Welcome back to the VRA Investing Podcast! In today's episode, Kip Herridge brings an energetic recap of a busy Wednesday—covering everything from Texas politics and prediction markets to the current state of the U.S. economy and the stock market's latest all-time highs. Kip Herridge discusses the recent blowout election results in Texas and unpacks why he believes prediction markets like Kalshi are offering "easy money" opportunities, despite what traditional polls suggest. He also dives into why inflation fears may be overblown, the contrarian wisdom that drives his investment strategies, and why now may be one of the best times in history to be a bullish, optimistic investor. Plus, look out for thoughts on the upcoming SpaceX IPO, the potential for a Tesla-SpaceX merger, and actionable notes on gold, oil, and bitcoin. Stay tuned for insights, forecasts, and contrarian takes grounded in decades of experience navigating Wall Street and Main Street alike.

Kip Herriage [00:00:00]:
Foreign. Don’t look back. The market is closed. Good Wednesday afternoon, everyone. Kip Herridge here with the daily viewing investing podcast. Hope you had a good day today. It was a good day today. Got a lot of fun things to talk about today.

Kip Herriage [00:00:17]:
I’m excited about this podcast. Some actually, again, some fun. A little bit different today. Things that just kind of. We look, first of all, in Texas, okay? Here in Texas, as most of you know, native Texan, I’m fifth generation, Tyler, sixth, and Sam, of course, now, and pretty proud of that, right? And maybe not so much. I was growing up. I was. I was called a hit growing up from.

Kip Herriage [00:00:44]:
From deep in East Texas. But you know what? I look back on it now, and I’m proud of my roots and where I’ve come from. Anyway, we had this election, you know, the primary runoff here, and as many of you probably heard, it’s all in the media. Ken Paxton beat John Cornyn. It was an absolute blowout. I. This is a blowout that you rarely hear. Paxton won all but two counties.

Kip Herriage [00:01:08]:
It’s like 255, several hundred counties. It may be 500. I don’t have the data in front of. You know, it was a landslide. He won all but two counties. One of the counties he’s. That, that. That Cornyn won was Austin County, Right? Kind of makes sense, right? That’s Cornyn.

Kip Herriage [00:01:27]:
That’s kind of his hotbed. The other county had six votes. So it was, it was a blowout, right? And look, I think not to spend too much time on this early on. I think John Cornyn was a good man who was a good senator, and then he just got devoured by the swamp. I mean, that is what happened. If it happens to all of them, right? It happens to the best of them, and that is what happened here. I think the real story of this is that John thune wasted over $100 million of money that could have gone to where the votes would have really mattered, right? Where the campaigns could have used the money. And instead he wasted the corn.

Kip Herriage [00:02:06]:
And look, Paxton didn’t even need Trump support. Paxton was going to win this. We talked about this before the podcast, and I want to spend a lot of time on this, but I’m telling you, I spoke to one person, one person here in Texas that like Cornyn, and this is a guy, he works, actually works in the Fox studio here in Houston when I go in for the interviews with Charles Payne. He was an old school rhino, didn’t like Trump. Big fan of Cornyn on and on, right? That was the only person that I spoke with in Texas and I asked the ask this question a lot of people. So anyway, point being this guy James, Jim Tallerico, right, is going to be running against Paxton. And it’s interesting because the polls have him ahead. Check the polls.

Kip Herriage [00:02:55]:
They have him ahead. But I have a Kalshee account, right. And you know, Kalshee and Poly. What’s the other one? Poly market, the prediction markets. Not betting prediction markets. And I just placed a wager on this. I think this is what, what they would call easy money because just the opposite of the polls. And this is why the polls, polls no longer matter if you’re.

Kip Herriage [00:03:20]:
And this is a, maybe a good conversation to have with your spouse because my wife and I had this conversation because she watched the watches the morning news shows and you already, you can finish the sentence for me. You already know where this is going. But I’ll do. Honestly, I wouldn’t know a lot of this unless that he told me. And so she’s always telling me what they’re saying in the morning. But there’s, there’s a flip side to it because she is, she is impacted by the propaganda, right? Because we actually wind up having sometimes a heated conversation where I say often, Cindy, why do we have to keep talking about this? You know, you are being lied to. But you, these polls are, they’re made up. They’re completely made up or they’re Democrats 70, 30.

Kip Herriage [00:04:03]:
And so anyway, bottom line is she goes, well, apparently he’s leading the polls. Are you worried? No. Shelder Makashi account Ken Paxton 5842 that I think is about where it’s going to come in. I think this is going to be a blowout. James Talarico, who again the, the news programs are talking about this guy being a real threat to Ken Paxton. They’re already running the spots. You’ve probably seen these. I mean there are six, six sexes.

