In today’s episode, Kip dives into a jam-packed discussion on the current state of the markets, the ongoing geopolitical tensions influencing oil prices, and why he believes we're witnessing the start of a generational bull mark ...
Don’t look back because the market is closed. Good Monday afternoon, everyone. Kip Herriage here with the Daily VRA Investing Podcast. Hope you had a good day today. Uh, topics of the day: yes, we closed higher today. Uh, yes, we held gains throughout the day. And, uh, yeah, VIX continues to plummet. Oil futures continue to plummet.
You can talk about that a little bit, talk about the siphon negativity. Which remains firmly in place. And I watched the— I forced myself to watch some of the Sunday news programs, which I never do, right? It just felt like it was time, you know, to watch Face the Nation, Meet the Press, CNN as well, to get an idea of what the propaganda is, right? And surprise, surprise, nonstop negativity. You really got the sense from watching all these programs that if they didn’t have a Republican on there, you would think that for certain that Iran’s winning this, straight up winning. That’s the impression they gave. And this was the big one that kept coming through. How dumb, how dumb could Trump and the US military, Israel, Netanyahu, and the Israeli military, how dumb could they have been? Not to foresee that Iran would try to block the Strait of Hormuz. That was really the theme.
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So we’ll get that more in just a moment because, you know, I think it’s a real good time to fade the mainstream media. Personally speaking, when I see Trump Derangement Syndrome reach this level of absurdity, that means a big turn is coming in the markets. That’s with events like this. That’s what I’ve noticed. And I think that’s exactly what’s about to happen here. We’ll cover that in just a moment as well. Well, um, good internals today, good internals. Sectors, all 11 sectors finished high on the day.
Our FIFO trade continues to hold up, first in first out. I think we were one of the first ones to talk about this. I’m seeing more talk about this now, but it’s— I think it’s, I think it’s very important for, for the broad market action, uh, the fact that Bitcoin, again, that’s one of our big liquidity tells, that Bitcoin and then software stocks, momentum stocks, growth stocks, Mag 7, that entire group I just named started going down in last, last October, November, with like within 2 weeks of each other they all started just going down. It was so— again, momentum is what we’re talking about, right? That’s what we’re talking— software stocks used to be the high flyers. And then everything starts really declining in October. And we knew it at the time, we recognized it, and we said, hey, you know what, rotations like this are a hallmark, textbook bull market action. And I think that’s exactly what’s happened here, because now first in, first out, those same groups are leading higher. Bitcoin over $74,000, now $74,500 last trade here.
And software stocks, momentum stocks, all beginning to gain ground. I think the Mag 7 stocks are going to lead higher now, and it’s going to be— I think it’s going to be a very, very good rest of the year. Um, also got some VRA system, VRA investing system notes for you that I think stand out. Uh, some, some good analytics, important analytics, I think, along with the fact that seasonality— you— we’ve now reached the— we’ve now passed the point where it’s just good enough to say that seasonality is bullish. We’re now in the phase where seasonality is wildly bullish. That, that’s how bullish this phase— second half of March, all of April into May. I think it about like the— if I remember, May 13th, 14th— this is when— this is one of the best stretch drives of the year for the markets, and we’re in it right now. Um, so we’ll get to the market first.
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Again, solid day today. Uh, you know, one point the Dow Jones was up just over 500 points, finished up 387. The smart money hour though, that’s what we care about most, was solid. Gave a little ground just like an hour and a half before the close, and this smart money hour was really good. NASDAQ finished up 1.2% today, uh, S&P 500 up 1%. So everything up more than 1%. Again, VIX today down 13%, now back to 23. And, um, yeah, the, the leader semis up 1.7%.
You know, I, I share this chart about once a week— excuse me— show this chart about once a week, uh, in our very letter. I’m going to share it again tomorrow because, again, if you’ve been with us here, you know one of the things we always talk about when we’re talking about market direction is what are the semis doing. And we use SMH. You can use the SOX index, they’re all the same.. But we look at the SMH, the semi ETF. What is it doing in relation to the broad market, right? Uh, relative strength-wise, because when the semis are leading higher, if you’re not long, you’re making a mistake. When the semis are leaning lower, if you’re not out of the market or lightening up, you’re making a mistake. And this chart from the April 7th, uh, tariff mania lows of last year has been Perfection.
Every time the supporting trend line has been hit on this relative strength chart of the semis to S&P 500, every single time that line has been touched— it was touched last week— the semis have then catapulted up and began leading higher again. And that, that’s what we saw today, uh, and, and part of last week as well. Uh, look, if we see the semis start to lead lower, you’re going to hear it first from us. This is, this is a kind of an integral part— the VR investing system that we pay very close attention to. We would be lightening up if the semis were leading lower, but they’re not. So we continue to add positions. As I wrote this morning, you know, we have, I believe, a unique advantage here at the VRA in that we turned bullish before anyone else did. We called this the roaring 2020s pretty much before anybody did.
