In today’s episode, Kip dives into the latest market action after a rough start to the week, highlighting the volatility and short-term shakeouts in stocks and bitcoin. He explores why these pullbacks are actually signs of a young and bullish market, shares his thoughts on the Federal Reserve’s direction with potential new leadership, and introduces a compelling theory about a long-term plan involving US Treasury bonds backed by gold, silver, and bitcoin. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.

Don’t look back to the market is closed. Good Monday after everyone. Kip Herriage here with the daily VRA Investing podcast. Hope you had a good day today. Not a great day in the markets. We had a good open today, then it just lost ground really. Kind of like what happened on Friday. Strength and then weakness.

Not really what you want to see, but again, and we’ll cover this in a moment, we’re extreme robot on stochastics and it’s pretty much across the board with all of our major indexes, including the market leading semis. Also, if you may have noticed, bitcoin is once again leading lower. I’m going to talk about that a little bit, what that pretends and what’s happening with MSTR or Michael Saylor’s company strategy, which is a, I think a very interesting story and it might be the, the dominant theme here and why, why bitcoin’s going lower. I, I really think it is. I think they want to break them and I don’t think you’re going to be able to do it. I’ll cover that more in just a moment. Seasonality is very bullish starting tomorrow. Today’s the last day of negative seasonality.

[00:01:01]:
And then tomorrow to really get really honestly, it’s to year end. But frankly, I think this is going to continue into the new year. It’s just a lot of strength here. We’ll talk about that. And while we remain so bullish, although again, we are overbought in the short term, the best way to solve that is to have a shakeout. And Friday it may have started again. Today we saw more of it. And I’ll tell you what we learned about this bull market.

We know this is again, how early we know we are in this bull market. All it takes is a few days of a shakeout and all of a sudden the war rewards the fear mongers, right? The doomsayers. They come out in droves. And we see it in the sentiment surveys. We see it in just a matter of days. Folks, that is not the personality, the character of a bull market that’s long in the tooth. That’s the characteristic of a bull market that is very, very young. That is what we’re seeing here.

Again, these shakeouts are extraordinarily bullish and they have been for a long time. Of course, we don’t really want to see one here. We want to have a great Christmas, don’t we? We want to have. Look, Jay Powell got out of our way. Jay Powell decided not to crash another Christmas and of the two pals, Jekyll and Hyde, which ones? And I, I guess Jekyll’s the good one. We got Jekyll at, at the last week’s TED meeting. And of course the markets responded well to it because he just came across like a normal person, like a, a common sense Federal Reserve chairman. And I, I think we know.

[00:02:28]:
Why don’t we. The jig is up. He knows his, he knows his. He knows this run is over. Jay Powell knows that he’s a lame duck. So what’s the point? Right? Uh, he served his masters well, according to them, not to us. And so he wants to go out as much of a high note as possible. And that’s what.

The market’s going higher. So again, and I think again, that’s, that’s another big part of this theme is that rates will continue lower whether it’s Kevin Hassett or Kevin Wash. And that’s it. Now, Kevin Walsh apparently is the front runner by a small amount or Kevin Hassett. I think at the end of the day, I frankly think it’s going to matter. I think we’re going to get a Federal Reserve chairman that is both respected and that is transformative, which is exactly what this Federal Reserve needs. And as I wrote this morning, and I really do believe this, I’m hearing whispers about this. You may have.

Well, as well. But my spotty senses tell me. And this is important, I really believe this is important. It helps to explain why gold is going up and I think it also helps to explain why the markets are starting to levitate. Because I think that Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant and his new Fed chair, whoever that may be. I think they have, I think they’re working on a master plan. And I think that master plan is going to involve a long term Treasury. Treasury issuance of or multiple of them.

[00:03:52]:
Okay. Long term treasury bond issuances over many years that are going to have extraordinarily low interest rates of like 2%, but they’ll be semi backed by a basket of gold, silver, bitcoin, who else? Who knows what they’re going to put in there? Okay. Um, but I think that’s what’s going to happen here. Trump, Trump says this a lot and he’s exactly right. No one can argue with the, with what the. Trump, that, the, the point that Trump makes here on this. Trump says the United States debt should have the, should be the lowest yielding debt on the planet. And I’m gonna tell you something again, I’ve done this a long Time.