Kip Herriage [00:04:32]:
God is non binary. He’s a vegan in the state of Texas. Trump put out a great post today on Truth Social about this. Just mocking this guy Talarico. I think the only concern and I’m not concerned about this, but if Republicans get too confident and don’t show up, that doesn’t happen here in important elections. And so I don’t think it will. There are other races that will matter. But I think this is going to be a blowout.

Kip Herriage [00:04:55]:
It’s going to be fun to watch this as another crazy left, a Texan. This guy is from Texas, by the way. I, I Think he’s from Texas. He’s been in four terms in the con in Congress anyway. Some people believe he’s got a chance set up account with couches like I have. It’s fun to place some wages. I’ll tell you another one. Tyler and I’ve, and Sam, if I actually talked to and Josh have actually talked about this about starting to do some work where we make some forecast that you can then bet on in Kalshee.

Kip Herriage [00:05:27]:
I’m really for this. It’s just that, you know, look, our job is to beat the markets, right. And to push in the best investments. And that is a, that is a 247 job. You know that you know all the, the cross currents, everything happening out there and especially when you have a portfolio of 15 different holdings, you know it is a full time job keeping up with all 15. I will tell you that it’s one of the reasons we limit it to that number. Just try and stay on top. Everything but cow.

Kip Herriage [00:05:53]:
She is interesting. And the other wager that I have right now I only have the two. I have Paxton and the other wager that I have, which I think is a high pro, a really high probability bet, it’s called real. The question is that you. It’s prediction markets, right? Not betting. They call it prediction markets to get around the betting, the, the gambling rules. The question is will there be a trump economic boom? That’s you enter that in the Cauchy search engine up, you know, top, top, top of the page. I think this is legal in every state.

Kip Herriage [00:06:25]:
Akashi. I think I know it’s not in Nevada because Wayne and I were just talking about this. Wayne wanted to open an account and bet on this like I have for Paxton over, over Talarico. But I think it’s legal in most states. It is in Texas. And again the question is will there be a trump economic boom? And what that means is will. This is one of my favorites. You’ll see why.

Kip Herriage [00:06:46]:
Just second. Will there be a quarter from now until. Let me just get the rules again here. Will there be a quarter between now and really the next three years? The next three years where the US economy just in a single quarter grows by 5% and right now it’s a basically a 5050 proposition, right? So basically it’s, it’s a chance to make 50, 60% of your money at some point in the next. I think it’ll be this year. That’s, that continues to be my prediction. My forecast that we’re going to have 5% GDP growth likely next quarter, right? We’re in the second quarter now. I think it could happen, it could happen in next month.

Kip Herriage [00:07:32]:
It’s that, it’s, it’s coming that soon. That’s how hot the economy is. And we know that because earnings are growing at 27%. And again, it kind of drives me crazy. Does it drive you crazy that almost no one’s talking about this? You know, again, it’s these propaganda networks, Bloomberg and, and cnbc, which of course I haven’t watched since the pandemic days. But if you watch Bloomberg and that, I don’t watch TV during the day unless there’s a big, you know, a Fed meeting or whatever, I really don’t have it on unless breaking news, what have you. But I do watch it in the morning when I get up. I tend to get up around 3:30 when I get up, get my tea.

Kip Herriage [00:08:08]:
Big green tea fan here. I was a coffee guy for forever and now green tea has really changed my life. I, I drink a large cup. I have, you know, a yeti, right. And about halfway through it I am ready to go. And it, it’s consistently worked that well. Green tea is, it’s also very healthy for you, or so they say. I think it is.

Kip Herriage [00:08:28]:
Anyway, that’s when I watched my Bloomberg getting caught up on social media, getting caught up on emails, all that kind of thing. Looking at what’s happening early morning and Bloomberg is once again getting far, far left in the morning. They’re mocking Trump, they’re mocking the war, like they want it to continue. Right. They don’t want, they don’t want there to be closure here. It’s getting very hard to watch. And yes, I had been communicating that to Bloomberg. Quick story on that.

Kip Herriage [00:08:56]:
I’ve been asked on two occasions over the last three years to be on Bloomberg. And the first thing I tell people is you’ll want to check my social media because, you know, what’s the point of going through all of this if you’re gonna just, you know, put me through the ringer and then not have me on anyway or cancel me or whatever. Right. So I guess they had different producers. And I’ve said this to now two people make sure and check my social media. And then the last person actually got back to me and said, hey, you know what, we don’t have a problem with this. You know what, maybe talk to your boss because I don’t want to go through this again. And again didn’t hear back, right.