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And there may have been a couple others, but, but we were right there. We’re talking mid-2022. Before the market bottomed. And then on October 13th, 2022, we called the lows that day, right? That day, that, that day, uh, extreme oversold, everybody was puking up stocks, nobody— fear and greed index was down to 4. I mean, it was, it was a textbook signal, a contrarian buy signal, right? And, uh, we went on a limb and said not only are the lows in for now, but this is it, the lows are in. And it’s time to get on with the Roaring 2020s. And when that’s, you know, in our book The Big Bribe, we call this a generational bull market. Well, that’s the advantage that I honestly, that I think we have.
We have a belief system that’s rooted in the fact that this is a structural bull market of size and scope. And nothing that’s happened with this war with Iran has changed that, hasn’t even put a dent in it. Nothing. That’s why the various systems remain at 9 to 12 screens bullish. So I think we have an advantage that we’ve been bullish for, you know, longer than— we’ve been the most— just no doubt about it, this is just the truth— we’ve been the most bullish market strategist in America for the last 3 and a half years. That’s just a fact. And the fact that we see this going into the 2030s, not even— you know, a lot of people have said, well, ‘Kip, it’s roaring 2020s, you know what’s going to happen. Remember the 1920s? 1929 is going to suck.’ You know, and I’m like, well, first of all, you know, when we first started saying it, we was like, you know, 2024, right? I’m like, first of all, you do realize that’s 5 to 6 years away.
So that’s, that’s 5 to 6 years of extraordinary gains, as, as happened in the 1920s, before that happens. That’s point number 1. And point number 2 is, we never said we were going to have that 1929 was gonna be like 1929, right? 2029 was gonna be like 1929. We never said that. Matter of fact, we believe that the innovation revolution is so powerful, and we’re starting to see news now that’s just mind-blowing. It is mind-blowing. Tal and I were just talking about this. NVIDIA had their CONFAW today.
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And I gotta tell you the truth, I feel stupid. I feel really, really stupid. It’s like I’m reading a foreign language when I read what’s coming out of these conferences. And, and the developments that are taking place. I’m like, they’re using words, I don’t know what that means, you know. And so, um, you know, apparently now everything’s based on tokens, you know, when it comes to NVIDIA. That’s their future growth, going to come from tokens. It’s energy in effect, right? And this is, this is, this is why everyone’s spending trillions of dollars to get where NVIDIA is taking everyone.
And, uh, you know, I, I just read last week, and again over the weekends looked at it again about Tesla’s new, uh, uh, uh, facility, a manufacturing facility they’re making for chips. They’re going to have everything that they use in one house, so there, there won’t be supply chain shortages. You won’t have to wait on a TSMC or Nvidia or anybody else. They’re producing it themselves. They break ground on this in about I think it’s like in the next week or so. Obviously can take time to build it, but you know, uh, Musk sees where it’s going. He doesn’t want to be, uh, dependent on other companies to produce what he’s going to produce with millions of robots and hundreds of millions, billions of Tesla vehicles. And folks, that, that may sound like an exaggeration.
We’ll start with 100— we’ll start with hundreds of millions. Because they’re going to have, of course, the Teslas like, like I have. If you’re new here, welcome. Um, I drive— or excuse me, I should say I let my Tesla Model S Plaid drive me wherever I go, and it drives fully. It is unbelievable. It’s perfection. Now, the last 7 long trips we’ve taken— not long meaning Austin or, you know, other places, going to see my mom in North Texas, going to see clients in Dallas The last 7 trips that I’ve taken, and I’ve got witnesses, people in the car with me, I have not touched the steering wheel once again, except for, oh, I want to turn there, you know, I need to disengage the FSD. But otherwise, you know, everywhere else, the car’s driving me.
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And now because Groq, you know, is in the vehicle too, you, if you have a change of mind, you know, I want to, I don’t want to go straight to Dallas, I want to take a, I want to exit at Buffalo, you know, and I’m gonna go there to have lunch. You just press the button, tell the car what you wanna do, and boom, it just makes the change for you, updates your trip, et cetera. Wanna get gas, do the same thing. Wanting to charge up, do the same thing. So the car’s unbelievable. So the point being, not only is Tesla about to have it again, their mass production of the CyberCab begins next month, right? And you know, they’ll roll it out slow at first. You know, of course that’s the way it’s supposed to happen. But ultimately, you know, how many CyberCabs are gonna be all over the world? In addition to that, how many people are gonna be like me that own a Tesla that don’t need to drive it at midnight, don’t need to drive it overnight, just let the car go out and make us money, you know? And then of course that is our plan.