So I, I don’t have a lot of patience for idiots. I just don’t. If you’re listening, if you hear somebody goes, U. S. Debt is gonna. Oh, we’re, we’re, we’re, we’re. Is it us debt’s going to, it’s going to implode? Because again, for our newer listeners here, I’ve only heard that since my first two to three months in the business in 1985. Then I started at a bond house called Underwood New House here in Houston.

I was a. Yes, I was a municipal bond salesperson. That’s how I got cut my teeth in debt and realized very quickly it was way too boring. And I liked the excitement of equities, but I learned the debt markets pretty well. And I can tell you that the perma bears that I worked with at Underwood Newhouse, bunch of older guys, I’m their age now. I mean, what am I talking about? They were 60, 70, I’m 63. And they were all very bearish. And guess what they’re all saying.

[00:05:34]:
And because they’re all saying the same thing, our level of debt and again, our national debt then was. What was it? Seriously, what was it, 100 billion or something? I. Our debt levels are going to crash the entire system. So I’ve heard that since 1985. And when people say it, they sound real smart. They do, they sound smart. They make a very strong case. On the surface, it does seem to make sense, but they’ve been wrong every year I’ve been in the business, and they will continue to be wrong.

These perma bears that want to scaremonger people into thinking that our debt market’s going to crash are just. They could not be more wrong. Could not be more wrong. Here’s how I know that with certainty, with absolute certainty. Two reasons. First, the US Dollar is the world’s reserve currency. We could just print as much of it as we need to to pay back our debt in a worst case scenario. And who’s going to stop us? No one.

Literally no. One second, let’s take a look at if we want to talk about debt levels that concern us. Yeah, we got 37 trillion. Is that a good number? No, it’s not a good number, but it’s largely irrelevant. Again, when you have the world’s reserve currency, government debt is an illusion. I used to say largely an illusion. Let’s do. It’s an illusion.

[00:06:58]:
It absolutely is an illusion. And here’s why. Here’s why more than anything else, when people complain about our debt Levels. Again, I’m not saying it’s a good thing, but I am saying it’s irrelevant for you. It just is. Here’s why they never mentioned the flip side to that coin. The flip side of that coin is, oh, but wait a minute. The world’s second largest economy, China, has debt.

Our debt to GDP is 121%. Right? 121%. That’s, that’s, that’s 37 trillion divided into our GDP. So 121%. However, China’s debt to GDP is over 300%, folks. That’s if you trust their numbers. Who does? I don’t. Tyler and I just had this conversation.

China is a communist empire. It is a paper tiger. If the United States wanted to crash, especially with Trump, if Trump investment, who again, I got to repeat this. I’m going to take, and I don’t care what people call me. People call me all kind of names with Trump, you know that I won’t repeat here, right? Basically that I’ll, I’ll, I’ll accept anything Trump says. That’s not me. If you know me, you know that’s not true. But I will.

[00:08:20]:
When it comes to the economy and when it comes to the free market system and the way it works, I will take the word, combined word of Trump and Bessant 100 times out of a hundred over. You name anybody, especially any talking head on TV that likes to fear monger. Okay? But if they wanted to, in about six months, they could completely crash the entire Chinese economy. It is a total paper tiger supported only by the Chinese government. Yeah, they got a huge population. Yes, that’s a powerful asset, but they don’t use it as an asset. They use it as control. You can crash that system in a hurry by crashing their currency and you watch the whole thing go up in flames.

That, I’m not saying that’s going to happen. I don’t, I don’t want, want them to do that. And I don’t think they want to do that. That wouldn’t help anything in a global economy. It might do away with your enemy. But I, I have another conversation. I, I could go down. People that think China’s a threat just do not know what they’re talking about.

China is not a threat. Militarily, China’s not a threat economically. If anything, they’re an asset. Okay, maybe, maybe another podcast I’ll get into. In fact, I think it’s fun conversation, but again, I just don’t buy into any of the Chinese fear mongering. Okay. Although I will say if you’ve been to China, I have to say this. Chinese people don’t like Americans.