Kip Herriage [00:09:36]:
But anyway, Bloomberg has gotten so far left again, it’s Very hard to watch. But anyway, there’s a, there’s a, there’s an idea for you. Open the cash account, it’s fun to use, it’s easy to do it, you know, link it to your bank account, put 50 bucks, 100 bucks, we’re going to in it and then start to checking out. There are literally thousands of things that you can wager on. And by the way, because we are in the wild west of free market capitalism, something I’ve been saying here for a long time, and if you read between the lines, I think you might know what I’m saying here, right? Very few crimes are being prosecuted now that were prosecuted during the Biden days. This, this is a free market capitalism economy and these prediction markets are evidence of same. Look at the amount of money that people are making betting on these markets where they already know the answer. This is not illegal.

Kip Herriage [00:10:33]:
There are clearly cases of inside. Now, there have been some recent prosecutions or at least investigations because you have people in the government that are doing this, clearly doing this, you know, batting mass massive amounts in oil futures minutes before Trump makes an announcement, that kind of thing. That’s just lazy. That shouldn’t happen. But, and I’m not saying any of this should happen, but I’m saying as a for instance, if you happen to have some information at your job, right, somewhere in your life, that is non public information. Well, if it’s in the stock market, that’s called insider trading. Anywhere else it’s legal. If you don’t believe me, open an account with Kalshee and Polymarket and read the rules.

Kip Herriage [00:11:18]:
There are no laws against it. So anyway, it’s just a sign of the times. Again, I’m not saying it’s a good thing or a bad thing. I’m just saying this is the roaring 2000s. There are so many signs of this, right? This is again, history repeats, right? May not rhyme, but it repeats. And this is the 1920s, it’s the 2000 and 2020s and it’s all fair and love and war again. Wild west or free market capitalism. And I’ll have to say this because I’m sure a lot of you are thinking, especially if you’re new here.

Kip Herriage [00:11:48]:
And by the way, great to have you with us. I’m sure a lot of you are thinking, okay, but Kip, I remember what happened at the end of the 1920s. It was called a crash and a Great Depression. Yes, it was. And by no means am I do I think these are similar periods, right? Because they’re not. Look Anything can happen. That’s why I got to stay on top of things. But if you’ve been with this while, you know our forecast has been for four years now that this goes into well into the2030s, hey, at some point the gravy train is going to end.

Kip Herriage [00:12:18]:
Our job is to sniff that out. And by the way, that ain’t hard to do. I’m just being crash has come out of nowhere. It’s, it’s, it’s very hard to prepare for that. But you go back and look at some of the signs. You see the internals breaking down, you see leadership reversing. Right. These are the things that we built into the VR system so we get a heads up on this.

Kip Herriage [00:12:42]:
Anyway, I don’t get too off too far a base. I also want to just get back to the markets. How about that? All time highs today across the board. This is the first time this year in 2026 there we all time highs in the big four, SPF 100, NASDAQ, Dow Jones and Russell 2000. Somewhere there’s a perma bear saying that that’s bearish. I promise you there is. If I get a minute, I might also talk of Michael Burry here. A little bit of a big short fame.

Kip Herriage [00:13:13]:
I’ve, I’ve talked about him a few times and something came up today that kind of reminded me of him. And before we get to the markets. Exactly. They get all time highs across the board. Is fantastic to see. No, that’s not bearish. That is extraordinarily bullish. Tyler talked about this a couple weeks ago and the data confirms this.

Kip Herriage [00:13:32]:
Guess what? The very best time to be an investor is to put new money in the markets. The very best time to put new money in the markets is at all time highs. You wouldn’t think that, right? That you wouldn’t think that could be the case. And it is the case because little is more bullish than markets hitting all time highs. The market likes to tell us what it wants to do going forward. That’s one of the signs all time highs tell you that they going to beget more all time highs. Again, thanks to Tyler for that. One of his favorite phrases.

Kip Herriage [00:14:00]:
Also while I’m on the subject of Tyler, I want to thank you as our, as our listeners in Tyler’s case, viewers, thank you for being here with us. Thank you for your feedback. I’m going to read this too. We got this today from a long term listener. Martin, you’ve been with us since 2017 which means you probably are on One of our first forecasts to start off. I think we’ve done over a thousand of these now. Again, Tyler, this is his idea. I didn’t want to do it.

Kip Herriage [00:14:27]:
I’m really glad we did. Given us a chance to really connect with a lot of you, build an audience. Who wouldn’t have built otherwise? Tyler’s got a lot of. It’s got a lot of. A lot of wisdom for a young guy. Martin. This was Martin’s email to us today. I cannot say thank I.

Kip Herriage [00:14:45]:
I think. Can I say that through all the turbulence and chaos, the only two people who continue to keep my investments grounded with both logic and calmness are Kip and Tyler. Thank goodness I received both the V letter and listen to podcast daily. It truly inspires me not to get emotionally involved, which I must admit is extremely difficult at times. I feel very fortunate to have joined and started in 2017 and honestly don’t know where I’d be without this great team. A very humbling thank you to Kip and the entire team for all that you do, Martin. Thank you. You know, this is.

