In today's episode, Tyler breaks down a historic day in the markets, with major indexes like the Nasdaq and S&P 500 closing at all-time highs after a powerful rally. After weeks dominated by fear and pullbacks, the markets have turned the corner in breathtaking fashion. The Nasdaq has posted 12 straight days of gains, its longest winning streak since 2009! Tyler also shares insights on why now is still a great time to be invested, the lessons history teaches us about bull markets, and strategies to build real wealth.

Don’t look back because the market is closed. Good Thursday afternoon everyone. Tyler Herriage here with you for today’s VRA Investing Podcast. Hope you all had a fantastic day out there today. If you’re watching the markets, it was kind of tough to have a bad day out there today. We’ll dive into all of the reasons why. A quick hint, as you’ve likely seen by now, all time highs. Kip talked about this yesterday when we got the first round of all time highs from the S and P we had and the semis we had.

Some others, big ones joined the group today as you likely seen, but I’ll hold on to it for a second. Got some great charts share with you on that front and to just really describe what a rally it has been. Yeah, it’s going to be a fun podcast today. Got some great analytics for that as well. We’ll of course cover our market internals, our sectors, what we’re seeing leading here, continuing to lead I should say, and of course our V Commodity Watch. But before I dive into today’s action, I’ll also be on Grant C. Cinchfield’s podcast tomorrow. It’s fantastic podcast, but there couldn’t be a better time to be on.

[00:01:29]:
Going back to my previous appearance appearances in the midst of this pullback and Kip’s appearances in the midst of this pullback for stocks, major indexes and all the fear that we’ve seen over the last few weeks, which is natural when we’re talking about the potential for war. But the fear ran to extremes. We saw the fear and greed index get down to single digits. We’ll cover a little bit on sentiment today as well. I’m looking forward to getting into all of this and more with Grant because it has been such a rip roaring move higher from all of the fear that we saw from this pullback and Kip talked about this a lot this week to only 10 sessions. Back to all time highs now 11 and we’ve got some 12 on the screen that I’ll cover today. We’ll get into all of that more. Wow.

It’s going to be a fun podcast today. I’ll try and keep it brief for you. We did a long deep dive into the analytics during the pullbacks. This is the time, you know, maybe you want to take off a little early on this Thursday. We won’t hear we’re going to be locked into this market because it is that bull market and we’re so early in it. Now is the time to stay locked in. Of course You’ve got to celebrate your victories but keep your head about you because this bull market is just beginning in our view. We’ll see some of the reasons for that why here today.

[00:03:02]:
So looking forward to being on Grant’s show tomorrow. We’ll talk about some of those reasons, I’m sure as well. And you can find it on his X feed on Rumble. It is live, 12pm Eastern, 11am Central. Believe that that’s correct. You’ll see it around that time. It’s always, you know, so good to be on with Grant. We have fantastic conversations.

So thank you Grant for having us on. It’s been fantastic getting to know him. Just a true American patriot who truly cares about everyday Americans. Yes. Been a pleasure getting to know him and looking forward to that conversation tomorrow. So hope you can join us and not the replay is all always available as well. All right. Well without further ado, let’s go ahead and jump right into our markets because what else do you really want to dive into other than that on a day with all time highs? Where to begin? Because there were a lot and like I said, it’s been basically 12 days in a row of gains for the semis and for the Nasdaq.

[00:04:11]:
I’ve got I’ll pull that chart up here in just a second. But really a historic move that we’ve seen from our major indexes. Let’s go ahead and we’ll jump right into it. All right, first one up here on the Nasdaq which did close for the first time above 24,000 today. Incredible. Can’t wait to show you that chart. But this is from earlier today actually, but on track for its 12th and it did complete its 12th positive day in a row for the longest winning streak since 2009. But here’s what matters most is not the rally we just saw.

