean of liquidity that we see in front of this market. A lot of these we’ve talked about for a long time here. I want to check my notes on one. Well, okay, so back to the ocean of liquidity here.
[00:06:56]:
I mean we’ve got record high levels in M2 money supply or yeah, we just hit a new all time high there. Close to $8 trillion in money market accounts. If yields are heading lower that those dollars in money market accounts are going to be leaving in search of a higher return. And when the, the stock market continues to just blow the doors off of everybody’s expectations, I mean, wow, people are gonna. That’s when FOMO really kicks in for the market. Big one we’ve talked about here is a 35 trillion in home equity debt ratios for companies and individual balance sheets are at fantastic levels here. Very healthy. I’ll get to some of the sentiment side of things on the consumer here in a second.
But this isn’t just locally here in the US this is globally. We have an ocean of liquidity that’s about to hit this market. And one factor back to GDP here. Again, it’s going to rally. The stock market is getting up to 5% GDP growth in 2026, likely in the first quarter. We said first half of 2026. I mean after a 4.3% return for GDP, you can see how we could quickly, we’ll see what Q4 comes in at and then, you know, Q1 of next year. We also got some inflation numbers back here, you know, similar to the CPI data that we got recently.
Maybe not complete numbers as the market would argue, still, you know, well below 3% here. PCE coming in at roughly 2.8, 2.9 depending on where you’re looking. So a little bit hotter than expected. Again, still below 3 there. Sorry, taking a sip of water again, nothing to be concerned about. On the PCE front, we see inflation heading lower Significantly from here. And really who can trust government data at the end of the day under Trump, under Biden, you know, really doesn’t matter to us here. It’s tough to trust government data.
[00:09:20]:
We like to look at maybe some more independent sources like truflation, where we see, you know, the latest reads on inflation well into the low twos as well. So fantastic readings here on the economic front today. And then to the consumer strength for everyone talking about these consumer sentiment reports, you know, at some of the lowest levels since the financial crisis, those kinds of things, you know, it’s sentiment reports are a great tool, but they don’t tell you everything that we need to know. Just a great tool, another indicator, you know, to keep an eye on. But it doesn’t matter what the consumer saying. It matters what they’re doing. We just got, you know, visas. U.S.
Holiday spending report. Retail spending rose 4.2% year over year. 73% of those purchases were in store, 27 online. Online sales rose by 7.8% year over year. So these are numbers again, adding to consumer spending. Seems to be a lot more bullishness in the consumer than the sentiment reports are letting on right now. So it’s looking like it’s shaping up to be another fantastic quarter to come here. It’ll be fun to see the GDP numbers, think for Q4.
Looking forward to that next year as well. And then back to the sentiment side of things. We’ll take a little bit of a look for our market here today. But that should, I mean those retail reports should help a lot of the consumer names and consumer rationary socks did do well today. But for our markets today, we actually saw some bearish sentiment at the open this morning early in the session as the put call ratio opened just below 1 at a 0.99. Spent the entire day above a 0.8 as well. You finished in the lower 0.8, but still leaning bearish on that front. Sorry, one more drink of water.
[00:11:23]:
You know, you can tell in this low liquidity time of year where, you know, bulls, the normal people out there are out trying to enjoy the holidays while the bears will take every shot that they can at this market. But it wasn’t enough today. And one other factor here, if I had a screen share, you know that I would be showing this one. The fear and GRE greed index is now finally back into greed mode here. So people are starting to get bullish on this market. And you know, we’re contrarians here. We see reports this morning a lot. I believe no Analyst had negative expectations, not, none of them were big expectations to the upside for the S and P.
But I believe it was zero negative expectations for 2026. You know, that does start to get our attention there. When 100 of analysts or economists are on one side of an issue, we, we like to take the other side of that there. But again, we see this as early stages bullishness, just like with the fear and greed, just like with the aaii. You know, we won’t really start to get worried until we see big pullbacks. And these sentiment indicators remain at extreme greed, remain extreme bullishness. Because there’s a big difference between saying you’re bullish and actually being bullish, being positioned in a bullish manner. You know, I think a lot of these people still have their cash on the sidelines in the money market accounts that are at all time highs.