Kip Herriage [00:15:21]:
Honestly, it’s going to sound, you know, like a. I don’t know, it’s probably not going to sound very sincere, but it so is. So much is. This is why we do what we do. I left Wall street because I didn’t. I don’t know I’ve ever shared this before. I was number one in 15 years was enough for me, frankly. And I did see a top coming.

Kip Herriage [00:15:42]:
Talked about that. My mentor told me to read Extraordinary Popular Illusions, the Madness of Krause about six months before the market top. And I did. I knew what Michael was telling. Michael Metz, Director of research at Oppenheimer’s, my second mentor. He was giving me a hint that a top was near and so. But the other reason is, is I just. I stopped sleeping at night, you know, I stopped sleeping at night because.

Kip Herriage [00:16:09]:
Because I do care and making money for people is very important to me. I also learned the hard way, though, that it’s hard to separate people from money and that it’s a very emotional thing. Absolutely. It’s with me too. I get it. I don’t. It’s not that I don’t get it. I get it.

Kip Herriage [00:16:27]:
But when that was beginning, expressed to me like the pressure brought to bear. At the time, I managed about 100, 110 million. Not a lot today’s world, but also also active venture capital, investment banking, etc. And had a life, a family back in Texas. So it was a busy life. But for me, I just said I don’t want this pressure anymore of people depending on my work to fund what’s very important to them. And it became a little overwhelming. So that’s why this is so different.

Kip Herriage [00:17:08]:
Right? We’re not your broker, we’re not your financial advisor. We are a fin pub, we’re a financial publisher and we run a series of newsletters. That’s not to say that we don’t get your emails and in times where things aren’t going great or we have an investment going the wrong way, unfortunately that happens. Yep, we still get those emails. But, but it is different now, right? It is different because I can always reply and this is what I always reply with. I’m not your broker. I’m, I’m trying to do my best here, but I’m not your broker, frankly. Grow up.

Kip Herriage [00:17:42]:
I mean, frankly, you know, be an adult here. Right? But we, we get so few of those and again, I do understand when they come in, I’m not trying to, to talk down to anybody but thank you, thank you for being here, thank you for your emails. Now that we are truly a family business, right. It is important to us. Tyler said this in an interview a couple days ago. You know, you only get one last name, you know, and credibility is important. That’s why we do our very best to be exactly honest with you and to tell you exactly what we think and maybe most importantly exactly what we’re doing with our own money. Right.

Kip Herriage [00:18:17]:
And that is what we do here. That is the Vray portfolio. All right, thank you. Also some economic data today, excuse me, tomorrow coming in. And I think this is an important topic today because you may have noticed a gold today after having a gold. And again markets were closed on Monday except for gold and silver. They were up big Monday and Tuesday. It looked like they were down slightly yesterday.

Kip Herriage [00:18:40]:
That’s just the system catching up with what happened on Monday. But yesterday gold miners were up 4%. Right. Well today this, this makes very little sense but I think I understand it and I think it’s an important topic. Tomorrow we’re getting economic data before the market opens. It’s at 8:30 Eastern somewhere. I’m sure somebody’s betting on this on, on poly marketer Kalshi and getting worried that they already have the data. But the, the most important piece of data we’re going to get tomorrow is the, the Fed’s Preferred Inflation Index.

Kip Herriage [00:19:13]:
It’s called the PCE Price Index. Right. PCE Price Index estimates are from month over month, a rise of five tenths of percent. That means year over year of 3.8%. That’s the, that’s the big number everyone’s looking at tomorrow. Now again, if you’re following the propaganda, what is the, what is the propaganda saying about inflation? Because they’re all saying the same thing, are they not every economist, every network. Because I know I don’t watch all these networks again, but I see it, that’s why Twitter is so important, because I see it there. And these people are absolutely convinced that inflation is about to make a hard and fast return.

Kip Herriage [00:20:00]:
Now remember during the Biden era, right, with, also with Jay Powell almost forgot his name because he’s in our review mirror now to some degree, you know, they, they, they, they almost didn’t care and they certainly didn’t call Wall Street, Biden, Powell or Biden on the carpet. As inflation was going from almost non existent from, from the Trump era, right, to 41 year highs, right. At one point was at 10 and a half, 11% inflation and they barely cared about it then. It was just, you know, it was other events. It was the pandemic that caused this, right. Biden and was Biden and Powell got it that stuck. Now Biden and Powell cannot be blamed for this. Right, right, right.