As a lot of you know, we plan to have our own, our own small franchise of cyber cabs working for us. So we’ll share all that with you as we get closer to it. Information is starting to come out about the best way to make that happen. But the point being, this world is speeding up and I cannot think, and I like to think I can see both sides. As Tyler said often, we’re not perma bulls and not perma bears. We look, try to see through the noise, uh, and not to get too caught up in the hype, right? Hard to do right now, if I’m telling you the truth. Very hard to do. I think it’s a horrible time to be a pessimist.
It’s maybe the worst time in history to be a pessimist. And the people I see out there that are talking about the downside of AI, uh, you look, are there— is there going to be some downsides? Sure. Are some— are people going to lose jobs? Yes. But for every job lost, I believe there’s going to be 3, 4, 5 jobs created. This is going to be a magical era for humanity. And, uh, now starting to see other people say what we wrote in The Big Bribe, get over 3 and a half years ago, uh, people now in the business, uh, you know, right in the middle of the tech world, are saying, guys, we have some new inventions coming that are going to blow your mind. That’s coming. We haven’t got to that phase yet, right? So the innovation revolution is not going to end.
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It’s not— we’re not going to have a 1929 moment, you know. Um, the innovation revolution, this thing is going for decades, you know. And you talk about a future with space exploration and space tourism. I mean, this is going to become a common thing. Uh, again, we wrote this in The Big Bribe. Inside of 20 years, there won’t be a disease. There won’t be diseases inside 20 years. AI is going to figure all this out.
Hey, you may have read online, there are people now that are, for their dogs that have illnesses, are now inputting the, the illness into one of these AI— Grok, etc. And I think, I think, you know, Grok’s my favorite— and then saying, what’s the best treatment for my pet? And it spits out something that probably very few vets in the world can tell you what to do without saying, oh, get a vaccine, right? You know, I, we, when it comes to vaccines, Cindy and I have always been on the same page. No, we don’t. We don’t want, well, some of them, you know, you gotta have the basics, the polio, etc., measles. All right, we went along with that, but we just refused to do the others. And they said, well, your kids can’t, you know, Tyler and Sam went to private school here. Kids can’t come to school if they gotta be vaccinated. We’re like, well, then we want an exemption based on, you know, a religious exemption.
And we got those. But, you know, it was always a fight. And other parents all looked at us like, you’re not gonna get your kids vaccinated? Vaccine? Are you, have you thought this through? I’m like, yeah, we actually kind of have. Did the same thing with our dogs, right? Just, just the, the rabies, that, that, that’s good. You know, we don’t need the kennel cough and all the others, right? My mother, you know, my mom is, uh, my mom’s a nurse and she’s incredible, but she still trusts that environment more than she should. We’ve had this conversation many times. She had one of, one of our dogs, actually it was from a litter that we had Malteses, uh, gave one to my mom and Without talking to me about it, she went. The, the doctor recommended a, uh, a, a vaccine where your dog won’t have to get— won’t be treated for fleas and ticks for 5 years or something like that, right? Uh, within a week of getting that vaccine, the dog was blind and then went through the most painful death because my mother just couldn’t put it down.
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You know, the dog died within a month, and I could— it was spazzled. I mean, yeah, look, I don’t want to get too, too graphic here, But, um, you know, I think that again, we’re going to have— AI is going to, is going to, um, it’s going to free the world. Again, there’ll be downside, I know, but they’re going to be so much more upside. And again, I think if you’re an optimist, it’s a great time to be alive, you know. Um, and I’ll, I’ll work— I’ll walk through some other things, but I think our advantage again is that we’ve been bullish I think we have a very good roadmap for what the future looks like, which means only one thing. When you get these dips, you know, 5% and 8%, 5% S&P 500, 8% NASDAQ, which means most stocks are down 20%. I mean, this is the way it works. But when you get these, it only means one thing: it’s a gift.
It’s a gift. And I’ve got some good data to back that up in a minute as well. All right, again, oil today, uh, last trade now, 90, just over 93. Um, you know, over the weekend, as you probably saw, everyone’s talking about, you know, this is, this is going to get worse. You know, I saw, I read 3 pieces this weekend that said oil is going to either 150 or 200. These are industry people. This sounded, sounded super intelligent. Except they have one problem.
Why are December oil futures trading at $75? What, what’s up with that severe extreme level of backwardation? Explain that. And they all say the same thing. Well, it’s, it’s, it’ll catch— play catch-up because that’s just paper, you know. At some point you have to deliver it. And that’s the answer. Sure, that’s true, but this is not the way this works. This level of extreme backwardation points to only one thing, and that’s lower oil prices. The futures markets, you know, they’re kind of like the Einstein, you know, uh, when they’re grouped like this, they don’t get these calls wrong.
