Welcome to the VRA Investing Podcast! In today’s episode, Kip Herriage breaks down an extraordinary end to the week on Wall Street. With the Dow Jones hitting the historic 50,000 mark and markets seeing impressive gains across t ...
Foreign don’t look back because the market is closed. Good Friday afternoon everyone. Kip Herods here with the daily viewing investing podcast. Hope you had a good day today. What a fun day today. Talk about a tale of two cities. From what happened earlier this week to today, Dow Jones for the first time hitting 50,000, closing up 1220 points today. You don’t see that a whole lot.
Very good to see. Of course, of course the semis today up over more than 5%. Great leadership, small caps, a group that we really like here, up 3.6% on the day. And look, small caps have led all year. There’s no reason to think that’s not going to continue to happen. It’s a broadening market. It’s a rotational market. It’s a market that’s being driven by global reflation trade.
I was on with Charles Payne today on Fox Business and the guest right before me, Nancy, I forget her last name, but she was talking about, she’s also very bullish talking about today’s anthropic moment. Of course anthropic has caused, you know, a lot of upheaval this week, making it look like these other AI programs are not gonna be able to compete. And Tyler, as Tyler said in his pockets yesterday, same thing Nancy said today, this is just like the deep seek moment. All right. Tyler covered this in detail and he nailed it. And it’ll soon be forgotten. I think it’s forgotten. I think, I think it’s officially forgotten.
I also say great, great job by Tyler on picking that up. The deep sea get anthropic comp comparison there also make make a prediction here. Within two weeks, very few people will be able to remember and be able to tell you exactly why this latest decline took place. I think today most people couldn’t really even tell you, right. It’s just we went from extreme robot, which is, you know, we took profits three weeks ago in our UTF positions, went from extreme robot. Market was too bullish. Everybody was bullish. There was some short term risk in the horizon.
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But there are right went from extreme Robot and it was time for a shakeout and the markets used this as an excuse. Of course we also had the reality that software stocks have been taken to the woodshed again. We saw that as completely overdone as we said yesterday when we added the VR portfolio as a three time leverage to technology position to the portfolio that was turned up to be pretty good timing that that was overdone. The software stocks IGV is the etf, of course hit Extreme oversold on steroids. That’s our most oversold designation. And from there the rubber band simply stretched too far. It’s time for at minimum a bounce back, move higher. The other big reason for the market dropping of course has really been about momentum stocks, hasn’t it? And that’s Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is the liquidity leader of momentum stocks. I think that’s something now that we can say without question is true. And you know, bitcoin just got way too oversold. It really frankly never should have happened. But you know, Snowballs build an 8 day collapse was underway because Bitcoin is no longer controlled by retail. Bitcoin is no longer controlled by people that actually use Bitcoin or maybe put it on a memory drive. Bitcoin is now controlled by paper. It’s now controlled by derivatives.
This is what happened to gold and silver and now it’s happening to Bitcoin or doubts happened to bitcoin. You know, everybody wanted Bitcoin to be accepted. Everybody wanted Bitcoin to have its own ETFs. Everyone wanted Bitcoin to be SEC approved. Well all those things have happened. As Charles Payton said today, everybody got their wish and you know, it’s almost a big buy. The rumor sell the news event, you know, we got a big move to all time high at 126. And then here came the shakeout again because derivatives now control bitcoin.
But that’s a two way street because these are not permanent shorts, right? These, these paper shorts have to be covered as well. And that’s what we wrote this morning that we expected and we did write this this morning that we expected a rip your face off short covering move higher. And that’s what we saw today with a, essentially a 12% move higher in Bitcoin from overnight lows. 60,000 last trade here, 70,177. So the worst is over again. I think in two weeks no one’s going to remember why this happened. I think buying Bitcoin here is going to prove to be a steal. Remember again we covered this this week in the VRA with Bitcoin dropping 66%.
This would get overnight lows from the high of 126 to 60. Bitcoin dropping 66% from the October November highs that just barely ranks in top, in the top five of declines that Bitcoin has had since we first recommended it. $2,000 in 2017. So this is not, it’s, it’s not the first time we’ve seen this movie. They’re never fun again. We’re long this time. We’ve traded bitcoin a couple times. Done pretty well in it.
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We’re long now from 101,000. So we’ve got losses about about 30, 30% or so. But, but you know, everything jumped today. Momentum led along with bitcoin. So I think that’s a, that’s a really good tell for us all to remember. And now bitcoin, the coast is not clear. Very clear about that. Bitcoin is still going to get back above the 200 day before we can give it a green light saying the coast is clear.