Kip Herriage [00:20:42]:
But again it’s the hypocrisy, right. That’s what’s so sickening. Right? So they’re all over this. Every economist, everybody we talk to, look at my posts on social media, all of these people saying, you know, when I put out there that we’ve seen the highs for oil, we’ve seen the highs, excuse me, for, for, for interest rates and inflation. And again that, that is our forecast and it’s, and it’s the high confidence forecast. You know, it’s, we, we are, we appear to be like in, I would think in the 10% area. Right. You know, and, and by the way, that makes me extraordinarily confident.

Kip Herriage [00:21:24]:
Ted Parsons, my first mentor taught me this and I thought he was crazy at the time when he one day in his office he said look at these fools. They think that whatever the topic was, right, they think that inflation is going to be a problem this year. And he goes, it’s 98% of economists agree with this. He just laughed out loud and he goes, if only I had a way to bet against this. I don’t. So I’m just going to be 100% invested in the market because they’re wrong. Anytime you find more than 90% of economists agree on the same thing. Take the other side of that bet.

Kip Herriage [00:21:54]:
Because you’re going to be right. It’s the best contrarian call there is. And we have a very, very similar setup today, do we not? So here’s how this plays in to what happened with gold, silver and the miners today. Again, big update yesterday. Today gold was down like what, a half percent? Not, not, not a big deal. But again, why was gold down today? Why were the miners down today? Why was silver down? Silver is down over 2% today. Excuse me, over 3% today. Why was that? Because the propaganda networks had been telling everybody that this PCE data tomorrow is going to be inflationary.

Kip Herriage [00:22:34]:
And it’s just the beginning right now. I’m sorry. These people are idiots. They’re just idiots. They, they have no ability to think for themselves. They are a product of groupthink. Groupthink is the most dangerous single thing to an investment portfolio. How do I know that? I know that because 90% of all money managers, fund managers, lose to the market every single year because of groupthink.

Kip Herriage [00:23:06]:
They have to put something out there that is gonna be accepted, right? And that all their, you know, other co workers and people that, you know, matter to their future. Maybe a possible promotion later. We’ll see. Oh, he’s on board with it. He’s on the team. So they love being wrong together. And then when they’re wrong, it’s funny, they all go, well, hey, we’re not. Everybody missed it, right? I hear that so often on TV and I used to just want to pull my hair out because here I am, this little guy, Sugar Land, Texas, this, you know, shouting from the mountaintops.

Kip Herriage [00:23:44]:
No, that’s not going to happen. No, that’s wrong. And so again, I do take pride in getting things right. Being a contrarian is a big part of it. So all of that was talked about to say this, this is why even though oil today was down big, right? We’ll get into the commodities in a minute. Oil today finishing down 4.3%. By the way, guess where the December futures are for oil? 78,47. Now the reason that matters is that during the height of the war with Iran, even as oil, oil was hitting what, 118, 119 a barrel.

Kip Herriage [00:24:28]:
That was the first spike that we had, another spike to 116, remember? And again now we’re back below 90 or I don’t have the screen from either in that range, but I’ll cover that in a moment. 90 ish. Even when oil was spiking, December oil futures, I don’t believe ever. I don’t think they ever got above 90. And we were talking about the time. Look at this, you’re 84 or 75. No, it was, that’s what it was. They were in the 70s.

Kip Herriage [00:24:56]:
So they have gone up a little bit. And that’s because oil stayed higher. But again, right now, December futures are 7847. And these futures markets, that’s, that’s like, that’s like using frankly Kalshi or poly market, because this is the smart futures market. That’s the smart money. That typically is smart money. Not always, but typically. So they see what’s going to happen here.

Kip Herriage [00:25:21]:
So oil down big today, right? Well, that’s not inflationary, right? That’s, that’s the opposite of inflationary. So why would gold, silver and the miners be down today? What else happened today? Rates, Tenure today broke down again. Now down to 4.48%. Remember a week ago it was close to 4.8%. Now we’re down now below 4.5%. That’s back to back days again. That’s not a signal of inflation. So we didn’t get it from oil, we didn’t get it from rates.

Kip Herriage [00:25:54]:
And so the only thing that makes sense, the only logical part of what happened today with this decline in gold, silver, the miners, and by the way, I bought, I bought more, I added to our minor positions today and that snow line invest, of course, because I think tomorrow, almost regardless of what this data says, that I think you’re going to see reversal higher in this group. So this was the sell the rumor, buy the news thing is what this was. And so that’s my forecast. We’ll see what happens. I normally don’t like to make day by day predictions, but logically today the decline in this group made absolutely no sense. And at the end of the day, folks, we’re going to have disinflation. That’s the great thing about the new Fed chair. When Wash gets on board, we’re going to see a complete change in the, in the way this is all communicated.