Of course it’s great. Incredible rally. 12 days to get back to all time high from all of of this that we saw. We’ll go over that in a second too because in some areas it has been longer and we’ve still got to get back to all time highs. They didn’t quite feel like you’re out of the woods yet. So what we see next is even more important. And what do you see after 12 day positive streaks? It’s a little blurry on here so I’ll try to read this for you. But if you can see it down here, I’m not going to be able to zoom in.

Well with this screen. All you need to know 12 months later, after a 12 day positive streak. The NASDAQ is higher 100% of the time one year later in every other instance. So pretty incredible. With average returns. I had to zoom in there 19.8%. That would be a phenomenal year. We think this bull market has the potential to outdo that.

[00:05:51]:
And so before I get to our next chart here of the Nasdaq, because I’m not going to do the full breakdown like I’ve done in the past comparing this to the dot com era. But for anyone who’s missed out on this move, we talk about it often at all time highs. It’s not too late to get involved. From the 2022 bear market lows when this bull market began, the Nasdaq is up roughly 140%. Sounds fantastic. It is fantastic. Great returns. But that’s over four years.

During the five year dot-com melt up, the NASDAQ rallied 580/%. So we’re nowhere near the bubble that everyone’s talking about, right? That’s put it in perspective here. These are pretty normal returns in some instances by some metrics. So that being said, when you look back on the chart of the big breakouts like 1995-2000, you’re seeing a lot of similar action to we’ve had today. During 1995-2000, there were no less than five pullbacks of 10% or more along the way, all of which were V shaped recoveries. We had a technical bear market during that timeframe, also a V shaped recovery. CIB talks about this on his podcast yesterday as well. But we’ve seen it under under Trump a number of times.

[00:07:14]:
Tariff mania Covid 2018 multiple 10% I’m missing a few there. Multiple 10% pullbacks or more which had a quick V shaped recovery to all time highs. Really the only bear market in recent memory was under Biden the 11 months or so of 2022. And it wasn’t fun, that’s for sure. The market felt, you know, well over 20. But the average stock, that bear market began sooner and lasted longer. The G the losses were much worse on the individual stock level during that year of 2022. Again, that’s when we published the big bribe.

Everyone thought we were crazy at the time. Now here we are and nothing has changed in our view. We set it the whole pullback that we were using it as a buying opportunity. That’s why it’s so important to have a game plan for when things like this happen. You don’t panic, sell, you keep your width, value we were adding to positions, buying positions. And that’s exactly what we talked about here on the podcast as well. So if you haven’t already joined us, come on. We’ve got a free trial going on right now, 14 days absolutely free@vra letter.com we’d love to have you with us.

Full access to everything we have to offer going back to the the when Kip started the vra. You see all of our past picks, all of our current picks, all of that for free. We, we give it away for free because we believe you’ll see the value while you, while you’re there. And again, if you don’t, then hey, no, no, no hard feelings at all. You can cancel anytime. But we’d love to have you with us. Come give it a shot, see what you think. We think you’ll be with us for a long time.

[00:08:58]:
We truly love what we do here at the vra and we’re so grateful for the opportunity to wake up every day and to serve individual investors to help the mom and pop out there to beat the market year in and year out. Because Wall street has had the leg up on the middle class on every level of America for decades. But there’s never been a better time to take control of your own financial future than right now. There’s never been more tools at the disposal of retail investors than there are right now. Commission free trading. Take advantage of it, right? There are so many great products and opportunities within this market. Even if you don’t come and join us here at the vra, you have to be invested in stocks. And if you, if you have the ability to diversify that you want to own stocks, you want to own real estate, you want to own precious metals, gold and silver.

The physical, right. And if you don’t feel comfortable with that, there are some great equipment, ETF products, but you have to be very careful with those similar to Bitcoin. You do want to own Bitcoin as well. There are some great ETF products out there. But do your due diligence for gold. You don’t want to own like a GLD. There are plenty of great options out there of ETFs that actually back their market cap with physical gold. So find a great product out there like that.