The coast is not clear. But are the lows in? Yeah, I believe, I believe. I think it’s a high confidence call that we’ve seen capitulation in bitcoin. I think we saw it overnight and then we saw this rally this morning. It took place and then once the market opened it was on. Right. Nasdaq up 496 again. Dow Jones up 1220s, 500 up 2%.
Rust 2000 again up 3.6%. Semis up 5.4%. So this is a, this is an impressive move. Higher and it’s backed up by the internals. Give you that right now. We won’t cover it later. We’ll do it right now. A little bit of order today.
NYSE and Nasdaq Both better than 4 to 1 advance decline. You don’t see that a whole lot. That’s a very good number. Also today, volume for both NYSE and Nasdaq both better than 80% of volume days. We get another one of these on Monday and I think it’s very possible again we’re coming in, you know, again we started buying again yesterday. We’re buyers and we’d love to get a lower. A lower open on Monday would be, I’m telling you, would be a gift. That’s my view right now.
Unless something goofy happens, a lower open would be a gift. I think the, I think the lows are in here, folks. This rotational theme is powerful. As Tyler started covering on Tuesday, you know, when you see the equal weighted S&P 500 at an all time high as momentum stocks are falling apart, it tells you that the broad market just doesn’t care that much now. Yeah, yesterday was a little ugly, right? But that looked like now the last couple of days were capitulation events finding a bottom and that’s what happened here. So grid internals, we also had about 400 more stocks hitting a 52 week high to hitting a 52 week low. Very, very good. There’s 697 stocks hitting a new 52 week high today.
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Get Dow Jones 50,000. Congratulations. I’ll just repeat what I said on Charles’s show today. The first time I was on his show just about three years ago, the Dow Jones was just crossing 30,000. Well we had made our forecasted about Dow Jones 26,000 that the Dow was going to 100,000 by about 2030. Right. And now we’re at 50. So I like being on the show shows for those, those big, those big round number days eternals, great leadership.
Just as you want to see semis leading higher and I think again an important theme to remember because this has worked really well for us in making sense of all this. Yes, it’s a rotational theme but we’re going to continue to get primary versus counter trend moves and that is what we’ve seen here. These counter trend moves are temporary, they’re short term in nature but they can be scary. And certainly this one was, was one again. But the prime primary trend is what matters. The primary trend is higher and the primary trend will continue continues to control the market. Because this is a structural bull market of size and scope. The most powerful markets are structural and that’s what this is.
Again for all the reasons we’ve talked about with you for three years now, they all remain in place. They, this bull market is still early and it’s going much higher. Same thing happened of course in gold and silver today. Both hit sharply. Gold silver hit a low this morning of 60 bucks. 60, 61 bucks an ounce right now. Now is much higher today. Might as well cover that now as well again a little bit.
I order today. Yeah, gold 4984. The low was 4671. So again sharp losses overnight. It looks like it could be ugly. And then here came the buyers. Gold finishing up 95 bucks an ounce of the day. That’s 1.94%.
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Silver had been again a low today in futures trading of $61 an ounce. Last trade 7747. They’re now backing and filling. This is a normal process. It’s been a, you know, in today’s world where communication is instantaneous, we get these moves far faster than we’ve ever gotten before. Bear markets no longer last six months, 12 months, 14. I, I, I, my career, I grew up with long term bear markets. We, we don’t really get those in 2022 was a bad year of course, but we don’t really get Those anymore.
Now there are 4, 5, 6 weak bear markets, right? And so I think, I think that’s a gift. Frankly I’d rather get it over with quick instead of Chinese water torture. But that’s what happened in gold. You know, we hit a high of 5600 plus a low of 4400. Now getting back to 4900. Again the lows are in for gold and silver. You can confidently buy these now we believe and that really applies to the mining stocks because the key thing here, I think, I don’t think enough people understand this with gold and silver at these prices, especially gold, again we own gold miners. These, these junior miners actually all miners are trading at near historic lows compared to where gold is and compared to where mining costs are.
And the, the, the, the, the math simply hasn’t caught up, the markets simply haven’t caught up or investors simply haven’t caught it up yet to the valuation metrics and where these miners should be. And so some of these junior miners, again if you have 3,4 million ounces or more of gold in the ground, take a very close look at those. As long as they’ve got good management teams, low debt levels and again again a good prospect that’s got near term production possibilities. You know these stocks are going to go a lot higher. This is folks, this is just very early, it’s very early everywhere. These are, these are young bull markets we’re talking about. And again this is an asset driven, inflationary driven bull market that’s going to continue for several years to come. What else today? All right, we’ll keep this a little brief today.