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Look, something could always go wrong, plenty of risk, of course, as there always is. But our view from the beginning of this, uh, is that we trusted Trump And we think he’s earned that trust when it comes to the use of the military. Look, we have a whole lifetime of President Trump, a whole lifetime of President Trump saying he’s not a fan of forever wars. This is who he is. It just is. It’s who he is. But he also sees Iran, as he said any number of times, as a threat to the whole world. Now, are they a bigger threat to Israel than us? Yes.
Uh, can you question that, the closeness of that relationship? Yes. Does it make sense to question, uh, whether or not, uh, we’re beholden to Israel? Sure. But this is a little different because Iran, as we see now, bombing their own neighbors, right? They’re not acting like rational people., and I don’t think they are. I think this is a cult-like mentality where they want to die. They want to be a martyr because they got the virgins waiting for them. And so I don’t know how you beat those people. That’s the problem. I don’t know how you beat them.
It’s going to take an uprising in the country, but that’s not our problem. We’re taking care of our business right here, and that’s been our view from the beginning, is that we trusted Trump. We certainly trust our military. And I think when you combine the US military and Israeli military, does anybody on the planet want to mess with these two? No, thank you. Seen some of the new tech coming out there, the, the laser guns, etc.? I mean, look, again, we’re getting a, we’re getting a, a close-up of the future of warfare. And, uh, again, I think messing with, uh, the US and, and Israel is, is a dumb money move. And again, just my view, were they perfectly ready for the Strait of Hormuz? Maybe not. I’m not a military person.
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I’m not a planner. They’ve got AI systems running that are telling them what to do without question. So I think anybody that is all of a sudden now is an expert on the Strait of Hormuz that barely even knew what it was a couple of weeks ago, and I know a lot of those people, And I think the people that are experts now on Iranian mines in the Strait of Hormuz, right? You know, these are all people rooting for oil to go higher. These are people that are rooting for the markets to fall. These are people that are rooting for the US to fail, meaning Trump, and by extension, all of us. And that’s a sickness, I think. I think, again, the TDS has reached a level of extreme nature. That means they’re getting desperate, and I think they know somewhere that they’re gonna lose.
And so they’re all trying to come together at one time and just scare the shit out of everybody. The fear porn is everywhere, every network, you know. And again, the psyop of negativity has been in place now for a very long time. You know, this goes back— the psyop of negativity, which I’ve been writing about now for, I don’t know, 10, 12 years. You know, I noticed it just after the financial crisis because that’s a once-in-a-lifetime event. That’s like a 1929. That’s a once-in-a-lifetime event, what we went through. But they wouldn’t stop with the fear porn.
And when I realized that we are past the worst of it and now things were improving, I mean, I said to myself, okay, we’re not going to see that again for 50 years. That’s just not going to happen again. And again, you know, history backs that up. But so many people are attached to it. And the reason most of them were attached to it, because they’re being paid to, to be so paid, like the Zero Hedges of the world, right? And because so many people read this now, and again, because, you know, uh, the financial crisis is still so fresh in everyone’s mind, you know, these wounds are still fresh for a lot of people. The banks tried to take our stuff.. And in a lot of cases, they succeeded, you know. And who wants to live through that again? You know, it’s been a while since I’ve said this.
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I’m going to say this again. One of the reasons that this is a structural bull market is because of the financial crisis. It’s a big reason. This is why the American balance sheet is in such great shape. Now you might go, well, Kip, I know a lot of people are struggling. Yeah, yeah, look, We’ve talked about this before. There’s a first America and a second America. In my lifetime, that’s always been the case, by the way.
Might have called it something different. I’m talking about the America that matters to the markets. The first America. People that are doing well. Because here’s the facts of this. Americans have less debt now to income than at any point they’ve had in 25 years. Again, the financial crisis really woke people up and said, no more, I’m never gonna let myself get in that position, right? We also see in the housing market, again, 40% of all Americans have no mortgage. They have paid their home off.
40%. That’s when we first tell people this. I remember the first time I went on Charles Payne Show and I said it. He stopped me, goes, that can’t be true, Kip. I said, not only is it true, but the average home equity is at 70%. These are both all-time highs, of course, and it’s only gone up since then. So the most important asset for anybody on the planet, 99.9% of the people, is their home, and they’re either paid off or being in the process of being paid off. That’s not normal, but it’s what happens after you’re forced to live through 2007, 2008, and a once-in-a-lifetime event.