So I would say they’re hesitantly bullish. If we got a 2 to 3% pullback right now, we’d be right back into extreme fear mode on the fear and greed index. Right back in to far more bears than bulls in the AII sentiment survey. So again, this should be the fun stage of the bull market where the early believers in it who’ve been positioned, getting positioned continue to monthly dollar cost average when is appropriate. Those believers should be rewarded in this time period. So as contrarians here, to go back to that, I would say these analysts aren’t bullish enough. And that’s the contrarian take here, is that these, these returns this year are going to far out outpace what these analysts are looking for. Again, year two, first full year coming up really of the Trump Economic Miracle 2.0.
[00:14:01]:
A major stepping stone. A huge amounts of announcements coming up for the innovation revolution in 2026. Folks, buckle up. We think it’s going to be a very, very fun year. And after all, don’t we deserve it to some extent. Over the last seven years since 2018, we’ve had five bear markets where the average stock has lost between 30 to 60% inside of a few weeks. Now we have called this, you know, a bull market since 2022, but we essentially got to those levels even earlier this year in tariff mania. Those kinds of pullbacks really only happen on average about every 18 months.
So we’re just nine, 10 months away. Eight, nine, really from the bottom of the last major pullback like that. So we should have a ways to run in this market in a very fun period ahead of us. I had one other point I wanted to make here. Sorry If I’m a little over the place today, I’m not in my usual desk here. So getting used to it before my interview tonight. Okay, so not on the sentiment side, but let’s go ahead and dive into our markets and I’ll get into this next point which is man for hitting all time highs today in, in one of our major indexes at least and some good runs we’ve seen in our other major indexes and favorite sectors. We’re really nowhere in the ballpark of extreme overbought.
Not a single one of our indicators is even overbought yet. We might be getting there on, on fast stochastics, which is our shortest term momentum oscillator, but we are certainly not there yet. So we had the NASDAQ leading the way today up 57% finishing at its highs of the day. So exactly what you want to see from this group and the semis leading the way up almost 1% for SMH, the semiconductor ETF, the S&P 500 hit our all time high today. Excuse me, finished at its highs of the day as well. Didn’t quite get to the intraday all, all time highs but that is a record closing high. Its second close ever above 6900 at 6909 again closing all time high there today. Also we had the Dow Jones higher on the day, not by a whole lot, 16%.
[00:16:30]:
And the small caps were our laggard on the day. Yields were higher on the session. You know, maybe a little bit to do with that inflation number, maybe more so to do with the fact that they’ve had an awful year for yields. As was our call from the beginning of the year. We said from when Trump gets inaugurated to the end of the year, both yields were going to fall and the dollar was going to fall. We’ve gotten both of those things this year. For anyone who thinks yields, you know, are still too elevated, we would agree with you here. But one step at a time, right? We just, just saw a year yields aren’t huge, massive quick moving vehicles and the 10 year yield fell over 12% even at today’s levels.
That’s not to of where we were on the year. We expect yields to continue moving lower in 2026. But again what we really liked from all of our major indexes today, well number one, you know, S and P and Nasdaq finishing at their highs of the day, exactly what you want to see. But for the S and P to close at an all time record high and not be at extra even at overbought levels really yet is pretty impressive. This tells us we’ve got a lot more room to run. We have a whole lot more bullish sentiment to get into this market. And again tomorrow we start the Santa Claus rally, which is the last five trading days of the year into the first full two trading days of the following year. So we’ll wrap that up just after New Year.
So that begins tomorrow. Should be a good time frame for us here. I believe the last two years we didn’t see a Santa Claus rally. And as far back as this data goes, that’s never happened three times in a row. So hopefully not this time either. You know, knock on wood for that one. Then we’ll get into the January, the really the January trifecta is what they call it. Kip talked about this yesterday as well.
[00:18:23]:
It’s the Santa Claus rally, the last five trading days in first two of the new year, the first five trading days of the new year. So separate indicator, the first five days and then the month of January as a whole. When all three of those are positive, the market is higher over the next year, I mean with incredible average returns as well. So we want to see that coming up. Stay tuned. We’ll be reporting on that here. Next up, let’s take a quick look at our internals on the daytoday. Not the numbers that you would have wanted to see on a positive day like today.