[00:09:50]:
And I’m talking about, I’m talking about mainland Chinese people. When I was there and I spent about 10 days there, not as. I didn’t even notice a single Chinese person. Besides the, the work, you know, that’s, the, the people that’s in the service community. I didn’t notice a single Chinese person that even noticed I was there. I don’t, they don’t like China, they don’t like Americans. It’s, it’s, it’s, it’s an, I’m sure it’s, it’s a national pride thing, but that, that, I think that is a hard reality. But I also don’t think that they’re, they’re, I don’t think they’re a big enemy to us Anyway.

Back to everyone saying that our debt’s going to crash and take everything down. It’s not. Again, China’s debt to GDP over 300% if you trust their data. Who does? No one. Japan, the third largest economy. Debt to GDP is over 250%. Again, we’re 121. So when I see our debt skyrocketing higher, there’s a part of me that gets that we’re, we’re playing catch up.

That’s, that’s, this is per, this is not an accident. This is by design. We’re playing catch up. We need to spend that money on things to grow our society. And I believe that that is what’s happening here. Which is why I’ve never seen it as liability. It’s just not, it’s just not a liability. I’ll have this debate with anybody.

[00:11:17]:
And I’m going to tell you I will win this debate with every single person, regardless who you put in front of me. Because they don’t have any proof. They have no proof that debt of $37 trillion is an actual negative for our economy. Especially if my earlier point comes true. And this is where the, the whole thing becomes, goes full circle. If I’m right and I’m not making this up again, we’re hearing, we’re hearing rumors and whispers from people that matter. We happen to have a few of those contacts. And if what I said earlier and what we’ve been writing in our very letters pans out that the US issues a somewhat backed long term treasury bond offer.

Again, not one, a series of them, this would be ongoing to retire all old debt at let’s say 4% yields or 3% yields. Again, most of it’s very short term paper now. Right. Whatever the average yield would be replace that debt with 2% debt and then every bond issuance going forward would be at 2% or less. And if you’re like a lot of people that make more sense than anybody else, then you know that rates are only going to continue to fall. I’m talking about 2% being the starting point for this treasury, treasury bond backed offer or offers. This would be the starting point because one of the great things about innovation is that it forces inflation lower. We’re going to have disinflation.

We’ll have disinflation for the remainder of this decade. And by that I mean the next 10 years. I don’t mean just a 20, 30. Disinflation is the new theme that means race not will, but must go lower. And the only people, the only people that have even a semblance of an argument on this that are saying rates are going higher because the US Debt represents some kind of a risk. It’s where the United States. No, no, it doesn’t represent a risk. Trump is right.

[00:13:25]:
Our interest rates should be lower than any other country on the planet, period. And once they put this game plan in place, and I’m telling you, I do believe it’s coming, you’re going to see an overnight transformation, literally an overnight transformation in our debt markets, in our currency markets and in the way the United States is perceived. And when people realize what this means for the economy and for the equity markets, you’re going to see melt up ville. Because none of the models being used today by our talking heads and the so called, you know, PhD economists out there, none of their models include what I just said. So I’m going to repeat what Todd and I have been saying now for three years. You’re not bullish enough. In no way, shape or form are you bullish enough because this is what’s coming. Hey, if we’re wrong, I have no problem admitting it.

But these are megatrends. This is exact. Doesn’t this sound like exactly the kind of thing trend Trump and Bessel would do? They’ve actually had this conversation, right? They’ve actually had. Around the, you know, around the edges, they’ve had this conversation. It’s not a big giant leap to see that that’s where we’re going to go. And again, because we are the United States of America, there’s no one that would stop us from pulling this off. Matter of fact, every country would try to emulate this approach and fine, go do it right. Everyone loves to copy us anyway.

They should do this. And now let’s come back to our conversations about gold and silver. Yes. And bitcoin, which by the way, we’ll talk about more in a moment. Our price target on Gold is $15,000 an ounce. No one in America has been more bullish than me on gold and silver since 2003 when I started the VRA and the second ever VRA letter I recommended gold and silver. And GDX didn’t exist then. That didn’t come until 2005.