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So as bad as that was to go through, look, it’s given us a gift here. It’s given us a structural bull market and a structurally strong US economy. Again, we have almost $40 trillion sitting in home equity. What do you think’s gonna happen when rates start going down? ‘Cause that’s how we’re positioning our portfolio for exactly that. Small caps, housing stocks, tech stocks, Bitcoin. These are the big winners of gold and silver and the miners. These are all big winners from lower rates and a lower dollar. I wrote this up this morning, not to get too off track, but you know, We also like— we do a lot of work here in, uh, in primary trend versus counter-trend trading, you know, and, and, and charts just, just make it jump off the page at you.
And, you know, as of Friday, the dollar, 10-year yields, and, um, oh, what was the third? The dollar, 10-year yields, and there’s one more. Come on, Harriet. Shoot, anyway, I could pull up my letter for this morning, but they’ve all hit extreme overbought on steroids. Oh, it’s oil. Oil, rates, and the dollar are all hitting extreme overbought on steroids. That’s our most overbought rating. And it doesn’t guarantee that a top is in place, again, for oil, rates, and the dollar, it doesn’t guarantee that a top is in place. But here’s what it does.
And again, this is, this is over 30 years of the VRA system coming right at you. It tells you that owning that, whatever it is, that position has now become a high-risk situation. Bad things happen at extreme overbought on steroids. Seen it time and time again. The times I fought it I’ve regretted it. So it doesn’t mean that they’re both— look what oil’s done since, again, last Monday, oil at $120, right? It’s really not challenged anything close to that level again. And now it’s extreme, we’re on steroids. It’s coming off that a little bit now, but not much.
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The dollar, again, these are counter-trend moves. The dollar’s been in a big bear market since Trump got elected, and that’s of course what he wants. And now we’re seeing a countertrend move. I think the move back in the dollar, certainly the move back in oil, which we see going back into the 70s here soon. This is soon, 2, 3 months, right? And then into the 40s. Oil’s going into the 40s. And then the third is of course rates. And you know, again, we’re seeing a countertrend move.
Remember when Trump got inaugurated, the 10-year yield was 4.8%, right? Even with the move, it was actually down today, but 10-year yields now are 4.22%. And again, they were, they were down today. So we’ve already seen a decline. Again, with the primary trend for all of these is lower, and I think it’s a— it’s again, it gives us a playbook to work off of until that’s violated, until those trends change. We’re going to stick with the primary trend. And that’s what we are. We’re really trend followers, and primary trends matter a lot. All right, where was I? All right, let’s move along.
I’ve got some good data for you here on the markets. Again, seasonality remarkably bullish here. This is when big moves take place. I just said oil, extreme robot on steroids. And also, this is good data. This is thanks to Phil Rosen, put this out over the weekend. Uh, I used to be on CNBC a lot. I, I don’t know, I haven’t seen him in a while, but again, I don’t watch CNBC.
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Maybe that’s the reason that I don’t know where Phil Rosen is now. But it’s still good data and he’s reliable. Now I’ve seen this other place, the version of it going back 40 years. When oil’s had like a jump like it just had, a 20% move higher in a 2-day stretch, we just saw that the average gain And the S&P 500 over the next year has been 24%. That’s pretty good data, you know, going back 40 years. That’s what I would call reliable with a high probability repeating pattern. Also, money managers, asset managers, hedge funds now have their lowest exposure to the S&P 500 of the last decade. And again, that’s even lower than the pandemic lows.
Again, that’s a big contrarian buy signal. Again, Bitcoin been on a nice run, $74,434 here last trade, uh, from the pre-war lows. And again, this is that first in, first out signal. From the pre-war lows, Bitcoin is up 24%. The software ETF, again, first momentum stocks first to fall last October. Is up now 14% from its pre-war lows. As tech stocks got hammered over the last 2 weeks because of the war, this group didn’t. Bitcoin didn’t.
Our other crypto is up— TAO is up 64% in like 10 days. And again, that’s our new— our new— it’s my— I think I can speak for Tyler and Sam and Josh. We talk about it all the time. This is our new favorite crypto. It is called Bitenser, or TAO, T-A-O. And I’ll just give you a quick update on this. This is— we’ve done very well in Bitcoin over the years. We recommend— we first bought it, Tyler and I bought it at $600.
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Saying it was too young, bought it at $600, 2016, 2017. Recommended in the VRA in 19— excuse me, in 2017. Recommended it at $2,000, uh, in the very letter. And in 2 trades, we have gains of more than 2,200% over the last 8 years. So it’s been— Bitcoin’s been very good to us. We’ve had a pretty good feel for it. This new one, Tao, you know, and I said this this morning, I really think it’s going to surpass the gains that we’ve made in Bitcoin. I think the next decade is going to be— is going to be owned by Tao.