Even earlier in the session when our major indexes had gone positive, we were, we were mostly negative here and we finished mostly negative as well. No big beats or anything, no two to one outperformance for the negatives. But still you would have liked to see positive numbers on a positive day for both the NYSE and the nasdaq. We had more declining stocks than advancing stocks. Again, not by a whole lot. Almost just shy of 3 to 1 positive though for more 52 week highs than lows for the NYSE. Did come in negative though for the NASDAQ. Finally, volume, you know, narrowly negative, but it was negative on the nyse and the NASDAQ actually had positive volume, you know, until we got into the last hour or two of trading.
Again, not what you want to see, but no terrible beats here. Next up, taking a look at our sectors on the day today. One second. Let me get a quick refresh of these screens. All right. We finished with 7 out of our 11s P500 sectors higher on the day today we were led by Communication Services which was one of its highest readings. Highest levels in roughly two and a half months late September. So we want to see kind of the breakout continue here followed by tech and energy.
[00:20:18]:
And one more thing, I’ll say not only to our major indexes but for our favorite sectors as well. And for a lot of stocks, we’re seeing some really constructive action in these charts. Yes, it’s always the best to see fresh all time highs. But what we’re seeing is a short term period of higher highs and higher lows from the recent highs and recent lows really looking like a coiling spring for this market. Very constructive looking charts, a consolidation and coiling before the next blast off move higher which could be beginning as soon as tomorrow. Our laggards on the day were consumer staples healthcare and industrial. So no real worries there. Those are more of our defensive sectors.
One more all time high here on the day was from the financials. So when the, when the big banks are performing well, you certainly take it because they finance so many of these projects. If you’re looking at a big IPO boom coming up, which we still haven’t gotten that stage of this bull market, if you look back on the 90s when all the IPOs were taking place, it was phenomenal for the bank stocks as well. So we might not be big fans of the big banks but we still want to see them performing well. Finally here for today, we’ll go ahead and wrap this up again. Please join us tonight on War Zone with Wayne Allen Root. I’ll be on at 6:30pm Central or excuse me, 6:30pm Eastern. 5:30 Central.
All right. So more all time highs here today. Actually Ed Yardeni just this week raised his price target for gold from 5,000 by the end of 2026 to 6,000 and then 10,000 by the end of the decade. Remember, we’re still looking for 15,000. Is our long term price target for gold now at $4,514 an ounce at getting up to that level for the first time ever today. Next up, silver also an all time high. Big move up 4 1/2% to 71, 666 an ounce. Copper higher on the day as well.
[00:22:26]:
That’s a chart I, I need to run here. Let’s take a quick look. You know, not far away here from the high in July of this year. We’re now at $5.56 a pound up roughly 1% on the day. The high we’re looking for is $5.93 a pound. Oil slightly higher on the day up 810 of 1% to $58.47 cents a barrel. And finally here for today, bitcoin off the lows of the day. But now, after a quick refresh, a little bit off the highs of the day as well at 87, 5, 8, $3 a bitcoin, folks.
Hope you can join us tonight on War Zone. Again, you can find it on Gateway Pundit on Wayne’s X feed. We hope. We love to have you with us there. But yeah, until that’s about it for today’s podcast is all I have time for here today. Hope you have a great rest of your evening. A fantastic and very merry Christmas, folks. We’ll see you back here tomorrow possibly for the closed live.
Talking to Kip about that one. We got a half day of trading tomorrow and then Thursday off for the Christmas holiday. So Merry Christmas, everyone. Hope you have a great one.
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Welcome back to the VRA Investing Podcast! Today, Kip Herriage takes us through a down day in the markets, driven by renewed tensions in the Middle East and rising interest rates. He’ll break down why the VRA system remains bullish, but just shy of a perfect score, and what’s needed to push it to new highs. Kip Herriage discusses the interconnectedness of the housing market and interest rates, his bold GDP forecasts, and why he remains unwaveringly optimistic about both the economy and the stock market—even as geopolitical risks linger. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.