[00:15:30]:
But we recommended Newmont. It was our first money stock recommendation. We’ve done very well in this group. No one in America’s been more bullish. I don’t know that anyone’s made more money in this group than we have because we’ve, we just haven’t lost money. It’s like everything we’ve done in this group has been I think we’re 100. I really do. I think we’re 100, I think we’re 100 profitable.

At every miner we bought. I know we’re 100% profit on gold and silver. They keep hitting all time highs. We’re up over a thousand percent in both. What do you think gold is going to do? What do you think silver is going to do if I’m right, If we’re right about what we’re hearing? I don’t know that 15,000 is a big enough number. And again it’s bitcoin did it. Why can’t gold do that? I think people have this story wrong on gold and they’ve gotten so if you will beaten down from the manipulation that’s taking place in gold and silver over the years. Pure unadulterated manipulation by central banks and major money center banks, US and global.

That all of a sudden they look at, you know, they look at gold at, you know, 44, $4,300 an ounce and go, oh man, that’s your, that’s had a big move. That’s way too high. No, this is only getting started. These prices, let’s call it 64 silver, 4300 gold. These prices here should have been the prices 10 to 15, maybe 20 years ago. And if you know this market like I do, you know I’m right. They would, they, they have, they have just beaten the out of this group. Pure manipulation.

[00:17:18]:
If you’re new to us, then you haven’t maybe haven’t heard me talk about gata. I really need to write about them more. I Just don’t make time to write about GATA Gold Antitrust Action Committee and the founders. These are remarkable guys. They’re in the shadows. They’re not high profile guys. I don’t know why. They’re legends.

I’m thinking about putting a statue of them in my backyard. Maybe when gold hits $20,000 an ounce, I will. Because they’ll be the first ones to get credit for this happening by forcing the manipulators to come clean because of gata again, Gold Antitrust Action Committee and because the investigations and lawsuits that they did at great peril to themselves might add. Right. There are a lot of interesting stories there about bad things that really almost and did happen to them. Some of these members of this group, they weren’t the most popular kids in school. They were targeted. But they had success in the courts.

Remarkably, they were able to get some discovery to go through in a federal court case. And because of that, JP Morgan, led by still Jamie Dimon was CEO then. And they’re found guilty. Like they had to pay a penalty of like 900, the largest penalty in history besides Pfizer. $900 million fine. Federal Federal fine. A criminal, criminal conspiracy. Criminal court with penalties of more than $900 million for not just attempting to, but actively manipulating gold and silver.

[00:18:56]:
Silver lower for a very long time. I don’t have the exact date, but I’m close on this. That case was adjudicated in 2021. Take a look at a chart and see when gold started going higher. 2021amonth apart from when JP Morgan was found guilty or settled. I, you know, again, I don’t know that they. Look, I, I, I, I’ll go back and read up on, I just don’t want to state something incorrectly. I know that they paid the penalty.

I know that everyone knew they were guilty. Again, how, how they, how they worded it, but it was, it was a guilty plea. I mean, I’m certain of that. Anyway, I’ll freshen up, but I’m sure that’s true. But it was from that year and I believe that month that gold prices bottomed and we now have the bull market that we have now. I really didn’t plan to get on this topic, but again, you get me started on gold and silver and the miners and I literally could just talk about, I could just do it. I could do a two day podcast. It is just to have a lot of coffee and, and just go, go, go.

It’s, it’s a, especially now because this group remains so cheap again. We hear from a lot of people that go God man you sure about this? Gold’s already already run a bunch now service at all time highs. And I mean I’m like look at these chart patterns. They’ve just now broken out. What are you talking about? This is the beginning of the move. The beginning and understand this. When the miners keep going this is why we’re going to make some so much money in these. Junior we’ve already done pretty well right up 230% in one 600% another this move is again only getting started and I know that because I know this group and I know when these group, this group gets going they run hard for two to three years.