In the crypto space. Great documentary out there I share with our folks this morning, uh, about Tao. You can find it online anywhere, probably. It is the Bitcoin of AI. There is no other crypto like it, no other crypto close to it, because all this is patented that they’re doing with their subnets. It’s, it’s a terribly exciting story, especially in the age of AI, which again is just getting started. All right, so there’s some pretty good data for you on what to expect going forward. Are the lows in? I’m not great at calling lows, but I believe confidently so that the worst of the war is over.
I think that Trump and our military, you know, I should say our military and Trump had the upper hand on steroids. And this war has become about two things. Again, been a broken record on this now for, for about a week. It’s about oil prices and the Strait of Hormuz. And you know our thoughts on oil prices— they’re going to plummet from here. The futures are telling us that. And the Strait of Hormuz is going to get worked out. So we may have elevated oil prices, but guess what? The markets are not going to care.
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The markets, I think, have already started looking through this because that’s what the markets do— they’re forward-looking. And even if, frankly, if oil were to stay at an $85 to $105 range, that sounds excessive. That’s what we were 2.5 years ago with Joe Biden. I mean, so this in and of itself is not a big deal. We just don’t wanna see any more velocity of the move. We don’t wanna see a move to $130, $140. That’s the things can freak the markets out. We stay in this range, $90 to $100, give or take, you know, $5 on each side, it’s just not gonna be a problem.
And I think that’s the key point. That’s what we’re seeing. With our first-in, first-out trades. That’s what we’re seeing in Bitcoin leading higher. That is a key liquidity asset, as is the semis, again, leading higher. These are all the signals that we look for to give us market direction. And I think the rest of this year is going to be stellar. And I think this shakeout has accomplished what we wanted it to.
You know, we’ll look back and go, that’s what allowed the next sharp move higher to happen. So many people got shook out. You know, that is the investor psychology and how it works. And we’ve just seen it happen again. Again, TDS is powerful. People paying attention to the mainstream media are going to get destroyed in the markets. And that’s what’s happened. These New Yorkers, they hate Trump, the elitist, all these Wall Street types.
[00:32:44]:
You know, they’re calling for basically for a crash. And a recession in the U.S. And they’re just gonna be proven horribly wrong. That’s a high-confidence call. Again, we think we’ve got a good playbook and we’re sticking to it. This pullback is a gift. Fed meeting this week, the Fed should cut rates. Absolutely should cut rates.
They won’t, but it won’t matter. Kevin Walsh should be in in a couple months and we can get back to the business of helping all of America instead of just the first America that doesn’t care about rates. First America couldn’t care less about rates. Second America is getting destroyed, and that’s about to change. And again, that’s a big reason we’re bullish on housing, because that money, that almost $40 trillion sitting in home equity, once we get rates going lower and people are confident that we have a new trend of lower rates, we already do, but they’re gonna be, once rates get to like 3.5% of the 10-year, all of a sudden a 30-year mortgage is like 5.25%. I mean, that’s gonna happen soon. That’s happening this year. Absolutely.
And then lower. You’re gonna see that home equity, this is such an important point. And I think if you listen to one thing on this podcast, take this away from it, that near $40 trillion sitting in home equity is gonna start coming out and dispersing throughout the US economy. People feel more confident. Hey honey, we could take a trip. Hey, let’s do that project. Been working on the house, let’s do that now. You know, rates are going lower.
[00:34:11]:
Our home equity continues to go up. We’re in great shape, right? We’ve been paying, paying off in a hurry, you know, uh, you know, making a, a payment every month and a half or every 2 weeks. All these strategies to, to pay your home off sooner. Now that home equity can be put back to work. And one more point, and again, this is something we, we’ve talked about this with you for the last 3 years. We really haven’t spent much time on it recently. Tyler’s— this is more his topic than mine. But it’s what’s happening again in, in the world of blockchain, cryptocurrency, and tokenization.
This is already happening, right? But it’s happening in pilot programs. You’re not hearing a lot about it. Tokenization of real assets, real estate, housing is already happening. You’ve probably seen some of the big announcements. Hey, that they built that whole project with tokens. You know, and it’s on the blockchain and it’s tradable, you know, but again, it’s just, again, pilot programs, but that’s going to be everyone’s future. Whether or not, you know, you want to put your home on the blockchain will be up to you, I would imagine. But once you make that decision, you don’t have to go to the bank to take money out of your home.
You don’t have to beg for their approval, right? No, it’s just right there. It’s just online. You want to take out 50 grand to go put an investment, take a trip, right there on the blockchain. Put on the blockchain. You could always buy back too if you wanted to. It may go up with the price of housing as your house goes up in value, etc. So we’ll see how all those rules unfold. But that, that tokenization of everything is going to be wildly bullish.