[00:10:28]:
But in this environment where many people are afraid of inflation, we don’t think inflation is the issue. Part of the issue, we’ll call it an issue. But to the system, it’s a feature, not a flaw. And that is the fact that the money printer is still Running, we just found out M2 money supply, another all time high, up about 4.6% year over year about what we saw from the previous month’s reading as well. Which means if you’re not earning at least four and a half percent on your cash every year, you’re losing money. So you have $100 stuffed away under your mattress just a year from now. The purchasing power of that hundred dollars is now $96 versus the stock market. Even if you just get average yearly returns, you’re looking at between 8, 10, 12%.

And that’s just in a standard ETF here, the VRA from the 2022 bear market lows, we’ve done roughly 37% per year on average. So come and join us. Again, we’re passionate about what we do, not bragging in any way about it. We’ll let the results speak for themselves. And we want to help people at the end of the day and that is what makes us different. We have no conflicts of interest on our positions. We do exactly what we talk about in our updates and exactly the trades you see in our portfolio is exactly what we own. It’s exactly what we’re doing with our money.

No conflicts of interest, full disclosure about everything. So again, come and join us there. Again, we love what we do. We have a great community here. We have a lot of fun together too. So, you know, come and join us. We’d love to have you here with us. So to wrap up here finally, we’ll come full circle if we can for the nasdaq.

I do want to share this chart here. And they get a quick sip of water. All right, as you can see, all time high and as you saw from the other charts as well, I mean, just what a move higher there and I’m zoomed in here. Okay, this is a nine month time frame specifically for one reason that we’ve seen this resistance level a few times now about at the, about the 24,000 mark here where we broke out for the first time last year. It was an intraday. You can see there 24,019 all time high, but it closed at 23,763. Now we got, I believe we got even closer on this day closing wise, but still didn’t even get above 24,000 that day. Intraday, really, it just says that in the for round number there.

[00:13:15]:
Now today we broke through 24,000 and stayed there with authority. This is what you want to see in a breakout. Not only did we close above 24,000, it closed above 24,100 24,102 new all time closing high here 4 the NASDAQ. Now to the exciting part. Okay. Because of course you want to be a part of the whole move. You know, be in it from there, sell it there, buy back there, be a part of that sounds great. But so often time in the market is better than timing the market.

Now we do have our tools that we use to time the market in specific sectors, in specific trades around this. But you want exposure long term as well. And the long term thinking is what makes all the difference in the world. And again, why we have the VRA investing system. I feel like I had one more point here. Yeah, I wasn’t going to do this, but we’ll go and I just want to see a few of the recent other V shaped recoveries right for you from here after. Okay, this is what I was going to talk about. Perfect.

[00:14:27]:
Actually. I’m so glad I zoomed out. Once you break out of those resistant points like I talked about here at the 24,000 level into blue sky territory, oftentimes you will see, you know, kind of a double top, something like that like we saw here. Once you get above it again, that’s when the party really begins. That’s when the real gains start to come into this market. If you go back to the 1995-2000.com melt up, you know what, why not? I’m doing quickly here and I’ll move through some of our other stuff quicker on the day because I think this is so important especially for, for our newer listeners. If you haven’t seen this chart yet, perspective matters so much in the market and gives you the ability to have a level head when everything around you seems like it’s falling apart. Whether it’s the Iran conflict, you know, because it wasn’t just the Iran conflict, it was the straight being blocked, oil prices going crazy, software names are getting destroyed.

Just a few months ago, AI was going to take your job, but a few months before that it was an AI bubble. All of these are legitimate concerns and when you take each one individually, you can make them seem very scary on their own. The problem with that approach again is perspective. And so often what you see from the fear mongers out there, people who really don’t have your best interest in heart in the markets or maybe they do and misguided. There’s plenty of that as well. And believe me, I’ve had, we’ve all had our ups and downs and lessons throughout our careers. But regardless of what the conflict is, again, tariff mania. To have that perspective, to have that historical knowledge, it can absolutely be a game changer.