[00:20:45]:
I would expect that at minimum here. So I think you know again GDX Gold miner ETF Gold miners period will be the number one performing group this year. That was our forecast that’s playing out. We made that forecast in January also said that Tesla would hit 500 hit 41 today. Again we made, we made these calls when they weren’t very popular and and they’re, they’re turning out to be pretty true. But the gold miners will be up like 150% this year. 145% right now is where they are. And this, but this is just year one.

So just understand that. And I’m just very, I’m very happy for a lot of people that, that now I call them the, the silent millionaires people that just kept stacking gold, stacking silver all these years because they knew. Let me just say we knew because I’m one of those people. We knew. We knew this day would come. And again it’s not because we’re facing a systemic global financial crisis that that’s not. Maybe, maybe we’re going to in 10 years. Maybe this is the preface to that.

I don’t know that. I just know that the reason they’re going up now is because something else is going on. Like they’re going to be used to back long term treasury bond all offerings and because the manipulation is no longer in place. So look this isn’t every. It isn’t everything bull market. It’s. It’s everything that’s inflationary related. Inflation related.

[00:22:29]:
In other words the money printer can’t stop. It’s just not going. It can’t and it won’t. It’s not going to stop. And now we’ve reached as we wrote about it in the big bribe we’ve all the planets are aligned here. We have the right president at the right Time. We have again, our big three. For our new folks here, our big three remain.

And I, I, again, I, I think, I think this is exactly what’s happening here, folks, our big three. The reasons this is a structurally bullish bull market that is in its infancy is that we have the Trump economic miracle. People still, chuck, kind of snicker at me when I say that. You know, they kind of give me a side eye, you know, and I catch it every time, but not like they used to. It used to, it used to be just open mouthing. What, what do you, what? Trump? What? And now it’s kind of just a little bit of a side eye. But they’re coming around. They’re coming around.

The good thing is we have it documented, right? It’s, it’s in, it’s in our book and it’s in a whole lot of VRA letters, podcast, blogs, everything. GDP growth is going to surpass 8% in 2028, I think, I think by 2028. So two years, number one. Number two, the innovation revolution. Again, most, most people don’t call it that. You write, you’re like, what is that? Or do you mean the AI Boom Kip? Not me. No, I don’t mean that. I mean the innovation revolution.

[00:24:02]:
Because this is about so much more, so much more than just AI. We have innovation taking place in every industry. And one of my favorite topics I won’t spend a lot of time on today, but we have new technologies coming that we don’t even know what they are yet. And if you like science fiction like I do, Tyler does. You know, probably most of you listening here, you’re fascinated by what can be, what might happen, right? Just remember the time you got sent or got your first email with an attachment, right? Like, wait, you’re telling me that I can now receive emails with documents? I click on that little thing and the documents open up. Wait, are you saying my fax machine is irrelevant now? Yep, that’s what we’re saying. You know, Paul Krugman didn’t want to hear that. Nobel Prize winning New York Times PhD Whatever he is, right? Paul Krugman.

Talk about a moron. My God, he’s made some of the worst calls possible. But again, the state puts the deep state puts people in positions of power that they want in those positions of power, easily controllable buffoons, essentially. But they’re there to say what they want them to say. That that’s if you’re wondering how do people get as the whole climate change nonsense get started, right? All of this stuff Paul grubbing for don’t know. Paul Grubman said a long time ago, said yeah one of the fax machine is going to make people more money than the Internet which we call the world Wide web at that point. I mean you got to be a special kind of dumb to say that, right? But again, like, like the email, like the, the invention of email, what is it going to be? Because I don’t think it’s going to be just one thing and I think that one invention that’s coming, I could guess we wrote a book about it. We have some pretty good guesses in there and I think it’s going to have life altering ramifications for it of the really good kind.

Okay, so that’s our future. You know, it’s the, it’s the Jetsons come to life. The you know, science fiction, we’re living in it now and again it’s just the reason it matters for the markets is of course it’s going to drive massive productivity and profitability and again innovation and that forces rates down, that gives you disinflation. Again, all of this is setting us up for a massive economic boom time. And third, we have an absolute ocean liquidity. Right? We cover this with you. We’ve been covered this here for three years. Almost nobody else has.