Kip Herriage [00:26:45]:
I’ve already seen some advanced reports about this. It’s how he’s going to, we’re going to change the way you look at inflation and how the Fed members communicate. In other words, what are you doing going out there giving 10 speeches a month, riling people up? You don’t need to be in the limelight. Oh my God, how happy does this make us, right? Let’s get away from monthly meetings. All of these prima donnas, they should, no one should know their Names. The Fed chair, sure. Maybe the New York Fed guy. Sure.

Kip Herriage [00:27:15]:
But everybody else, we shouldn’t even know their names. Right. So anyway, that’s, that’s my, that’s my point of view on what happened today in precious metals miners even as oil and race were sharply lower. And again, I do think that continues. I do think disinflation’s headed away. In case you’re new here, there’s one powerful reason for it. Well, first of all, Trump’s president, so yeah, we got a war here, but the only reason we got inflation is because oil prices are up. That’s, can’t you not look through? You know, it’s like, it’s crazy.

Kip Herriage [00:27:45]:
They can’t look through and see if the war is ending. Oil’s going back below 80 and probably in the next 30, 45 days. That’s my call. I think by year end, possibly below 70, but certainly that’s the direction. Right. And that means inflation is headed lower. But the biggest reason is the innovation revolution. Some call it the AI boom, what have you.

Kip Herriage [00:28:06]:
It’s because I call it the innovation revolution because it’s, it, it encompasses so much more than just AI. This is broad based, it’s pervasive throughout every industry. And what does innovation do is besides make our lives a lot better, more interesting, more fun, create more opportunities, what does innovation do? And by the way, there’ll be so many more jobs because of this than there were before. There’s never been a time in history, history has spoken on this, history is a hundred percent on this subject that innovation only does one thing, create more jobs and more opportunities. I’m not saying there might be, might not be some speed bumps again as, as some companies fire people, maybe, maybe some industries get weaker. We’ve seen that in software. But give it time, right, because the, the year over year trend is going to be for sharply more jobs, not fewer. Again, it’s a, it’s a repeating pattern that’s got a hundred percent success rate going back throughout history.

Kip Herriage [00:29:07]:
Okay, but again, disinflation is the biggest out output from innovation, right? Bringing the prices down of everything. I’m not saying some things may not go up in price. We’re seeing that in energy right now because of data centers. So there’ll be areas that, that, that, that you do see some inflation. But by and large disinflation is going to be pervasive I think within a couple years, maybe three. But we’re on that trend where we’re going to have pure deflation and in none of These environments would interest rates go up. Right. So we’ll see what happens tomorrow with the, the PC price index.

Kip Herriage [00:29:43]:
And again, looking forward to the changes that WARS is going to bring to the Fed. Because look, somebody said today, hey, you know, Warsh is just one of however many people vote. What is the number, like 12 voting Fed members? I should know this. I’ve forgotten whatever the number is, Wash doesn’t want to be the one person that votes for a rate cut when nobody else is doing it. And I’m like, yeah, he does, because he wants to be the lone voice of reason. So when he’s proven right, he’s looked at as a genius. So yeah, he would love that opportunity. I know I would.

Kip Herriage [00:30:19]:
Right. If you’re confident in your call, you want to be the only guy that makes that prediction. Am I right? You know I’m right. So, gosh, I hope, I hope, I hope that he’s the lone voice voting for a rate cut. What is that coming up here in a couple of weeks. Right? It’ll be fun to watch. Okay. Oh, okay.

Kip Herriage [00:30:38]:
On the markets again, all time highs across the board today. Good to see first time this year. I wrote this this morning and it kind of popped in my head last night because I think this is what’s happening now. I think over the next two. We get about two weeks right through the SpaceX IP. I’m going to come back to in a minute. Minute. We get about two weeks to the SpaceX IPO.

Kip Herriage [00:30:58]:
I believe the markets are like likely to continue melting up into that ipo. Folks, this is a big deal. It’s a very, very big deal. And when the markets get fixated on one thing, the money starts pouring in. Everybody wants to be part of it. They’re so excited. Got to be part of it, right? Hold on one second. I take this.

Kip Herriage [00:31:20]:
Hey, I got about five minutes left. Okay. All right. My son needs to go to a meeting and I was calling, see, I was done with the podcast yet. That was Sam, by the way. So, yeah, I think the money is going to come flying in here. And again, that is, that’s super bullish for the market. And we’ve seen this in history.

Kip Herriage [00:31:41]:
This happened in.com. one big event makes people very fixated and very bullish. Everyone wants to be part of this. I think this melt up continues into the SpaceX IPO now, where we might maybe have a buy the rumor, sell the news event. Sure. You know, but what is that going to be? It will probably be up 10% from now to then. So let’s say we jump another 10%. Well, what does that mean? Maybe we give up 3% on the back end.