[00:16:16]:
Somebody asked this recently, you know, how did you, you know, keep a level head throughout all of this? Some people sold months ago, and that might have been a good call before the pullback. Maybe they bought it back. Great for them. I hope they did. But how do you have the confidence in the market when it does seem like everything’s falling apart and it is looking back on history? So let’s take a look here, because you can see the pullbacks and you see the move higher. This is the 1995, 2000, approximately 580% returns along the way. And you can tell a big part of that took place at the end. So this is the technical bear market along the way, multi month, right? You lost a good amount of a year’s worth of gains.

That never feels good, right? But if you’d held on through it, that’s how you take the real advantage of a powerful and structural bull market. Again, this bull market has the ability to exceed this, not only in size, we believe it will be bigger than 580%, but in length. Kip talked about that a lot this week. Originally, we said through 2030. And we keep moving those time frames back and bumping other time frames up, like GDP growth, earnings growth, expected valuations for companies. There’s so many expected, exciting things ahead of us, not only for this market, for the economy, for our way of life. And that that excitement is contagious. So we hope that we can spread some of that here on our podcast throughout the day.

[00:17:52]:
That optimism that when you hear all of the bad news so often, when you take those stories to kind of wrap that point up as well, they overweight the bad news and underweight the good news to their detriment, to missing out on huge moves higher, to huge opportunities in their life. Because it doesn’t. It applies to more than just investing. There are a lot of lessons you can take throughout life. One of my favorite investing lessons even are just sayings about investing lessons. And as you get more experience in the market, and this is a long game, you know, if you bought now and we have a pullback and you feel dumb because of it, don’t give up, stay with it year in and year out, it’s going to be a lifelong tool and a lifelong learning experience. When you approach it from that way, it becomes a lot more fun. And the parts you don’t know become less daunting as well.

Oh, you know I’ll get to there eventually. And then a few years in, you start to see the things you learned a couple years ago click into place. Right. You know, I’m still along my journey. I’m fortunate enough to have a wonderful mentor and my father here and, and lessons from his mentors on top of that. So it’s a huge blessing for sure, and we want to pass that along, as I talked about for individual investors, but to the optimism side, I think there’s no better way to say it than, than who’s in office right now. I’m not. I believe this is from Trump’s inauguration.

[00:19:28]:
Kip shared this in an update recently. We do do it every now and then, but, man, it really does. This isn’t a contagious attitude because if we start thinking bigger and we start asking questions of our existing government, things do start to change. It’s like when you looked at San Francisco in California just a few years ago when Xi Jinping came to visit and Gavin Newsom cleaned up the city and a whole lot of people, that was a, a curtain lifting kind of moment. You mean to tell me you could have done this the whole time? You just did it for an authoritarian leader from another country? And then Gavin Newsom says, oh, yeah, don’t you clean up your house before you have guests over? So, okay, so it was a willpower problem the whole time because you cleave your house clean all the time, too. You don’t have to live in a pigsty. That was San Francisco. So when you see stuff like that, it really makes you question everything.

Of, we see problems and the left so often, you know, so all of them have gone so far left. But at the end of the day, if you talk about the outcome that both parties want, oftentimes you end up in a similar place. It’s how you get there, where the differences are and that holds people back. But it’s a willpower issue of actually getting there and not debating and getting lost in these things because. And when we have to remember this message right here that greatness is our birthright. I love that line. We are Americans. Ambition is our heritage.

[00:20:58]:
Greatness is our birthright. It’s powerful. And this one right here as well, you know, your expectations are not big enough. You’ll repeat that to yourself all the time. Whatever you see as part of your future, you know, big believers in visualizing your future. And when you think about your goals, to constant question, constantly question them. Are these aren’t big enough? How can I make these bigger? How Can I get there faster? That’s the environment we’re in. That’s what we mean by talking about the wild west of free market capitalism.