How about that? I’ve already covered the internals. We covered commodities. Look at sector watch today. First of all commodities, copper today up 1.1% back to 588 a pound. Crude oil today flat on the day, 6349 a barrel and again Bitcoin last trade 70,292. Finally on the day before I let you go for the weekend, our sector watch also incredibly strong today. Nine sectors higher, two finished lower, frankly communication services lower because of Amazon. All right, Amazon after what were very good earnings and unbelievable CAPEX again $200 billion in CAPEX for, for this year from Amazon.
Stock was still down 5.5%. Again total CAPEX now for this year 700 billion just from our largest tech companies. It’s extraordinary. And I’ll wrap with this note. Unless the world’s biggest and smartest big brain tech companies, right, the ones that frankly can see the future. I think there’s some truth to that. Unless they’re all making company derailing to maybe company killing mistakes with these capex expenditures, it tells them that they know the future. They know earnings are going to explode higher because the minute they start reducing capex, some people think that’ll be a negative.
It won’t. The moment they stop reducing capex, the earnings growth is going to explode higher. That’s why this bull market is so young in these stocks and that’s why these shakeouts we have, as Tyler said, these deep seeking anthropic moments. That’s why these are a gift. That’s. And again, as I told Charles today, you know, we may have taken some profits a couple weeks ago. We’re getting right back in now and again. That’s because we use leverage ETFs.
You got to be a little nimble with these, right? But the place to be is still in growth, specifically in tech, in semis, yes, Bitcoin. That’s the future. This is where the majority of growth is going to come from and that’s where we want to be positioned and then trade around that as possible, of course, keeping our long term growth stocks in place. Okay folks, that’s it for the day. Hope you had a great day. Hope you have an even better weekend. We’ll see back here again Monday after the close.
In today’s episode, Kip dives into a jam-packed discussion on the current state of the markets, the ongoing geopolitical tensions influencing oil prices, and why he believes we're witnessing the start of a generational bull market. After a strong close in the markets—with all major indices up and the VIX continuing its downward slide—Kip shares his perspective on why the relentless negativity from mainstream media, especially surrounding the US-Iran conflict, is actually a bullish signal for investors. He highlights the resilience of key sectors like semiconductors and technology, breaks down the momentum behind Bitcoin and emerging cryptos such as TAO, and explains why recent market dips are a gift for those with a long-term and optimistic outlook. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.
Welcome back to the VRA Investing Podcast! On this episode, host Kip Herriage dives into what’s been a challenging week for the markets, examining everything from geopolitical uncertainty and its impact on oil prices to the pulse of investor sentiment and Federal Reserve actions. Kip Herriage shares sharp insights on the recent correction in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, the effect of the ongoing war on global markets, and what history tells us about rates during wartime. You’ll hear why extreme fear among investors, record-level put buying, and oversold technical indicators might actually be setting the stage for a major market rebound.
In today's episode, Tyler Herriage breaks down another volatile day on Wall Street, offering his signature optimism even as markets face downward pressure. From big moves in oil and energy to the seasonal dynamics of this traditionally bullish period, you'll get a behind-the-scenes look at how headlines, and not fundamentals, are shaping investor sentiment. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.
In today's episode, Kip breaks down the day’s market moves and zeroes in on what’s driving investor sentiment right now. In this episode, Kip explores why oil and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remain at the heart of market volatility, sharing his thoughts on media narratives, the potential for lower oil prices, and the international power plays influencing the global economy. Kip also digs deep into the power of seasonality, noting that while the last few weeks have been muted, historical patterns point to a strong melt-up in March and April. He highlights the ongoing tech leadership especially from semiconductors and walks listeners through the crucial “first in, first out” indicator, which signals that a new rotation into tech, software, and Bitcoin is underway. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.
In today's episode, Tyler breaks down a wildly eventful start to the week in the markets, picking up where Kip left off with yesterday’s big reversal day. From the latest on the ongoing conflict in Iran and the impact of geopolitical headlines, to lessons learned about market psychology (including why you should never sell on a Monday), Tyler Herriage navigates through the market’s volatility and shares key themes like liquidity and optimism in the face of fear-driven narratives. Tune into today's podcast to learn more