Kip Herriage [00:32:09]:
We’re still at 7% at the end of three weeks or so, so we’ll cross that bridge when we come to it. But again, I think it, I think that this market is going to keep going higher and I, I think the market rallies even on bad news tomorrow with respect to inflation again, because the smart money is looking through this, right? This is what this is truly transitory inflation. That’s what this is. Jay Powell, you know, he probably wishes he was still fetch here to call this transitory inflation, although he wouldn’t because Trump’s in power. There’s some really good data I wanted to share that we’ve been talking about the last couple of days and I want to hit this theme for a second. This is some of the most powerful analytics, right, that, that, that, that Ivory can remember seeing. And there’s been a lot, everybody is studying analytics now. You know, I, I, I don’t, I don’t know.

Kip Herriage [00:32:58]:
There are some things that I enter into my Grok machine, right. So I want to make sure, I think, I remember this is the case. But by and large I follow about 10 people that specialize in this, this is what they do and they become reliable sources. Right? And so it’s fantastic, you know, because, you know, in our business is not called theft, it’s called borrowing, you know, so I always try to give credit to the people that came up with this. This came from Charlie Biello who again does very good, very reliable work. Check this out. Since 1950, but we just finished, we’re in the middle of an eight week, 17% gain in the SP 500. Okay.

Kip Herriage [00:33:39]:
Now this has only happened like six times. Okay. Or maybe eight times. But the end result is pretty powerful. Following an eight week streak of gains in the SP 500 over the next year, the SPF 100 has been up an average of 27% over the next 12 months while being higher 94.7% of the time. That, that, that, that’s, that’s as good as it gets right there. That’s as good again as it gets. So I think if you’re bearish here at all time highs, if you’re bearish here with data like this, I’ll just say that we see, that we see things differently and I think that Michael Burry, there was a post about this today on social media that I, that I retweeted and with my, with my comments on it, I Think, Michael.

Kip Herriage [00:34:28]:
This guy posted, it said, wow, the Big Short was a good movie. It’s done more to cost investors money in the market than any movie ever. And it was such a great point. You know, again, I, I’ve talked about Burry a lot here because he did get a good call, a big call, right? He was wrong for two and a half years first, but he did stick with it. And again, they made a movie. Props all, full credit, Tamako Burry for that. Made him famous. Good for him.

Kip Herriage [00:34:53]:
Made it wealthy. Good for him. Not taking any of that way. But it’s what’s happened since. Because if you’re a perma, anything. Perma bull. Perma bear. He’s a perma bear.

Kip Herriage [00:35:03]:
You’re doing it wrong. That is not how the markets work. We have entered what we’ve called for four years, a generational bull market that will wind up being the strongest bull market in history. I think the data coming in is confirming that. I think our call has been right. I think our book, the Big Bribe is gonna. Who knows, maybe they’ll make a book about the Big Bribe for getting a few things right. Maybe getting them all right, we’ll see it.

Kip Herriage [00:35:28]:
Doubtful. Those kind of movies don’t really sell. Just see a whole movie with a guy pat himself on the back. I don’t know. That would be well received. But the point being this, this guy’s post today about Michael Burry costing people in a movie, costing people more investors more money than any movie ever is such a great point and it’s exactly true. We run into this daily and I’m sure there are a lot of you right now in this podcast. And again, I don’t mean to demean you.

Kip Herriage [00:35:53]:
I’m not talking dad, anybody, but this is a conversation that people need to have with themselves because if you’re still bearish because of something that happened in 2008 and because that same voice, Michael Burry, is making these kind of calls still today, which is still his prediction that a top, a dot com top is. Is here. I mean, he just said that a few days ago. Do you ever feel guilty, Michael Burry, that you have such a large audience of people listening to you? I, I don’t know. I’ve said it before. I don’t know how Perma bears get out of bed in the morning. I don’t know. I actually said this to a guy that’s on.

Kip Herriage [00:36:36]:
You know, I may, I may have heard his feelings because frankly, I don’t see him on TV anymore. But we used to follow each other on Twitter. He unfollowed me after I told him this, I won’t mention his name. And he said, I just got tired of DMing me all the time about how wrong I was going to be about my bullish scenario. And I just said, I won’t even say his first name. I just said, I have to ask you an honest question. You’ve been dead wrong now for two, three years, whatever the time frame was. Does it ever get hard for you to get out of bed in the morning knowing that you’re wrong and you’ve been wrong and that there are people on television that may be basing their investment decisions based on what you’re saying and you’ve led them so astray after that, the unfollow me.