We don’t mean taking advantage of people in robber baron era. No, now is the time you can just do things again, right? The government’s at least for now is more so than it has been in years out of our way. Now is the time to take advantage of that and, and to truly let those opportunities lead us to more opportunities for our communities. Because what happens locally is really what matters the most. Of course the president does matter, but the real change, you know, does come in the local community. However you can get involved there. From a business point of view to a volunteering point of view, our best days are ahead of us, you know, versus the Biden administration where it did seem for a long time there like our best days were behind us. All right folks, I’ll try to wrap this up for you here because we did get an all time high from the S&P 500 today as well.

[00:22:28]:
Big close above 7,000 for the last couple sessions here. 7,040 on the S&P 500. Just an incredible move, you know, 12 days in a row of rally. 12 days in a row of smart, strong, smart money hours. 12 days in a row of the semis leading all of these are our textbook bull market actions. Exactly what we want to see. And to that point the semis actually did lead tech on the day. Not huge gains but up 410 of 1% again an all time high.

So all around fantastic day here we also have the Russell 2000 getting close to an all time high. But the Dow Jones is lagging here. Spend a good amount of day of the day flat to negative. So what do we want to see from this group? One last chart for you here today. The transports. Look at that, 4% to the upside, right? It’s not just tech driving this market higher. We’ve been waiting on the Mag 7 to start acting like this. We’ve been expecting them to act better, seeing manufacturing industrials transports on the rise again.

[00:23:37]:
This is a market that is broadening. Exactly what we want to see in our contrarian play right now continues to be in housing as we expect yields to come down. Now we’ve hit you know, some short term overbought levels on stocks on our major indexes. But I won’t talk about that as much in blue sky territory here because these moves oftentimes go on, especially when you break out like that. They go on much longer than people expected. But long term, medium to long term, we expect yields to come down in a big way impacting housing. All right, looking at our internals here on the day, not quite as strong as we’ve seen lately, but positive across the board. Very good to see coming.

Positive again, just barely, but across the board here. So advanced decline, both NYSE and NASDAQ positive, 52 week highs and lows positive on both. Volume positive on both. No big two to one beats or anything like that. At least worth talking about in the short term here. We’ll continue to keep an eye on it as always for our sectors on the day. A better day than yesterday. Finished with 7 out of our 11s and P500 sectors higher on the day.

[00:24:50]:
And energy did lead the way, followed by real estate. So that is REITs because I mentioned home builders earlier not acting as well. The S&P 500 real estate sector is not quite the same. Excuse me, one other point on oil, though. Similar to our markets being a short term overbought oils pulled back significantly. And even with slightly elevated oil prices from here, energy companies should have pretty good earnings. You know, energy prices are I think going to get back to that kind of sweet spot where they aren’t inflationary. And this is a, you know, short term inflationary impact.

I think it’d be very short term when we zoom out in hindsight. But for energy companies here, they’ve great assets, great balance sheets. There will be, there will come a time where it’s a great play here because the AI boom doesn’t happen without energy. That applies to nuclear. We’ve got a pick here for that in the VRA portfolio as well. Our laggards on the day, healthcare, industrials and consumer discretionary. All right, finally here for today, our VRA commodity watch. Gold did finish down on the day.

Let me get the final quote here. Excuse me. We’ll wrap it up. Gold last trade, $4,815 an ounce. Excuse me. Silver, 78.84 an ounce. Copper slightly higher on the day. Six dollars and four cents a pound.

Gold miners were slightly down on the day. I mean, what a move it’s been for them. Wouldn’t mind seeing some consolidation, but they’re going to head a whole lot higher as well, especially with gold in this range. So many of these gold miners are priced for break evens below $2,000 an ounce. It’s going to be an amazing time. Oil was slightly higher on the day, 93.59 a barrel. As we’ve said here, the lows are in for stocks. Now we’re back at all time highs. But the highs as we see it are also in for oil.

Finally here. Bitcoin was higher earlier in the session. Today now just below $75,000 of Bitcoin. Folks. That’s all we have time for here today. Please be sure to subscribe to receive our podcasts every day at the market close. You can sign up@vra letter.com click that podcast link at the top and we’d love to have you with us. Thanks again for tuning in. Until next time. We’ll see you back here tomorrow for the close.