[00:26:45]:
Again for our new folks to do it quickly. 22 trillion and only in US into your money supply. Almost 8 trillion now in US money market accounts. People are still afraid, they’re still packing money into money markets, right? Wait till that money starts coming into equities. 30, what is it? 37. I think Tyler took $37 trillion in home equity average home equity 70%. 40% of Americans have no mortgage to pay off their home. Again, these are all, all time highs.

Right? So we’re saying absolute ocean liquidity. By the way, it’s not just us, it’s global. That’s what we’re talking about. And again this is one of my pet peeves when again we found all this right in the book and we’re like why is no one talking about this? This is the thing that drives me absolutely crazy when we have verifiable fact yet you don’t hear it talked about in the mainstream media at all. I remember the first time went on Charles pain show. I was talking about this information, the ocean of liquidity. And you should have seen Charles reactions like wait what? Are you sure about that? I’ve not heard this before. Charles, we just wrote the book.

The reason you had me on the show today. This is all in the book. And then again, you know, thankfully he’s now had me on you know, a couple times a month for the last three years because of that. But no one’s talking still to this day. Very few are talking about it. But these are the big three driving everything and they will continue to. Yes, in the very short term we are extreme overbought. All right.

[00:28:22]:
We told you some Friday on stochastics, our shortest term momentum oscillator on every major index including market leading semis, we are extreme of a bot. Now the good news is that’s a short term indicator for us. Our other momentum oscillators are really nowhere near extreme overbought. This is very common setup when you have a, from, from November 21st. Bottom it’s been pretty much melted fill, right? It’s been, it’s been, it’s been one way street boop, straight up. And so when you get overbought on stochastics, right, that rubber band stretches too far. What tends to happen usually is you have a short term shakeout or you’ll just have a pause. Markets may move sideways and just you know, jit around a little bit for a week or something.

And now all it does all of a sudden sarcastic go from you know, extremely robot. You look down and wow, they’re back to 65. That’s, that’s buy range, right? And so you know, we, again we, you know, we, those are proprietary for us. We don’t give away everything. And one of those things we don’t give away is when we actually want to buy on, on pullbacks and stochastics because it’s, it’s a very cool market timing indicator that we use here and we use it with our leveraged ETF program here, right. In case you’re wondering how we get these calls, right. Not that we get them all right, but we just made 41% and Foxel the three time leverage ETF in 11 actually was nine days. I’m counting weekends in 11 days.

41 and 11 CTF in, in really in nine days. And that’s how we did it. And by the way, frankly nothing would make me happier than to see this market semis maybe jitter out a little bit, you know, maybe drop a little lower, get a chance to buy that again for the melt up into year end and to first quarter of, of of January because this market is going to be a moonshot next year. But again, we’re over right now. That’s not a real concern. Goals overbought miners overbought silver. Silver’s extreme robot. Silver’s as is the most overall bought it’s been in a very long time.

[00:30:26]:
So, you know, again, a little shake out here would be healthy and it would be normal. And frankly, that’s probably going to happen at some point. But again, silver is going parabolic. So who knows? I mean, this is a, this is a long term, long term. I like a cup and handle at least a rounded bottom. I mean, we’re talking about a decade, longer even. And so this is the beginning of those bull markets and very, very good. Again, I’m so happy for so many of you.

And I know you. You’ve been stacking gold and stacking silver quietly. Don’t brag about it. You don’t put on social media. Maybe you tell your wife, maybe you don’t. Maybe it’s just your secret. But you’ve got a place that you stack it and maybe it’s someone who you’ll store as gold storage for you. You know, maybe a safe deposit box.

Maybe you’ve got your own safe somewhere. Maybe bury it in your backyard because it doesn’t show up on a metal detector. Maybe you’ve got your own system. Just do me a favor, keep it that way. You really don’t want people know where that is besides people in life that need to know. But I’m just so happy and I love these conversations with you because I have one about once every day, Rob, you’re on the phone and somebody goes, you know what? Between you and me, I’m one of those guys, I’m one of those girls. Yeah. Been stacking for 20 years.