Kip Herriage [00:37:21]:
Obviously that meant the DMs don’t come anymore. That’s the way it works on Twitter. And frankly I, now that I mentioned it, I have not seen this guy in, in the media in some time. So, you know, maybe it was wake up call for him, but I think that’s a question that Michael Burry should be asked in his next interview. And I’m sure his answer would be, well, I’m not their financial advisor or broker, right? I mean, I’m not either, I get it. But still, if you have a platform, you should try to do some good with it. Try to help people. And I don’t understand these perma bears.

Kip Herriage [00:37:51]:
I don’t know why they had still have followers. I don’t know why people aren’t just beating the shit out of them right on all of these platforms, giving them so much, such a hard time that it wakes them up. Maybe because Burry’s wrong. He’s been wrong, he continues to be wrong. And look, we’ve made some bold forecasts so far they’ve been good. If something changes, I’ll tell you what I’ll do. I’ll fess up to it. I’ll admit that I was wrong and I’ll take a fresh look at what’s happening.

Kip Herriage [00:38:17]:
But that’s not, that’s not today, it’s not tomorrow. Right? This is a bull market that is going to change lives. This is an innovation revolution that is going to. There, there, there’s been no better time to be an optimist. I’ve said this now for years. This is the, this is the best time to be an optimist in my lifetime. Because things are so good. Life is so good.

Kip Herriage [00:38:39]:
Look, I know people struggle, I understand that. But life is great. And Big things are coming and it’s only going to get better. Final point that I’ll make today, wrote it this morning, is about Tesla. I think maybe I should. You know what, I’ll just make the point today. I do need to run and I’ll come back to tomorrow about the Tesla SpaceX merger. I do believe it’s going to happen.

Kip Herriage [00:39:03]:
I think it, it’s going to be a buyout state SpaceX is going to acquire Tesla. Right. Because that’s the only way Musk can control 85 of the voting power of the two companies in that ballpark. So that’s going to happen. I do think it’s going to happen prior to the 2020, probably next year I think because the election in 2028, if Trump loses, if something goes wrong, there’s no way Democrats who within control of the Department of Justice would allow this to go through. First of all they hate, they hate Musk and there would be real questions about anti competitiveness right. With the Trump administration. This is going to get the immediate pass, right? You are approved stamped on day one.

Kip Herriage [00:39:49]:
And so I do think it’s going to happen. I’m not a big fan of this. We’ve been Tesla shelters for a long time. I want to see them accomplish what they’ve set out to do with autonomous transportation, robotics, etc. AI but it’s going to happen and I think at the end of the day it’s going to be pretty cool knowing that we own the combination of Tesla and SpaceX. And I think it’s a real opportunity here to buy Tesla. I think it’s this, this opportunity is underestimated. I think the chart pattern looks extraordinary.

Kip Herriage [00:40:19]:
I wrote this up this morning. The, the chart pattern from the 2013 trading range to 2019, 2020 to today post the say 2020 is completely symmetrical. It’s a repeating pattern and when this breaks out, the last time it broke out, Tesla went up 700% in like a year. I don’t think we’re gonna get that this time. Much bigger company, but we’re going to get a massive move higher in Tesla. I think it’s, we’re on the doorstep of that now and looking very forward to it. Maybe I’ll come back tomorrow, talk a little bit about the reasons that I actually have come around a little bit and I think the combination will work and I think we’ll all want to be very happy for it. Okay, I’m going to go quickly here.

Kip Herriage [00:41:03]:
Internals today pretty flat. Vs decline flat for both NYC and Nasdaq slight positives for up volume 61.4%. Nasdaq NYC flat. We we did have again another back to back days with more than 400 stocks hanging near 50. Kai, the 52 week low. These are starting to add up and that’s that that’s bullish. Sector watch today quickly here. Five sectors higher, six lower again.

Kip Herriage [00:41:30]:
The NASDAQ today again just finished slightly higher but again still all time high in our commodity watch today. I just kind of covered that earlier again it was, it was a down day today. I cover the reasons why. I think we’re going to see the reverse of that tomorrow. Regardless of what the inflation data is. Gold and silver are and miners are really ready to go a lot higher. I think this is we’re entering the next big up phase for this group. Gold today down about 50 bucks.

Kip Herriage [00:41:59]:
Announced silver last trade 7,488. Crude oil as I mentioned earlier, yes, it is below 90. Last trade 89, 41. And finally Bitcoin tomorrow. Tyler’s traveling so I’ll be doing the podcast tomorrow. We’ll talk about bitcoin a little more. Just fell below 75,000. I think I know some of the reasons for this and I’m not concerned.

Kip Herriage [00:42:17]:
Remember, first in, first out, bitcoin was the first to bottom as the war started. Bottomed on the night of the war began and it’s still up quite a bit. I think we’re doing some backing and filling here and again I think it’s a great time to own bitcoin. All right folks, that’s it for today. Hope you had a great day meeting better night. We’ll see you back here again tomorrow after the close.