[00:35:54]:
For the economy. It gives you two things: transparency of assets and liquidity of those assets. And that’s going to be rocket fuel for the economy. So there are just so many reasons to be bullish, and that’s why we encourage people to keep— just look through this, because this is going to end, right? This is going to— it’s, you know, Rich Ross, who’s our— come out, our favorite technical guy, uh, his title of his latest I shared this morning, our letter, was Someday This War is Going to End. You know, and now here are the signs that point to what that end is going to look like. And it’s going to be, again, lower rates, tech leading, housing catching fire— great buy here, we believe— and then, you know, cryptocurrency has come back to life. We’re seeing that now already in Bitcoin and Tao. So we’re getting a snapshot right now of what the rest of this year is going to look like.
So I think you want to own strength here, right? I think you want to own the ones that are going up now. And I think that’s a— that’s— I think that’s something— that’s a— that’s a— an idea, you know, in a playbook we’re going to stick to. The throughout the year. All right, today again, very good internals today. Uh, best decline better than 2 to 1 for both NYSE and NASDAQ. Up volume of both better than 70%, 70.5% of volume for NASDAQ, 71.9% of volume for NYSE. We had about 100 more stocks declining— excuse me, hitting a 52-week low than a high. That will change pretty rapidly.
Uh, and our Sector Watch today, again, very good here. All 11 sectors finished high on the day, led by just what you want to see: technology up 1.4%, consumer discretionary also what you want to see, up 1.4%, and communication services— essentially tech, right? These are all up more than 1%. That’s textbook of what you want to see. Again, semis led higher today. That is absolutely what you want to see. And our, uh, Commodity Watch today, you know, um Gold was a little soft today, silver was a little soft. They bounced back and forth between up and down. But I think the most important point here is that these have been going down because of the war.
[00:37:53]:
Someone started this. It was probably an AI trading program that everyone’s just latched onto. They said, okay, these Middle East countries, they have— they’re buried in oil and gold, right? That’s their two big assets. Well, with the decline in oil revenue because of the Strait of Hormuz closure and, you know, a risk throughout the region, they’re gonna be short of money and they’re gonna have to sell gold. That’s what started this. That plus, of course, the dollar’s been strong. And again, there is a correlation between the two, but it’s not as high as most people think. Gold is only correlated to the dollar by about a 54, 55% ratio.
So that’s actually not that big a deal. But in this time, You know, again, that’s why they’ve, you know, gold is— they keep saying it’s going to have a big move lower. It’s $5,013 an ounce. It was $1,600 a couple of years ago. So, you know, again, I understand, uh, uh, you know, you sell what you can in times like this. Everybody’s got profits in gold, so they sell some. I get it. This is a buying opportunity.
The bull market in gold is only getting started. Same thing for silver. Last trade now just over $80. Again, these levels, $5,080, are holding pretty well. I think this would be support levels going forward, and the miners are just screaming buy. These dips, you know, they’ve all fallen 15%, 20%. You know, the gold miners, some of the ones we own, and 15%, 20%, 25%. And these are, these are a fantastic— this is your opportunity.
[00:39:20]:
You know, I was asking, is it too late to get in the miners? Well, it was when they were extremely overbought, you know, a month ago. That was not the time to buy. Now is the time to be adding to your positions, initiating new positions for the rest of this bull market, because gold’s going to $15,000. That’s our target. I think that’s gonna be on the low side. Silver’s going to $300. I think that’ll be on the low side, frankly. But you gotta have a target.
Everybody tells you you gotta have a target. So that’s what we picked, right? Forever we were at $5,000, but we hit that. So we had to raise them. And I think, you know, we’re seeing, we’re gonna see a monetary reset where gold is gonna play a part in the equation. I think Bitcoin as well, and maybe some others. And again, long-term treasury offerings backed by hard assets, that allows us to have, you know, a 50, 100-year Treasury offering at 1 to 2%. It’d be the maximum in safety. And people love it because they can index it for pensions and that kind of thing, long-term investment planning, you know, that kind of thing.
So again, this is something Trump and Bessant, how about Scott Bessant? This guy, again, Almost no one talked about this when it happened a week and a half ago, but the weekend that oil was getting to open at $120, right, on that Monday, Bessant was on a show on Saturday that I just happened to see where he said— no, no, I’m sorry, this was a Reuters, this is a Reuters news release that quoted anonymous sources that know Bessant, so, you know, take it for what it’s worth. But it said that the U.S. Treasury, led by Scott Bessant, was going to go in the market and short futures because they know oil is going to be ridiculously high and it doesn’t belong there. It’s going to be short-lived. Almost no one talked about that. We talked about it here. Well, look what’s happened. We opened at $120 and we’ve not even touched that level again.