[00:31:46]:
And it was kind of brutal. When bitcoin came along, we had to eat their dust because again, you know, bitcoin, you know, we’ve seen nothing like bitcoin’s move, right? But now it’s so great to see good people. You know, we’re talking about salt of the earth people that have been buying gold and silver for all of the right reasons and doing it for decades. And now you’re the silent millionaires again. No one’s ever going to know unless you tell them. And, and, and most of us that stack it, we don’t have an interest in telling anyone how much gold and silver we have. But I just think it’s fantastic. It’s the best of America.

And again, to all of you that have been doing this, regardless, the amount that you have, you gained, you’ve, you’ve earned it. Tip of the cap to you and it’s just getting started. That much I’m very, very confident. I don’t know that $15,000 an ounce is going to be high enough target. And again, depending on the timeframe, of course it won’t be as long as they don’t start manipulating again and again. Who knows? I mean you could always do it. But I think if we’re going to a back system of treasury bond offerings, whew, that means, that means not only the lows end, but we, we legitimately could have a bitcoin like move a parabolic like move higher because there’s only so much gold on the planet. Like, like, like all the gold on the planet would fill up an Olympic sized swimming pool.

That’s all that’s been found. It’s crazy, right? All right, so let me pick it up a little bit here. What else I want to talk about before I forget. I want to talk about a bitcoin and MSTR strategy. Okay. This is important. I’m seeing a lot of chatter about this, that what they want to do, they being, you know, the, who knows, right. The, the bad guys are the shorts or whoever, they think they can break Michael Saylor and mstr.

[00:33:36]:
Now to be clear, we’ve been huge bitcoin guys. If you know, we’re not classic crypto guys. We’re really not. We recognize value when we see it and we’re long term investors, which is why we recommended Bitcoin at 2000. We traded a couple times. We have gains of 2280% that’s in the bank. Done booked right. Since 2017.

Anyway, it’s been a great run. We’ve made some very calls there I feel like, and all, you know, in all modesty when we have, we’ve been good calls there. We’re long again now by the way. We’re underwater on that call, but we’re long. We’re confident with it here. A lot of chatter though that the, the shorts think they can break Michael Saylor and strategy. Now MSTR of course, is a simple watcher. Everyone listening this knows the story.

They just stack bitcoins and they do it using financial engineering. Now when you say that the connotation is okay, that sounds like a clever way of saying they have exposure to downside. And can they be broken? I don’t think so. I don’t think they can. Here’s why. Now first of all, we’ve never recommended mstr. And the reason is, is that we’re purist, we’re bitcoin Purist. Right.

[00:34:48]:
It’s the one crypto we recommended until our new one, which is Tao. Right. But we didn’t recommend MSTR or buy it because it is a leverage play on bitcoin. We didn’t want that. Don’t. I don’t want. Bitcoin is already volatile enough. Why don’t leverage on it? That’s just our approach.

Again, everybody’s got, you know, their own interest in their own investment styles and, and goals. Right. So I don’t fault anyone for mstr. I mean, you’ve made a lot of money if you trade over the years, a lot of money. But that’s why we never did it. We just wanted to have bitcoin, pure bitcoin. But here’s the bottom line. MSTR is down 65% from its highs of this year.

It’s been brutal, but it hit much worse. Again, it’s because it’s a leverage plan, Bitcoin. But here’s the bottom line. Everybody knows that MSTR’s average Bitcoin price paid is just under 75,000. Right. And Bitcoin is 86 to right now. So some quick math. They’re only.

[00:36:01]:
They’re only up by about $11,000 per bitcoin on their average purchase. They have, by the way, $50 billion worth of Bitcoin. Stunning, isn’t it? What a story. But I think people that think they can short this and break Michael Saylor and strategy either don’t understand the story or they. Maybe this is nothing more than a great buying opportunity. Maybe they’re really not trying to crush it because Saylor has done a really, a magnificent job of structuring the debt that he has. All, almost all of it. I say almost all because early on they have some secured debt, I think that’s been paid off.

Now all their debt they have is unsecured convertible notes and a lot of it. Zero coupon. They’re not even paying interest on this thing. That’s what GameStop did Ryan Cohen with the debt that he took on. That’s what he’s done. They have like a, you know, what is it like $10 billion in debt, all convertible preferred, all zero interest. Right? They, they, it, it’s paid off on the back end, but they’ll never wind up making those payments. Right.

Again, no interest payments whatsoever. And that’s what Saylor has done with MSTR. So based on our work to crush, to crush MSTR, Bitcoin’s got to go to 22,000 because at some point they’ve got to start replacing that debt. And most of it’s not, doesn’t mature. 20, 30 or so. They got plenty of time. What I think instead, I think this is going to be another, a really big shakeout in bitcoin. And that didn’t make sense that it happened here because it typically happens when everybody and their mother’s bullish.

[00:37:48]:
Do you know anyone bearish on bitcoin? I don’t. I actually read about a guy today that, that, that, that, that’s, that’s, that’s few and far between and we, we all know that, you know, Mr. Market’s a son of a. And the one thing he loves to do is get everybody on one side of a trade and pull the, pull the rug. I’m not saying that’s happening here, but I’m saying I’ve seen this movie before and we need more people that are utterly bearish on bitcoin. So there you have it, right? I, I think, I think MSTR is gonna be fine. Tyler told me today, all time highs today. Banks, financials, consumer discretionary, all time high.

Of course, gold and silver right near all time high. There were some positives today. Not a great day. NASDAQ led lower down 6/10 of a percent. The semis had actually rallied midday. And we’re up, I believe they closed up. No, they, I’m sorry, they, they did, they did finish week down a half percent. Semi that this is something to pay attention to.

Right. We respect the markets. You got to tell both sides of the story. Semis led lower on Thursday and Friday, semis lower today. Nasdaq lower today. Again. These are, these are leading the S500 lower Bitcoin. So you know, these are, these are the liquidity led leaders that I think it makes sense to pay attention to.

[00:39:17]:
Not, not predicting that at all. Again, as I said a minute ago, we’re short term extreme or bought. Let’s shake out some of the bulls and then we can get on with our business to have a good Christmas rally, which again, we still, we still believe is going to take place. Put call ratio today elevated all day, closing at a point 89. That’s what you want to see. Anytime you get a put call ratio down like around 0.6, 0.7, you’re asking for trouble. But, but we don’t have that. I think if we were to have one more down day like, like today again, NASDAQ down 137.

If we were to have another down day tomorrow, I think you see the put call ratio get over one because again, that’s the pattern, right? And again, that’s how you know this is such a young bull market. It’s just not how mature bull markets. Excuse me, not how new bull markets act. This is, this is, this is how new bull markets act, not how mature bull markets at all. Right, what else today? I think it’s long enough podcast. Let’s get right to it. Internals today were, were not great. Not horrible either.

NYSE flat advanced decline. NASDAQ down 1.7 to 1. Volume 56.9 down volume on new NYSE NASDAQ 68.6 again no damage there. Really. We had 291 stocks at 50 high to 302 hit a 52 week low. We’ll call it a push there in our sector watch today, much better. We had eight sectors finished higher, three finished lower. Technology led the way.

[00:40:45]:
Lower down 1%. Healthcare up 1.2% to the upside. Pretty quiet elsewhere in our commodity wash today. Again gold’s been a heck of run. So silver, gold up six bucks today, 43 36. Silver again was up like three better than three percent today. Silver’s of course had a bit of serious tear. 64, 20 last trade.

But again it is trading at extreme overbought on steroids. It’s not a reason to sell, but it is a reason to stop buying. Again, that’s, that’s what our discipline would entail. And so that again we’ve been aggressively buying, we’ve been at buying more silver than we have gold. Now as you know, for the last couple months we’ve, we told you we believe silver is really going to take off. But it’s a good time to, to, to just have a little caution, have a little discipline right here, right now. What else today in our, oh, rest of commodity, sorry, uh, crude oil today uh, was uh, flat 50. Excuse me.

eDown 2%. 5647 copper today, uh, up uh, 30. Up 30. Up 3/10 of a percent at $5 and 41 cents a pound. Finally today, Bitcoin once again, 86,301. All right folks. Hey, always appreciate you listen, hope you had a great day, maybe a better night. We’ll see you back here again tomorrow after the close.