[00:41:18]:
Look at futures again. December, it’s $75. Somebody’s shorting that. Who do you think it is? Bessant was asked about it today in the interview, and he said— the answer he gave was so interesting. He said the U.S. Treasury has not become active in the oil futures markets. That’s the way he phrased it, meaning it’s happening, and it’s happening with friends of ours, but the U.S. Treasury is not, because we’d have limitations, have to report to shareholders, right? This is from Bessant’s old days of working with people people like George Soros.
A lot of people were afraid of that when he got the gig. But, you know, me, you know, I want someone that’s been on the inside, right, that’s now on our team, so they know how these, uh, you know, these, these evildoers in the financial markets work. And that is Scott Bessant. What a rock star this guy has become. I think he’s the— I think outside of Trump, Bessant is, is the— is a superstar of this administration, right? And I’m a big JD Vance fan as well, uh, but I think Bessant, uh, I would not want to mess with Scott Bessant in a financial battle about anything, even something I thought I knew better than him. I just, I think his instincts are spot on. Uh, what else today? Okay. Yeah.
Good. Silver down slightly. I covered that. Copper today, uh, flat on the day, £5.84, really held in very well. Uh, crude oil now, last trade in the futures market, just open here, uh, $92.46, down another buck. From the, from the close. And finally, Bitcoin, last trade now $74,421. Talked about it earlier, you know our thoughts.
[00:42:56]:
Uh, this is a, this is a phenomenal time to own Bitcoin. Uh, the next move will fly through the old highs and we’ll hit $200,000 on Bitcoin at some point in the next 12 to 18 months. All right, that’s our call. Uh, the next velocity move is going to be there. Got some good data on that too. This is from, came from Tyler a couple months ago. In the past, when Bitcoin has had a 50% correction, the next 12 months has seen Bitcoin up by an average of 125%, right? That’s some pretty good data. High probability repeating pattern.
All right, folks, that’s it for today. Hope you had a great day and even better night. We’ll see you back here again tomorrow after the close.
In today's episode, Kip breaks down a volatile but promising week in the markets, highlighting the NASDAQ’s eight-day winning streak, remarkable rallies in the semiconductors and transports, and key indicators signaling continued market strength. We’ll dig into why contrarian signals are flashing, how global events and Federal Reserve policies are shaping investment opportunities, and spotlight the role of “smart money” in driving recent moves. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.
In today's episode, Kip breaks down a pivotal week for the markets, highlighting a powerful seven-day rally and the bullish signals emerging across equities. You'll hear timely insights on how global events—particularly the waning war and a shift in investor sentiment—are shaping smart money movements. Kip explores the lasting impact of retail traders pulling back, the surge in put buying, and why technical patterns and seasonality are now favoring an extended rally. We'll dive deep into the crucial role of semiconductors, transports, and housing as key market tells, as well as the latest action in bitcoin and gold. Kip also shares stories from Wall Street’s past and present, connects market patterns to past cycles, and pinpoints the sectors that stand to benefit as the next phase unfolds. Stay tuned for actionable analytics, market leadership insights, and the strategies driving the VRA approach as we navigate this new phase of the bull market. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.
In today’s episode, Kip breaks down a pivotal Wednesday for the markets, highlighting the Dow’s best single-day performance in a year and pivotal new all-time highs for both the semiconductor and transport indexes. You’ll hear about the ongoing strength of the U.S. economy, despite recent geopolitical uncertainty, including the “smart money hour” streak and blowout earnings from major companies like Delta Airlines. Kip also explores the end of the recent war, its impact on fiscal stimulus, and why corrections in this “generational bull market” are seen as buying opportunities rather than setbacks. Plus, the latest insights on sector rotations, the innovation revolution powering the U.S. recovery, forecasts for GDP growth, Federal Reserve moves, and updates on commodities, energy, and Bitcoin’s market leadership. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.
In today's episode, Tyler breaks down a dramatic start to the week following the long Easter weekend. Our major indexes reversed early losses to finish at their highs of the day, another clear signal of a strong, resilient market. Tyler also unpacks the latest headlines driving market moves, including the late-day development that sparked the sixth consecutive Smart Money Hour. Tune in to find out what it means for investors now.
Welcome to the VRA Investing Podcast. In today’s episode, Speaker A recaps a resilient market performance in the face of geopolitical turmoil, highlighting how, despite heightened tensions in the Middle East and strong rhetoric from Washington, U.S. markets closed at their highs. Speaker A explores the signals pointing to a bullish market pivot, including robust job numbers, the continued strength of semiconductors and bitcoin, and indicators suggesting the worst of the recent market correction may be behind us. The show also dives into the potential of the ongoing innovation revolution, including tokenization and the real-world application of blockchain, and shares why the coming years could bring generational investment opportunities. With sector updates, market internals, and key analysis, Speaker A provides a roadmap for navigating the current landscape and seizing growth opportunities in a rapidly evolving economy.
